Colorado is not going to lose tonight. So how is the fifth seed determined? I’d rather sit there than sixth or seventh. The implication is playing Colorado in the second round versus SC or fUCLA.
Fifth Seed Question
- Thread starter SDCoug
- Start date
Head to head is the first tie breaker but all the teams in the tie split. The next tie breaker is who beat the top teams. Oregon beat UCLA and the Cougs and the Huskies didn't so Oregon is the 5th seed. Best I could determine we are tied with UW on all the tie breakers until you get to best overall record which goes to us. So we should be the 6th seed.
Cougs get #7 seed and will play Cal on Wednesday. UW gets #6 seed (and will play Utah) in the most bizarre way. Working down from the top teams in the standings, both WSU and UW lost to Arizona twice, UCLA twice, USC twice, both split with Colorado, both split with Oregon, but then you work all the way down to ASU. We split with the Sun Devils, but UW only played ASU once and beat them. 1-0 vs. ASU is better than 1-1 vs. ASU.....so the Huskies get seeded higher than the Cougs. Doesn't matter that we have a better overall record. Crazy stuff.
I may eat my words, but quite frankly, I think I'd rather play Cal than Utah right now. Utes are playing much better ball of late. I'll let you know after Wednesday.
Glad Cougar
I may eat my words, but quite frankly, I think I'd rather play Cal than Utah right now. Utes are playing much better ball of late. I'll let you know after Wednesday.
Glad Cougar
Damn! That smarts. That ASU loss really stings now.
Not the path I wanted but the one we’ve got. Let’s hope we can do what the Beavs did last year. The only thing I’m certain about with our team is that anything can happen.
Not the path I wanted but the one we’ve got. Let’s hope we can do what the Beavs did last year. The only thing I’m certain about with our team is that anything can happen.
Yeah, would rather WSU face USC in the 2nd round, instead of UCLA in the 2nd round, like they currently would have to do, face UCLA, assuming they beat Cal.
Let's not kid ourselves, this team has proven all season that they have far more talent than metal toughness. Winning by dodging teams wouldn't change that. It would be nice to see them play to their potential, but I'm not holding my breathe. The most talented team we've had in 40+ years, playing like they have has been a huge shame. Hopefully, with a year of maturity they can replicate the last "very talented" Cougar team that went front 16-14 to 23-7, by getting tough between the ears. Yeah, would you believe a team with Craig Ehlo, Steve Harriel, Aaron Haskins, Guy Williams and Chris Winkler went 16-14. But when they went 23-7 the next season, they owned the close game situation, winning 10 Pac-10 games decided by 4 points or less.
I agree they had the pieces and we got a glimpse of the kind of coach Smith could be. If Noah doesn’t take a bafflingly huge step back then we are probably two p12 tourney wins from dancing. If an on court leader emerged and could have willed the team to a couple of buckets during those 4 to 6 (and occasionally 10) minute stretches of the offense disappearing every 2nd half, same thing. It was fun to watch some competitive basketball in the conference, but this team should be a tourney team. They wasted some opportunities.
The sportswriters preseason rankings spend about 10 seconds researching then putting us somewhere near the bottom, rinse and repeat. For those using that as the bar, just stop.
Totally understand that perspective, but I never take the first round for granted. I still think Cal is a better draw than Utah. But this Cougar team can lose to either or beat either. I also think if they play a complete game that includes fulfilling their potential, they can beat UCLA just as easily as USC. Regardless, I look forward to seeing how they play this week.
Glad Cougar
I agree with most of what you wrote, but I don't think this is the most talented team we've had in 40+ years. There have been some notable shortcomings on this year's squad. First and foremost, It really isn't a good shooting team. It's not a good playmaking team. Those are "talents" that are lacking with current personnel. The two NCAA teams under Tony were much more talented on both offense and defense. This year's team has perhaps the most athleticism, but that doesn't equate to talent. I'm hoping these athletes turn into very good ballplayers with experience.
Lost opportunities this year make it a frustrating season. But I've been following Cougar basketball since Marv Harshman days and from a historical perspective, finishing in the upper half of the conference is never something for WSU to be ashamed of, IMO.
