MSN Link that Loyal Missed

[Stretch 74]

Might be the only one he has missed.

This is a short article by Mark Penn, who is a pollster. Primarily used by Dems, if I am not mistaken. I have seen him on FNC, and he comes off as someone that just deals in the realities of what the data tells him. He doesn't try to spin it off one way or the other to try to make it look good for one side. He tries to lay out in his article how the Dems have gotten off the rails over the years, going back into the 90's and taking it up through today. I think he does an excellent job of analyzing what has happened to their party over the years, and I found the article very interesting.

Here is a surprising comment in the very first paragraph: "Unless there is a major reset, I expect they will have an unexpected wipeout in next year's midterm elections."

I sure don't hear other folks saying things like that.

Edit: Oh, crap! Sorry for the brain cramp. Here it is......

MSN

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Might be the only one he has missed.

This is a short article by Mark Penn, who is a pollster. Primarily used by Dems, if I am not mistaken. I have seen him on FNC, and he comes off as someone that just deals in the realities of what the data tells him. He doesn't try to spin it off one way or the other to try to make it look good for one side. He tries to lay out in his article how the Dems have gotten off the rails over the years, going back into the 90's and taking it up through today. I think he does an excellent job of analyzing what has happened to their party over the years, and I found the article very interesting.

Here is a surprising comment in the very first paragraph: "Unless there is a major reset, I expect they will have an unexpected wipeout in next year's midterm elections."

I sure don't hear other folks saying things like that.

A link would help. And no, not the missing link. We elected him. Baboons are kind of orange - hmmm. See the connection?

But I don't disagree with what you have posted. Dems have gone off the rails. Hanging their hat on LBGTQ "rights", supporting men with dicks in women's sports, DEI, breaching the PNW dams, etc. I disagree with all of that. The People's Republic of Washington? We are perhaps the worst in the US in many areas.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Might be the only one he has missed.

This is a short article by Mark Penn, who is a pollster. Primarily used by Dems, if I am not mistaken. I have seen him on FNC, and he comes off as someone that just deals in the realities of what the data tells him. He doesn't try to spin it off one way or the other to try to make it look good for one side. He tries to lay out in his article how the Dems have gotten off the rails over the years, going back into the 90's and taking it up through today. I think he does an excellent job of analyzing what has happened to their party over the years, and I found the article very interesting.

Here is a surprising comment in the very first paragraph: "Unless there is a major reset, I expect they will have an unexpected wipeout in next year's midterm elections."

I sure don't hear other folks saying things like that.

Edit: Oh, crap! Sorry for the brain cramp. Here it is......

MSN

To be fair, if Democrats can't figure out that 80% of Americans are sick and tired of their perceived overzealous support of fringe groups at the expense of everyone else, it could get ugly. Even though I'm not a fan of Donald Trump, I get why people hate a lot of Democratic priorities and I don't support many of them. The Democrats have done a fantastic job of bolstering MAGA by being the opposite in every way....forgetting that even if Trump is an idiot who doesn't know when to tone things down.....he understands what motivates a lot of people and playing the opposite game is killing them.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

To be fair, if Democrats can't figure out that 80% of Americans are sick and tired of their perceived overzealous support of fringe groups at the expense of everyone else, it could get ugly. Even though I'm not a fan of Donald Trump, I get why people hate a lot of Democratic priorities and I don't support many of them. The Democrats have done a fantastic job of bolstering MAGA by being the opposite in every way....forgetting that even if Trump is an idiot who doesn't know when to tone things down.....he understands what motivates a lot of people and playing the opposite game is killing them.

Yeah, but why? To what end have the two major parties decided to cater to the fringe? Especially when its been obvious over the last 20 years that a centrist candidate could win either party. I remember Hillary went centrist a bit but couldn't stop herself from "deplorables" type moments.

Statistically, appealing to the fringe isn't going to move the needle at the polls, at least not enough to tip the scale one way or another.

I truly don't understand our politics besides knowing that it is incredibly broken. The legislators are the oligarchy in this country. Their friends and cronies are all getting wealthy off of the American taxpayer and it needs to be fixed. Idgaf what letter is attached to the person who fixes it, but it needs to happen sooner than later.

