Minshew and the draft

[Loyal Coug]

I hope Gardner has a helluva run up to, and participation in, the Senior Bowl. In articles I have read (including the one linked below), he is never mentioned among the top QB prospects. And I don't get it. All the stats, all the highlights, awards, etc. and he is completely off the radar - of the stupid sportswriters anyway.

Gardner doesn't have a John Elway arm, but I have seen a lot of NFL-caliber passes from him (the Utah game winner for example). He's big enough at 6'2", mobile enough, certainly tough and smart enough and a helluva leader. So what is his Achilles heel that I don't know about?

With Luke, we knew he was fragile, his arm was so-so, and he was not mobile. Fair enough. But Minshew? I see him as the perfect understudy to Drew Brees.

And this article - who in the hell is Daniel Jones of Duke? "After passing for 2,674 yards and 22 touchdowns with nine interceptions for the Blue Devils in 2018, Jones declared his intent to pursue his dream of playing in the NFL."

Or Drew Lock of Missouri? "Since then, an up-and-down 2018 season may have dinged Lock's stock a tad. His completion percentage (60.4) over the last two years wasn't a jaw-dropper,"

Or Ryan Finley of NC State? "He completed over 67 percent of his passes at North Carolina State in 2018 and flirted with 4,000 passing yards."

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...om&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral

 

[Observer11]

Ryan Finley is the real deal. Transferred from Boise State after Rypien took his job due to an injury. He got Wally Pipped.

 

[COUGinNCW]

Ryan Finley is the real deal. Transferred from Boise State after Rypien took his job due to an injury. He got Wally Pipped.

Rypien will get a look as well. Probably an UDFA.

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

I hope Gardner has a helluva run up to, and participation in, the Senior Bowl. In articles I have read (including the one linked below), he is never mentioned among the top QB prospects. And I don't get it. All the stats, all the highlights, awards, etc. and he is completely off the radar - of the stupid sportswriters anyway.

Gardner doesn't have a John Elway arm, but I have seen a lot of NFL-caliber passes from him (the Utah game winner for example). He's big enough at 6'2", mobile enough, certainly tough and smart enough and a helluva leader. So what is his Achilles heel that I don't know about?

With Luke, we knew he was fragile, his arm was so-so, and he was not mobile. Fair enough. But Minshew? I see him as the perfect understudy to Drew Brees.

And this article - who in the hell is Daniel Jones of Duke? "After passing for 2,674 yards and 22 touchdowns with nine interceptions for the Blue Devils in 2018, Jones declared his intent to pursue his dream of playing in the NFL."

Or Drew Lock of Missouri? "Since then, an up-and-down 2018 season may have dinged Lock's stock a tad. His completion percentage (60.4) over the last two years wasn't a jaw-dropper,"

Or Ryan Finley of NC State? "He completed over 67 percent of his passes at North Carolina State in 2018 and flirted with 4,000 passing yards."

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...om&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral

I don't think the pass in the Utah game is an example of having an NFL arm...even if that was a great pass, catch, and run.

 

[95coug]

I’ve seen him rated anywhere from #9-16 among this year’s QB prospects. None of the ratings are real clear on what their knocks on him are, other than really only having one season on him. Consensus seems to be he’s a backup player, late round pick or a high demand UDFA. (Oh, and it’s nice to see that all of the ratings have him down as a better prospect that jake Browning.)

I think it’d be great to see him catch on as a backup, play for a couple years under a coaching guru while pulling down high 6/low 7 figures per year, then turn to coaching.

 

[Loyal Coug]

I’ve seen him rated anywhere from #9-16 among this year’s QB prospects. None of the ratings are real clear on what their knocks on him are, other than really only having one season on him. Consensus seems to be he’s a backup player, late round pick or a high demand UDFA. (Oh, and it’s nice to see that all of the ratings have him down as a better prospect that jake Browning.)

I think it’d be great to see him catch on as a backup, play for a couple years under a coaching guru while pulling down high 6/low 7 figures per year, then turn to coaching.

Or play for 15 years in the NFL. Funny, since I mentioned Drew Brees I looked up the 2001 draft. 11 QB's taken total. Vick went #1, Brees #32. Marques Tui (now a coach) #59, Josh Heupel (coach) #177. And let's not forget name favorites AJ Feeley at #155 or Josh Booty at #172.

