If you’re watching Ohio State tonight.
- Thread starter CougPatrol
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Fields' deep ball needs a ton of work still. But then again, I think Lawrence isn't going to be legend at the next level either.
Interesting debate on this. Lot of that going around last night. I still think Lawrence is a cant miss, and I’d take him if I’m a GM. Fields has that Mahomes upside but I also think there’s a decent chance he could bust. I’ve seen him play when he’s been confused, and he has a tendency to make mistakes. I actually think Mac Jones is the safer pick and will be a quality NFL QB - Matt Stafford type
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The speculation for quite a while is that either the Jets or the Jaguars would end up with the first pick. We all know that Minshew is with the Jags, and we love the guy. He has been struggling to do great and get wins when he is the starter, and I think the main reason for that is the real lack of good players around him. On both sides of the ball, not just on offense. So here is a question-is Minshew good enough to be a decent to good QB in the NFL and get a team to playoffs if the talent around him is sufficiently upgraded? And if Jacksonville ends up with the number one pick in the draft, would it be better for them to pick Lawrence with the #1 overall pick or trade that pick for a haul of draft picks and good quality established players?
I am not an expert talent evaluator by any stretch of the imagination, but it seems to me that the Jags would be better served going for trading off that #1 pick and greatly upgrading their overall talent base. I think that the Mississippi Mustache can be a decent NFL QB if the rest of the team is greatly improved. Maybe not up to a Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson level, but better than many of the other guys starting in the league.
Let's hear what the the rest of you prospective NFL GM's have to say.......
Jags draft Lawrence because it will help sell tickets and increases franchise value.
Also lessens the need to pimp themselves out for the London game(s)
I kind of agree with you. Although i thunk at best Minshew would be an Alex Smith type...which is certainly very survivable.
I think mainly NFL GMs have FOMO syndrome and do NOT want to that guy that missed out on the next Aaron Rogers or whomever.
Can't really fault someone for picking the one player nearly everone agrees is a surefire franchise QB. That's all I have to say about that.
There are only so many super star qbs out there to be had. I think some teams chase what they think is a Super Bowl qb when the rest of their team is so bad they are nowhere near the playoffs. Now they have a big time qb but havent really changed their situation. That situation being.... you cant really see what you have at qb because your talent around him still sucks. Diff guy, same situation.
If it’s me, I trade the pick for as many 1st and 2nd round picks as I can get. Im gonna help GM now on offense and see what I can do for the defense.
Minshew is definitely a decent starting QB in the NFL. His efficiency numbers on a terrible team have proved it. Jax will not trade that pick although they would get a Kings ransom if they were open to it ( I’d bet 2 additional first rounders + for moving down 5-10 spots). Interesting to see if they trade Minshew or hang on to him as insurance the way Philly did w Foles. Seems like probably the latter as they already tanked his value by not playing him at the end of the season.
Your right
BUT
1. Not every team that has done that strategy has BOTH the Skill(Talent evaluation)(Knowledge of what players will likely fall to what, and what players wont fall, and what they can get at each spot in the round)+ Luck + Development + coaching + etc, to make that work.
2. Even if they are capable, able to do that, will they do that? Probably not. Most teams wont do it, an or are not able to do it.
The Patriots, and The Seahawks have done it.
Can the Jags do it? Doubtful, probably not, due to lack of good scouts, leaders, coaching, management, ownership, etc.
Jags need to trade that #1 pick away, get a slew of picks, then pick:
1. OL
2. RB
3. WR
4. DL
5. OL
6. CB
7. QB
8. TE.
9. Best available the rest of the way.
If they do that, and if they do a good job on scouting, evaluation. If they develop them, coach them, hire the best personel to do those things, and get a little bit lucky, then they will be fine with Minshew.
But that's a big if, and it's a mute point. Because they either will refuse to do that an or are incapable of doing that due to bad scouting, bad evaluation, bad development, bad coaching, bad management, bad ownership.
I love Gardner Minshew, but if you have the opportunity to get a franchise QB, which I believe Trevor Lawrence to be, you have to keep that #1 pick. IMO, Lawrence is more of a sure thing than any of the players they could pick up with the additional selections from trading the #1 pick. Jacksonville already has the Rams' #1 pick and Vikings #2 pick. Jags also have a ton of salary cap availability, I think. With a top notch QB like Lawrence, they may be able to attract and sign some pretty damn good free agents over the next couple of years.
Keep the pick, choose Lawrence.
Glad Cougar
Keep the pick, choose Lawrence.
