I'm saying there is a chance. I'm predicting a combination of run and pass in addition to a quarterback who may run or pass. A four year Jeremiah Masoli? Maybe the big O's worst nightmare.
Who thinks we can beat the U of O?
- Thread starter froropmkr72
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That is exactly who he reminds me of but he runs with footballs instead of laptops.
I think we have a shot. We aren't facing Chip Kelly Oregon here.
We've beaten them 4 out of the last 5, right? And I'm guessing in at least a couple of those wins we were serious underdogs given little chance of winning. The ducks do NOT like playing in Pullman, regardless of the time of year.
Hell yea we have a chance. A good one in my mind.
Hell yea we have a chance. A good one in my mind.
It should be 5 of last 5.
Oregon is where 4 stars go to play like 2 stars.
And cry at halftime.
Oregon and UCLA have some things in common. Not everything, but some things. An example is the idea that if you get recruited by either one and step onto the campus, you have now done all that you need to do. You are now guaranteed a life of privilege, swag, sorority girls, drugs, petty cash, booster goodies, soft academics (though that is not quite as cushy as 20 years ago) and a host of other things. You have achieved the pinnacle of your life. At UCLA, IMHO, that has resulted in a very soft culture that a string of coaches has been unable to change. Oregon is not as bad in that regard, but nobody could consider them to be hard nosed. I'll give you a comparison...if a group of Oregon linemen met a group of Utah linemen in a dark alley, which would you bet on? Probably not the Ducks. In the same way that genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration, maxing out your football capabilities is at least 90% perspiration...add in a little inspiration and a certain minimum athletic baseline. Having highly rated recruiting classes (an inexact science, at best) does not offset giving a lot more perspiration. Great teams (I think of Ohio State, or Alabama) have both perspiration and great recruits. Oregon has never struck me as having enough perspiration (or the right attitude) to reach their goals, regardless of their recruits. More than UCLA, perhaps, but that is a very low bar. And their coaching staff has some similarities. There is a reason why they never figured out how to stop the air raid, despite having 3 of our former coaches on their staff and a UW example to follow. They can be had.
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We lost on a last second field goal last year and they finished 11-2. You really think Vegas is that far off? I don’t know what the line now but it came out as Oregon -7.
I do. Need to win the turnover battle and keep their running game in check.
OSU scored 28 on us, so Oregon should score more than that. We scored 38 on OSU, so we should score less than that. Home field is of little value now. Is my logic flawed?
Can? Yes
Will? ehhh, we'll see. There's film on JDL now - I imagine he'll see a whole lot of blitzing/ zone blitz, which could be problematic. However, I think Rolo and crew come up with a good gameplan and keep it competitive, giving the Cougs a chance to win in the 4th.
Will? ehhh, we'll see. There's film on JDL now - I imagine he'll see a whole lot of blitzing/ zone blitz, which could be problematic. However, I think Rolo and crew come up with a good gameplan and keep it competitive, giving the Cougs a chance to win in the 4th.
How, your logic is as good as anyone else's. I'll start with your statement about turnovers. We have to have at worst a neutral turnover situation. And of course, not all turnovers count equally. The Hail Mary into the end zone to end the half that gets intercepted counts as no more than an incomplete pass. If the turnovers that matter happen to favor us, our chances go way up. Two rookie QB's make the turnover stakes a crap shoot. So that is something we need to favor us. And both QB's are relatively mobile, though I think we are a little ahead there. Fortunate, since option plays are a part of both team's playbook. I hope this is not the game where JdL gets a tough lesson on ball security, but that will play out one way or the other.
Unlike OSU, UO has not had any experience defending the R&S. That might need to figure into your logic. I personally consider the UO coaching staff to be somewhat lazy. Put a lazy staff up against an unusual offense and anything can happen. I was impressed with our run blocking last week. It will be interesting to see how that goes against Big Joe's young men and what ever scheme they use (because the D scheme is probably more important than the young men themselves; or at least equally important; the wrong scheme can set even a good DL up for failure).
Home field value will be far more weather related than crowd related this year. The low is supposed to be 32, with a high of about 40. That is more than 10F colder than Eugene. Our guys will be used to it, but that is not a huge difference. It would take a weather change to have snow, but a slick field is not out of the question. The air raid never fully capitalized on having a slick field, mostly because the run was off the table. I suspect that the R&S, with the WR's getting to adjust their route and the run threat holding LB's in place will benefit more from slick conditions...but that is just my supposition. That also might figure into your logic a little bit.
Finally, as you note, keeping their running game in check will be critical. I suspect that the team with the most effective run game will win. That does not necessarily mean the most run yards, but it does mean that the run game is working to keep drives alive. Which means not facing 3rd and long all day, which means that when you run on first or second down, you bring up a 3rd down that is manageable. I think the team that succeeds there will win the game.
It’s a collection of kids that chose a school because they wanna be famous and go to school in luxury. There is not one mother fuc&er at either of those schools that is a tough guy.
