There are a lot of thoughts out there on when college football will return and how it might work. What's your prediction, and if different, what do you think makes sense?
When will college football return?
- Thread starter 425cougfan
- Start date
Kansas just announced a stage return to normal with most businesses allowed to open with social distancing but no "gatherings" of more than 10 people until May 15th. After May 15th, the number jumps to 30, after June 1st it goes to 90 people and then unlimited after June 15th. All assuming that we don't have serious increases in cases and deaths.
If a similar pattern plays out elsewhere.....we'll be ok?
If a similar pattern plays out elsewhere.....we'll be ok?
The Big 12 Commissioner just opined that football season will start on time but he fears that it won’t be completed due to a return of the pandemic sometime during the season. He’s not an infectious disease expert of course but his opinion is more likely to be correct than any wild guess I can come up with.
Shutting things down including the NCAA tournie was unprecedented but at the time there were models predicting 2 million deaths in the US at that time. I think we’ve seen the worst of it. There are developments with treatments, higher numbers of people than thought who have had the virus without symptoms and are now theoretically immune and I even heard yesterday Pfizer claims to have a vaccine that will be ready on a limited basis in the fall. Add in an election and I don’t know if it will be as easy to shut things down and don’t know if the American people will tolerate it. I know I sure as hell won’t but the Governor of Wa is getting re-elected despite what I think. I could see reduced seating capacity in the stadiums and face coverings/masks required but I think we’ll see OL Wazzu take the field in September and the season will continue, hopefully until the bowl games for the Cougs.
There is growing momentum for the season to begin on time. Plans could change if things get dramatically worse, but I suspect a start of the season by fall is the most likely scenario.
Good post NCW and a lot of reason for optimism with what you wrote.
Didn't know the governor wasn't a fan of college football, but hopefully he won't get in the way of Dr. Schultz, Mr. Chun and Coach Rolovich on this one.
Pretty sure he already has enough on his plate.
It all hinges on testing. Governors and local health authorities are not going to lift the lid until the testing reality matches Trump’s testing fantasy.
Right now, we’re not close. The rapid test machines that were being touted a few weeks ago have been distributed, but they were accompanied by only a couple dozen tests (as in 2-3 dozen). They’re useless at that level.
Right now, we’re not close. The rapid test machines that were being touted a few weeks ago have been distributed, but they were accompanied by only a couple dozen tests (as in 2-3 dozen). They’re useless at that level.
Seems to me that football season will have to involve empty or nearly empty stadiums. I don’t see how we will have sufficient testing or vaccine development and deployment by September to resolve the liability issues that would surely follow encouraging large crowds to gather. They would be putting ticket takers, security screeners, concessionaires and many other low paid employees at significant risk. Many would be likely to sue if they got sick. Fans wouldn’t be much better in that regard.
I do think that a TV only season is a possibility though. Might even be likely. I don’t think the NCAA and schools can really afford to give up any of their TV money so they will play if possible.
I do think that a TV only season is a possibility though. Might even be likely. I don’t think the NCAA and schools can really afford to give up any of their TV money so they will play if possible.
The SEC just dropped a not so subtle hint that they may play out their league schedule, regardless of what the other conferences (or the NCAA) chooses. They said they'd like it if the Pac12, Big10, Big12, and ACC were all playing as well, but that their decisions won't impact the SEC's decision.
You know what? If the SEC was the only league playing, they'd still draw over 50K fans/game.
You know what? If the SEC was the only league playing, they'd still draw over 50K fans/game.
It would be interesting for sure if the SEC parted ways with the NCAA. Then they could go ahead and pay their players openly. I really don’t see that happening but these are strange times - anything is possible.
Shoot, if they did that and none of the other conferences did, I would easily take a trip down there to catch some football in person.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
The CDC revised it's death count down, massively. 28k people who suddenly didn't die from covid. Someone is or was juicing the numbers. If the number was inflated by testing terminally ill patients (ie cancer patients) and adding them to the pile, college football is definitely back this fall.
The CDC revised it's death count down, massively. 28k people who suddenly didn't die from covid. Someone is or was juicing the numbers. If the number was inflated by testing terminally ill patients (ie cancer patients) and adding them to the pile, college football is definitely back this fall.
Well, I don’t think you have stumbled across a vast conspiracy. The numbers you are seeing reported in the media are from Johns Hopkins University and reflect the state by state numbers reported electronically to them on a daily basis. The numbers in the CDC database reflect completed and processed death certificates. There can be up to an 8 week lag between a death and when the completed certificate gets to the CDC. They even say so in the fine print following their table.
“Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.
*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.”
Or someone is minimizing the numbers. Since CDC is funded and staffed by a pathological liar who benefits from minimizing it, I’ll go with the Johns Hopkins numbers. Their data collection methods provide a much better real-time picture anyway. CDC is reporting what conditions were 2-3 weeks ago.
Seems to me the CDC and Johns Hopkins databases reflect very similar numbers. US COVID deaths seem to have plateaued at around 2000 a day. So if the CDC numbers are about 2 weeks behind, that’s about 28000 deaths they haven’t counted yet that Johns Hopkins has. So no conspiracies - just different ways of collecting data.
Also, I know it’s been a Fox News talking point that a person with cancer or heart failure or kidney failure or whatever should not be counted as a COVID death when they get COVID and then die. That makes no sense to me. Following that logic if the same person jumped off a building or got run over by a bus you would have to record their cause of death as cancer or heart failure or kidney failure. That’s not the way it’s done. So, there is no conspiracy there either. If a person dies earlier than they otherwise would have because they caught COVID, their cause of death will most likely be recorded as COVID. That’s completely consistent with the way a cause of death has always been determined and recorded.
Well, more time seems to support that the whole thing was a hoax (Trump never said it was, but this is too fun and easy not to point out). Antibody testing, now this.
I think the point there is that if a person is hit by a bus, he or she was out and about their business and his or her covid symptoms are not impacting their daily life. So, that person would count as a death when that person should count as asymptomatic. I have no idea how many people actually fall into that category. Not many obviously. It’s murky with cancer. If a cancer patient near the end dies from pneumonia, is that a cancer death or a pneumonia death?
It’s got to be a very small population of patients that are bedridden and right on the edge of dying from cancer when they contract COVID and die. The doctors filling out the death certificate could and likely do go either way on cause of death for that small group. The more common scenario is like Alex Trebek or Rush Limbaugh who have cancer they will likely die from but not right away. If they get COVID and die, it’s a pretty easy call to say they died of COVID.
If a person with COVID is out walking around and is killed by a bus, his or her death certificate would list trauma as the cause of death. It wouldn’t list COVID since that wouldn’t be what killed him. Why would you assume it would be any other way.
The “hoax” comment referred to the Dem’s claims that his response was inadequate - not to the virus itself. But he’s spent the last 3 months continuing to prove them right. I don’t understand how we’re the only industrialized country that can’t get widespread testing in place.
Oh, yeah...it’s because he doesn’t have financial interest in the testing companies, only in companies that make drugs that don’t work.
Because you used hit by a bus in your post above. Why did you use that as an example?
Why would someone use it as a cause of death? Case cases would likely mean more PPE. Maybe more funding. Stack the stats? Political agenda?
Apparently my point was missed. I said some on Fox News are apparently saying that every cancer patient who is expected to eventually die of cancer should have his or her cause of death listed as cancer whether or not they were hospitalized with COVID when they died. That makes about as much sense (meaning no sense) as it would to say that every cancer patient hit by a bus actually died of cancer not by trauma.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
The page that I linked.......also prepared by the CDC.......says it was updated May 3rd (Sunday) and has 65,735 deaths listed. Given the worldwide issues and the fact that I don't believe that the entire world would crater their economies just to punk Trump, I'm going to say that someone at NCHS is allowing themselves to be influenced by our dear leader's desire to pretend that the coronavirus has been inflated by the "libtards" to harm him.
What's really hilarious about this virus is watching the evolution of the excuses for why the virus is irrelevent/overblown:
Back in February...."it's only one death".
Mid March....."150 dead? A normal flu season kills 15,000!"
Early April......"15,000 dead? shoot, more than 58,000 Americans died in Vietnam and it's not that unusual for 60,000 Americans to do from the flu in a year!"
Late April......."60,000 dead? The numbers are fake!".
I know that people hate to be inconvenienced and I think that governments are guilty of over-reaching by stretching out the stay at home orders more than they should. Personally, it was my understanding that the stay-at-home orders were done in March/April to flatten the curve and allow the purchasing/production of masks and other PPE that could be used to slow the spread of the disease through the summer. That over-reach doesn't mean that the entire epidemic was fake and some of the revisionist history being put out there is a bit disturbing. Our dear leader was guilty of listening to his advisors that felt that they had a good plan for dealing with a viral outbreak when they had a crappy plan based on foreign supply chains that were too easy to interrupt. The plan also failed to identify the real world problem of people ignoring distancing rules in places like New York City where the rules were impossible to implement property compounded by the fact that the government lied to everyone about wearing face masks because they were worried that the already fragile supply of PPE would be obliterated by a run on masks.
