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WSU has a better football team this year, the game is at home

CougEd

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we have a qb guiding us who should be the Heisman winner, we have a LB who should be an All American, and we are on a roll.

Our best weapon maybe Minshew and how he responds to these situations. He has only been around for a limited time so he doesn't internalize the lack of success we have had against the dawgs since Peterson has been there.

UW is going to run two TE's, and they will try to run the ball down our throat like OSU did. Even when we jumped out to 14 point lead, OSU is the one team that stuck to their game plan. I believe they had over 200 yards on us. Their offense may be their best defense. And that is how they will try to keep the score in the teens again,.

And we know what their defense will try to do. They are baiting us to run the ball. And doing so burns clock and is another way to keep the score down. It is such an interesting match up. Our oline is better than it was last year, and their d line is not as good. Our receivers have to hang on the ball this year, no dropped passes as that derailed us in 2013 and several other years.
 
Our receivers have to hang on the ball this year, no dropped passes as that derailed us in 2013 and several other years.
That'll be a challenge if the forecast holds up. 35-40 degrees and rain is a recipe for a slick ball.
 
I'm not seeing a lot of rain (currently) forecasted for Friday night.
Current Pullman forecast from National Weather Service for Friday & Friday night:

A slight chance of snow before 9am, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 9am and 10am, then rain after 10am. High near 43. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 9pm. Low around 29. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%
 
Current Pullman forecast from National Weather Service for Friday & Friday night:

A slight chance of snow before 9am, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 9am and 10am, then rain after 10am. High near 43. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 9pm. Low around 29. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%
That is what I've seen as well.

I'm not worried about balls being slick. The gloves that they wear take care of that for wideouts and I think Minshew will be fine. I am, however, worried about wind. Cold, wet, and windy won't be too fun for anyone. But mostly because it's going to make me more miserable:).
 
I think our oline will be the difference. They have only given up 9 sacks and UW only ranks 10th in the P-12 in sacks. With time to throw Minshew will pick them apart. There may be a lot of underneath stuff like against Cal and Colorado but a 12 play drive for a TD is just fine.
 
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What is there to worry about?

The UW has utterly owned three pretty good Coug teams the last three years.
They have played like its a rivalry game, we have not.
We don't match up with a two TE offense well.
We scored 54 pts total on the Petersen defense in 4 tries.
The Leach big game jinx.
Bad weather

My heart says that this year will be different, but a thought that last year too.

If there is reason for hope, it is:

Claeys: I don't know if he has the answer on defense, but Grinch certainly did not.
The UW can't pressure a QB with 3 and no one has pressured Minshew with 4.
We now have five receivers that can make you pay, that's five more than last year.
We have been getting better as the season has progressed, the same can't be said of last year or the year before that.
 
It's tough to know what metric to use when evaluating teams. On paper, WSU is better than UW without a doubt. Looking at common Pac-12 opponents, WSU was an average of 4 points per game better than UW when looking at scoring differential. The only game against a common opponent where UW clearly outperformed WSU was against Utah. We had to come from behind and they handled them easily (but early) in the season.

I'm liking our chances this year and this just feels like a year where we get the monkey off our back.
 
UW did not handle Utah easily. The Utes controlled a large part of that game, but they continually imploded in the red zone.

UW is a team on par with Oregon, Utah, Cal, and Stanford. We’re better than all of those teams, and the game is in Pullman. If we play well, I think we’ll win. But will we??
 
UW did not handle Utah easily. The Utes controlled a large part of that game, but they continually imploded in the red zone.

UW is a team on par with Oregon, Utah, Cal, and Stanford. We’re better than all of those teams, and the game is in Pullman. If we play well, I think we’ll win. But will we??
Great, Patrol is cautiously optimistic. We'll lose by 30
 
UW did not handle Utah easily. The Utes controlled a large part of that game, but they continually imploded in the red zone.

UW is a team on par with Oregon, Utah, Cal, and Stanford. We’re better than all of those teams, and the game is in Pullman. If we play well, I think we’ll win. But will we??

I guess it's about perspective. We outgained Utah 445 to 322, they outgained them 327 to 261. UW had the ball for 33 minutes against Utah, we had the ball for 26 minutes against Utah. UW had 18 first downs to Utah's 13. We had 21 first downs to Utah's 20. Utah had 3.5 ypa when passing against UW. They had 5.6 ypa against us. UW had a 14 point lead in the third quarter and never let it go. We had to come from behind to win. Turnovers were the key to UW's relatively easy victory against Utah but regardless of any spin, they did a much better job against Utah than we did. UW out-utahed Utah.

