If you’re watching Ohio State tonight.

[mikalalas]

The Seahawks have whiffed on first rounders as much as anybody. They’ve made their drafts by moving down and hitting later picks.
Again, bringing JaMarcus Russell into this is senseless. When he was drafted there wasn’t rookie slotting, so he got paid a fortune before taking a snap. Russell, Bradford, Couch, Leaf...the teams who drafted them were trainwrecked if they didn’t pan out because they were paid top 10 QB money before taking a snap...and there wasn’t the same incentive to earn the big second contract, because their first contract was enormous. In 2021 if you draft a guy #1 he’s slotted at like $10 mill/yr. still a lot of money but nothing compared to the $40 mill that the top guys are making. So if you have a can’t miss franchise guy, it’s a value now. Luck was the last one of those guys, but most see Lawrence as that guy. Jax has to take him. Now from a salary cap perspective you are paying your franchise QB $10 mill vs everyone else who has a true franchise QB $35mill or more. You’ve got cap room for an all-pro LT and whatever else you need to build a team around them. And if you whiff on the QB you eat $10 mill/yr vs $35+. Big difference.

Yes the Seahawks have whiffed more then anybody 1976 to about 2004.

But over the last 16 years and especially during Pete Carrol's, and the last 1,2,3 most recent GM, and most recent Ownership, the Seahawks have done better then most.

But even if disagree, there shouldnt be disagreement on Belichick, Kraft, and the Patriots.

Highly doubt a #1 pick QB is getting anything less then about 16 Million.

Now maybe in a bad QB draft year, a #1 pick QB gets 5 to 10 Million. But in a Good QB Draft Year, where a Rodgers goes #1 in draft, they are probably getting 16 million to 25 million per year.

Doubtvthat a Rodger's esque #1 QB pick at #1 pick in 1st round, is only getting about 7 mill to 10 Mill to 13 mill.

And at about 14 Mill to 23 mill, that's still too much Money/Cap risk for a #1 pick QB.

A LT, or DL is a better #1 pick then a #1 QB pick.

And trading that Rodger's esque #1 QB pick spot in1st round of draft, for the 10th pick in 1st round, and the 23rd pick of 1st round in either this draft, or next years draft, with 2,3 2nd round picks, etc, where can get either a LT, DL, QB as the 10th pick of 1st round, and then a LT DL QB at #23. And then a LT DL WR, DB, RB, in 2nd round picks, etc, is way better then picking Lawrence at #1, PROVIDED your a good evaluator of talent, a good trader, a good developer, good coach, good draft picker, etc.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

NFL rosters are almost more of a numbers game than they are a case of identifying the right star. I think most NFL teams would be well served to trade a high 1st round pick for two 2nd round picks, even if they were the last 2 in the round. Maybe even a second round and two third rounders. Certainly a second rounder and a proven talent that is not starting somewhere else. I equate it a bit to the "take 5 O linemen every year" strategy at the college level. Talent evaluation is not a science, it is an art. You have more info to use at the pro level in evaluating college kids than you have at the college level, evaluating high school kids. But NFL teams still end up with high round busts. Way too many high round busts, IMHO, into whom they have sunk a lot of money. Minshew is a somewhat unusual opportunity for an NFL team, and he won't fit what every team is looking for. But for a team who wants a QB that can make something happen while operating at a significant talent deficit, and who has shown that he is rather durable despite spending more than the average amount of time out of the pocket, he is almost too good a value (value in terms of potential vs. cost) to pass up. I expect that Jax is getting some overtures. Since the Jax leadership is incompetent, though, I can't predict what they will do.

 

[Glad Cougar]

Rather than going back 14 years to Jamarcus Russell, let's go back just a couple of years to a more relevant example. Cleveland had the #1 pick after an 0-16 season. They were just as bad, if not worse, than this year's Jaguars. They took Baker Mayfield. Within 3 years, they are in the playoffs and a real solid team. In the 2019 draft, the Arizona Cardinals had #1 pick after a 3-13 season. They took Kyler Murray. They just missed the playoffs this year (8-8) in just 2 years of Murray being selected and poised to be a playoff contender over the next several seasons. It's also very possible that Joe Burrow will have Cincy in the playoff picture within the next 3 years. I wouldn't bet against it. Personally, I think Trevor Lawrence is better than Murray, Mayfield, and Burrow....but I'll admit that nothing is for certain. That includes the extra picks the Jags would get for trading away the #1 selection.

And to repeat, Jacksonville already has two first round picks and two second round picks this year. They can easily grab a promising left tackle, defensive tackle, and wide receiver with those picks....while selecting the consensus best QB in the draft. That's the way I would do it as Jacksonville's GM.

Glad Cougar

 

[Glad Cougar]

NFL rosters are almost more of a numbers game than they are a case of identifying the right star. I think most NFL teams would be well served to trade a high 1st round pick for two 2nd round picks, even if they were the last 2 in the round. Maybe even a second round and two third rounders. Certainly a second rounder and a proven talent that is not starting somewhere else. I equate it a bit to the "take 5 O linemen every year" strategy at the college level. Talent evaluation is not a science, it is an art. You have more info to use at the pro level in evaluating college kids than you have at the college level, evaluating high school kids. But NFL teams still end up with high round busts. Way too many high round busts, IMHO, into whom they have sunk a lot of money. Minshew is a somewhat unusual opportunity for an NFL team, and he won't fit what every team is looking for. But for a team who wants a QB that can make something happen while operating at a significant talent deficit, and who has shown that he is rather durable despite spending more than the average amount of time out of the pocket, he is almost too good a value (value in terms of potential vs. cost) to pass up. I expect that Jax is getting some overtures. Since the Jax leadership is incompetent, though, I can't predict what they will do.

One key problem with trading away a first rounder , if I understand it correctly, is that you lose the team option for the 5th year of a contract. Anyone picked after the first round can essentially become a free agent after four years. So if you have a great player who was picked in the first round, you can get that extra year out of him. That's why the Chiefs last year probably had some offers to give up the 32nd pick of the first round so that the other team could secure a player for that fifth year.

To me, the NFL draft and signing system is really complex...and makes my hair hurt! It certainly makes the job of GMs more challenging these days.

Glad Cougar

 

[Coug90]

One key problem with trading away a first rounder , if I understand it correctly, is that you lose the team option for the 5th year of a contract. Anyone picked after the first round can essentially become a free agent after four years. So if you have a great player who was picked in the first round, you can get that extra year out of him. That's why the Chiefs last year probably had some offers to give up the 32nd pick of the first round so that the other team could secure a player for that fifth year.

To me, the NFL draft and signing system is really complex...and makes my hair hurt! It certainly makes the job of GMs more challenging these days.

Glad Cougar

Correct. It’s also worth noting that two of the NFLs best teams deploy a strategy of trading down and getting a lot of picks. Hawks and Pats. I also think if your franchise guy is there for your pick you take him (left tackle at #10 for $5 mill a year when a franchise LT makes $10+). Here’s an overview of what the draftees signed for last year.

2020 NFL Draft First-Round Rookie Salary Projections: What Burrow, Tua And Chase Young Will Make

NFL first-round draft picks are expected to sign deals that are worth $575 million combined and that range from $10.8 million for No. 32 pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire to the $36 million due top selection Joe Burrow.

www.forbes.com

 

[wazzucougs96]

I’m curious why you’d say that with certainty.

Because it has happened literally every year for the past 60 years.

 

[dgibbons]

Rather than going back 14 years to Jamarcus Russell, let's go back just a couple of years to a more relevant example. Cleveland had the #1 pick after an 0-16 season. They were just as bad, if not worse, than this year's Jaguars. They took Baker Mayfield. Within 3 years, they are in the playoffs and a real solid team. In the 2019 draft, the Arizona Cardinals had #1 pick after a 3-13 season. They took Kyler Murray. They just missed the playoffs this year (8-8) in just 2 years of Murray being selected and poised to be a playoff contender over the next several seasons. It's also very possible that Joe Burrow will have Cincy in the playoff picture within the next 3 years. I wouldn't bet against it. Personally, I think Trevor Lawrence is better than Murray, Mayfield, and Burrow....but I'll admit that nothing is for certain. That includes the extra picks the Jags would get for trading away the #1 selection.