 

[95coug]

Or play for 15 years in the NFL. Funny, since I mentioned Drew Brees I looked up the 2001 draft. 11 QB's taken total. Vick went #1, Brees #32. Marques Tui (now a coach) #59, Josh Heupel (coach) #177. And let's not forget name favorites AJ Feeley at #155 or Josh Booty at #172.

I could see Minshew backing up Brees...although I don’t expect he’s got more than about 3 seasons left.

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

The QB position is really hard to project. I wouldn't underestimate him...even if his arm strength isn't terrific.

He's smart, tough, and stays on his feet. He has some great intangibles. He didn't have great games against the best defenses we faced, but didn't do terribly (AC was an exception for reasons we all know).

We'll see. I'd love to see him make it.

 

[chipdouglas]

Have the editing standards gotten better at Bleacher Report? Unless they improved 50,000%, it's a bunch of mom's basement fanboys hacking out content. Wouldn't worry what a guy with zero offline writing credits thinks.

 

[Coug90]

Interesting thing to me about minshew is the most logical comparison for him is Baker Mayfield...and Minshew is actually bigger. And obviously mayfield was the first pick.

Now in the NFL you need to be able to play in shitty conditions. Doesn’t do much good to have a QB who can sling it through October then turns into a turd in November, December. If I’m Gardner I’m praying my WSU pro day is in shitty conditions and I nail it because he couldn’t throw it in the snow and he looked bothered in a light rain against Cal. He needs to prove he can be effective in bad weather.

 

[Suudy]

I hope Gardner has a helluva run up to, and participation in, the Senior Bowl. In articles I have read (including the one linked below), he is never mentioned among the top QB prospects. And I don't get it. All the stats, all the highlights, awards, etc. and he is completely off the radar - of the stupid sportswriters anyway.

Gardner doesn't have a John Elway arm, but I have seen a lot of NFL-caliber passes from him (the Utah game winner for example). He's big enough at 6'2", mobile enough, certainly tough and smart enough and a helluva leader. So what is his Achilles heel that I don't know about?

With Luke, we knew he was fragile, his arm was so-so, and he was not mobile. Fair enough. But Minshew? I see him as the perfect understudy to Drew Brees.

And this article - who in the hell is Daniel Jones of Duke? "After passing for 2,674 yards and 22 touchdowns with nine interceptions for the Blue Devils in 2018, Jones declared his intent to pursue his dream of playing in the NFL."

Or Drew Lock of Missouri? "Since then, an up-and-down 2018 season may have dinged Lock's stock a tad. His completion percentage (60.4) over the last two years wasn't a jaw-dropper,"

Or Ryan Finley of NC State? "He completed over 67 percent of his passes at North Carolina State in 2018 and flirted with 4,000 passing yards."

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...om&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral

These names are all on another report at ESPN:
http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2019/s...-draft-quarterback-class-everything-need-know

 

[acgcoug]

#9 on Kiper's board with a chance to move up the boards. Doubtful he would drop in the QB ratings, considering his moxy and maturity. He's probably #1 on the board in the maturity and leadership trait categories. He definitely gets drafted.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

I hope Gardner has a helluva run up to, and participation in, the Senior Bowl. In articles I have read (including the one linked below), he is never mentioned among the top QB prospects. And I don't get it. All the stats, all the highlights, awards, etc. and he is completely off the radar - of the stupid sportswriters anyway.

Gardner doesn't have a John Elway arm, but I have seen a lot of NFL-caliber passes from him (the Utah game winner for example). He's big enough at 6'2", mobile enough, certainly tough and smart enough and a helluva leader. So what is his Achilles heel that I don't know about?

With Luke, we knew he was fragile, his arm was so-so, and he was not mobile. Fair enough. But Minshew? I see him as the perfect understudy to Drew Brees.

And this article - who in the hell is Daniel Jones of Duke? "After passing for 2,674 yards and 22 touchdowns with nine interceptions for the Blue Devils in 2018, Jones declared his intent to pursue his dream of playing in the NFL."

Or Drew Lock of Missouri? "Since then, an up-and-down 2018 season may have dinged Lock's stock a tad. His completion percentage (60.4) over the last two years wasn't a jaw-dropper,"

Or Ryan Finley of NC State? "He completed over 67 percent of his passes at North Carolina State in 2018 and flirted with 4,000 passing yards."

