Let the draft speculation begin….

[95coug]

Draft order is set for the top 6:

tennessee
Cleveland
NY giants
New england
Jacksonville
LV raiders

Only 2 of these are likely set at QB for now - New England with Drake Maye and Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence.

Tennessee can’t be sold on Will Levis, so might be ready to move on.

Cleveland has a ton of cash tied up in Deshaun Watson, but he’s a massive bust. Best case for them is that his most recent injury is career ending

The Giants and the Raiders have well documented and clear QB issues.

Every one of them has multiple issues, and drafting a QB early won’t turn them into winners. All 6 teams support my longtime feeling that anyone who earns a top 5 pick should never use it - they should trade it for more picks.

So…Cam and Shedeur Sanders are likely to end up off the board in the top 3. Only question really is whether anyone moves up to grab them. Also possible that one of the top 3 signs a FA QB (Cousins?) as a stopgap, because this isn’t a great QB year. Honestly, I’m not sold on Cam Or Sanders as a top QB pick, and Cam in particular will underperform on any team picking this early.

Jalen Milroe is in the mix now too, and there are a couple of others who could declare in the next week or two.

Seahawks are at #18, so they’re not likely to be in the QB sweepstakes unless they make an aggressive move. I’ve also read that they’re looking at $35M for Geno in 2025, which is way too much. I’d be more in favor of them trying to pick up a veteran on the cheap (again, cousins?) for a year, and use their draft picks to shore up the OL, and maybe find an RB that can stay healthy.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

I'm going to put it down right now. Cam Ward is doomed to be a bust. Whether he is good or not won't matter. He's going to be on a crap team and is going to get pummeled and we all know what Bad Cam looks like when he is under pressure.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Draft order is set for the top 6:

tennessee
Cleveland
NY giants
New england
Jacksonville
LV raiders

Only 2 of these are likely set at QB for now - New England with Drake Maye and Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence.

Tennessee can’t be sold on Will Levis, so might be ready to move on.

Cleveland has a ton of cash tied up in Deshaun Watson, but he’s a massive bust. Best case for them is that his most recent injury is career ending

The Giants and the Raiders have well documented and clear QB issues.

Every one of them has multiple issues, and drafting a QB early won’t turn them into winners. All 6 teams support my longtime feeling that anyone who earns a top 5 pick should never use it - they should trade it for more picks.

So…Cam and Shedeur Sanders are likely to end up off the board in the top 3. Only question really is whether anyone moves up to grab them. Also possible that one of the top 3 signs a FA QB (Cousins?) as a stopgap, because this isn’t a great QB year. Honestly, I’m not sold on Cam Or Sanders as a top QB pick, and Cam in particular will underperform on any team picking this early.

Jalen Milroe is in the mix now too, and there are a couple of others who could declare in the next week or two.

Seahawks are at #18, so they’re not likely to be in the QB sweepstakes unless they make an aggressive move. I’ve also read that they’re looking at $35M for Geno in 2025, which is way too much. I’d be more in favor of them trying to pick up a veteran on the cheap (again, cousins?) for a year, and use their draft picks to shore up the OL, and maybe find an RB that can stay healthy.

I turned on the tv and caught Miami…. Cam ran around, fumbled, defense recovered. Same shit, diff team. Good luck to whoever who drafts him.

How can you fairly evaluate Sanders? He has done nothing but run for his life for 2 years. Can he read a defense??? What film are you evaluating and really seeing what the kid can do?

Draft a DT lol

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

I'm going to put it down right now. Cam Ward is doomed to be a bust. Whether he is good or not won't matter. He's going to be on a crap team and is going to get pummeled and we all know what Bad Cam looks like when he is under pressure.

Yes, but he's going to be very, very wealthy.

 

[Coug90]

I'm going to put it down right now. Cam Ward is doomed to be a bust. Whether he is good or not won't matter. He's going to be on a crap team and is going to get pummeled and we all know what Bad Cam looks like when he is under pressure.

Yup. Please be there at #6…from a broncos fan.

 

[Coug1990]

Draft order is set for the top 6:

tennessee
Cleveland
NY giants
New england
Jacksonville
LV raiders

Only 2 of these are likely set at QB for now - New England with Drake Maye and Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence.

Tennessee can’t be sold on Will Levis, so might be ready to move on.

