How bad is the cap hit? They need to find a trade partner. Move the contract and get something in return.
Bad.
If they cut him before June they take a $33.8 million hit. After June, it’s $21.3 million this year and $13.5 in 2021. Only costs $22 million to keep him.
They’ll try to find a trade, but even that’s tough. It’ll cost them $18.5 mil for an offseason trade. After June, it costs them $6.25M this year and 12.5M next. That’s obviously the best financial choice, but it’ll be harder to find a willing trade partner for a post-June trade. They’d probably have to give up something to get another team to take his contract (like Foles and a 2nd round pick for a 3rd/4th rounder).
I think their best move is shop him aggressively immediately. Dumping him gives $4 million cap space that can be used in free agency and the draft. Meanwhile, figure out how bad they want to get rid of him if they can’t dump him before june.
Another option - convince him to retire. Then his entire salary is cleared and they’re off the hook. I’d offer him this deal - no trade, no cut, if he retires March 21. He’s due a $5 million roster bonus effective March 20. So...we’ll pay you $5 million to quit.
That deal clears his $22 million in dead money for 2020, so effectively nets $17 million. He has a Super Bowl ring and MVP, got paid $22 million in 2019, plus a $25 million signing bonus, and gets another $5 million for going home while he can still walk. Everybody wins.
EDIT: Just looked at cap space for 2020. Jags have less than $2M, so they can’t cut Foles before June at all. Even trading him then isn’t ideal.
Additional problem - this year’s draft is QB-heavy. A lot of the teams who need a QB probably aren’t going to be very interested in trading for Foles until after the draft...and then only if they don’t draft one. The rookie will be cheaper, have a higher ceiling, and probably generate more fan interest. And, most of the teams with a major QB need are picking in the top 10.