Expanded playoff

[CougPatrol]

Regardless of how the media deal shakes out today, one thing we have to keep in mind is that the college football playoff is only going to get bigger. There are already discussions about expanding it from 12 to 16 or 24 teams. I don't think it'll stop there either. I eventually foresee a 32 team playoff format.

With only 12 teams qualifying for the playoff, a lot of blueblood programs are going to be left out. Media executives aren't going to like it if 9-3 teams like USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Penn State, etc. aren't part of the playoff.

Given that, it reaffirms why I'm OK with WSU staying out West in a glorified MWC as opposed to chasing dollars in the B12 or a mish-mash of teams from the soon to be reshuffled ACC. If we can settle into a West coast conference where the top-2 teams qualify for the playoff, I'd be completely fine with it. A late season game vs. Oregon State, Hawaii, SDSU, AIr Force, or Boise State with a playoff bid on the line would be exciting for our fans.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Regardless of how the media deal shakes out today, one thing we have to keep in mind is that the college football playoff is only going to get bigger. There are already discussions about expanding it from 12 to 16 or 24 teams. I don't think it'll stop there either. I eventually foresee a 32 team playoff format.

With only 12 teams qualifying for the playoff, a lot of blueblood programs are going to be left out. Media executives aren't going to like it if 9-3 teams like USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Penn State, etc. aren't part of the playoff.

Given that, it reaffirms why I'm OK with WSU staying out West in a glorified MWC as opposed to chasing dollars in the B12 or a mish-mash of teams from the soon to be reshuffled ACC. If we can settle into a West coast conference where the top-2 teams qualify for the playoff, I'd be completely fine with it. A late season game vs. Oregon State, Hawaii, SDSU, AIr Force, or Boise State with a playoff bid on the line would be exciting for our fans.

I will be surprised if it goes beyond 16 teams in my lifetime. That will take a full month to complete and I don't see any of the schools that matter in the decision being willing to do more than that.

If things go to hell in a handbasket for the Pac-12, I see the SEC, B1G, Big 12 and ACC get two teams guaranteed. The Pac-12/MWC, MAC, AAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt get a champion in. The final three spots are filled by the top remaining at large teams. I'm working under the assumption that Oregon and UW go to the B1G and the rest of the four corner schools go to the Big 12. Nobody wants Stanford, Cal, WSU and OSU as far as I've heard. I think the four remaining Pac-12 schools join up with the Mountain West.

 

[Coug90]

I will be surprised if it goes beyond 16 teams in my lifetime. That will take a full month to complete and I don't see any of the schools that matter in the decision being willing to do more than that.

If things go to hell in a handbasket for the Pac-12, I see the SEC, B1G, Big 12 and ACC get two teams guaranteed. The Pac-12/MWC, MAC, AAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt get a champion in. The final three spots are filled by the top remaining at large teams. I'm working under the assumption that Oregon and UW go to the B1G and the rest of the four corner schools go to the Big 12. Nobody wants Stanford, Cal, WSU and OSU as far as I've heard. I think the four remaining Pac-12 schools join up with the Mountain West.

Agreed, this isn’t basketball and you can’t play football twice a week. I think 16 is about as far as you could go before you have to start dialing back the number of season games.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Agreed, this isn’t basketball and you can’t play football twice a week. I think 16 is about as far as you could go before you have to start dialing back the number of season games.

I'll follow up and say that I hope that an Pac/MWC with WSU, OSU, Stanford and Cal would be able to hold onto a "Power 5" spot and get two teams into the playoff, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[CougPatrol]

I totally disagree. At a minimum, the playoff will be expanded to 16 teams within 5 years. Then it will expand again.

8 conference games, 3 OOC games, championship week, and then the playoff. Top seeds will receive BYE's, meaning there would only be a small handful of teams who play 3 playoff games/season.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

I totally disagree. At a minimum, the playoff will be expanded to 16 teams within 5 years. Then it will expand again.

8 conference games, 3 OOC games, championship week, and then the playoff. Top seeds will receive BYE's, meaning there would only be a small handful of teams who play 3 playoff games/season.

I don't see teams and conferences being willing to cut back to 11 games. These TV contracts that are creating all the buzz are based on 12 game seasons. An expansion to a 24 team playoff would mean a play-in round between a bunch of teams that probably aren't going to win the national championship. Are those 8 games the same value as the 60 some games that would disappear to accommodate an 11 game schedule? Close to half of those games are conference games.....