 

[Stretch 74]

To be fair, if Democrats can't figure out that 80% of Americans are sick and tired of their perceived overzealous support of fringe groups at the expense of everyone else, it could get ugly. Even though I'm not a fan of Donald Trump, I get why people hate a lot of Democratic priorities and I don't support many of them. The Democrats have done a fantastic job of bolstering MAGA by being the opposite in every way....forgetting that even if Trump is an idiot who doesn't know when to tone things down.....he understands what motivates a lot of people and playing the opposite game is killing them.

Understatement of the year, thanks for the chuckle!

 

[Stretch 74]

Yeah, but why? To what end have the two major parties decided to cater to the fringe? Especially when its been obvious over the last 20 years that a centrist candidate could win either party. I remember Hillary went centrist a bit but couldn't stop herself from "deplorables" type moments.

Statistically, appealing to the fringe isn't going to move the needle at the polls, at least not enough to tip the scale one way or another.

I truly don't understand our politics besides knowing that it is incredibly broken. The legislators are the oligarchy in this country. Their friends and cronies are all getting wealthy off of the American taxpayer and it needs to be fixed. Idgaf what letter is attached to the person who fixes it, but it needs to happen sooner than later.

So what you are saying is that the presidential candidates have lied like rugs in order to get elected and then veered way left?

I heard earlier today on a section regarding lawfare that Obama had 44 9-0 losses in the Supreme Court. No which side is it that is being authoritarian again?

 

[95coug]

Yeah, my question is that if it’s know. The Dems have gone off the rails, why has the GOP chosen to go off the rails in the other direction? If one side is a bunch of loons, stick to your position and you’ll look good. It’s not a good reason to go running through the other wall.

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

Yeah, but why? To what end have the two major parties decided to cater to the fringe? Especially when its been obvious over the last 20 years that a centrist candidate could win either party. I remember Hillary went centrist a bit but couldn't stop herself from "deplorables" type moments.

Statistically, appealing to the fringe isn't going to move the needle at the polls, at least not enough to tip the scale one way or another.

I truly don't understand our politics besides knowing that it is incredibly broken. The legislators are the oligarchy in this country. Their friends and cronies are all getting wealthy off of the American taxpayer and it needs to be fixed. Idgaf what letter is attached to the person who fixes it, but it needs to happen sooner than later.

They cater to the fringe because that's actually where rhe votes are. Those are the most enthusiastic,.rabid and most likely followers of politics. The middle has checked out.

How much of the potential voter rolls actually voted? How many eligible voters decided to NOT vote? That leaves the most passionate who will always be incentivized to vote.

And of those that vote, in this last election trump didn't even get 50% of that. So that's like 50% of 50% (or so).

I heard a republican campaign strategist say about 8 yrs ago that both parties are really only courting and fighting for 3% of the electorate that is still engaged in the middle because the fringes are already locked in. That's all I have to say about that

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

They cater to the fringe because that's actually where rhe votes are. Those are the most enthusiastic,.rabid and most likely followers of politics. The middle has checked out.

How much of the potential voter rolls actually voted? How many eligible voters decided to NOT vote? That leaves the most passionate who will always be incentivized to vote.

And of those that vote, in this last election trump didn't even get 50% of that. So that's like 50% of 50% (or so).

I heard a republican campaign strategist say about 8 yrs ago that both parties are really only courting and fighting for 3% of the electorate that is still engaged in the middle because the fringes are already locked in. That's all I have to say about that

Bring the numbers or I'll just have to believe you're pulling it out of your kiester.

Let do a small sample size:
how people do you know who voted? How many of those are fringe (trans "rights", BLM, true marxists, etc)? Do your numbers add up?

 

[95coug]

They cater to the fringe because that's actually where rhe votes are. Those are the most enthusiastic,.rabid and most likely followers of politics. The middle has checked out.

How much of the potential voter rolls actually voted? How many eligible voters decided to NOT vote? That leaves the most passionate who will always be incentivized to vote.

And of those that vote, in this last election trump didn't even get 50% of that. So that's like 50% of 50% (or so).