Trump's problem is that he is always seeking the limelight and craves adulation, credit and respect for his great decisions and he put himself up front as the man with a plan. When that plan went to hell in a hand basket, he's spent the last six weeks doing his typical deflection and outright lying to avoid the fallout from the failure. By demanding credit, he failed to understand that it also requires the acceptance of responsibility. Something that he's never been willing to do.
I'm not sure how or why this is different, but CDC's "provisional" count says 38,576 as of today.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
The counts are different because one relies on current data provided informally on a daily basis. The other doesn’t count any death until they have an official death certificate in hand. That puts them a couple weeks behind on average. They are counting the same thing so in the end they will come up with essentially the same result.
The CDC is not determining the cause of death, they are just tabulating results. The cause of death is determined by an attending physician or the medical examiner.
Regardless of what count you are looking at now, even trumps “team” is increasing daily death projections now to 3K. We are gonna be well over 100K in no time with some areas reopening and all of the people still ignoring and showing up in large gatherings at church, protests, etc. I can only assume sarcasm with the hoax comment.
Now, whether or not you are on board with the “get to heard immunity ASAP and minimize economic damage” that’s an entirely different argument. We are only a few months into this with anywhere from 40K to 70K deaths in the US depending on who’s numbers you are looking at, with no vaccine likely till end of ‘21, and no national leadership in place for at least another 8 months. Best case, several hundred thousand are going to die in the US over the course of this thing.
The part that is highlighted in red above is the real quandary. Only fools thought that temporary social distancing was going to stop the virus. The whole point was to flatten the curve and allow everyone an opportunity to take a breath and prepare for the next phase. Herd immunity through exposure is an effective, although flawed, way to deal with a virus. Only around half of our country gets vaccinated against the flu in any given year but only 3% to 12% get sick from the flu.
It's always been about balancing the financial cost to our economy against the loss of life. The thing that's kind of sad is to see people lie to themselves and each other about the impacts of the virus so that they can feel better about people dying. It isn't helpful to be dishonest about how terrible it will be if 250,000 Americans die from this virus and to pretend that it will not happen. It might not happen, but that's kind of beyond the point. The sad truth is that regardless of how we feel about our fellow man, we can't bankrupt tens of millions of people to save a couple hundred thousand people. The social distancing and quarantines were established to limit the chances of that number climbing into the millions. We may get stuck again trying to decide if the slope of the curve is steepening to the point where action needs to be taken. Let's hope not. On average, 300-400 people die every day from Influenza in any given year.
If we can get to the point where coronavirus deaths are under a 1,000 per day, I think it is an issue of "sometimes it's your time to go". That sucks, but it's about the overall good at some point. My biggest frustration right now are the people insisting that they shouldn't be told to stay home but refuse to wear PPE when they are out in public. They aren't helping the situation by being rebels.
Yup. Shouldn’t be about politics should be about common sense. Too much of this has devolved into political gaming. Sad thing to see when people are losing their lives.
The CDC has predicted a daily national death rate of 3,000 in June. If this comes to pass then we can pretty much forget Fall football starting on time. Maybe we can start in October with a truncated schedule- no OOC games, conference games only. Playing a full schedule in the Spring doesn't do it for me for a number of reasons. But we have to have something football-wise for athletic department financial reasons or many schools will be so far into the red that they will be required to jettison many of the minor sports. How we accomplish this is unknown to me or anyone else at this time. Let me know when a cure and/or vaccine appears and we will have a better view of things.
They could still play in empty stadiums. Testing capacity should be rolling by then. Even in Washington Inslee has nonessential travel opening midsummer.
Testing capacity should be rolling by then? Yeah cuz they’ve done such a knock out job ramping up so far.
Do you have a reason to think testing will continue to lag behind your expectations for months?
I think there’s a lot of money to be made in testing, and so it will turn out just fine.
There’s a lot of money to be made in casinos too (well maybe not right now...)
Hope you’re right, I don’t see it happening in the midst of our daily carnival.
Like Warren Buffett says, never, ever bet against America.