Glad Cougar
Thanks Glad for writing basically what I was going to write so I don't have to now. This team has pieces. This team has potential. But, it is not there yet. It is decent to good, as this is the best season in conference that WSU has had since Tony Bennett was manning the sidelines. WSU is heading in the right direction.
I have to say it! They actually paid someone to come up with that tiebreaker scenario. 🤔
I think UCLA is a different beast… They are seasoned and been there done that… USC is still growing.
Thank you glad. I have been preaching this.. It’s why we play the games. Everyone reads the prognostications and recruiting rankings and instantly figures this should be the best team ever, sweet 16, top 3 pac 12 etc…. Based on that we under achieved? Personally, I am happy with where we are as a team and program.. There will be growing pains evident in close losses and performance will fluctuate based on our youth, but we are trending up!
I am encouraged by seeing more layups, dunks, offensive rebounds and plays around the basket. Throw in the 3's and they definitely are a better team offensively. Other teams will have to pick their poison. The defense is also starting to assert itself into the equation.
The Cougs only lost to Arizona once and split with Ariz St. The Huskies lost to Arizona twice and beat Ariz St. in their only meeting. That turned out to be the difference. Seems like a pretty bizarre tie breaker. I agree with the notion that the only real difference this makes is who they play in the 2nd round. I would prefer USC to UCLA but to get to the finals we probably have to beat both so maybe it doesn't really matter.
Again, only the Pac 12 media had WSU ranked somewhere near the bottom. Everyone else: ESPN, 247, Ken Pom, Athlon, Phil Steele, etc, had WSU ranked, 4,5,6 in conference.
It might matter because if WSU gets 2 wins, in Pac 12 tourney, to go to 13-10 in conference, and to 20-14, etc, they would have about a 25% to 49% chance to sneak into the NCAA tournament.
WSU's best chance odds wise to get those 2 wins, would be Utah, USC, over instead of Cal, UCLA.
WSU has about a 90% to beat Cal, and about a 13% to 23% Chance to beat UCLA.
WSU would have about a 90% chance to beat Utah, and about a 33% to 49% to beat USC.
I will sound like a broken record here (and I could be wrong), but until we have at least three guys on the court that can break a defender down off the dribble and also hit jumps shots off the dribble we will struggle to get to that next level. We had/have Flowers who can do that, Roberts can do that (but he is vertically challenged and passing is not his strength), and Bamba can sort of do that. Other than that, can anyone think of another player who can consistently do those things? I can't. We really need a point guard next season who can do that and who is physically tough/built. I'm not sure if Rice is that guy. JK certainly isn't and looks to be gone for next season anyway.
Imo to get to the next level we need to implement an offense that doesn’t rely on being able to break a defender down off the dribble. It is obviously important to have players who if all else fails, late in the shot clock can get a good shot on their own. However that shouldn’t be your offense it should be the fall back when your offense fails. Ball movement, cuts, screens to the ball and away from the ball, general movement without the ball all done with a purpose is really lacking.
I partially agree and disagree.
Jourdand is right that need all those things.
But I would add to that, that a Post, or Big man INSIDE game, AND the ability to break a defender down off the dribble, to get inside and then to either Dish, or pass to POST, or score.
Also add to that REBOUNDING.
Also add to those things, 3 POINT SHOOTING AND MIDRANGE JUMPER MADE SHOT PERCENTAGE.
Also high freethrow shooting percentage.
WSU has ALL the talent, pieces, etc, to do ALL those things.
So why hasn't it happened then.
1. It has happened recently It's PART of why WSU has won 7 out of last 8, Pac 12 tourny, NIT wins.
2. The players were young, lesser experienced. It takes time to learn how to do all those things combined together.
3. They hadn't played together that much(New pieces, parts, etc), and needed to learn how to play together, jell, chemistry.
4. The bigs were injured earlier, which stunted development,etc. That affected the inside game, which affected guard play.
5. Because young, less experienced players don't always listen, understand, execute, etc, what their coaches,coaching them to do, sometimes a coach will tell his players to do or not do a thing, and the player does it, or doesn't do it. That happened to Smith this year.
