Diminishing football would have an unquantifiable negative impact in visibility, which would show up in enrollment to some degree. But it wouldn’t threaten campus existence. WSU’s own numbers show that the entire athletic department brings in about $70M per year, and it’s known that the bulk of that is football. And, the AD spends every penny of it, plus another $5-10M. They’re not funneling cash into the university coffers. Never have. Even if they were, the legislative allocation to WSU in the most recent supplementary budget was just shy of $581M. The entire AD revenue would be ~11% of the state funded budget. Big enough a piece to notice, but not an existential crisis. Oh, and the university also pulls down another $300+M in research dollars and $275M in tuition….so that AD revenue (which doesn’t fund the university anyway) is actually less than 6%.
As you said, downgrading our conference affiliation would carry a negative impact, but it's not going to be an On/OFF switch.
If we get relegated to a redhead hybrid football league with the remaining P12 and MWC programs, our TV revenue would take a big hit, but it wouldn't drop to zero. With streaming services now in play, I would venture a guess that a new MWC league will pay out $6-10M/school, and that's assuming that all of the P5 pac-12 programs outside of Oregon State join other leagues and leave us with MWC programs. If Stanford, Cal, SDSU, and some of the Southern 4 programs remain, the number will be higher.
If this happens, WSU will likely receive at least $2M/year in "alimony" compensation from UW if they bolt for the B!G for Big12, and that number could be higher. We'll also receive some scheduling perks that won't be afforded to our new conference members. We'll likely retain our yearly Apple Cup game with UW, and as such, will hopefully negotiate a hefty payout for it. UW alumni do not want that game to disappear, so they'll pay to play it. We'll also likely be able to carve out a similar, albeit not yearly, agreement with Oregon.
As far as the new conference schedule goes, it'll be a downgrade for sure, but it won't be Big Sky. A 6 game home schedule would like this some years.
Idaho/Montana/Big Sky opponent
UW/Oregon/Oregon State
Miscellaneous non conference opponent
Boise State
Fresno State
Air Force
It's not as sexy as our current schedule, but again, it's not Big Sky. Apple Cup would still sell out. Idaho on Labor Day would still draw close to 30K. Homecoming would still draw like homecoming. Parents weekend would still draw. We'll have some stinker home games, but we have that now.
Then, don't forget that we'll be playing for a spot in the CFB playoff as conference champion, so in some years, home games vs. Wyoming or UNLV in November will have a lot riding on them.
Yea, it's not going to be as good, but it's not Big Sky.