 

[Coug90]

I totally disagree. At a minimum, the playoff will be expanded to 16 teams within 5 years. Then it will expand again.

8 conference games, 3 OOC games, championship week, and then the playoff. Top seeds will receive BYE's, meaning there would only be a small handful of teams who play 3 playoff games/season.

I don’t see a game eliminated from everyone’s schedule to accommodate 16 extra playoff games, but who knows. Also didn’t think 10 years ago players would be picking up brand new cars when they showed up on campus and have that be within the rules.

 

[CougPatrol]

I don't see teams and conferences being willing to cut back to 11 games. These TV contracts that are creating all the buzz are based on 12 game seasons. An expansion to a 24 team playoff would mean a play-in round between a bunch of teams that probably aren't going to win the national championship. Are those 8 games the same value as the 60 some games that would disappear to accommodate an 11 game schedule? Close to half of those games are conference games.....

I don't see teams having much of a say moving forward. The media companies are going to control everything, and the larger the playoff, the larger the payoff.

 

[Cougini5591]

The answer for this to me is easy...

If more money is made by 32 teams instead of 16... it will happen.

Ask the question... answer will always be "what maximizes the profit"

 

[Flatlandcoug]

I don't see teams having much of a say moving forward. The media companies are going to control everything, and the larger the playoff, the larger the payoff.

And therein lies the real question. The Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12 (for now) all play 9 conference games. The SEC has flirted with it for years but so far, adding an extra 8 wins to the conference portfolio has been deemed more important than the money. Regardless, there are 40 Power 5 conference teams that play an extra conference game amongst one another. That's 20 conference games. The ACC and SEC will have 30 extra games that would disappear from their TV portfolio as well. Those games are against scrubs and would have less value, but how much less?

If the playoff were to expand to 24 teams, are those 8 games worth the same value as the 50 games that would no longer be on TV? Do you really think that the SEC is going to agree to go to a 32 team format that forces their champs to play an extra scrub in a playoff game to get to the championship game?

The media companies have a lot of control...but they aren't running the show by themselves. I guarantee that if ESPN, Fox and CBS had their way, the SEC and ACC would be playing 9 conference games, because you know that those are far more valuable than games between Alabama vs Chattanooga or Auburn vs Samford.

 

[Cougsocal]

What good is an expanded playoff when you lack the tools to compete? That is the reality of MWC alignment. Power conference membership provides those tools. Money and top tier recruiting access comes with Power conference membership. If you are ever invited in as a non Power conference member, you simply become cannon fodder in a "body bag" game against Georgia in Athens or Atlanta. No thanks!

We played the #1 team in the country in during the 1997 and 2002 seasons, and had our chances because we were an elite team ourselves. Playing the #1 team as a "feel good story," doesn't hide the fact that you are nothing but the equivalent of the Philippines, Costa Rica, Panama Zambia, Vietnam, "invited" but you don't really deserve it, or belong.

 

[CougPatrol]

What good is an expanded playoff when you lack the tools to compete? That is the reality of MWC alignment. Power conference membership provides those tools. Money and top tier recruiting access comes with Power conference membership. If you are ever invited in as a non Power conference member, you simply become cannon fodder in a "body bag" game against Georgia in Athens or Atlanta. No thanks!

We played the #1 team in the country in during the 1997 and 2002 seasons, and had our chances because we were an elite team ourselves. Playing the #1 team as a "feel good story," doesn't hide the fact that you are nothing but the equivalent of the Philippines, Costa Rica, Panama Zambia, Vietnam, "invited" but you don't really deserve it, or belong.

You're not wrong, but the NCAA basketball tournament is one of the most exciting playoff formats in all of American sports. It would be nice if football could generate some Cinderella stories like San Diego State, Gonzaga, George Mason, etc.

 

[Cougsocal]

You're not wrong, but the NCAA basketball tournament is one of the most exciting playoff formats in all of American sports. It would be nice if football could generate some Cinderella stories like San Diego State, Gonzaga, George Mason, etc.