And to repeat, Jacksonville already has two first round picks and two second round picks this year. They can easily grab a promising left tackle, defensive tackle, and wide receiver with those picks....while selecting the consensus best QB in the draft. That's the way I would do it as Jacksonville's GM.

Glad Cougar

The billion dollar NFL franchise question is whether Jacksonville is really serious about improving? The Browns weren't, until they were. I think the Cards were not for long while, then dumped a first round QB for Murray.

 

[Stretch 74]

NFL rosters are almost more of a numbers game than they are a case of identifying the right star. I think most NFL teams would be well served to trade a high 1st round pick for two 2nd round picks, even if they were the last 2 in the round. Maybe even a second round and two third rounders. Certainly a second rounder and a proven talent that is not starting somewhere else. I equate it a bit to the "take 5 O linemen every year" strategy at the college level. Talent evaluation is not a science, it is an art. You have more info to use at the pro level in evaluating college kids than you have at the college level, evaluating high school kids. But NFL teams still end up with high round busts. Way too many high round busts, IMHO, into whom they have sunk a lot of money. Minshew is a somewhat unusual opportunity for an NFL team, and he won't fit what every team is looking for. But for a team who wants a QB that can make something happen while operating at a significant talent deficit, and who has shown that he is rather durable despite spending more than the average amount of time out of the pocket, he is almost too good a value (value in terms of potential vs. cost) to pass up. I expect that Jax is getting some overtures. Since the Jax leadership is incompetent, though, I can't predict what they will do.

************************
Wow, lots of great thinking on this topic, and there is obviously no sure fire answer. I will throw some more stuff out there for all to chew on.

First of all, nobody can argue about the incompetence of the Jags in recent years. The good news for them is that they are getting a new GM and new coach this year. Rumors are Urban Meyer at $12,000,000 per year, and that would be a good move for them. Urban knows how to coach and knows top notch talent, and if they get a GM that he works well with they have a good chance to really improve. If Meyer is hired, you have to think he would have the decision on what to do with that #1 pick, especially if he is hired before a GM is.

Found a site that lists all the QB's drafted back to the dark ages. Good site. http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb I have listed all the first round picks back to late 1990's along with some interesting picks from later rounds. Also threw in other interesting picks back to 1970, which is when I started college, so decided to stop there. Scan through them just for fun or go to the site and see other surprises. I have listed the year as well as the overall draft position without showing the round.

So what I got out of that research is that it seems like almost a coin toss as to whether a top three pick turns out to be a great QB or is just average or even a bust. You all can recognize the busts right away. And as you will see, there have been some of the very best quarterbacks that were picked late in the first round or even way down into the 6th round like Tom Brady, although he is obviously the exception to the rule.

Given that additional information, for me the best approach is to trade off that #1 pick for adding to your haul of draft picks. The Jags have 11 picks in this years draft, more than anyone else, and as has been mentioned the have two #1's and two #2's this year. Here is the full look at the draft picks by teams. http://www.tankathon.com/nfl/power_rankings Possible attractive trading partners are the Jets (#2, 10 picks, two first round), Dolphins (#3, two first round), Bengals (#5, 8 picks), Broncos (# 10, 9 picks) and who knows what other teams would be interested.

Whether the Jags go with Minshew , draft a competitor lower down, or pick up a current pro to lead the team, What I can see as a huge benefit is the ability to remake the entire talent level of the team while also remaking the whole culture of the team in only 1-2 years. And depending on what they can get from a trade, a team that grabs TL this year may well still struggle next year, possibly giving the Jags some choice picks next year.

Here is the QB list I cherry picked from the full data set.

2020

1 Joe Burrow

5 Tua Tagovailoa

6 Justin Herbert

2019

1 Kyler Murray

6 Daniel Jones

15 Dwayne Haskins

178 Gardner Minshew

2018

1 Baker Mayfield

3 Sam Darnold

7 Josh Allen

10 Josh Rosen

32 Lamar Jackson

2017

2 Mitchell Trubisky

10 Patrick Mahomes

12 DeShaun Watson

2016

1 Jared Goff

2 Carson Wentz

26 Paxton Lynch

135 Dak Prescott

2015

1 Jameis Winston

2 Marcus Mariota

2014

3 Blake Bortles

22 Johnny Manziel

32 Teddy Bridgewater

162 Jimmy Garoppolo

2013

16 EJ Manuel

2012

1 Andrew Luck

2 Robert Griffen

8 Ryan Tannehill

22 Brandon Weeden

75 Russell Wilson

2011

0 Terrell Pryor

1 Cam Newton

8 Jake Locker

10 Blaine Gabbert

12 Christian Ponder

2010

1 Sam Bradford

25 Tim Tebow

2009

1 Matt Stafford

5 Mark Sanchez

17 Josh Freeman

2008

3 Matt Ryan

18 Joe Flacco

2007

1JaMarcus Russell

22 Brady Quinn

2006

3 Vince Young

10 Matt Leinart

11 Jay Cutler

2005

1 Alex Smith

24 Aaron Rodgers

25 Jason Campbell

2004

1 Eli Manning

4 Phillip Rivers

11 Ben Roethlisberger

22 J P Losman

2003

1 Carson Palmer

7 Byron Leftwich

19 Kyle Boller

22 Rex Grossman

2002

1 David Carr

3 Joey Harrington

32 Patrick Ramsey

2001

1 Michael Vick

32 Drew Brees

2000

18 Chad Pennington

199 Tom Brady

1999

1 Tim Couch

2 Donovan McNabb

3 Akili Smith

11 Daunte Culpepper

12 Cade McNown

1998

1 Peyton Manning

2 Ryan Leaf

1997

26 Jim Druckenmiller

1993

1 Drew Bledsoe

2 Rick Mirer

58 Billy Joe Hobert

118 Mark Brunell

192 Gino Torretta (Heisman winner)

1991

16 Dan McGwire

24 Todd Marinovich

33 Brett Favre

1989

1 Troy Aikman

1983

1 John Elway

7 Todd Blackledge

14 Jim Kelly

15 Tony Eason

24 Ken O’brien

27 Dan Marino

1979

3 Jack Thompson

7 Phil Simms

23 Steve Fuller

82 Joe Montana

1975

1 Steve Bartkowski

1973

64 Dan Fouts

1971

1 Jim Plunkett

2 Archie Manning

3 Dan Pastorini

99 Joe Theismann

1970

1 Terry Bradshaw

3 Mike Phipps

201 Mike Holmgren

 

[Coug90]

************************
Wow, lots of great thinking on this topic, and there is obviously no sure fire answer. I will throw some more stuff out there for all to chew on.

First of all, nobody can argue about the incompetence of the Jags in recent years. The good news for them is that they are getting a new GM and new coach this year. Rumors are Urban Meyer at $12,000,000 per year, and that would be a good move for them. Urban knows how to coach and knows top notch talent, and if they get a GM that he works well with they have a good chance to really improve. If Meyer is hired, you have to think he would have the decision on what to do with that #1 pick, especially if he is hired before a GM is.

Found a site that lists all the QB's drafted back to the dark ages. Good site. http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb I have listed all the first round picks back to late 1990's along with some interesting picks from later rounds. Also threw in other interesting picks back to 1970, which is when I started college, so decided to stop there. Scan through them just for fun or go to the site and see other surprises. I have listed the year as well as the overall draft position without showing the round.

So what I got out of that research is that it seems like almost a coin toss as to whether a top three pick turns out to be a great QB or is just average or even a bust. You all can recognize the busts right away. And as you will see, there have been some of the very best quarterbacks that were picked late in the first round or even way down into the 6th round like Tom Brady, although he is obviously the exception to the rule.

Given that additional information, for me the best approach is to trade off that #1 pick for adding to your haul of draft picks. The Jags have 11 picks in this years draft, more than anyone else, and as has been mentioned the have two #1's and two #2's this year. Here is the full look at the draft picks by teams. http://www.tankathon.com/nfl/power_rankings Possible attractive trading partners are the Jets (#2, 10 picks, two first round), Dolphins (#3, two first round), Bengals (#5, 8 picks), Broncos (# 10, 9 picks) and who knows what other teams would be interested.