6. Once had chemistry, experience, healthy, productive bigs, inside game, better guard play, etc, WSU did better.
7. WSU's extremely athletic, talented players will be seasoned, experienced, chemistry, developed, only losing Flowers as a rotational player, and will have Gueye Efe, Jackson, Jaki, Solomon Ominu(6-10 Nigerian), and Rodman, Bamba at the 3, and Noah at 2,:Tyrell Roberts at the 1, PG, with Rice backing up PG, and Rapp at 2,3, and maybe Koulibaly(we don't know if he is coming back or not, no proof either way), and maybe a transfer guard.
That team next year will be able to do Post, inside game, ball movement, cuts, screens, breaking defenders down off dribble, driving inside, shoot good shot selection, open 3 pointers, mid range jumper at higher better made shot percentages, passing, better freethrow percentages, better rebounding, etc, and that will make next season's offense very hard to stop, just like it's making WSU's offense harder to stop in the NIT.
And if Noah goes back to the 40 point in a game form, that could also make WSU offense hard to stop.
And if WSU continues only having 6 turnovers in a game, and continue to play lockdown defense, WSU would, will be hard to stop next season.
Maybe you're right. But what I've seen in numerous FFs is the defenses are so tough and relentless that you have to have players that can do that (break down defenders off the dribble). It may not be the first option, but you must have players with that skillset. We just don't (with a couple of exceptions noted).
WSU's offense is fairly efficient. According to Kenpom, they are 77th in the country. WSU averages 108.3 points per 100 possessions.
Okay...but 77th isn't all that impressive if we want to get to where we all want to go (big dance, for one).
Agree with everything else you wrote, Mik. But Flowers is the last guy on the team who can be considered a rotational player. He's by far tops on the team in minutes played per game (along with points, assists, FT & 3-point FG %) and only takes a breather or two each game unless he's in foul trouble. I don't think it will be easy to replace him, but I have faith Smith will either bring in someone from the portal (assuming a couple of guys leave and open up some spots) or someone from the current group will step up big time....likely TJ Bamba.
Glad Cougar
WSU is 26th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency giving up 93 points per 100 possessions on average. That is easily good enough. Plus, this team is a lot better when everyone is healthy. This team we are seeing now, is good enough to make it to the dance. They just had to learn how to win, and to get healthy.
Correct, players can and do act on their own accord. But not for long! If I tell a player to do something and he fails while trying that’s one thing ,if he chooses not to do what I tell him that’s a whole different situation. Coach is responsible for what his players do or don’t do.
While 100% agree with you about the offense, I believe the biggest issue this year were the injuries..Having our bigs in and out of the lineup, losing bamba, and I believe Noah’s issue are at least partially related to his early season COVID bout…We were just not able to gel or play consistently… What I see now is more of what I expected all year long..
Flowers is both a key starter, key rotational player. And yes he can be hard to replace, IF WSU didn't have Tyrell Roberts, Noah, Bamba, then he would be harder to replace, an or since Smith has proven he can get a transfer like a Tyrell Roberts, like a Flowers, and since Smith does have Tyrell Roberts, Noah, Bamba, then Flowers is semi easier to replace.
And I think it's more likely Tyrell Roberts, or Noah replaces Flowers, over Bamba.
Bamba will be good, but probably not that good. At least Noah was ALL UNIVERSE before this season, and I think he can be that again. Will he? Maybe, Maybe not.
Tyrell took over games at times, games, just like Flowers. And that was his 1st transfer year. Transfers most of the time do better their 2nd year after they transfer, so I think Tyrell Roberts could semi somewhat semi easily replace, replicate Flowers next season.
And even if no one guard replaces, duplicates Flowers scoring, COLLECTIVELY they could semi somewhat semi easily semi somewhat replace Flowers, which would be good enough because of their combined better CHEMISTRY, experience, better executed offensive system, and BETTER INSIDE GAME BY THE BIGS, and because of the REBOUNDING, not as much turnovers, better freethrows, etc.
So a Flowers type probably wouldn't have to CARRY the team.
And if a player, guard, does replace a Flowers, that would be a BONUS.
