2024 Season predictions

[Flatlandcoug]

With the spring practice done and a lot of uncertainty ahead, I decided to look at what Massey's computer ratings had to say about our upcoming season. Bear in mind that it's likely to be completely wrong because it looks at the past for its calculations and has no idea of how offseason roster changes will impact things. That said...here are the results that his model is predicting for the 2024 Cougs:

Portland St: 45-14
Texas Tech: 27-28
Washington: 24-33
San Jose St: 35-21
@ Boise St: 28-26
@ Fresno St: 31-26
Hawaii: 38-14
@ SDSU: 31-21
Utah St: 38-20
@ New Mexico: 38-17
@ Oregon St: 24-31
Wyoming: 34-20

He is predicting a 9-3 finish with a couple close road wins after a rough start. Texas Tech is a hard one to figure out. They beat a pretty decent KU team that was 7-2 and ranked in the Top 25 at the time. They thumped Cal in their bowl game....who beat us. They also struggled against the rest of the 5 and 6 win teams on their schedule and those games ended up being the last one with the ball wins. The Husky prediction is clearly based on last year's team but given our last ten years against the mutts...it's hard to argue against the result.

A little surprised by the prediction for us to beat both Boise State and Fresno State on the road. Frankly, I don't see us getting both of those wins. 9-3 would be a nice bridge season for us.

BTW, the computer is saying that Oregon State goes 11-1 with their only loss to Oregon.

 

[moxeecoug]

I don’t see OSU going 11-1 considering they have a new coaching staff, they lost their QB, running back and other players. Its been a tough off season for the Beavs which is very unfortunate.

I agree with FSU and BSU. That will be tough for us to get both of those wins considering they are back to back on the road. Sounds like BSU has the potential to be very good this year and FSU is always tough and good.

 

[wazzucougs96]

WSU is going to go 5-7 and everyone will point and say "see, you guys don't even belong in the MWC" and the misery of being a WSU fan will continue.

 

[UberCougars]

9-3 and 11-1 and no bowls for YOU!

 

[95coug]

With the spring practice done and a lot of uncertainty ahead, I decided to look at what Massey's computer ratings had to say about our upcoming season. Bear in mind that it's likely to be completely wrong because it looks at the past for its calculations and has no idea of how offseason roster changes will impact things. That said...here are the results that his model is predicting for the 2024 Cougs:

Portland St: 45-14
Texas Tech: 27-28
Washington: 24-33
San Jose St: 35-21
@ Boise St: 28-26
@ Fresno St: 31-26
Hawaii: 38-14
@ SDSU: 31-21
Utah St: 38-20
@ New Mexico: 38-17
@ Oregon St: 24-31
Wyoming: 34-20

He is predicting a 9-3 finish with a couple close road wins after a rough start. Texas Tech is a hard one to figure out. They beat a pretty decent KU team that was 7-2 and ranked in the Top 25 at the time. They thumped Cal in their bowl game....who beat us. They also struggled against the rest of the 5 and 6 win teams on their schedule and those games ended up being the last one with the ball wins. The Husky prediction is clearly based on last year's team but given our last ten years against the mutts...it's hard to argue against the result.

A little surprised by the prediction for us to beat both Boise State and Fresno State on the road. Frankly, I don't see us getting both of those wins. 9-3 would be a nice bridge season for us.

BTW, the computer is saying that Oregon State goes 11-1 with their only loss to Oregon.

Historically, I'd say we'd go 6-6 against this schedule just by showing up. But history really doesn't matter, especially in the NIL/unrestricted portal landscape.

In reality, we would not have to be a stellar team to go 12-0 against this schedule. Not that I think we will. We have a lot of question marks and lost key players that I don't see that we've replaced. Our OL was downright bad last season, and I haven't seen anything that makes me think that's changed. Last season's team probably goes 6-6 against this schedule.

 

[geon]

5-7

 

[Coug90]

Historically, I'd say we'd go 6-6 against this schedule just by showing up. But history really doesn't matter, especially in the NIL/unrestricted portal landscape.