Glad Cougar
How many talented free agents are signing with a rookie qb? Especially with performance clauses tied to their contracts?
It seems like they have a ton of holes to fill. The only move they really have to make is choose wisely with their picks. Whatever direction they go they cant afford to miss.
Remarkable to think that Georgia dumped Fields because they didn’t know how or where to use him. Meanwhile, they finished this season with 2 losses because their 4 deep at QB was unreliable... and OSU looks to be the class of CFB with Fields taking snaps
Salary cap issues for many teams, especially the good ones, will nearly guarantee some good free agents will have to sign with a team like Jacksonville. The Jags already have several extra draft picks, and own two #1s and two #2s. Not taking the best QB in the draft with one of those 4 picks would be a mistake, IMO. There really is no other QB close to Lawrence in this draft. I'll be shocked if they trade that top pick.
Glad Cougar
They gotta hit on them all. If they’re gonna make a run with a qb on a rookie deal, they have to sign big time help on the defense and draft help for TL on offense.
Yup this is a good way to build a winner in the NFL. Get a Rookie who’s NFL ready and build around him while he’s in his rookie contract.
Can't wait to watch Ryan Day get buttwhooped by Saban. And then watch as Day gets exposed soon after all Urban's recruits are gone.
Day did his job, he beat Dabo.
Day did his job, he beat Dabo.
Day isn’t as good of a coach as Urban, but recruiting at Ohio State doesn’t drop off. They select the kids they want.
I’m curious why you’d say that with certainty. Arguably OSU should have beat Clemson last year and Clemson went on to trounce Bama. I’m no OSU fan but I can see when a team has been out-coached, and Dabo and Venables had their lunch money stolen on Friday. And aside from probably only Saban those two guys are among the most successful coaches in CFB right now.
Agree. It’s TBD. He’s got an opportunity. To be the champ you have to beat the champ.
I guess I’m not saying it definitively. I’m giving the nod to Urban based on his success at multiple programs. Winning at OSU is expected and almost a given
I’m not a Buckeye fan, but I’m originally from the East coast and spent 9 years in Pennsylvania. Ohio State is a monster program. I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s more of a Kingdom than a program. If you want to talk winning culture, start with Ohio State.
Some other programs catch lightening in a bottle and rise up for a few years, but every damn year Ohio State has the biggest, meanest lunch pail bruisers, and in the post Woody Hayes era, they’ve married them to the best skill players.
Alabama has that. USC had it, but lost it. If I were the Trojans AD, I’d copy Ohio State’s model. Pay Urban whatever he wants and get out of the way.
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I think the decision is on Urban’s wife. Otherwise he would’ve taken the UT job.
My opinion typically is that if you have the #1 pick, you have more problems than you can solve with 1 pick AND there are very few players who can single-handedly turn a bad team into a good one. From a pure team-building perspective, I’d say it’s almost always a better idea to trade down and stockpile picks. It’s the business perspective that usually makes teams chase the “can’t miss” draft prospects...but even when those do pan out, it usually takes a few years and a larger infusion of talent. I go for the infusion of talent now.
But, there’s another variable. The Jags are going to have something like $80 million in cap space and should hit the free agent market hard. In their position, I’d be looking for a veteran QB who can still play, and can act as mentor to a young QB. I would not pay for a Philip Rivers, but maybe someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Andy Dalton. I’d also try to land some OL help, and at least one proven pass rusher. Might also look for a crafty veteran DB to help coach up some youth there.
Depending on what I landed in free agency, I’d develop my full draft strategy. I gather offers from everyone in the top 10 and see what they’ll give me for #1. I want to swap #1s, and they can throw in picks and players as sweeteners. I’m really not inclined to take Lawrence, I’d rather use his rights as bait for picks in the first 2 rounds. I’m willing to see what Minshew can do with upgraded talent around him, and he’s so cheap there’s really no reason not to keep him.
As for Minshew’s future prospects, I think at worst he’s a reliable backup who will work hard and won’t lose games. He’s a leader and makes others better, and he’s good to have in the locker room. He's not going to carry the team on his own (few can), but we have not seen what he can do with a good supporting cast. Whether I’m in Jacksonville or any other team, for the $850K he makes, I’m willing to give him a look.
That's why the Seahawks got Russell Wilson in the 2nd Round, and was able to trade down for more picks, to goto the Superbowl.
Thats why the Patriots, got Tom Brady in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, round, and went to the Superbowl 4,5,6,7 times.