Whether the Jags go with Minshew , draft a competitor lower down, or pick up a current pro to lead the team, What I can see as a huge benefit is the ability to remake the entire talent level of the team while also remaking the whole culture of the team in only 1-2 years. And depending on what they can get from a trade, a team that grabs TL this year may well still struggle next year, possibly giving the Jags some choice picks next year.

Here is the QB list I cherry picked from the full data set.

2020

1 Joe Burrow

5 Tua Tagovailoa

6 Justin Herbert

2019

1 Kyler Murray

6 Daniel Jones

15 Dwayne Haskins

178 Gardner Minshew

2018

1 Baker Mayfield

3 Sam Darnold

7 Josh Allen

10 Josh Rosen

32 Lamar Jackson

2017

2 Mitchell Trubisky

10 Patrick Mahomes

12 DeShaun Watson

2016

1 Jared Goff

2 Carson Wentz

26 Paxton Lynch

135 Dak Prescott

2015

1 Jameis Winston

2 Marcus Mariota

2014

3 Blake Bortles

22 Johnny Manziel

32 Teddy Bridgewater

162 Jimmy Garoppolo

2013

16 EJ Manuel

2012

1 Andrew Luck

2 Robert Griffen

8 Ryan Tannehill

22 Brandon Weeden

75 Russell Wilson

2011

0 Terrell Pryor

1 Cam Newton

8 Jake Locker

10 Blaine Gabbert

12 Christian Ponder

2010

1 Sam Bradford

25 Tim Tebow

2009

1 Matt Stafford

5 Mark Sanchez

17 Josh Freeman

2008

3 Matt Ryan

18 Joe Flacco

2007

1JaMarcus Russell

22 Brady Quinn

2006

3 Vince Young

10 Matt Leinart

11 Jay Cutler

2005

1 Alex Smith

24 Aaron Rodgers

25 Jason Campbell

2004

1 Eli Manning

4 Phillip Rivers

11 Ben Roethlisberger

22 J P Losman

2003

1 Carson Palmer

7 Byron Leftwich

19 Kyle Boller

22 Rex Grossman

2002

1 David Carr

3 Joey Harrington

32 Patrick Ramsey

2001

1 Michael Vick

32 Drew Brees

2000

18 Chad Pennington

199 Tom Brady

1999

1 Tim Couch

2 Donovan McNabb

3 Akili Smith

11 Daunte Culpepper

12 Cade McNown

1998

1 Peyton Manning

2 Ryan Leaf

1997

26 Jim Druckenmiller

1993

1 Drew Bledsoe

2 Rick Mirer

58 Billy Joe Hobert

118 Mark Brunell

192 Gino Torretta (Heisman winner)

1991

16 Dan McGwire

24 Todd Marinovich

33 Brett Favre

1989

1 Troy Aikman

1983

1 John Elway

7 Todd Blackledge

14 Jim Kelly

15 Tony Eason

24 Ken O’brien

27 Dan Marino

1979

3 Jack Thompson

7 Phil Simms

23 Steve Fuller

82 Joe Montana

1975

1 Steve Bartkowski

1973

64 Dan Fouts

1971

1 Jim Plunkett

2 Archie Manning

3 Dan Pastorini

99 Joe Theismann

1970

1 Terry Bradshaw

3 Mike Phipps

201 Mike Holmgren

Good list for a reference.
I don’t think there’s any chance Jax trades that pick. They will take Lawrence. As for Minshew, I’d think they’d field offers for him but what could they get. To me there’s only a handful of teams that would be suiters because I don’t think anyone trades for him with the intention of making him a backup (exception being an older QB who’s got maybe one year left).
So to me the only logical landing spots for Minshew are the following (QB):
Carolina (Bridgewater)
Chicago (Trubisky)
Denver (Lock)
Indy (Rivers is old)
Pats (Newton is out - Stidham)
49ers (Jimmy G is out...Bethard)
Redskins (Alex Smith)
Need at least two of these teams to legitimately see him as a franchise QB to get the bid up to where Jax would like the deal (2nd/3rd?). We will see, but I’d say it’s not likely.

 

[95coug]

Given that additional information, for me the best approach is to trade off that #1 pick for adding to your haul of draft picks. The Jags have 11 picks in this years draft, more than anyone else, and as has been mentioned the have two #1's and two #2's this year. Here is the full look at the draft picks by teams. http://www.tankathon.com/nfl/power_rankings Possible attractive trading partners are the Jets (#2, 10 picks, two first round), Dolphins (#3, two first round), Bengals (#5, 8 picks), Broncos (# 10, 9 picks) and who knows what other teams would be interested.

I looked at trade partners a bit too. If I'm GM for JAX, I'm willing to play hardball, because worst case I get Trevor Lawrence.

I talk to the Jets and Dolphins first, and if either of them is willing to give me both of their first rounders, I'll take them. If the Seahawks end up in the conference championship or better, I'd accept the Jets' 1st and 2nd picks. The Dolphins would have to throw me a player, but they've got potentially interesting options at OL, CB, and as pass rushers, so I might be willing to give me #3, a player, and #36/50.

I don't think the Jets have any players that really sweeten the pot, and I don't think the Dolphins will be very motivated to move up. At least one, if not both, of the first 2 picks will be QB and they're not in that market. There are several guys who fill needs for them who will still be on the board at #3, and they might even be able to trade down to #5 and still pick up a true need.

Pretty much everybody else would have to bundle players and/or future picks, which gets harder to evaluate. And if I got the Jets or Dolphins to give me 2 more 1st rounders, you better believe the deals have just started getting made.

 

[Glad Cougar]

************************
Wow, lots of great thinking on this topic, and there is obviously no sure fire answer. I will throw some more stuff out there for all to chew on.

First of all, nobody can argue about the incompetence of the Jags in recent years. The good news for them is that they are getting a new GM and new coach this year. Rumors are Urban Meyer at $12,000,000 per year, and that would be a good move for them. Urban knows how to coach and knows top notch talent, and if they get a GM that he works well with they have a good chance to really improve. If Meyer is hired, you have to think he would have the decision on what to do with that #1 pick, especially if he is hired before a GM is.

Found a site that lists all the QB's drafted back to the dark ages. Good site. http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb I have listed all the first round picks back to late 1990's along with some interesting picks from later rounds. Also threw in other interesting picks back to 1970, which is when I started college, so decided to stop there. Scan through them just for fun or go to the site and see other surprises. I have listed the year as well as the overall draft position without showing the round.

So what I got out of that research is that it seems like almost a coin toss as to whether a top three pick turns out to be a great QB or is just average or even a bust. You all can recognize the busts right away. And as you will see, there have been some of the very best quarterbacks that were picked late in the first round or even way down into the 6th round like Tom Brady, although he is obviously the exception to the rule.

Given that additional information, for me the best approach is to trade off that #1 pick for adding to your haul of draft picks. The Jags have 11 picks in this years draft, more than anyone else, and as has been mentioned the have two #1's and two #2's this year. Here is the full look at the draft picks by teams. http://www.tankathon.com/nfl/power_rankings Possible attractive trading partners are the Jets (#2, 10 picks, two first round), Dolphins (#3, two first round), Bengals (#5, 8 picks), Broncos (# 10, 9 picks) and who knows what other teams would be interested.

Whether the Jags go with Minshew , draft a competitor lower down, or pick up a current pro to lead the team, What I can see as a huge benefit is the ability to remake the entire talent level of the team while also remaking the whole culture of the team in only 1-2 years. And depending on what they can get from a trade, a team that grabs TL this year may well still struggle next year, possibly giving the Jags some choice picks next year.

Here is the QB list I cherry picked from the full data set.