Now, in all of our other games against common opponents, we played just as well and in some cases, much better. Beating Oregon by two TD's is much better than losing in OT (although we all know that the mutts probably should have won by a FG in regulation). Our win against Cal was not as close as it looked and the mutts lost. We both beat CU handily but we dominated CU far more completely. We beat Stanford and OSU on the road by roughly the same margin that UW won at home. I believe that bodes well for us. The mutt's two conference losses were both on the road and they are 2-3 in "road" games so far this year if you view the trip to Atlanta as a road game and frankly, UCLA was a terrible football team when they played them and that road win does not impress. That Utah game is the only time the mutts played really impressively on the road.

If this game were in Seattle, it would be very tough to be really confident in winning. The mutts are 19-1 at home in the past three seasons and haven't lost at home since 2016. In Pullman, I really like our chances and think we win by a TD. It's only Wednesday but I believe that we knock the mutts off 28-21.
 
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My biggest concern is them running the clock with long, extended drives. We start to panic and make mistakes. Gaskin will get his yards and Hunter Bryant will get his share of 3rd and 8s, but we have to stay the course and not go for the deep ball, cause that’s where the game can turn. Those DBs are all Sunday players. Keep the honest, yes. But don’t panic!
 
Current Pullman forecast from National Weather Service for Friday & Friday night:

A slight chance of snow before 9am, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 9am and 10am, then rain after 10am. High near 43. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 9pm. Low around 29. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%

There is no scenario where someone can paint a picture that this is a good development for WSU in this game.

No saying it will not be something that they can not overcome, but they would have a better chance on a fast track. Really surprised that the Vegas line has not moved in UW's direction with that weather forecast. Actually think it is a game that will not see a lot of action relative to heavy bet games in Vegas. On paper WSU looks to be the better team and they have covered their spreads all year, often easily. UW is probably CFB's most underperforming team this year and they never cover , not even last week against OSU. However they never get points like they are in this game. Also you simply can not ignore they have had WSU's number in a major way the last 3 seasons and present match-up issues all over the place this year.
 
we have a qb guiding us who should be the Heisman winner, we have a LB who should be an All American, and we are on a roll.

Our best weapon maybe Minshew and how he responds to these situations. He has only been around for a limited time so he doesn't internalize the lack of success we have had against the dawgs since Peterson has been there.

UW is going to run two TE's, and they will try to run the ball down our throat like OSU did. Even when we jumped out to 14 point lead, OSU is the one team that stuck to their game plan. I believe they had over 200 yards on us. Their offense may be their best defense. And that is how they will try to keep the score in the teens again,.

And we know what their defense will try to do. They are baiting us to run the ball. And doing so burns clock and is another way to keep the score down. It is such an interesting match up. Our oline is better than it was last year, and their d line is not as good. Our receivers have to hang on the ball this year, no dropped passes as that derailed us in 2013 and several other years.

Last year the offense was a huge problem on the road. They really didn't show up in all the road games last year and against Boise State. Blown out at Arizona and Cal. Falk got bench against Arizona and Boise State. Defense created 7 turnovers against Utah and we still only managed to win by 8 and had to defend Hail Mary because we couldn't put the game away. I was never confident in the offense going into last years AC. The year is in different.This is the best offense we've brought to AC. The offensive line has given up only 7 sacks this year, plus you add Minshew's mobility that causes a lot of problems for defenses. Our receivers are studs and our running backs are the toughest rb's to tackle in open space.

We should be confident as hell, but if they didn't have that ugly purple W on their helmets but an O or a U, we'd probably be a lot more confident going into this game, but it's the AC and we've experienced nightmares with great Coug teams crapping the bed against the mutts.
 
Last year the offense was a huge problem on the road. They really didn't show up in all the road games last year and against Boise State. Blown out at Arizona and Cal. Falk got bench against Arizona and Boise State. Defense created 7 turnovers against Utah and we still only managed to win by 8 and had to defend Hail Mary because we couldn't put the game away. I was never confident in the offense going into last years AC. The year is in different.This is the best offense we've brought to AC. The offensive line has given up only 7 sacks this year, plus you add Minshew's mobility that causes a lot of problems for defenses. Our receivers are studs and our running backs are the toughest rb's to tackle in open space.

We should be confident as hell, but if they didn't have that ugly purple W on their helmets but an O or a U, we'd probably be a lot more confident going into this game, but it's the AC and we've experienced nightmares with great Coug teams crapping the bed against the mutts.

This has been such a big factor for us this year. Falk was sacked 39 times last year, talk about drive killers! He also threw 13 interceptions to Minshew's 7 so far this year.

I should also add that Hilinski was sacked 5 times, so 44 sacks last year.
 
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Current Pullman forecast from National Weather Service for Friday & Friday night:

A slight chance of snow before 9am, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 9am and 10am, then rain after 10am. High near 43. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 9pm. Low around 29. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%
There is no scenario where someone can paint a picture that this is a good development for WSU in this game.
.

Oh I don't know. If it cools off a little earlier than expected, and the snow comes, it's all over. For the mutts that is.
 
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