Cleveland has a ton of cash tied up in Deshaun Watson, but he’s a massive bust. Best case for them is that his most recent injury is career ending

The Giants and the Raiders have well documented and clear QB issues.

Every one of them has multiple issues, and drafting a QB early won’t turn them into winners. All 6 teams support my longtime feeling that anyone who earns a top 5 pick should never use it - they should trade it for more picks.

So…Cam and Shedeur Sanders are likely to end up off the board in the top 3. Only question really is whether anyone moves up to grab them. Also possible that one of the top 3 signs a FA QB (Cousins?) as a stopgap, because this isn’t a great QB year. Honestly, I’m not sold on Cam Or Sanders as a top QB pick, and Cam in particular will underperform on any team picking this early.

Jalen Milroe is in the mix now too, and there are a couple of others who could declare in the next week or two.

Seahawks are at #18, so they’re not likely to be in the QB sweepstakes unless they make an aggressive move. I’ve also read that they’re looking at $35M for Geno in 2025, which is way too much. I’d be more in favor of them trying to pick up a veteran on the cheap (again, cousins?) for a year, and use their draft picks to shore up the OL, and maybe find an RB that can stay healthy.

Geno has a cap hit of $44.5 million. It was $38.5 million before today's game, but he reached $6 million more in incentives today. Personally, I would move on from him. I think he is a good QB, but not worth that in contract. He is 35 next season, so he is not the long term answer. With him, the Seahawks are just good enough to be stuck in the middle. The middle is a bad place to be. Not good enough to win championships, but too good to get high drafts picks that can actually help the team.

Geno Smith | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Geno Smith contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

 

[95coug]

Yup. Please be there at #6…from a broncos fan.

If the Raiders had any sense at all, they’d trade down and try to get OL and WR help (or just about anything on D).

So of course, in true Raiders fashion, most of the speculation I’ve read has them trying to trade up for a QB.

 

[Coug90]

Geno has a cap hit of $44.5 million. It was $38.5 million before today's game, but he reached $6 million more in incentives today. Personally, I would move on from him. I think he is a good QB, but not worth that in contract. He is 35 next season, so he is not the long term answer. With him, the Seahawks are just good enough to be stuck in the middle. The middle is a bad place to be. Not good enough to win championships, but too good to get high drafts picks that can actually help the team.

Geno Smith | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Geno Smith contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

I actually think Geno is a pretty good comp for Cam Ward. I don’t think cams going to be a bust per se, I just think he will struggle and be a very average QB who’ll likely play his way into being a career backup. He could be Russell Wilson if he got in the right situation with a top 5 running game and defense but he won’t going to a team at the top of the draft board. So, old habits come back, lots of turnovers, and getting benched for some QB not nearly as talented but who doesnt turn it over as much.

 

[95coug]

Geno has a cap hit of $44.5 million. It was $38.5 million before today's game, but he reached $6 million more in incentives today. Personally, I would move on from him. I think he is a good QB, but not worth that in contract. He is 35 next season, so he is not the long term answer. With him, the Seahawks are just good enough to be stuck in the middle. The middle is a bad place to be. Not good enough to win championships, but too good to get high drafts picks that can actually help the team.

Geno Smith | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Geno Smith contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

Looking at the numbers, I think they almost have to move on. And they have to do it by March 16. He gets a $16M roster bonus then, and the financial benefits start to diminish. If they cut or trade before then, it looks like they save about $30M against the cap.

They've also got the option to rework his contract and give him another year, but it's questionable how much room that buys them, or whether Geno would be that open to it.

Myself, I think I'd be making some quiet phone calls to some of those top 6 teams - especially Tennessee and Las Vegas. Cleveland probably isn't an option because with the money they've got into Watson, they can't afford more than a bargain contract. The Raiders might be interesting, because they definitely need a QB, and aren't likely to get a good one in the draft without giving up their future. Smith would buy them a little time. If the Seahawks could get a pick or two in return...both sides might benefit. The Raiders don't have many names on their roster that would be worth trying to pry loose - maybe Jakobi Meyers, certainly Maxx Crosby (but that's not gonna happen). Minshew could even be an "oh by the way" addition to a trade of picks, and at least creates an option in the Seahawks camp next fall.

The Jets, Cowboys, Dolphins, and Colts could be in the QB market too, but the Jets are probably the only ones looking for a starter, and them & Geno probably aren't too interested in each other.