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...om&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral

Why are you reading BR? It the Enquirer of sports writing.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Interesting thing to me about minshew is the most logical comparison for him is Baker Mayfield...and Minshew is actually bigger. And obviously mayfield was the first pick.

Now in the NFL you need to be able to play in shitty conditions. Doesn’t do much good to have a QB who can sling it through October then turns into a turd in November, December. If I’m Gardner I’m praying my WSU pro day is in shitty conditions and I nail it because he couldn’t throw it in the snow and he looked bothered in a light rain against Cal. He needs to prove he can be effective in bad weather.

It was a fcking blizzard. Zero visibility on the field. Nobody can pass in that garbage.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

I hope Gardner has a helluva run up to, and participation in, the Senior Bowl. In articles I have read (including the one linked below), he is never mentioned among the top QB prospects. And I don't get it. All the stats, all the highlights, awards, etc. and he is completely off the radar - of the stupid sportswriters anyway.

Gardner doesn't have a John Elway arm, but I have seen a lot of NFL-caliber passes from him (the Utah game winner for example). He's big enough at 6'2", mobile enough, certainly tough and smart enough and a helluva leader. So what is his Achilles heel that I don't know about?

With Luke, we knew he was fragile, his arm was so-so, and he was not mobile. Fair enough. But Minshew? I see him as the perfect understudy to Drew Brees.

And this article - who in the hell is Daniel Jones of Duke? "After passing for 2,674 yards and 22 touchdowns with nine interceptions for the Blue Devils in 2018, Jones declared his intent to pursue his dream of playing in the NFL."

Or Drew Lock of Missouri? "Since then, an up-and-down 2018 season may have dinged Lock's stock a tad. His completion percentage (60.4) over the last two years wasn't a jaw-dropper,"

Or Ryan Finley of NC State? "He completed over 67 percent of his passes at North Carolina State in 2018 and flirted with 4,000 passing yards."

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...om&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/28/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-gardner-minshew-ii/

I've pasted a friendly Minshew review, if that's what you need.

 

[95coug]

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/28/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-gardner-minshew-ii/

I've pasted a friendly Minshew review, if that's what you need.

“erratic throwing platforms and decision making yield a lot of irregular targets and inaccurate footballs”???

Did this evaluator watch games this season? I’ll grant that GM’s footwork isn’t perfect, but how do you complete 70+% of your passes for the season if you make bad decisions and are inaccurate?

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

“erratic throwing platforms and decision making yield a lot of irregular targets and inaccurate footballs”???

Did this evaluator watch games this season? I’ll grant that GM’s footwork isn’t perfect, but how do you complete 70+% of your passes for the season if you make bad decisions and are inaccurate?

His misses the first few games were quite bad. No one is perfect.

I suspect this guy's sample size isn't huge, but he equates GM to a starting QB in the NFL.

 

[Coug90]

It was a fcking blizzard. Zero visibility on the field. Nobody can pass in that garbage.

Browning did. And I’ve seen plenty of NFL QBs thrive in conditins just as bad if not worse. And he wasn’t sharp against Cal either. I love minshew and I think he’s an NFL talent, just saying if I’m a scout I’m gonna have that concern until I see him put it to rest.

 

[gpcoug]

Browning did. And I’ve seen plenty of NFL QBs thrive in conditins just as bad if not worse. And he wasn’t sharp against Cal either. I love minshew and I think he’s an NFL talent, just saying if I’m a scout I’m gonna have that concern until I see him put it to rest.

Yeah Browning really tore it up with 200 yards and an interception and Minshew's line vs Cal was terrible 35-51 for 335 yards 1 TD and 1 Interception.

 

[SDCoug]

Browning did. And I’ve seen plenty of NFL QBs thrive in conditins just as bad if not worse. And he wasn’t sharp against Cal either. I love minshew and I think he’s an NFL talent, just saying if I’m a scout I’m gonna have that concern until I see him put it to rest.

I’ve been reluctant to post this, I’m not sure why.

I spoke with a retired NFL QB recently. He’s a Minshew fan. Said Minshew cost himself a lot of money because of the Apple Cup performance. That the NFL wants a QB that can play in any weather. Basically, his comments support what you are saying.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

I’ve been reluctant to post this, I’m not sure why.