2020

1 Joe Burrow

5 Tua Tagovailoa

6 Justin Herbert

2019

1 Kyler Murray

6 Daniel Jones

15 Dwayne Haskins

178 Gardner Minshew

2018

1 Baker Mayfield

3 Sam Darnold

7 Josh Allen

10 Josh Rosen

32 Lamar Jackson

2017

2 Mitchell Trubisky

10 Patrick Mahomes

12 DeShaun Watson

2016

1 Jared Goff

2 Carson Wentz

26 Paxton Lynch

135 Dak Prescott

2015

1 Jameis Winston

2 Marcus Mariota

2014

3 Blake Bortles

22 Johnny Manziel

32 Teddy Bridgewater

162 Jimmy Garoppolo

2013

16 EJ Manuel

2012

1 Andrew Luck

2 Robert Griffen

8 Ryan Tannehill

22 Brandon Weeden

75 Russell Wilson

2011

0 Terrell Pryor

1 Cam Newton

8 Jake Locker

10 Blaine Gabbert

12 Christian Ponder

2010

1 Sam Bradford

25 Tim Tebow

2009

1 Matt Stafford

5 Mark Sanchez

17 Josh Freeman

2008

3 Matt Ryan

18 Joe Flacco

2007

1JaMarcus Russell

22 Brady Quinn

2006

3 Vince Young

10 Matt Leinart

11 Jay Cutler

2005

1 Alex Smith

24 Aaron Rodgers

25 Jason Campbell

2004

1 Eli Manning

4 Phillip Rivers

11 Ben Roethlisberger

22 J P Losman

2003

1 Carson Palmer

7 Byron Leftwich

19 Kyle Boller

22 Rex Grossman

2002

1 David Carr

3 Joey Harrington

32 Patrick Ramsey

2001

1 Michael Vick

32 Drew Brees

2000

18 Chad Pennington

199 Tom Brady

1999

1 Tim Couch

2 Donovan McNabb

3 Akili Smith

11 Daunte Culpepper

12 Cade McNown

1998

1 Peyton Manning

2 Ryan Leaf

1997

26 Jim Druckenmiller

1993

1 Drew Bledsoe

2 Rick Mirer

58 Billy Joe Hobert

118 Mark Brunell

192 Gino Torretta (Heisman winner)

1991

16 Dan McGwire

24 Todd Marinovich

33 Brett Favre

1989

1 Troy Aikman

1983

1 John Elway

7 Todd Blackledge

14 Jim Kelly

15 Tony Eason

24 Ken O’brien

27 Dan Marino

1979

3 Jack Thompson

7 Phil Simms

23 Steve Fuller

82 Joe Montana

1975

1 Steve Bartkowski

1973

64 Dan Fouts

1971

1 Jim Plunkett

2 Archie Manning

3 Dan Pastorini

99 Joe Theismann

1970

1 Terry Bradshaw

3 Mike Phipps

201 Mike Holmgren

Thanks, Stretch. Forgot about so many of those guys over the years. A funny reference to 2017 draft when the Bears traded up one spot to grab Trubisky by sending the 49ers their #1, #3, #4 picks along with the #3 pick the following season. That's how much they wanted Trubisky. Well, we all know that KC traded up for the 10th pick in the first round and grabbed Mahomes. So now, if you looked closely, there have been several Bears fans in the stands (last year, pre-COVID) wearing a Bears jersey #15 with the name "Mahomes" on the back. Hilarious.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Here is a question.... your team sucks.... you need help all over the field.... do you draft the qb and then fill in around him, knowing it will likely take longer to build than his rookie deal will last.... OR.... do you fill all your other needs and then get your qb on a rookie deal with talent all around him to help????

 

[95coug]

Here is a question.... your team sucks.... you need help all over the field.... do you draft the qb and then fill in around him, knowing it will likely take longer to build than his rookie deal will last.... OR.... do you fill all your other needs and then get your qb on a rookie deal with talent all around him to help????

I’ll take that second option please. Unless I’ve got a bunch of cap space and can upgrade talent ahead of the draft. Even then, I’m afraid of any prospect who’s labeled “can’t miss,” because all too often, they do.

 

[etowncoug]

I’ll take that second option please. Unless I’ve got a bunch of cap space and can upgrade talent ahead of the draft. Even then, I’m afraid of any prospect who’s labeled “can’t miss,” because all too often, they do.

Free agency in the NFL doesn't help you build much of a team. I'd much rather have a handful of picks who fit your system than paying top dollar for a free agent hoping they produce at the same level doing what you do than what they did somewhere else.

In the past 20 years, we can list on one hand the number of impact FA signings the Seahawks have made who we had to pay top dollar for. We've gotten plenty off the scrap heap. More via trade. But we've built through the draft.

Both the Jets and the Jaguars are dumpster fires. They have lots of holes to fill. I'd say trading down is a no brainier but let's face it... they'll likely blow the picks too.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

If I needed help everywhere, I'd try to devote a draft + related trades to build an O line, a D line and maybe find a cornerback who could help. Just suffer through at the rest of the positions. Once I had a line, I could pick up a QB and RB. Rookie QB's behind a shaky line are frequently not long for this world. Rather than waste my chances of developing a QB, I'd build the line first. And since the most important D positions in the NFL are pretty much the same as the PAC; D line and CB; I'd do what I could during that first year to at least help those spots on the D side of the ball.

But if I truly needed help everywhere, the O line is where I would start.

 

[CougSinceBirth]

Here is a question.... your team sucks.... you need help all over the field.... do you draft the qb and then fill in around him, knowing it will likely take longer to build than his rookie deal will last.... OR.... do you fill all your other needs and then get your qb on a rookie deal with talent all around him to help????

The second option is how Seattle and KC won Super Bowls. Elite D's, good playmakers, and a really good young QB.

 

[95coug]

The second option is how Seattle and KC won Super Bowls. Elite D's, good playmakers, and a really good young QB.

In that order, I would add

 

[mikalalas]

Rather than going back 14 years to Jamarcus Russell, let's go back just a couple of years to a more relevant example. Cleveland had the #1 pick after an 0-16 season. They were just as bad, if not worse, than this year's Jaguars. They took Baker Mayfield. Within 3 years, they are in the playoffs and a real solid team. In the 2019 draft, the Arizona Cardinals had #1 pick after a 3-13 season. They took Kyler Murray. They just missed the playoffs this year (8-8) in just 2 years of Murray being selected and poised to be a playoff contender over the next several seasons. It's also very possible that Joe Burrow will have Cincy in the playoff picture within the next 3 years. I wouldn't bet against it. Personally, I think Trevor Lawrence is better than Murray, Mayfield, and Burrow....but I'll admit that nothing is for certain. That includes the extra picks the Jags would get for trading away the #1 selection.

And to repeat, Jacksonville already has two first round picks and two second round picks this year. They can easily grab a promising left tackle, defensive tackle, and wide receiver with those picks....while selecting the consensus best QB in the draft. That's the way I would do it as Jacksonville's GM.

Glad Cougar

NFL sources have said that about 75% of the time, a QB picked as the #1 pick of the 1st round of the draft wont be great, that good, and that about 25% of time, #1, 1st round pick QB be awesome, 25% be average, 25% be below average, 25% are as bad as Jamarcus Russel.

That's not me making that up. That's what I heard, something to that effect from NFL sources.

Thats the way it has USUALLY been HISTORICALLY, with some exceptions.

Guys like Baker Mayfield, Murray, etc, are the equivalent to a recent fad, temporary recent trend, exceptions, outliers, etc.

1. Most to almost all of them that have been successful are spread, Air Raid QB's.

2. That's been during the last 1,2,3,4, etc, years.

3. Before then, most #1 pick of 1st round QB's, like Jamarcus Russel, dont work out.

4. I dont think this recent trend of #1 pick of 1st round QB's succeeding would, will continue.

5. I think this recent trend is like the housing bubble. It will pop within 1,2,3,4 years, and the normal situation of #1 pick of 1st round QB's will go back to being bad and being bad or not as good for teams, would, will resume.

Jacksonville's situation is such; that your right, that the Jags would probably be better served getting that #1 pick of 1st round QB, Lawrence, IF IF IF HE IS NOT A BUST.

IF IF HE IS A BUST tho, the Jags will be stuck with a 5 year 125 million contract that 25 million per year.