You aren't wrong either, but basketball isn't football, especially late season. Leach got bitten by FCS teams early, but the later the season goes and attrition rise, the less possibility for upsets to occur. I see a scenario where a 16 beats the 1 at a neutral site, but the physical toll on that undermanned team simply isn't matched in basketball. They are called "body bag" games in the college football world for good reason. Cinderella Man ultimately got KOed by Joe Louis.

 

[Coug90]

You aren't wrong either, but basketball isn't football, especially late season. Leach got bitten by FCS teams early, but the later the season goes and attrition rise, the less possibility for upsets to occur. I see a scenario where a 16 beats the 1 at a neutral site, but the physical toll on that undermanned team simply isn't matched in basketball. They are called "body bag" games in the college football world for good reason. Cinderella Man ultimately got KOed by Joe Louis.

I don’t see a 16 beating a 1 on a neutral site this day and age. Georgia would have obliterated any team outside the top 10 last year.

 

[CougPatrol]

You aren't wrong either, but basketball isn't football, especially late season. Leach got bitten by FCS teams early, but the later the season goes and attrition rise, the less possibility for upsets to occur. I see a scenario where a 16 beats the 1 at a neutral site, but the physical toll on that undermanned team simply isn't matched in basketball. They are called "body bag" games in the college football world for good reason. Cinderella Man ultimately got KOed by Joe Louis.

They won't be as frequent as they are in basketball of course, and the upsets won't involve the premier teams like Alabama and Georgia typically, but there will be upsets like we saw last year where TCU beat Michigan. There will be Boise State, Hawaii, and Utah stories, where the Mountain West Champs put together teams that hang with the top-4.

That's why, if the NCAA pulls their head out and reels in the NIL and portal, I'm not concerned about WSU landing in a hybrid MWC/Pac league. We'll still be able to find 20 good HS kids every season.

 

[dgibbons]

I don’t see a 16 beating a 1 on a neutral site this day and age. Georgia would have obliterated any team outside the top 10 last year.

Over a long enough horizon it will happen. UMBC and FDU did it.

 

[Coug90]

Over a long enough horizon it will happen. UMBC and FDU did it.

I’m talking about football

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Over a long enough horizon it will happen. UMBC and FDU did it.

When you look at lower division teams upsetting upper division teams, it never happens against an elite opponent. Using FCS vs Power 5 as an example, here are the following "major" upsets with the final record of the losing FBS team.

2021: Montana vs #20 UW (4-8)
2021: Jacksonville ST vs Florida State (5-7)
2019: Citadel vs Georgia Tech (3-9)
2018: Nicholls State vs KU (3-9)
2017: LIberty vs Baylor (1-11)
2016: EWU vs WSU (8-5)
2016: Northern Iowa vs Iowa State (3-9)
2016: Richmond vs Virginia (2-10)
2016: North Dakota St vs #13 Iowa (8-5)
2015: Portland State vs WSU (9-4)
2015: SDSU vs Kansas (0-12)
2014: NDSU vs Iowa State (2-10)
2013: NDSU vs Kansas State (8-5)
2013: EWU vs #25 Oregon State (7-6)
2013: Northern Iowa vs Iowa State (3-9)
2013: Georgia Southern vs Florida (4-8)

FCS wins vs. FBS teams: All-time victories, upsets, wins vs. ranked teams

FCS (and I-AA) programs have upset FBS (I-AA) teams time and again through the years. Here's a list of the FCS stunners against FBS teams.

www.ncaa.com

Looking at 10 years of evidence, 11 of the 16 FCS wins over Power 5 teams were wins over objectively bad teams with losing records...usually 4 wins or less. North Dakota State beat KSU and Iowa to get a couple good wins. EWU managed to beat Oregon State in 2013.....a team that lost it's last five conference games of that season. EWU also managed to beat WSU....as did Portland State. Sadly, the Cougs have the distinction of being the only program to have two losses to FCS teams while having a winning record. The Portland State loss was 100% us still sucking from 2014 and not knowing how to win games. FWIW, notice that no team that finished in the Top 25 has ever lost to an FCS school.

When you throw out North Dakota State and the WSU gacks, FCS teams have one decent win in the past 10 years and that was over a very mediocre 7-6 Oregon State team that would have finished 5-7 if Connor Halliday hadn't imploded in the third quarter against the Beavers.