If I'm Seattle, I try pretty hard to move Geno ahead of March 16. I keep a pretty close eye on free agency to see if I can land a reasonable player for the short term. Free agent signing starts March 12, so I have 3 days to sign someone and then cut Smith if I can't trade him. If I can land, say, Justin Fields, I may not end up with a QB who's any better, but he's 8 years younger and $20M cheaper.

 

[Coug90]

Looking at the numbers, I think they almost have to move on. And they have to do it by March 16. He gets a $16M roster bonus then, and the financial benefits start to diminish. If they cut or trade before then, it looks like they save about $30M against the cap.

They've also got the option to rework his contract and give him another year, but it's questionable how much room that buys them, or whether Geno would be that open to it.

Myself, I think I'd be making some quiet phone calls to some of those top 6 teams - especially Tennessee and Las Vegas. Cleveland probably isn't an option because with the money they've got into Watson, they can't afford more than a bargain contract. The Raiders might be interesting, because they definitely need a QB, and aren't likely to get a good one in the draft without giving up their future. Smith would buy them a little time. If the Seahawks could get a pick or two in return...both sides might benefit. The Raiders don't have many names on their roster that would be worth trying to pry loose - maybe Jakobi Meyers, certainly Maxx Crosby (but that's not gonna happen). Minshew could even be an "oh by the way" addition to a trade of picks, and at least creates an option in the Seahawks camp next fall.

The Jets, Cowboys, Dolphins, and Colts could be in the QB market too, but the Jets are probably the only ones looking for a starter, and them & Geno probably aren't too interested in each other.

If I'm Seattle, I try pretty hard to move Geno ahead of March 16. I keep a pretty close eye on free agency to see if I can land a reasonable player for the short term. Free agent signing starts March 12, so I have 3 days to sign someone and then cut Smith if I can't trade him. If I can land, say, Justin Fields, I may not end up with a QB who's any better, but he's 8 years younger and $20M cheaper.

Russ might be available! And he only costs $1.2M!

 

[UberCougars]

JJ McCarthy speculation sounds intriguing to me.

Theory goes: Minnesota found their LT QB in Darnold and has indicated a willingness to pay him.

McCarthy is said to be available for a 2nd + 4th.

 

[dgibbons]

Draft order is set for the top 6:

tennessee
Cleveland
NY giants
New england
Jacksonville
LV raiders

Only 2 of these are likely set at QB for now - New England with Drake Maye and Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence.

Tennessee can’t be sold on Will Levis, so might be ready to move on.

Cleveland has a ton of cash tied up in Deshaun Watson, but he’s a massive bust. Best case for them is that his most recent injury is career ending

The Giants and the Raiders have well documented and clear QB issues.

Every one of them has multiple issues, and drafting a QB early won’t turn them into winners. All 6 teams support my longtime feeling that anyone who earns a top 5 pick should never use it - they should trade it for more picks.

So…Cam and Shedeur Sanders are likely to end up off the board in the top 3. Only question really is whether anyone moves up to grab them. Also possible that one of the top 3 signs a FA QB (Cousins?) as a stopgap, because this isn’t a great QB year. Honestly, I’m not sold on Cam Or Sanders as a top QB pick, and Cam in particular will underperform on any team picking this early.

Jalen Milroe is in the mix now too, and there are a couple of others who could declare in the next week or two.

Seahawks are at #18, so they’re not likely to be in the QB sweepstakes unless they make an aggressive move. I’ve also read that they’re looking at $35M for Geno in 2025, which is way too much. I’d be more in favor of them trying to pick up a veteran on the cheap (again, cousins?) for a year, and use their draft picks to shore up the OL, and maybe find an RB that can stay healthy.

On Ward, I think it's fair to point out that the guy has raised his level of play at each of his stops. He went from zero star nobody recruit to QB at Incarnate Word, to QB at WSU, to QB at Miami and a Heisman finalist.

Someone (or someones) always draft a QB too early.

 

[dgibbons]

I turned on the tv and caught Miami…. Cam ran around, fumbled, defense recovered. Same shit, diff team. Good luck to whoever who drafts him.

How can you fairly evaluate Sanders? He has done nothing but run for his life for 2 years. Can he read a defense??? What film are you evaluating and really seeing what the kid can do?

Draft a DT lol

Remember when you laughed about him being in a NFL camp. I do.