Also even if he not a bust, good luck paying him 115 million contract, and then having enough money left over to pay your other 1,2 1st round picks, and 2nd round picks, etc.

Now I know you could say, but what if trade down, and the 13th pick of 1st round QB also bust?

The difference, is that if the 13th pick if 1st round QB bust, your only out about a 5 to 9 million per year, 43 Million contract, instead of 115 million contract.

Alao you have Minshew as INSURANCE.

So Jags should trade #1 pick if 1st round, Lawrence for a #10 pick, and a #23 pick, to go with their other 2 1st rounders.

They would have 4, Four 1st Round picks.

They then pick a QB at #10 pick if 1st round. Pick a LT, DL, LB.

If their #10 pick of 1st round, works out, then awesome.

If not, then ok, they still have minshew, and all the pieces needed to help either Minshew or that #10 QB pick succceed, win. And they are still able to save cap space to sign, re sign players and not lose them prematurely to Free Agency, etc.

 

[Glad Cougar]

NFL sources have said that about 75% of the time, a QB picked as the #1 pick of the 1st round of the draft wont be great, that good, and that about 25% of time, #1, 1st round pick QB be awesome, 25% be average, 25% be below average, 25% are as bad as Jamarcus Russel.

That's not me making that up. That's what I heard, something to that effect from NFL sources.

Thats the way it has USUALLY been HISTORICALLY, with some exceptions.

Guys like Baker Mayfield, Murray, etc, are the equivalent to a recent fad, temporary recent trend, exceptions, outliers, etc.

1. Most to almost all of them that have been successful are spread, Air Raid QB's.

2. That's been during the last 1,2,3,4, etc, years.

3. Before then, most #1 pick of 1st round QB's, like Jamarcus Russel, dont work out.

4. I dont think this recent trend of #1 pick of 1st round QB's succeeding would, will continue.

5. I think this recent trend is like the housing bubble. It will pop within 1,2,3,4 years, and the normal situation of #1 pick of 1st round QB's will go back to being bad and being bad or not as good for teams, would, will resume.

Jacksonville's situation is such; that your right, that the Jags would probably be better served getting that #1 pick of 1st round QB, Lawrence, IF IF IF HE IS NOT A BUST.

IF IF HE IS A BUST tho, the Jags will be stuck with a 5 year 125 million contract that 25 million per year.

Also even if he not a bust, good luck paying him 115 million contract, and then having enough money left over to pay your other 1,2 1st round picks, and 2nd round picks, etc.

Now I know you could say, but what if trade down, and the 13th pick of 1st round QB also bust?

The difference, is that if the 13th pick if 1st round QB bust, your only out about a 5 to 9 million per year, 43 Million contract, instead of 115 million contract.

Alao you have Minshew as INSURANCE.

So Jags should trade #1 pick if 1st round, Lawrence for a #10 pick, and a #23 pick, to go with their other 2 1st rounders.

They would have 4, Four 1st Round picks.

They then pick a QB at #10 pick if 1st round. Pick a LT, DL, LB.

If their #10 pick of 1st round, works out, then awesome.

If not, then ok, they still have minshew, and all the pieces needed to help either Minshew or that #10 QB pick succceed, win. And they are still able to save cap space to sign, re sign players and not lose them prematurely to Free Agency, etc.

If a team is more concerned about their top pick being a bust rather than believing they will be great, they might as well skip the draft. If Trevor Lawrence ends up being another Jamarcus Russell, I will be quick to post that I was wrong and you were right. If I was forced to make a sizable bet on whether Lawrence will turn out to be another Andrew Luck (who he is often compared to) or a Russell, I know where my money is going. Chances are Jacksonville does too.

It's a good debate and I can understand the benefit of trading down. I just don't think the Jags should give up a chance to get the franchise QB that most teams need to have to become a champion. Hoping that Minshew or some other QB that would be available later in the draft can become that franchise QB seems a lot riskier to me. The other positions can be addressed with the available extra picks the Jags already have....and they are more likely to find real good linemen, WRs, defensive backs, RBs, etc....in rounds 2-4 than finding a top QB. Just my opinion.

Glad Cougar

 

[Glad Cougar]

The second option is how Seattle and KC won Super Bowls. Elite D's, good playmakers, and a really good young QB.

True for Seattle. But as a huge KC Chiefs fan since the mid 1960s, I can honestly say the Chiefs haven't had an elite defense for quite some time. They've been more than adequate as a complement to that incredible offense, but not elite. Wish they were.

Glad Cougar

 

[BiggsCoug]

I think it comes down to personal preference. If you want to win a Super Bowl you will likely need a big time QB. The choice comes down to do you want to draft him now and pay him later? Cause it may take you 5 years to get the other pieces in place and by then the window closed. You will not have the money to keep everyone.

Also, who is coming down the road? If you pass on TL this year, who will be there next year or the year after that you could add?

Whether you take TL or not, you will likely be drafting in or near the top 10 again next year. Who they hire matters. If you want to land a bunch of top tier free agents you will need a guy that they know. Top tier FA's have options. Some may be solely dollar driven. Others may be looking for a good fit. None are signing with a coach they know nothing about.

They should prob pay Meyer the $12,000,000 per year he wants. Odds are he will have at least met most of these guys while recruiting for Ohio State.

 

[Coug90]

Here is a question.... your team sucks.... you need help all over the field.... do you draft the qb and then fill in around him, knowing it will likely take longer to build than his rookie deal will last.... OR.... do you fill all your other needs and then get your qb on a rookie deal with talent all around him to help????

I think fans that have good QBs take for granted the world where it’s a pain in the ass to find a quality NFL QB...and every team goes through it at some point. So if you’ve got your guy you take him. Someone made the point about the Chiefs moving up to take Mahomes...yeah I think that was a pretty solid move. There’s never a “sure thing” Remember you can always have a bust at another position. Tony Mandarich. Lawrence Phillips, Ricky Williams, etc. even though QBs get all of the attention.
Back to the financial aspect of it, if the QB you draft is the real deal, you’ve got a guy locked in to a $8-10 million contract for 4 years at a position that is now getting $40. If you like the QB you take him. Just make sure you’ve got a damn good QB coach and the highest priority after that is the O-line. If you put a rookie QB behind a Swiss cheese O-Line you deserve the pink slip you are going to get within a couple of years.

 

[Glad Cougar]

I think fans that have good QBs take for granted the world where it’s a pain in the ass to find a quality NFL QB...and every team goes through it at some point. So if you’ve got your guy you take him. Someone made the point about the Chiefs moving up to take Mahomes...yeah I think that was a pretty solid move. There’s never a “sure thing” Remember you can always have a bust at another position. Tony Mandarich. Lawrence Phillips, Ricky Williams, etc. even though QBs get all of the attention.
Back to the financial aspect of it, if the QB you draft is the real deal, you’ve got a guy locked in to a $8-10 million contract for 4 years at a position that is now getting $40. If you like the QB you take him. Just make sure you’ve got a damn good QB coach and the highest priority after that is the O-line. If you put a rookie QB behind a Swiss cheese O-Line you deserve the pink slip you are going to get within a couple of years.

Excellent post. As you point out, with the NFL's new salary/rookie structure, drafting a potential star QB with the first pick is even more enticing as long as he isn't a bust. If GMs (general managers, not Gardner Minshews) had a crystal ball, the job would be easy and there would never be a horrible draft pick. I recall that KC got a fair share of criticism from the "experts" that they gave up too much (a couple of #1s and other draft picks to move up to the 10th pick) to draft the wrong QB. Many thought Deshaun Watson, a really good QB in his own right, should've been the choice over Mahomes. You never know for sure, but there is also a risk in passing on a potential franchise QB only to regret it later. We'll see what Jacksonville does, but I'll bet Jag fans would be furious if their team trades down.