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I have confidence Smith will plug what ever holes he feels we have thru recruiting. He has proven to be a very apt recruiter both with freshmen and transfers.
What wholes will need to be filled is really yet to be seen since in todays world it is almost certain WSU will loose some players to the portal.
What wholes will need to be filled is really yet to be seen since in todays world it is almost certain WSU will loose some players to the portal.
The only player who has left is Koulibaly(Bad decision)
And the only other players who might leave is Rapp and Rosario.
Rapp could be a semi hole if lost, leaves.
So the only hole is #1 Back up DEPTH at Guard, since Tyrell, Noah, Bamba will be the starters, and good enough as the starters with Tyrell as PG, Noah at the 2, and Bamba as a co starter with Rodman, at the 3.
And as you said Jourdand, Smith should be able to get a solid back up transfer guard at minimum.
And since Rodman will be gone after next season, WSU Smith needs to get a 6-7 3,wing to help replace Rodman, and in case Rosario leaves, leaving only Bamba at the 3 after next season.
So really the only semi hole is needing a transfer guard.
And other then Rosario, Rapp who might or might not leave, probably no other player will leave.
Efe, Gueye, Jackson, Noah, Tyrell, Rodman, Bamba, Rice are PROBABLY not going to leave. What would be the reason? There is not a LOGICAL reason. They are going to be starters, KEY back ups, WITH LOTS OF PLAYING TIME(except Rice who will probably start, be a key back up, get a lot of playing time, the season after this coming season), on a team that went DEEP into NIT, that is likely to not only MAKE THE NCAA TOURNY, but probably 2nd round to SWEET 16, to ELITE 8.
And same with Jaki as the above players, except that it would be semi THEORETICALLY semi possible since Jake tried to transfer before changing his mind. So still HIGHLY UNLIKELY Jaki transfers.
Rice could THEORETICALLY transfer, but if he cant LOGICALLY see that he is going to get playing time this season, and probably be a starter, key back up, with lots of playing time, next season after this coming season, then oh well, next. But it's still VERY UNLIKELY Rice transfers.
If Bamba wasn't going to be a Co starter, key back up, with lots of playing time, that he is, then Bamba would semi might probably transfer. But since he is going to be a Co starter, key back up, get lots of playing time, then he is PROBABLY staying.
The ONLY players who have a LOGICAL reason to transfer are Rosario, Rapp.
Rice might transfer AFTER this coming season, if he doesn't get playing time.
And there doesn't seem to be rumblings of anybody not getting along, with other players, Smith, fans, etc.
WSU COULD still have someone else beside Rosario and Rapp transfer, it's just NOT likely, but if it happens, then it happens.
I'm not really worried about it, LAST YEAR'S CORE will largely remain intact enough to have a season even better then last season.
The way things are in today's college basketball, nothing should surprise anyone when it comes to transferring. I, too, have a feeling Noah will be wearing a different uniform next year. I'd like him to finish his career as a Cougar, but he may want a fresh start somewhere else. Who knows?
I can see Rapp transferring for grad school much like Kunc did....since he's solid academically and reportedly on track to get his degree this spring. Rosario is a man of mystery. I'm not sure anyone on this board can truly know what these young men are thinking, but they don't fit the mold of pre-portal players.
Glad Cougar
I can see Rapp transferring for grad school much like Kunc did....since he's solid academically and reportedly on track to get his degree this spring. Rosario is a man of mystery. I'm not sure anyone on this board can truly know what these young men are thinking, but they don't fit the mold of pre-portal players.
Glad Cougar
I can see Rodman leaving for more of a feature role but I really hope he sticks around and finishes what he’s started (getting wsu to the dance). He can go play his covid year at a Big West school and tear it up after we go to the tournie next year.
Rodman is going to Co Start with Bamba at the 3 spot. He is probably not going anywhere.
Noah is going to Start at the 2 spot. He is probably not going to transfer either.
I agree with mikalalas. I don't see Noah bolting. His dad is Guy who is a huge COUG and played for Raveling. Sure, Noah could bolt, but because of who his dad is, Noah will most likely finish out his career at Washington State.
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