 

[95coug]

JJ McCarthy speculation sounds intriguing to me.

Theory goes: Minnesota found their LT QB in Darnold and has indicated a willingness to pay him.

McCarthy is said to be available for a 2nd + 4th.

I’ve seen some of that talk, but not sure how much there is to it. Darnold looked solid this year, minus a few mediocre performances, but has been mediocre at best for the rest of his career. Difference is probably that he’s currently on the best team he’s had. the Vikings are basically the same group that was flying with Kirk Cousins in 2023, and also managed wins with Nick Mullins and Josh Dobbs at QB. They remain a roster that will be pretty forgiving for a rookie QB with a pretty small price tag.

It all comes down to who the Vikings are more sold on, but either way they may affect how the draft goes. If I was going to dump McCarthy after spending #10 on him, I want something better than a 2 & 4… and it better be an early 2. He’s not so expensive that I feel like I have to get rid of him if I don’t get my price.

 

[UberCougars]

To be fair, I heard a 2 & 4 or a 2,4 & 5 so, a bit of a range in the speculation.

 

[95coug]

To be fair, I heard a 2 & 4 or a 2,4 & 5 so, a bit of a range in the speculation.

If I’m trading the guy who was #10 last season, especially in a year that’s lean on QBs, I’m pretty sure I need a 2 & 3. Unless you’re also giving me a player I need.

But, I probably wouldn’t trade him anyway. I’m not a believer in Darnold yet.

 

[Coug90]

If I’m trading the guy who was #10 last season, especially in a year that’s lean on QBs, I’m pretty sure I need a 2 & 3. Unless you’re also giving me a player I need.

But, I probably wouldn’t trade him anyway. I’m not a believer in Darnold yet.

I’m more of a believer in Darnold than McCarthy. McCarthy hasn’t done anything in the NFL and there’s no guarantee he will. I don’t think there’s any hurry to trade McCarthy and get picks either. A backup QB you like is a valuable commodity. The pick they spent on him is largely a sunk cost if you’re doing this right, so I’d expect he stays in Minnesota for now. And they could certainly end up with a Steve Young, Aaron Rogers scenario where he sits for a few years and is then a top 10 QB.

 

[UberCougars]

Who spends money on a backup QB in the NFL? McCarthy represents 2-3 starters in needed spots in the upcoming draft. That’s a lot of $$$ riding the bench.

Darnold will cost $50m+. John Schneider isn’t paying that.

 

[Coug90]

Who spends money on a backup QB in the NFL? McCarthy represents 2-3 starters in needed spots in the upcoming draft. That’s a lot of $$$ riding the bench.

Darnold will cost $50m+. John Schneider isn’t paying that.

Nobody does but McCarthy is on a rookie deal so he’s not costing you that much for a QB. And darnold ain’t getting $50 for one good year, he probably gets a deal a little richer than Geno’s…$30-35. So you can have both guys and be in line with NFL QB rooms. I bet they keep him.

 

[UberCougars]

Time will tell but, if Darnold buckles now, you’re right. If he goes to the SB? He’s getting a big deal, 50m +

IF that happens, while McC is on a rookie deal, he is just insurance on the roster( Insurance that might not pay out on a claim)

The argument seems to be, should Minnesota keep the insurance or instead, put that asset to work more effectively in different roster needs

 

[Coug90]

Time will tell but, if Darnold buckles now, you’re right. If he goes to the SB? He’s getting a big deal, 50m +

IF that happens, while McC is on a rookie deal, he is just insurance on the roster( Insurance that might not pay out on a claim)

The argument seems to be, should Minnesota keep the insurance or instead, put that asset to work more effectively in different roster needs

True, I guess I don’t see Minn going to the SB after the lions just dismantled them.

 

[95coug]

I’m more of a believer in Darnold than McCarthy. McCarthy hasn’t done anything in the NFL and there’s no guarantee he will. I don’t think there’s any hurry to trade McCarthy and get picks either. A backup QB you like is a valuable commodity. The pick they spent on him is largely a sunk cost if you’re doing this right, so I’d expect he stays in Minnesota for now. And they could certainly end up with a Steve Young, Aaron Rogers scenario where he sits for a few years and is then a top 10 QB.

Who spends money on a backup QB in the NFL? McCarthy represents 2-3 starters in needed spots in the upcoming draft. That’s a lot of $$$ riding the bench.