In reality, we would not have to be a stellar team to go 12-0 against this schedule. Not that I think we will. We have a lot of question marks and lost key players that I don't see that we've replaced. Our OL was downright bad last season, and I haven't seen anything that makes me think that's changed. Last season's team probably goes 6-6 against this schedule.

Oregon State is the toughest game on the schedule. Probably have never said that before. That said we probably drop 4 or 5 of these.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

I don’t see OSU going 11-1 considering they have a new coaching staff, they lost their QB, running back and other players. Its been a tough off season for the Beavs which is very unfortunate.

I agree with FSU and BSU. That will be tough for us to get both of those wins considering they are back to back on the road. Sounds like BSU has the potential to be very good this year and FSU is always tough and good.

WSU has opponents with 7 new 1st year coaches. I don't recall seeing something like that before on anyone's schedule.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Tech is like so many teams; there has historically been a big difference between the 1's and the 2's. A few injuries to starters can make a significantly negative difference. And if the 1's recover and come back, it then moves the needle back in a positive direction. I suspect that accounted for some of Tech's inconsistency over the course of the season.

OSU's team from last year would indeed be the toughest game on this year's schedule. I am not as certain that will be the case this year with their current roster. I could buy the idea that they will be one of the toughest games, but I don't think they are head and shoulders above UW and Tech.

And as you know, we don't know much for certain until the season starts. As the two Wisconsin games demonstrate, Dickert tends to have his team ready to play early in the season.

Prediction: We beat one out of UW, TT and OSU. We drop one of FSU, BSU & SDSU. And we show up brain dead and lose a game we should win. Net record: 8-4 if Mateer stays healthy.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

WSU is going to go 5-7 and everyone will point and say "see, you guys don't even belong in the MWC" and the misery of being a WSU fan will continue.

If we go 5-7 against this schedule, it will be time to question whether Dickert is the coach for WSU.

Portland State, San Jose State, Hawaii and New Mexico are games that we have to win. SDSU and Utah State were simply not good football teams last year. You can say that we weren't good either...but they were both another level worse than us. Wyoming is harder to figure. They did well against a crap schedule last year.

That said, 6-6 is the floor for us with the schedule or questions need to be asked and hot seats need to be fired up. Frankly, 7-5 should be expected and the hot seat should be warmed up for Dickert if that doesn't happen. 8+ wins should rightfully be celebrated.

FWIW, I don't know that we have the team to get that done, but if Dickert doesn't have a team capable of 8+ wins assembled...that's on him. This is his team. Mateer is really going to be the lynchpin for us. The OL stick looks sketchy, but a good QB can make all the difference. Ward was directly responsible for the losses to UCLA, Stanford and Cal and we had an 8-4 team if he hadn't just completely sucked in those games. Mateer hasn't shown us enough to think that he's better than Ward overall, but if he can be better than Ward was on his bad days...that's going to be enough to get us a long way against the schedule this year.

 

[mikalalas]

9-3 and 11-1 and no bowls for YOU!

I seriously doubt that. WSU, OSU, PAC 2, IF they go 11-1, 10-2, 9-3, 8-4 for WSU, 12-0, 11-1, 10-2, 9-3, 8-4, for OSU, etc, then 2 of the about 50 bowls will, would take WSU, OSU, as AT LARGE.

Won't be a good bowl, because the bigger, best bowls locked into agreements with conferences, CFP, etc, but even tho WSU, OSU tech in a scheduling agreement with MWC, they are kinda, sorta like semi independent semi free agents, kinda, sorta semi like Notre Dame, BYU(when they were independent), as far as being kinda, sorta semi like independents, which means if they do good enough, they will get a bowl just like a independent would.).

 

[CougPatrol]

WSU is going to go 5-7 and everyone will point and say "see, you guys don't even belong in the MWC" and the misery of ME being a WSU fan will continue.

Edited to reflect your WSU experience. Mine has been outstanding.

 

[longtimecoug]

Oregon State is the toughest game on the schedule. Probably have never said that before. That said we probably drop 4 or 5 of these.

Oregon state was gutted by the portal

 

[UberCougars]

If we go 5-7 against this schedule, it will be time to question whether Dickert is the coach for WSU.