You have guys that would get in a fight at a bar and guys that won’t. Which would you pick first for a football game?
That type of logic is always flawed for a variety of reasons. One example is that JDL was making his first start as a true freshmen. WSU fans could argue that if we played OSU again this weekend, we'd score over 60 points now that he's experienced; especially if we had Borghi. OSU fans would argue that they were rusty in the first half, and that if we played them again, they'd score every time they had the ball, which would limit our possessions as a result.
Here's another good example of why that logic is flawed. WSU has been ultra-competitive with Oregon over the past 5-6 years. Oregon has beaten UW like 14 of the last 16 times they've played them. Given that, you would think that WSU would be very competitive with UW, right? Well, we know how that's gone.
College football is a real crapshoot, especially this season. Oregon didn't look great last weekend, and Stanford looked anemic. WSU looked great on offense given what we had to work with, but Oregon State has been remarkably bad defensively for a few years now. JDL was incredibly effective last weekend, particularly for a true freshmen making his first start; however now the Ducks have tape on him (and McIntyre). Would it be shocking to see them completely bottle them up? Nope. Could our defense get rolled by them? Yea. Could our offense expose their defense in ways that Stanford couldn't? Also yea.
Way too many variables to bet heavy on this one.
Yes. I’ll give you one quick example although there’s others that could be mentioned as well. OSU fumbled twice. Once at their own goal line on a QB sack. 9X out of 10 the defense is recovering that. Their Olineman happened to be standing there and fell on it. We recover that and score next play, blowout. The other fumble we had 2 guys jump on it and somehow didn’t manage to recover it. I think OSU had a little luck and still lost by 10, at home- game wasn’t as close as it seemed IMO.
Good points CP. My logic is certainly too simplified.
Of course, I'll be laughing if we win, say, 35-34 or something like that. I'll be laughing very hard. 😁
And the punter dropping the snap and somehow got a decent punt off with the opposite foot, and I believe we blocked one and they still got way more distance out of it.
I think we can and probably will. Orygon will be flat in Pullman because they are “supposed” to win, except someone forgot to tell Rolo and his well coached Cougs. I say Cougs win 31-24.
I hope you're right Earl, but I've seen the opposite happening this year in college football. With the absence of fans, it's the home teams that are coming out flat. The road team is stoked to be on a road trip after being on COVID lockdown for months, and they're sky high to play in the opposing teams empty stadium.
I do. We always play UO tough. 4-6 last ten and that's only because of a horrible kickoff last year. The improvement for deLaura between game 1 and game 2 will be immense. He had a great game - don't get me wrong - but it was his first against FBS speed and size. My only concern is the way he holds out that ball! Gonna get swiped.
As impressed with JDL as I was last week, I really think the Ducks are a very different opponent with plenty of weapons. Their D line is legit. They’re gonna send the house early and often and try to rattle the freshman. Huge test for JDL and McIntosh. We’ll keep it close in the first, but I just don’t see us hanging for the full 60. Our best shot is our receivers bailing us out, fingers crossed.
Note regarding the rush. OSU has their ears pinned back on those first couple of drives coming after him...Freshman QB thinking they’d get a mistake. As soon as he ripped off that run the enthusiasm from them to get upfield slowed WAY down. A QB with good pocket presence and running ability tends to do that. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the same thing with Oregon the first time JDL breaks the pocket and runs for a big gain.
Jimmy Lake said it would work....hey....don't we play them this year? What was always missing was a truly mobile quarterback and an offense that was prepared to also run the ball a great deal more if needed. There's gonna be those times when he drops back to throw and has a line that can give him a great deal of time. I hope this turns out as fun as the last game.
But you forgot that Jimmy Lake is the most brilliant human to ever walk the earth.
You wouldn't have to tell Mike Leach. Jimmy Lake practiced some type of voodoo.
That draw on 3rd and 10 that McIntosh almost took to the house was a thing of beauty.
Yes. Run on them. It’s amazing how well it works.
The delayed option hand off is a double edged sword. Yes, it freezes the LB's. It also keeps the D line from simply pinning back their ears and rushing the passer. And it preserves the run/pass option, while giving the play (and WR's) up to 2 seconds to develop. But it also keeps the QB from being able to stand ready to throw and read progressions, or make an immediate throw, and there is not a true pocket for the third and hopefully fourth second. The RB will have to pick up pass protection blocks on most plays, and be unable to flare out as a dump receiver. It can work well if your QB is a genuine run threat. Not so much if he is not. We have a reasonable mix of the right players to make it work at present. If we stay healthy, especially at QB and WR, we can make it work and be hard to stop. But we need the QB and most of the WR's to stay healthy, especially the QB, because what you lose in going to a less mobile QB is significant.
after watching stanford push them all over the field, with basically no QB, e have a good chance to win this game.
JDL runing the ball at times will keep their defense, which isn't the steel curtain, on their heels
A qb that can run the ball adds another dimension for the defense to defend. It opens up both the run game and pass game.
DCs in the PAC 12 will actually have to game plan and coach their kids for WSU now.