That's why the Ram's did so well with what's his name that was a undrafted Free Agent, who then went into the Arena League, and then went on to be a awesome NFL QB.
That's why Drew Brees, not a high draft pick, also went to the superbowl.
Then there is Fouts, Warren Moon, also not high draft picks
That's why the Raiders did so well with Jamarcus Russel. NOT
That's why San Diego Chargers did so good with Ryan Leaf. NOT.
This is not to say that its not possible to to draft a QB as a top 2,3,4 pick, and then goto playoffs, superbowl with that.
Its possible, BUT you have to have to get lucky.
About 75% of the time. When a team drafts a QB as the #1,2,3 pick of the draft, about 75% of the time, the QB ends up not being a great QB. 23% of time the QB is awesome. About 25% of time the QB is average. About 25% of time QB is below average. 25% of time QB is as bad as Jamarcus Russell.
Its just to big of a risk, gamble, cost(about 17 million to 43 Million)
Its better to do it the way The Seahawks, Patriots, etc, did, do it, by picking up a QB in bottom of 1st round, 2nd round, bottom of 2nd, Top of 3rd Round, and trade that #1 pick down for more picks, then use those picks to build around that QB taken lower in rounds 1,2,3,4.
I think the GM (the underlying assumptions are that the GM and owner care and want to win), has to consider what happens in 2021 too. You have to figure the Jags are in line for a top 5 pick in 2022 also. They need Ed's three year rebuild plan.
Minshew should be on the trading block. That doesn't mean he must be traded, just that the Jags are willing to make a move. He's proven he can play in the league and that obviously has value.
Did Foles leave via free agency or did Philly get something for him I can’t remember? At the time I thought it was dumb that they didn’t trade him, but then they ended up needing him to win the SB, so it worked out. In those scenarios I’d say that’s more the exception than the rule and it’s smarter to trade a guy and get something for him than let him go for nothing. Supposing they keep Minshew, I’d seriously doubt that team is going on a legit SB run within the next couple years even if Lawrence is all he’s hyped up to be. That said my bet is they keep Minshew as insurance until his contract is up.
Nope. Apples and oranges here. You are comparing QBs pre slotted rookie contracts vs post. Completely different worlds, try again.
Foles was in Philly twice. Second time, after the SB Philly did not pick up his option and he signed in Jacksonville as a free agent.
The problem for Mishew is they don't need insurance when they suck. You can't win less than zero games. Minshew's contract is part of his value- four years at 6th round money for a guy that can play. I assume Luton is a little cheaper insurance anyway.
With what they’ve got in picks and cap space, 2021 is the year to make a move. If they’re picking top 5 again in 2022, they’ve failed.
And, I don’t think they can get much in trade for Minshew at this point. They undermined his trade value themselves when they chose Glennon over him.
Maybe the calculus changes if they pick up someone via trade or free agency, but right now he has greater value to them staying on their roster - largely because he’s cheap.
95, for the most part I think you are right about this (unfortunately). But I would not completely write off his trade value, though as you say they devalued it a bit themselves. There are never enough good QB's in the NFL, particularly one that can work in an offense that requires a QB to be at least somewhat mobile. I have no idea what the Jax "brain trust" thinks their strategy will be...but they could pick up several good bodies for an experienced back up QB. Every year there are several NFL teams that need one of those. If the Jax folks were rational, we could make some predictions or at least talk about odds. With these guys, though, I would not know where to start.
All true. But I think the same reasons he could be traded are the ones that say he should stay. He’s young, he has some experience, he’s cheap, and he has upside. Probably more upside than Luton or Glennon.
But, if the Jags can get a starter in free agency, or If someone offers a 2nd rounder - maybe even a 3rd - for him, he becomes easier to part with. But I think he’s a better value to retain...and I would not use the #1 pick on Lawrence. I’d trade it.
EDIT: That’s my thoughts on what Jacksonville should do. For Minshew’s sake, I hope they let him go. I really like the idea of him playing a season or two behind a future hall of famer like Drew Brees (and really, how perfectly would his personality fit in New Orleans?)
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I think you are taking some edge cases and making them the rule.
Every team in the AFC playoffs this year has a 1st round QB, most are top 15 picks.
On the NFC side it's a bit more diverse, but still 4 of 7 were 1st rounders and Brees was the 1st pick of the 2nd round.
So 11 of 14 were 1st rounders. Two were #1 overall (Mayfield and Smith)
If Rodgers wins the MVP, that's 3 straight years a 1st rounder won it.