I spoke with a retired NFL QB recently. He’s a Minshew fan. Said Minshew cost himself a lot of money because of the Apple Cup performance. That the NFL wants a QB that can play in any weather. Basically, his comments support what you are saying.

There is a world of difference between Browning, who only had to adjust his timing on a known route, and GM having to make a read 10 yds down the field and try to figure out which route tree the WR is going to follow.

Comparing what Browning and GM did is apple and oranges.

 

[SDCoug]

Comparing what Browning and GM did is apple and oranges.

Sorry I wasn’t clear. My comments weren’t meant to be about Browning. I don’t even think about him, ever.

My comments were directed towards this part of 90’s post.

...I think he’s an NFL talent, just saying if I’m a scout I’m gonna have that concern until I see him put it to rest.

 

[gpcoug]

I’ve been reluctant to post this, I’m not sure why.

I spoke with a retired NFL QB recently. He’s a Minshew fan. Said Minshew cost himself a lot of money because of the Apple Cup performance. That the NFL wants a QB that can play in any weather. Basically, his comments support what you are saying.

Seems like if it were that big of a concern QBs from CA wouldn't be drafted in the first round constantly. Do they just assume they play well in bad weather?

 

[Coug90]

Sorry I wasn’t clear. My comments weren’t meant to be about Browning. I don’t even think about him, ever.

My comments were directed towards this part of 90’s post.

You don’t have to be sorry, you are correct. Minshew is awesome. Love the guy. 1 year as a Coug one of my favorite Cougs ever. But he couldn’t throw a decent pass in the sleet-snow. It was obvious from the start he wasn’t comfortable, and that was before footing was a problem.

I completely agree the offense we run is a bitch when visibility and footing is bad. In the NFL you gotta be able to throw in bad conditions. 25% of your games are gonna be in wind, rain, snow. As of now it’s going to be a knock on him whether you like it or not.

 

[PINGDUDE4]

You don’t have to be sorry, you are correct. Minshew is awesome. Love the guy. 1 year as a Coug one of my favorite Cougs ever. But he couldn’t throw a decent pass in the sleet-snow. It was obvious from the start he wasn’t comfortable, and that was before footing was a problem.

I completely agree the offense we run is a bitch when visibility and footing is bad. In the NFL you gotta be able to throw in bad conditions. 25% of your games are gonna be in wind, rain, snow. As of now it’s going to be a knock on him whether you like it or not.

Where are you getting this 25 % of games in bad weather stat. ?

I follow the Dallas Cowboys closely and they have not played in a bad weather game all year. And given how the playoffs are laying out they will not in the future even if they run the table @ LA, and then either @ New.Orleans or @ Home.

That is probably true for every Southern pro team or those with a dome, which is 2/3 of the league

The non-dome Northern teams might meet that "25 %" stat,, but that is only 10 or so teams out of 32.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Where are you getting this 25 % of games in bad weather stat. ?

I follow the Dallas Cowboys closely and they have not played in a bad weather game all year. And given how the playoffs are laying out they will not in the future even if they run the table @ LA, and then either @ New.Orleans or @ Home.

That is probably true for every Southern pro team or those with a dome, which is 2/3 of the league

The non-dome Northern teams might meet that "25 %" stat,, but that is only 10 or so teams out of 32.

He's pulling it all out io his kiester.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

I’ve been reluctant to post this, I’m not sure why.

I spoke with a retired NFL QB recently. He’s a Minshew fan. Said Minshew cost himself a lot of money because of the Apple Cup performance. That the NFL wants a QB that can play in any weather. Basically, his comments support what you are saying.

I hope that Minshew gets an opportunity to be in the NFL. He's a great guy, with a great personality and has the "IT" factor that you need to be a successful quarterback, in college at least. He's obviously a student of the game, a decent arm and the will to succeed. In so many ways, GM II checks all the boxes when it comes to being a good college quarterback.

However, he also has negative tendencies that will be counted against him. On more than one occasion this year, and against most of the better defenses, he showed a tendency to force the ball when under pressure at times. He didn't throw many picks, but when he did, it was often because he was just chucking up a prayer under pressure. He also had a tendency to get passes deflected on a regular basis. From a physical perspective, he doesn't check the height box, although that is less of an issue than it used to be. When you look at his overall career, it becomes easy to say that he's a system QB whose stats were artificially inflated. As I said, he has a decent arm, but there have been a dozen or so passes this year, where I was thinking, "Oh No!" as a ball floated a little too long for comfort. On top of all that, he was very mediocre in the snowy conditions of the Apple Cup and as mentioned in the quote, there are those that will hold that against him.