Glad Cougar

 

[BiggsCoug]

I think fans that have good QBs take for granted the world where it’s a pain in the ass to find a quality NFL QB...and every team goes through it at some point. So if you’ve got your guy you take him. Someone made the point about the Chiefs moving up to take Mahomes...yeah I think that was a pretty solid move. There’s never a “sure thing” Remember you can always have a bust at another position. Tony Mandarich. Lawrence Phillips, Ricky Williams, etc. even though QBs get all of the attention.
Back to the financial aspect of it, if the QB you draft is the real deal, you’ve got a guy locked in to a $8-10 million contract for 4 years at a position that is now getting $40. If you like the QB you take him. Just make sure you’ve got a damn good QB coach and the highest priority after that is the O-line. If you put a rookie QB behind a Swiss cheese O-Line you deserve the pink slip you are going to get within a couple of years.

If you're drafting first your OL prob sucks. To use the top pick on a QB and then not have anyone to block for him just rendered him useless, if not injured. If the Jags go with TL it may not be a bad idea to take OL with the rest of their round 1 and 2 picks. Do they need help everywhere? Yes. But you can't fix everything in 1 draft. Taking the top guy and then putting his nose in the dirt doesn't help. You might as well not have drafted him then. Imo, you fix one side of the ball or the other via the draft, then see what you can get in the FA market. The following year commit to the other side of the ball in the draft and FA's for the offense.

If it's me, selfishly I stick with GM and draft the pieces around the offense to make it go. That is really the only way to find out if he is the guy or not. If he is the guy, you're golden. If he isn't, you're likely in the top 10 again the following year and you have that many more pieces in place on offense.

I do recognize the effect a franchise QB can have. They don't always come along. They're hard to get cause teams don't cut them loose. I will be interested to see in the future how teams choose to build. I wonder if you will see teams commit to the other 21 positions and treat their QB like a college... 4 or 5 years and find someone else rather than pay huge salaries that crush the talent around that player.

 

[Coug90]

If you're drafting first your OL prob sucks. To use the top pick on a QB and then not have anyone to block for him just rendered him useless, if not injured. If the Jags go with TL it may not be a bad idea to take OL with the rest of their round 1 and 2 picks. Do they need help everywhere? Yes. But you can't fix everything in 1 draft. Taking the top guy and then putting his nose in the dirt doesn't help. You might as well not have drafted him then. Imo, you fix one side of the ball or the other via the draft, then see what you can get in the FA market. The following year commit to the other side of the ball in the draft and FA's for the offense.

If it's me, selfishly I stick with GM and draft the pieces around the offense to make it go. That is really the only way to find out if he is the guy or not. If he is the guy, you're golden. If he isn't, you're likely in the top 10 again the following year and you have that many more pieces in place on offense.

I do recognize the effect a franchise QB can have. They don't always come along. They're hard to get cause teams don't cut them loose. I will be interested to see in the future how teams choose to build. I wonder if you will see teams commit to the other 21 positions and treat their QB like a college... 4 or 5 years and find someone else rather than pay huge salaries that crush the talent around that player.

There’s really not a right answer to this conundrum and there’s two very good sides to the debate. Personally I think Minshew is a good NFL QB that could win a Super Bowl if the team was built well around him. Jax hasn’t done that.
Your second point is an interesting one. Think about RBs. Back In the 80s the first couple rounds would be littered with RBs...not anymore! Eventually teams figured out there was so much talent at that position you could use a lower draft pick and get a great back. The draft should reflect basic economic principals...supply and demand. Premium picks should be spent on positions where talent is in short supply. Perhaps there will be a day where there’s a dozen+ QBs in the draft every year that are Mahomes level good...then those guys will be falling out of the top of the draft like RBs do today.

 

[Stretch 74]

If you're drafting first your OL prob sucks. To use the top pick on a QB and then not have anyone to block for him just rendered him useless, if not injured. If the Jags go with TL it may not be a bad idea to take OL with the rest of their round 1 and 2 picks. Do they need help everywhere? Yes. But you can't fix everything in 1 draft. Taking the top guy and then putting his nose in the dirt doesn't help. You might as well not have drafted him then. Imo, you fix one side of the ball or the other via the draft, then see what you can get in the FA market. The following year commit to the other side of the ball in the draft and FA's for the offense.

If it's me, selfishly I stick with GM and draft the pieces around the offense to make it go. That is really the only way to find out if he is the guy or not. If he is the guy, you're golden. If he isn't, you're likely in the top 10 again the following year and you have that many more pieces in place on offense.

I do recognize the effect a franchise QB can have. They don't always come along. They're hard to get cause teams don't cut them loose. I will be interested to see in the future how teams choose to build. I wonder if you will see teams commit to the other 21 positions and treat their QB like a college... 4 or 5 years and find someone else rather than pay huge salaries that crush the talent around that player.

*********************************

To go along with your thoughts and the way I am leaning, how many of the following list of Super Bowl QB's do you all think will end up in the Hall of Fame? Not many, that's for sure, yet each of them was able to lead their team to the SB because the rest of the team was good enough to get there. I think this list is proof that a HOF QB is NOT required to be successful, to reach the Super Bowl. Remember, one of the best QB's of all time, Dan Fouts, never made it to the Super Bowl and there are probably a couple others that I don't recall right now. Dan Marino only made it to one also.

Here is the list:

• Len Dawson
• 
  
• Daryle Lamonica
• 
  
• Earl Morral
• 
  
• Joe Kapp
• 
  
• Craig Morton
• 
  
• Bob Griese
• 
  
• Billy Kilmer
• 
  
• Vince Ferragamo
• 
  
• Ron Jaworski
• 
  
• Ken Anderson
• 
  
• David Woodley
• 
  
• Joe Theismann
• 
  
• Tony Eason
• 
  
• Doug Williams
• 
  
• Boomer Esiason
• 
  
• Stan Humphries
• 
  
• Neil O’Donnell
• 
  
• Chris Chandler
• 
  
• Steve McNair
• 
  
• Trent Dilfer
• 
  
• Kerry Collins
• 
  
• Brad Johnson
• 
  
• Jake Delhomme
• 
  
• Donovan McNabb
• 
  
• Matt Hasselback
• 
  
• Res Grossman
• 
  
• Joe Flacco
• 
  
• Colin Kaepernick
• 
  
• Cam Newton
• 
  
• Nick Foles
• 
  
• Matt Ryan
• 
  
• Jared Goff
• 
  
• Jimmy Garoppolo

Not a Hall of Famer in the whole lot, IMO.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Rather than going back 14 years to Jamarcus Russell, let's go back just a couple of years to a more relevant example. Cleveland had the #1 pick after an 0-16 season. They were just as bad, if not worse, than this year's Jaguars. They took Baker Mayfield. Within 3 years, they are in the playoffs and a real solid team. In the 2019 draft, the Arizona Cardinals had #1 pick after a 3-13 season. They took Kyler Murray. They just missed the playoffs this year (8-8) in just 2 years of Murray being selected and poised to be a playoff contender over the next several seasons. It's also very possible that Joe Burrow will have Cincy in the playoff picture within the next 3 years. I wouldn't bet against it. Personally, I think Trevor Lawrence is better than Murray, Mayfield, and Burrow....but I'll admit that nothing is for certain. That includes the extra picks the Jags would get for trading away the #1 selection.

And to repeat, Jacksonville already has two first round picks and two second round picks this year. They can easily grab a promising left tackle, defensive tackle, and wide receiver with those picks....while selecting the consensus best QB in the draft. That's the way I would do it as Jacksonville's GM.

Glad Cougar

How many first round picks has Cleveland spent on QBs??? I can think of a couple guys they picked high that went nowhere but out of the league.

 

[BiggsCoug]

*********************************

To go along with your thoughts and the way I am leaning, how many of the following list of Super Bowl QB's do you all think will end up in the Hall of Fame? Not many, that's for sure, yet each of them was able to lead their team to the SB because the rest of the team was good enough to get there. I think this list is proof that a HOF QB is NOT required to be successful, to reach the Super Bowl. Remember, one of the best QB's of all time, Dan Fouts, never made it to the Super Bowl and there are probably a couple others that I don't recall right now. Dan Marino only made it to one also.