FCS isn't the same as Group of Five and Tulane last year showed that a group of five school can have a puncher's chance against lower level champs from the Pac-12 (if it exists in the future), the Big 12 and the ACC some years. I just don't see them having a chance against Ohio State, Michigan (when they are champ material), Alabama, Georgia or LSU. Any team that has a legitimate shot at winning the national championship isn't losing to a Group of 5 team. Just my drawn out take.

 

[Stretch 74]

When you look at lower division teams upsetting upper division teams, it never happens against an elite opponent. Using FCS vs Power 5 as an example, here are the following "major" upsets with the final record of the losing FBS team.

2021: Montana vs #20 UW (4-8)
2021: Jacksonville ST vs Florida State (5-7)
2019: Citadel vs Georgia Tech (3-9)
2018: Nicholls State vs KU (3-9)
2017: LIberty vs Baylor (1-11)
2016: EWU vs WSU (8-5)
2016: Northern Iowa vs Iowa State (3-9)
2016: Richmond vs Virginia (2-10)
2016: North Dakota St vs #13 Iowa (8-5)
2015: Portland State vs WSU (9-4)
2015: SDSU vs Kansas (0-12)
2014: NDSU vs Iowa State (2-10)
2013: NDSU vs Kansas State (8-5)
2013: EWU vs #25 Oregon State (7-6)
2013: Northern Iowa vs Iowa State (3-9)
2013: Georgia Southern vs Florida (4-8)

FCS wins vs. FBS teams: All-time victories, upsets, wins vs. ranked teams

FCS (and I-AA) programs have upset FBS (I-AA) teams time and again through the years. Here's a list of the FCS stunners against FBS teams.

www.ncaa.com

Looking at 10 years of evidence, 11 of the 16 FCS wins over Power 5 teams were wins over objectively bad teams with losing records...usually 4 wins or less. North Dakota State beat KSU and Iowa to get a couple good wins. EWU managed to beat Oregon State in 2013.....a team that lost it's last five conference games of that season. EWU also managed to beat WSU....as did Portland State. Sadly, the Cougs have the distinction of being the only program to have two losses to FCS teams while having a winning record. The Portland State loss was 100% us still sucking from 2014 and not knowing how to win games. FWIW, notice that no team that finished in the Top 25 has ever lost to an FCS school.

When you throw out North Dakota State and the WSU gacks, FCS teams have one decent win in the past 10 years and that was over a very mediocre 7-6 Oregon State team that would have finished 5-7 if Connor Halliday hadn't imploded in the third quarter against the Beavers.

FCS isn't the same as Group of Five and Tulane last year showed that a group of five school can have a puncher's chance against lower level champs from the Pac-12 (if it exists in the future), the Big 12 and the ACC some years. I just don't see them having a chance against Ohio State, Michigan (when they are champ material), Alabama, Georgia or LSU. Any team that has a legitimate shot at winning the national championship isn't losing to a Group of 5 team. Just my drawn out take.

Didn't Michigan get ambushed by a lower level team a few years ago? I seem to remember that happening, not sure who did it or when.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Didn't Michigan get ambushed by a lower level team a few years ago? I seem to remember that happening, not sure who did it or when.

App State in 2007.

Mich finished 8-4 and won their bowl game to go 9-4.

This was the season that forced Carr into retirement.

 

[Coug90]

App State in 2007.

Mich finished 8-4 and won their bowl game to go 9-4.

This was the season that forced Carr into retirement.

App State was a better team. That was no fluke.

That said a 16 ain’t beating a 1 in todays CFB. These games won’t even be close. The talent is too top heavy for those top 4-6 teams.

 

[mikalalas]

Didn't Michigan get ambushed by a lower level team a few years ago? I seem to remember that happening, not sure who did it or when.

Yes, NDSU beat Michigan, and Appalachian State beat Michigan. NDSU is FCS. And Appalachian State was FCS, and moved to Group of 5, midmajor D1.

 

[fingerdisco]

App State was a better team. That was no fluke.

That said a 16 ain’t beating a 1 in todays CFB. These games won’t even be close. The talent is too top heavy for those top 4-6 teams.

Half of UGA’s defense was drafted in the first round a couple years ago…NIL allows the blue bloods to hamstring any team getting too big for their britches by stealing any cream that rises to the top. Nobody outside 4-5 teams is going to compete with that. The NC is just going to rotate around to less than a handful of schools. I won’t be watching.