Regardless of criticisms, GM II has enough positives going for him that he should end up being a later round pick and get an opportunity to play, but only time will tell if he's got enough Russell Wilson in him to make it in the NFL.

 

[CougPatrol]

Browning did. And I’ve seen plenty of NFL QBs thrive in conditins just as bad if not worse. And he wasn’t sharp against Cal either. I love minshew and I think he’s an NFL talent, just saying if I’m a scout I’m gonna have that concern until I see him put it to rest.

No he didn’t. He completed passes in the early part of the game before the blizzard hit.

 

[PINGDUDE4]

I hope that Minshew gets an opportunity to be in the NFL. He's a great guy, with a great personality and has the "IT" factor that you need to be a successful quarterback, in college at least. He's obviously a student of the game, a decent arm and the will to succeed. In so many ways, GM II checks all the boxes when it comes to being a good college quarterback.

However, he also has negative tendencies that will be counted against him. On more than one occasion this year, and against most of the better defenses, he showed a tendency to force the ball when under pressure at times. He didn't throw many picks, but when he did, it was often because he was just chucking up a prayer under pressure. He also had a tendency to get passes deflected on a regular basis. From a physical perspective, he doesn't check the height box, although that is less of an issue than it used to be. When you look at his overall career, it becomes easy to say that he's a system QB whose stats were artificially inflated. As I said, he has a decent arm, but there have been a dozen or so passes this year, where I was thinking, "Oh No!" as a ball floated a little too long for comfort. On top of all that, he was very mediocre in the snowy conditions of the Apple Cup and as mentioned in the quote, there are those that will hold that against him.

Regardless of criticisms, GM II has enough positives going for him that he should end up being a later round pick and get an opportunity to play, but only time will tell if he's got enough Russell Wilson in him to make it in the NFL.

All good points. But this is the first thread I have ever read where how a QB plays in snowy conditions is some criteria for a QB to be drafted in the NFL. Like I posted very few teams even play more than a couple of games in bad weather and the vast majority of NFL teams play zero games in any season in bad weather. The domes and most of teams being in the South prevents that from happening.

The frozen tundra days of the NFL are for the most part history.

It will however be interesting if somehow Kansas City get dicey weather in the next couple of weeks, because I do not recall Mahomes ever playing in any snow his entire career.

 

[95coug]

I hope that Minshew gets an opportunity to be in the NFL. He's a great guy, with a great personality and has the "IT" factor that you need to be a successful quarterback, in college at least. He's obviously a student of the game, a decent arm and the will to succeed. In so many ways, GM II checks all the boxes when it comes to being a good college quarterback.

However, he also has negative tendencies that will be counted against him. On more than one occasion this year, and against most of the better defenses, he showed a tendency to force the ball when under pressure at times. He didn't throw many picks, but when he did, it was often because he was just chucking up a prayer under pressure. He also had a tendency to get passes deflected on a regular basis. From a physical perspective, he doesn't check the height box, although that is less of an issue than it used to be. When you look at his overall career, it becomes easy to say that he's a system QB whose stats were artificially inflated. As I said, he has a decent arm, but there have been a dozen or so passes this year, where I was thinking, "Oh No!" as a ball floated a little too long for comfort. On top of all that, he was very mediocre in the snowy conditions of the Apple Cup and as mentioned in the quote, there are those that will hold that against him.

Regardless of criticisms, GM II has enough positives going for him that he should end up being a later round pick and get an opportunity to play, but only time will tell if he's got enough Russell Wilson in him to make it in the NFL.

You hit on what I expect to come up as a big knock against him - size and relatively low trajectory. How many of his passes were batted down by the DL during the second half against Oregon, when they started coming back on us? Saw the same thing against Cal, UW, and a few against ISU. Batted balls are wasted downs, sometimes turnovers, so that's an item that needs to get fixed. Part of that is something he can't do anything about - his height (and his roster indication of 6'2" seems to be a little generous, based on seeing him in the fieldhouse). He's got mobility, so being on the short end isn't the career killer that it was 15-20 years ago, but it's still a concern.

As for the "oh, sh**" throws...there were a few, but there so many less this year than at any point in the last decade that they never really jumped to the level of a concern to me.