I heard a republican campaign strategist say about 8 yrs ago that both parties are really only courting and fighting for 3% of the electorate that is still engaged in the middle because the fringes are already locked in. That's all I have to say about that

Bring the numbers or I'll just have to believe you're pulling it out of your kiester.

Let do a small sample size:
how people do you know who voted? How many of those are fringe (trans "rights", BLM, true marxists, etc)? Do your numbers add up?

I dug into those numbers a couple weeks ago. Don’t remember the source of the top of my head, but here are the numbers:

240-245 million people who are eligible to vote in the US. Only around 165 million of those are registered to vote, and somewhere around 155 million actually voted.

So 10 million registered voters didn’t show up at all. More than enough to change the result of most elections in the last half century. And the number of people who haven’t even bothered to register outnumbers those who voted for any candidate.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

I dug into those numbers a couple weeks ago. Don’t remember the source of the top of my head, but here are the numbers:

240-245 million people who are eligible to vote in the US. Only around 165 million of those are registered to vote, and somewhere around 155 million actually voted.

So 10 million registered voters didn’t show up at all. More than enough to change the result of most elections in the last half century. And the number of people who haven’t even bothered to register outnumbers those who voted for any candidate.

Ok, thanks.

But isn't Krusty saying that 25% of those voters are the fringe? (50% of 50%) Or did I misunderstand? Because the point is the fringe isn't the voting base, or at least what I contend.

 

[95coug]

Ok, thanks.

But isn't Krusty saying that 25% of those voters are the fringe? (50% of 50%) Or did I misunderstand? Because the point is the fringe isn't the voting base, or at least what I contend.

Calling them the fringe may be a little overstatement, but I see where he’s coming from. A little less than a third of eligible people voted for each of the major candidates. A small percentage voted for other candidates. A little more than a third didn’t vote at all. The largest single block is actually people who haven’t even registered.

Seems reasonable to assume that the non-voters are the middle. They don’t care enough to pick a side, or they hate both sides. ~30% lie to their left and right. Some of each of those are voting for what they think is the lesser evil. I wouldn’t call those fringe either.

But, in each of those groups of 30%, probably 1/2 to 3/4 of them vote for candidates based solely on the letter behind their name. Platforms, statements, and sexual oddities are irrelevant as long as they’re in the right party.

Those people are fringe. And their numbers seem to be growing.

 

[UberCougars]

Fire 🔥 b*mbing Tesla’s is fringe.

Planning, funding or executing such fringe behavior is a choice and will remove you permanently from the voting pool.

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

Ok, thanks.

But isn't Krusty saying that 25% of those voters are the fringe? (50% of 50%) Or did I misunderstand? Because the point is the fringe isn't the voting base, or at least what I contend.

No, to be clear, I wouldn't characterize the "base" of either party as completely fringe. I was just offering a reason as to why they cater to those edges. I would say that the most "rabid" and motivated voters tend to be motivated by those extreme messages.

You believe (and probs truthfully) that shit-stain47 won because the left spent too much messaging on small minority issues. We can kinda agree. But those messages were exploited successfully and packaged to the passionate right-wing to exaggerate the influence of transgender athletes and illegal alien crime.

95 did a good breakdown. My estimates were a bit off. But my general point that a minority of a majority was able to elect the president (as is usually the case) because the middle is mostly "checked out". And since most presidential elections seem to come down to just a few percentage points (like about 2-4) that's what political campaigns are fighting for.

Agree with you though...yeah, why don't they cater more to those mostly moderate middle voters to expand that slice to 5%? After all, the crazies on the extremes of both sides got no place else to go. Taihtsat

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Fire 🔥 b*mbing Tesla’s is fringe.

Planning, funding or executing such fringe behavior is a choice and will remove you permanently from the voting pool.

How many Tesla's have been blown up? How many times has it happened? I do hope that every idiot doing this goes to jail who did that but as far as I know, it really is a fringe thing and those people don't reflect the views of most Americans. You keep trying to drag everyone who is opposed to Trump and Musk into the same grouping as the firebombing idiots.