Portland State, San Jose State, Hawaii and New Mexico are games that we have to win. SDSU and Utah State were simply not good football teams last year. You can say that we weren't good either...but they were both another level worse than us. Wyoming is harder to figure. They did well against a crap schedule last year.

That said, 6-6 is the floor for us with the schedule or questions need to be asked and hot seats need to be fired up. Frankly, 7-5 should be expected and the hot seat should be warmed up for Dickert if that doesn't happen. 8+ wins should rightfully be celebrated.

FWIW, I don't know that we have the team to get that done, but if Dickert doesn't have a team capable of 8+ wins assembled...that's on him. This is his team. Mateer is really going to be the lynchpin for us. The OL stick looks sketchy, but a good QB can make all the difference. Ward was directly responsible for the losses to UCLA, Stanford and Cal and we had an 8-4 team if he hadn't just completely sucked in those games. Mateer hasn't shown us enough to think that he's better than Ward overall, but if he can be better than Ward was on his bad days...that's going to be enough to get us a long way against the schedule this year.

“question the Coach” is what we do best!

1-11 or 11-1, won’t matter

 

[Loyal Coug1]

I seriously doubt that. WSU, OSU, PAC 2, IF they go 11-1, 10-2, 9-3, 8-4 for WSU, 12-0, 11-1, 10-2, 9-3, 8-4, for OSU, etc, then 2 of the about 50 bowls will, would take WSU, OSU, as AT LARGE.

Won't be a good bowl, because the bigger, best bowls locked into agreements with conferences, CFP, etc, but even tho WSU, OSU tech in a scheduling agreement with MWC, they are kinda, sorta like semi independent semi free agents, kinda, sorta semi like Notre Dame, BYU(when they were independent), as far as being kinda, sorta semi like independents, which means if they do good enough, they will get a bowl just like a independent would.).

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that the Pac-12 bowl affiliations run for two more years. Of course we can only fill 2 of them at best. question becomes can the best bowls (Alamo, Holiday, Sun, Vegas in order of $) screw us out of their bids?

 

[wazzucougs96]

Edited to reflect your WSU experience. Mine has been outstanding.

so getting relegated and all of our players leaving is outstanding?

 

[CougPatrol]

so getting relegated and all of our players leaving is outstanding?

No, but it was inevitable. Youth and college football are dying on the West coast.

 

[triscuit one]

I'm thinking somewhere between 7-8 wins, but don't know where the will come.

I do like our schedule. As someone stated, Dickert teams have come out strong at the beginning of the season. We didn't have a lot of transfers/graduations/NFL compared to TT and uw. Both teams are simular with solid skill positions with questionable lines. Both will have remade online with young players and transfers fighting for positions and will have to gel quickly. Same with the DL. In TT case much of the starting D will be new. I will take it.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

There are as many 6 MWC schools on your schedule that are favorable to Wazzu. WSU losing to any of those bottom 4 schools on the below prediction is where you would want to start evaluating your life. The San Jose State prediction I think is too high. They lost their coach and best QB they've had in a very long time.

This guy's MWC football predictions....

If you are interested this prediction guy has a link to their 2024 SOS for all FBS schools.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

There are as many 6 MWC schools on your schedule that are favorable to Wazzu. WSU losing to any of those bottom 4 schools on the below prediction is where you would want to start evaluating your life. The San Jose State prediction I think is too high. They lost their coach and best QB they've had in a very long time.

This guy's MWC football predictions....

If you are interested this prediction guy has a link to their 2024 SOS for all FBS schools.

Thanks for the links Meister. WSU at #119? Yet we play #28 uw, #40 Texas Tech, #105 BSU, #106 Fresno State, #111 SDSU, and #113 SJSU. Did I miss any? Hmmm......not much respect at all. We aren't even anyone's toughest game.

 

[Wazzubrooz]

Oregon State is the toughest game on the schedule. Probably have never said that before. That said we probably drop 4 or 5 of these.

With all the Beavs lost and a new coaching staff / systems to put into place, they are grossly over-rated. & I like the Beavs