 

[SDCoug]

All good points. But this is the first thread I have ever read where how a QB plays in snowy conditions is some criteria for a QB to be drafted in the NFL. Like I posted very few teams even play more than a couple of games in bad weather and the vast majority of NFL teams play zero games in any season in bad weather. The domes and most of teams being in the South prevents that from happening.

The frozen tundra days of the NFL are for the most part history.

It will however be interesting if somehow Kansas City get dicey weather in the next couple of weeks, because I do not recall Mahomes ever playing in any snow his entire career.

For what it’s worth, the guy I spoke with didn’t say he wouldn’t get drafted. Just that he wasn’t going as high now and that would cost him some coin. I believe this particular guy (again, retired NFL QB) thought he was going to go pretty high prior to the AC.

 

[PINGDUDE4]

For what it’s worth, the guy I spoke with didn’t say he wouldn’t get drafted. Just that he wasn’t going as high now and that would cost him some coin. I believe this particular guy (again, retired NFL QB) thought he was going to go pretty high prior to the AC.

We will see and obviously a retired NFL QB knows more than I do on the subject. It sure looked to me at least that his biggest issue in the AC was visibility . That was where Washington's offense is better in those conditions , because Browning was basically throwing to spots rather than going through reads.

Even before the AC personally could go either way about him in the NFL. He has some intangibles with play making and improv skills . If a team values those high he might go earlier than most think.

 

[Loyal Coug]

For what it’s worth, the guy I spoke with didn’t say he wouldn’t get drafted. Just that he wasn’t going as high now and that would cost him some coin. I believe this particular guy (again, retired NFL QB) thought he was going to go pretty high prior to the AC.

I can totally buy into that opinion. The mutts were able to throw the ball in weather, we were not. And guys were open. And had Minshew shined and we had won, we would have gone to the Rose Bowl and been on a very big stage. So the game probably hurt him in that way as well.

 

[95coug]

Based on the full season, and really not dinging him that much for the AC debacle (because if we're being honest, he's not the only one who didn't look good that week - I'm looking at you, everyone on the O line), here's my thoughts:

• He's a solid player, makes good decisions, and isn't likely to make mistakes that lose games.
• His arm is strong enough to keep defenses honest, but probably not enough to stretch them vertically.
• Team player, makes those around him better to an extent. Not going to turn around a bad team, not going to take games over with his talent.
• Good mobility & elusiveness, good feel for pressure and when it's time to run. Downfield, sometimes takes unnecessary hits by trying to get just a little more.
• Accurate on most throws. Consistently puts the ball where only his received can get it, especially to the sidelines. Some deeper throws tend to hang, especially when throwing over the middle
• Takes care of the ball. Doesn't make a lot of bad throws into coverage or take bad sacks. Keeps the offense ahead of the chains.
  
• Solid leader, good with the media. Personality, without character issues.
  
• A little undersized, not a real high release - leads to passes batted at the line
• Seems to struggle in weather that isn't perfect (snow during AC, wind at Colorado, rain against Cal)
• Not very productive until placed in the Air Raid, surrounded by solid receivers.
• Some concerns about durability/longevity due to size and downfield contact

Now, my amateur draft analysis:

He's not a franchise QB. I don't even think any team is going to look at him as a QB in waiting. He's going to be a backup option/caretaker/tackling dummy until he proves he's something else. He won't even cross anyone's mind in rounds 1-2. There may be a glimmer of possibility that a current playoff team with limited needs and a surplus of picks - and who sees maybe a flash of Russell Wilson - maybe they'll start thinking about him in the 3rd. As much as I like the kid, I think Minshew would be a reach there - the kind of reach that gets people fired if it doesn't work.
.
I think the mid-4th is the area it starts getting more likely teams think about taking a flyer on him. That's where the risk-reward calculation starts balancing out, and as shallow as the talent pool is in this year's draft, I think there's likely to be a lot of picks that seem strange in rounds 4-5-6. Kind of depends who else is still on the board at that point too, but I wouldn't be too surprised if he went in the late 4th. 5-6 seems more likely.

Possible destinations: Just about anyone could take a swing at a deep backup QB. But places he might fit, and I think have an emerging need: New Orleans, San Diego, Kansas City, Oakland/Vegas?
(Seriously, how perfect is New Orleans for Minshew?)