Here is the list:

• Len Dawson
• 
  
• Daryle Lamonica
• 
  
• Earl Morral
• 
  
• Joe Kapp
• 
  
• Craig Morton
• 
  
• Bob Griese
• 
  
• Billy Kilmer
• 
  
• Vince Ferragamo
• 
  
• Ron Jaworski
• 
  
• Ken Anderson
• 
  
• David Woodley
• 
  
• Joe Theismann
• 
  
• Tony Eason
• 
  
• Doug Williams
• 
  
• Boomer Esiason
• 
  
• Stan Humphries
• 
  
• Neil O’Donnell
• 
  
• Chris Chandler
• 
  
• Steve McNair
• 
  
• Trent Dilfer
• 
  
• Kerry Collins
• 
  
• Brad Johnson
• 
  
• Jake Delhomme
• 
  
• Donovan McNabb
• 
  
• Matt Hasselback
• 
  
• Res Grossman
• 
  
• Joe Flacco
• 
  
• Colin Kaepernick
• 
  
• Cam Newton
• 
  
• Nick Foles
• 
  
• Matt Ryan
• 
  
• Jared Goff
• 
  
• Jimmy Garoppolo

Not a Hall of Famer in the whole lot, IMO.

I dunno that you need a hall of famer at QB to win a super bowl. He does have to be a good player though.

Imo, there are a few position you have to spend the money on to have really good players. The rest can be solid players.... OL and QB on offense... DL and DB on defense. Everyone else can be just sound players... You don't need to spend the money on back and receivers.. there are tons of guys that can run and catch the ball... you don't need to spend the money on linebackers... there are tons of guys that can run and tackle... You do need to be able to move the offense and that means OL and QB... You do need to be able to stuff the run and defend the deep ball otherwise it could be a long day or quick day... also... if Im a NFL gm or coach there isn't going to be TE's or FB's in my scheme... they are wasted roster spots that don't see enough snaps on the field to justify the depth required and additional money spent... I would rather invest in more depth on the line of scrimmage players and defensive backs.... if I needed a 6th blocker I would use my 6th best OL... if I needed a FB I would use my DT....

 

[cr8zyncalif]

When I think of what you need to win NFL games, I think back to when Zorn and Kreig were the first two Seahawks QB's. Cal Poly Pomona and Milton College. No big money spent there. O line was OK but not great and definitely not deep; one or two injuries and they were done (and they were not that great in the first place). Largent was an outstanding possession receiver, but they seldom had any receivers that were a big threat to stretch the field to go along with him. Solid but not spectacular running backs. I always wondered what would have happened if they had successfully built an O line first.

 

[Coug90]

I dunno that you need a hall of famer at QB to win a super bowl. He does have to be a good player though.

Imo, there are a few position you have to spend the money on to have really good players. The rest can be solid players.... OL and QB on offense... DL and DB on defense. Everyone else can be just sound players... You don't need to spend the money on back and receivers.. there are tons of guys that can run and catch the ball... you don't need to spend the money on linebackers... there are tons of guys that can run and tackle... You do need to be able to move the offense and that means OL and QB... You do need to be able to stuff the run and defend the deep ball otherwise it could be a long day or quick day... also... if Im a NFL gm or coach there isn't going to be TE's or FB's in my scheme... they are wasted roster spots that don't see enough snaps on the field to justify the depth required and additional money spent... I would rather invest in more depth on the line of scrimmage players and defensive backs.... if I needed a 6th blocker I would use my 6th best OL... if I needed a FB I would use my DT....

A good running game and top level defense can still win you a SB if you have a mid-tier QB who’s efficient and doesn’t make mistakes. That’s why I think in the right circumstance Minshew could win a SB. He’s not gonna throw for 5K yards or 50 TDs, but he moves the chains and doesn’t turn the ball over...and he’s a good leader who makes his teammates better.

 

[Glad Cougar]

How many first round picks has Cleveland spent on QBs??? I can think of a couple guys they picked high that went nowhere but out of the league.

There have been a few over the years, but only Mayfield and Tim Couch were a #1 pick in the draft: (Couch was drafted in 1999, and yes, he wasn't a great QB but did start for 5 seasons and led them to their previously most recent playoff game in 2002 before injuries ended his career)

Brady Quinn- 22nd pick
Brandon Weedon- 22nd pick
Johnny Manziel- 22nd pick

Looks like the Browns finally did well in drafting a QB by using the #1 pick in the draft on the best one available.

I think the Jags can get an outstanding OL with their other 1st round pick, and a very good DL/DB with their 2 second round picks. They have multiple additional picks later in the draft as well. Grabbing a potential franchise QB like Lawrence could make it an outstanding haul without the need for additional picks. Jags also have more cap space than any other team in the NFL....so can spend some $$$ on free agents to fill needs.

Glad Cougar

 

[Stretch 74]

When I think of what you need to win NFL games, I think back to when Zorn and Kreig were the first two Seahawks QB's. Cal Poly Pomona and Milton College. No big money spent there. O line was OK but not great and definitely not deep; one or two injuries and they were done (and they were not that great in the first place). Largent was an outstanding possession receiver, but they seldom had any receivers that were a big threat to stretch the field to go along with him. Solid but not spectacular running backs. I always wondered what would have happened if they had successfully built an O line first.

*****************************

Didn't the Hawks trade away the opportunity to draft Tony Dorsett and end up drafting can't miss OL Steve Niehaus? And he did miss. No sure things in the draft, another reason I think spreading your risk among several picks is a stronger strategery than going all in on a QB.

 

[CougSinceBirth]

True for Seattle. But as a huge KC Chiefs fan since the mid 1960s, I can honestly say the Chiefs haven't had an elite defense for quite some time. They've been more than adequate as a complement to that incredible offense, but not elite. Wish they were.

Glad Cougar

Totally fair. I think if you don't have an elite D, you have some elite guys on D and felt like KC had one or two minimum, including former Seahawk Frank Clark (and Mathieu by name).

In KC's case, Mahomes made their offense elite, but on his rookie scale.

In Seattle's case, Russ made the difference but Beast Mode was the engine that drove the offense. But that D was elite.

I think in some form, a rookie QB and an elite side of the ball and adequate at worst on the other is usually the most possible formula.

 

[Coug90]

There have been a few over the years, but only Mayfield and Tim Couch were a #1 pick in the draft: (Couch was drafted in 1999, and yes, he wasn't a great QB but did start for 5 seasons and led them to their previously most recent playoff game in 2002 before injuries ended his career)

Brady Quinn- 22nd pick
Brandon Weedon- 22nd pick
Johnny Manziel- 22nd pick

Looks like the Browns finally did well in drafting a QB by using the #1 pick in the draft on the best one available.

I think the Jags can get an outstanding OL with their other 1st round pick, and a very good DL/DB with their 2 second round picks. They have multiple additional picks later in the draft as well. Grabbing a potential franchise QB like Lawrence could make it an outstanding haul without the need for additional picks. Jags also have more cap space than any other team in the NFL....so can spend some $$$ on free agents to fill needs.

Glad Cougar

Nailed it. This is how the Browns went from 0-16 to playoffs in a couple of years. And I like Mayfield but I think Lawrence has a way higher upside than Mayfield. The Jags are in a situation that even they shouldn’t be able to screw up. This is what’s great about the NFL is that teams can and do rebuild quickly through the draft and the right free agent signings. I do hope it works out where minshew gets a chance somewhere else because he’s too good to be riding pine.

 

[BiggsCoug]

There have been a few over the years, but only Mayfield and Tim Couch were a #1 pick in the draft: (Couch was drafted in 1999, and yes, he wasn't a great QB but did start for 5 seasons and led them to their previously most recent playoff game in 2002 before injuries ended his career)

Brady Quinn- 22nd pick
Brandon Weedon- 22nd pick
Johnny Manziel- 22nd pick

Looks like the Browns finally did well in drafting a QB by using the #1 pick in the draft on the best one available.

I think the Jags can get an outstanding OL with their other 1st round pick, and a very good DL/DB with their 2 second round picks. They have multiple additional picks later in the draft as well. Grabbing a potential franchise QB like Lawrence could make it an outstanding haul without the need for additional picks. Jags also have more cap space than any other team in the NFL....so can spend some $$$ on free agents to fill needs.