Darnold will cost $50m+. John Schneider isn’t paying that.

I agree with both of you. I'm not sold on Darnold based on his total career, but I can't be sure on McCarthy either. I thought taking him at #10 was extremely optimistic, but if that's the value they placed on him, I don't see that he's done anything to diminish it either.

McCarthy gets less than $1M in salary next season, with a cap hit of $5M. They won't find a veteran backup for that money, so there shouldn't be financial pressure to dump him. I'd likely keep him - either as the backup or as a starter - unless someone offers me a pick in the top half of round 1 (which isn't likely to happen). Even then, I'm not sure I'd move him without a little more incentive, and without a pretty clear idea who my QB is going to be in 2025.

Darnold could be Nick Foles 2.0. Foles was making $5.5M as the backup in Philly, and after his Super Bowl run he got the Jags to give him $22M/year for 4 years. $50M guaranteed. He lasted 1 year. (Giant grain of salt - it was the Jags)

Darnold is making $10M on a 1 year deal with the Vikings (2.5M salary, the rest in signing bonus. 8.75M guaranteed). He's the top of the list of QBs expected to be available. It's possible that some teams could turn his pursuit into a bidding war and push him into the ranks of the highest paid QBs.

Minnesota could also exercise the nuclear option and franchise him, but that means giving him $40M guaranteed on a 1-year deal. They actually have quite a bit of cap room, so could do this and also keep McCarthy for 2025. If Darnold doesn't look good, don't re-sign him for 2026. If he doesn't look good early, trade him ahead of the deadline.

There are a lot of pieces that could still move around and affect the market. If Darnold wins a super bowl, his value goes way up. If Matthew Stafford retires, there's another team with money in the market. Regardless, it's a good year to be a free agent QB, the group of college QBs coming out is as shallow as I can remember seeing in a long time.

 

[Coug90]

I agree with both of you. I'm not sold on Darnold based on his total career, but I can't be sure on McCarthy either. I thought taking him at #10 was extremely optimistic, but if that's the value they placed on him, I don't see that he's done anything to diminish it either.

McCarthy gets less than $1M in salary next season, with a cap hit of $5M. They won't find a veteran backup for that money, so there shouldn't be financial pressure to dump him. I'd likely keep him - either as the backup or as a starter - unless someone offers me a pick in the top half of round 1 (which isn't likely to happen). Even then, I'm not sure I'd move him without a little more incentive, and without a pretty clear idea who my QB is going to be in 2025.

Darnold could be Nick Foles 2.0. Foles was making $5.5M as the backup in Philly, and after his Super Bowl run he got the Jags to give him $22M/year for 4 years. $50M guaranteed. He lasted 1 year. (Giant grain of salt - it was the Jags)

Darnold is making $10M on a 1 year deal with the Vikings (2.5M salary, the rest in signing bonus. 8.75M guaranteed). He's the top of the list of QBs expected to be available. It's possible that some teams could turn his pursuit into a bidding war and push him into the ranks of the highest paid QBs.

Minnesota could also exercise the nuclear option and franchise him, but that means giving him $40M guaranteed on a 1-year deal. They actually have quite a bit of cap room, so could do this and also keep McCarthy for 2025. If Darnold doesn't look good, don't re-sign him for 2026. If he doesn't look good early, trade him ahead of the deadline.

There are a lot of pieces that could still move around and affect the market. If Darnold wins a super bowl, his value goes way up. If Matthew Stafford retires, there's another team with money in the market. Regardless, it's a good year to be a free agent QB, the group of college QBs coming out is as shallow as I can remember seeing in a long time.

The college QBs look like hot garbage this year. Huge red flags with even the top QBs in shedeur and Cam. In a situation that isn’t ideal they could both be busts. So yeah probably the right time for Darnold to pop.

 

[95coug]

The college QBs look like hot garbage this year. Huge red flags with even the top QBs in shedeur and Cam. In a situation that isn’t ideal they could both be busts. So yeah probably the right time for Darnold to pop.

Both of them have some significant warts. In a typical QB year I’m not sure either of them is a first rounder, but the class is so bad that they look pretty good.

Multiple of us have mentioned before how drastically Cam falls apart when he doesn’t have a good team around him. That’s likely to happen if he goes to any team in the top 10, practically guaranteed in the top 5.

If I’m GM at Tennessee, I’m looking really hard at free agency or a trade.