The best QB talent is at the top and those are the winners in the league, Russ and Brady are the exceptions. Not all of them hit, but when they do, they hit much bigger than mid round QBs.
The NFL frequently misses on pre-draft QB evaluations, but they rarely miss on established QBs. Minshew is a nice player who may end up being a higher end #2 or even a spot starter, but I don’t see him as an entrenched starting QB.
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After 2 seasons the last thing I would wanna do is sit behind another guy. There comes a point when you aren't learning anything by not playing. You learn by being on the field.
Constantly changing your QB isn't going to move your team forward. If they don’t see GM as their future, if Im him I want a trade.
Some teams do a good job of developing QBs and some are a train wreck. Avoid the train wrecks at all costs.
Doesn’t really matter what he wants, he’s in his rookie deal and he has to play it out. I’d love to see him traded...selfishly as a Broncos fan I’d love to see him in Denver, because with some weapons and a good defense he’s a great option...much better than Lock. Problem is Jax F’d his trade value by playing inferior guys instead of him, so now they probably keep him. He might get them a 5th rounder...personally I think he’s worth a middle to late 2nd and that’s what I’d trade for him if I’m running a team without a QB.
The quarterback that can come in as a rookie and get blasted game after game, lose game after game, and come out of that two years later as an all-Pro is pretty damed rare. When I watched the NFL consistently, the only guy that did that was Aikman. If I ever played GM, I'd get the best corners, defensive tackles, and offensive linemen I could find, and do the best I could elsewhere. Quarterback play can make an average team good, or a good team great, but it can't make a terrible team good.
I think he prob has enough film to show what he can do. If there are teams that think he can help them they’ll make an offer.
I wasnt naysaying 1st round QB picks. I was, am Naysaying TOP of the 1st round(about picks 1,2,3 of the 1st round of draft)
When a team picks a QB, as a Number 1 pick of the 1st round:
1. It cost them about 17 million to 43 Million per year at most, to that per multi year contract at minimum.
That takes up a HELL of a lot of Cap Space, making it so that there usually isnt enough either cap space or money to get what need to win, in addition to the #1 pick Jamarcus Russel. And that's assuming the QB is a Tom Brady, Rodgers, etc.
2. For whatever reason, whether its lack of talent evaluation, hype, not having supporting cast, etc, USUALLY about 67% to 73% of the time the #1 pick, Jamarcus Russel usually doesnt work out. And if they do work out, its usually with, at, on a 2nd, 3rd team, and not with the team that drafted them.
About 25% of the time the Number 1 pick of 1st round, is great. About 25% they are average. About 25% they are below average. About 25% they are as bad as Jamarcus Russel.
But again even if they are Rodgers, etc, they dont get the supporting cast around them to help them succeed.
Its a huge risk, gamble, risking 17 to 100 million in either per year or per multi year contract.
Thats too much money to put up as a gamble to maybe might get a Rodgers.
And Spending a #1 pick on a QB is to much to put up on a chance the QB might be a Rodgers.
Its better to Either:
1. Use the #1 pick on a LT, DL, because they are almost as important or just as important as a QB.
2. A LT or DL work out more often then a QB picked at #1.
3. If you trade down and get 2 1st rounders, and 2 2nd rounders, etc, instead of the Number 1 pick of 1st round, you can get your QB, 13th pick to last pick of 1st round, and get a LT, DL, etc, to help your QB win.
The only problem with that approach, is that you have to be as good as the Patriots, Seahawks at EVALUATING, and drafting picking
The Seahawks have whiffed on first rounders as much as anybody. They’ve made their drafts by moving down and hitting later picks.
Again, bringing JaMarcus Russell into this is senseless. When he was drafted there wasn’t rookie slotting, so he got paid a fortune before taking a snap. Russell, Bradford, Couch, Leaf...the teams who drafted them were trainwrecked if they didn’t pan out because they were paid top 10 QB money before taking a snap...and there wasn’t the same incentive to earn the big second contract, because their first contract was enormous. In 2021 if you draft a guy #1 he’s slotted at like $10 mill/yr. still a lot of money but nothing compared to the $40 mill that the top guys are making. So if you have a can’t miss franchise guy, it’s a value now. Luck was the last one of those guys, but most see Lawrence as that guy. Jax has to take him. Now from a salary cap perspective you are paying your franchise QB $10 mill vs everyone else who has a true franchise QB $35mill or more. You’ve got cap room for an all-pro LT and whatever else you need to build a team around them. And if you whiff on the QB you eat $10 mill/yr vs $35+. Big difference.