Glad Cougar

They used 5 first round picks on 1 position in however many years and only got 1 guy that could play well enough to get them to the playoffs. That's awful.

1 OL doesn't help you. It might make things a little better but ultimately the Jags will be picking top 10 again in a year. They need at least 2 studs on the OL and 3 other solid players.

It isn't gonna get done in a year. It may take 3-5 years to pull it all together.

 

[couginphx]

I wasnt naysaying 1st round QB picks. I was, am Naysaying TOP of the 1st round(about picks 1,2,3 of the 1st round of draft)

When a team picks a QB, as a Number 1 pick of the 1st round:

1. It cost them about 17 million to 43 Million per year at most, to that per multi year contract at minimum.

That takes up a HELL of a lot of Cap Space, making it so that there usually isnt enough either cap space or money to get what need to win, in addition to the #1 pick Jamarcus Russel. And that's assuming the QB is a Tom Brady, Rodgers, etc.

2. For whatever reason, whether its lack of talent evaluation, hype, not having supporting cast, etc, USUALLY about 67% to 73% of the time the #1 pick, Jamarcus Russel usually doesnt work out. And if they do work out, its usually with, at, on a 2nd, 3rd team, and not with the team that drafted them.

About 25% of the time the Number 1 pick of 1st round, is great. About 25% they are average. About 25% they are below average. About 25% they are as bad as Jamarcus Russel.

But again even if they are Rodgers, etc, they dont get the supporting cast around them to help them succeed.

Its a huge risk, gamble, risking 17 to 100 million in either per year or per multi year contract.

Thats too much money to put up as a gamble to maybe might get a Rodgers.

And Spending a #1 pick on a QB is to much to put up on a chance the QB might be a Rodgers.

Its better to Either:

1. Use the #1 pick on a LT, DL, because they are almost as important or just as important as a QB.

2. A LT or DL work out more often then a QB picked at #1.

3. If you trade down and get 2 1st rounders, and 2 2nd rounders, etc, instead of the Number 1 pick of 1st round, you can get your QB, 13th pick to last pick of 1st round, and get a LT, DL, etc, to help your QB win.

The only problem with that approach, is that you have to be as good as the Patriots, Seahawks at EVALUATING, and drafting picking

Yes some don't make it, its not exact science, but the teams who are winning generally speaking have highly drafted QBs.

The draft pick number of every starting QB in the NFL playoffs this year:
1
1
1
2
4
7
8
10
11
24
32
32
75
199

You can worry about cap space, I'll win football games.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Yes some don't make it, its not exact science, but the teams who are winning generally speaking have highly drafted QBs.

The draft pick number of every starting QB in the NFL playoffs this year:
1
1
1
2
4
7
8
10
11
24
32
32
75
199

You can worry about cap space, I'll win football games.

I'd like to see the draft number of the rest of the QB's in the league.

 

[mikalalas]

If a team is more concerned about their top pick being a bust rather than believing they will be great, they might as well skip the draft. If Trevor Lawrence ends up being another Jamarcus Russell, I will be quick to post that I was wrong and you were right. If I was forced to make a sizable bet on whether Lawrence will turn out to be another Andrew Luck (who he is often compared to) or a Russell, I know where my money is going. Chances are Jacksonville does too.

It's a good debate and I can understand the benefit of trading down. I just don't think the Jags should give up a chance to get the franchise QB that most teams need to have to become a champion. Hoping that Minshew or some other QB that would be available later in the draft can become that franchise QB seems a lot riskier to me. The other positions can be addressed with the available extra picks the Jags already have....and they are more likely to find real good linemen, WRs, defensive backs, RBs, etc....in rounds 2-4 than finding a top QB. Just my opinion.

Glad Cougar

I never said, implied, suggested that a team should worry about the #1 pick of 1st round being a Bust.

If they pick a LT, DL, with the #1 pick of 1st round, they Should Not Worry about a LT, DL being a Bust, because LT's, DL's usually are not bust when taken as the #1 pick.

But QB's have about a 43% chance to be a BUST when they are taken as the #1 pick of 1st round. There is a higher chance of BUSTING with a QB at #1 pick, then with a LT, DL, and thats a FACT.

When you have the #1 pick, and can pick of Lawrence QB, that Lawrence QB, #1 pick is SO DESIRED, EXTREMELY VALUABLE, that you can or should be able to get a #7 pick to #10 pick, to #13 pick, with a #17 to #20 to #23 pick. So 2, 1st rounders, and 1,2 2nd rounders.

And that has happened in past.

In fact KC gave up a SHET ton for #10, let alone a #1 pick.

Also a #7 pick, #10 pick, #13 pick, is not that much worse, then a #1 pick. In fact its happened in many drafts that there are 2 players that SHOULD be picked with #1 pick, and 1 of them gets picked #1, and the other slips to #5 to #7 to #10 to #13.

So what does that mean?

That means that can trade that #1 pick to a team DESPERATE for Lawrence, get a #9 pick, and a #20 pick, and a extra 2nd Rounder.

You now have 4 1st round picks, and 3,4 2nd round picks.

You take a QB either as good, or almost as good at #8.

And you take a LT, DL, etc, at the 6, 7 other draft picks within 1st 2 rounds.

 

[Glad Cougar]

They used 5 first round picks on 1 position in however many years and only got 1 guy that could play well enough to get them to the playoffs. That's awful.

1 OL doesn't help you. It might make things a little better but ultimately the Jags will be picking top 10 again in a year. They need at least 2 studs on the OL and 3 other solid players.

It isn't gonna get done in a year. It may take 3-5 years to pull it all together.

Not exactly. They used two #1 overall picks on a QB and both have taken them to the playoffs (Couch & Mayfield). The other guys were taken in the first round but with the 22nd pick, not the first.

I agree with you that a turnaround isn't likely in a year. But with a franchise QB, the additional draft picks they have already accrued spent wisely, and good, targeted FA signings while their salary cap is so low....the Jags will be competing for a playoff spot in 2-3 years, just like Cleveland and Arizona have done with Mayfield & Murray. It would help if they hire a really good coach!

Glad Cougar

 

[BiggsCoug]

Not exactly. They used two #1 overall picks on a QB and both have taken them to the playoffs (Couch & Mayfield). The other guys were taken in the first round but with the 22nd pick, not the first.

I agree with you that a turnaround isn't likely in a year. But with a franchise QB, the additional draft picks they have already accrued spent wisely, and good, targeted FA signings while their salary cap is so low....the Jags will be competing for a playoff spot in 2-3 years, just like Cleveland and Arizona have done with Mayfield & Murray. It would help if they hire a really good coach!

Glad Cougar

And in year 4 & 5 they better win in or else they will lose all their FAs to pay their franchise qb.

It’s a tight rope walking act for sure.

One of the things I think college football misses completely is what it really is ~ a tv show.

The most watched tv shows have drama, suspense, comedy, etc... They give you a reason to tune in every week, follow their storylines.... What the NFL does that helps the drama and suspense is spread the talent. Worst teams get first pick at new talent, all teams have a cap, everyone plays 8 home and 8 away games... They use those things to create a scenario where it usually comes down to the final drive, final 2 mins or last second field goal to win it. Viewers tune in for the entire game... they prop up fantasy football to drive interest in every game, not just “your” team... More ads sold, more viewers tune in, more $ to be had by all...

College football is like watching the final four NFL teams pick 1-50 in the draft. The best teams get the best talent every year and it essentially neutralizes whatever cap impact the 85 scholarships limit has. Teams hold their thumb on the scale when scheduling to protect their records or even play 8 home games on a 12 game schedule. You get the best talent every year, you tilt the schedule to win more games, you never travel anywhere further than 3 hours away and then you pound your chest about how hard everyone works and what great kids you have (Dabo).... Really???

If the NCAA were smart they’d make every team play everyone in their league. Have better weekly match ups that drive viewers, have leas cross country travel, have more drama and suspense every week and essentially have a pennant race down the stretch for the playoffs.

More $$$ for everyone involved. Instead it’s more money for a few teams involved.