NET Rankings

[Coug90]

So, we moved up one spot. Teams ahead of us which make zero sense:

Gonzaga
Colorado State
Colorado
Utah
SD State
Michigan St
Cincinnati
Clemson
Boise State

I thought these formulas were supposed to remove bias. What a joke. Should be 35 at worst right now.

 

[7ICoug]

Beating the Huskies ranked 73 does nothing for us. We should and did beat 'em -- barely.

 

[Coug90]

Beating the Huskies ranked 73 does nothing for us. We should and did beat 'em -- barely.

We also beat Utah, Colorado, and BSU from the above list.

 

[7ICoug]

They all to those games are what sent us up the chart. No way that getting an expected win sends you farther up the rankings. And FWIW, Utah, and Colorado have both also beat us.

 

[Wazzubrooz]

Look at WSU’s non-conference slate, there is your answer. Too many teams in the 300 range. It’s the math averages. They don’t care about head-to-head. It’s kind of dumb.

 

[Coug90]

Look at WSU’s non-conference slate, there is your answer. Too many teams in the 300 range. It’s the math averages. They don’t care about head-to-head. It’s kind of dumb.

Look at Gonzaga’s CONFERENCE slate. How TF are they 26 and we are 40?

 

[Coug-Vandal]

CBS's Bracketology has us in as a 10 seed. Jerry Palm is obviously higher on the Cougs than Lunardi.

 

[mikalalas]

Just win the games WSU should, like Ore St, Cal, ASU, 8-11 USC, 8-11 UCLA.

Losing to Arizona, Oregon, 1 other is ok.

WSU only has to win 4,5 more games to be 21,22-9, 12-8 in conference, tied for 3rd, alone in 4th in conference, and then win at least 1 PAC 12 tourny win, for 22,23-10, 13-9 in conference, tied for 3rd, alone in 4th in conference.

That's good enough for about a 59% to 63% chance to bubble into NCAA tournament.

WSU beats Ore St, and WSU playing with house money, where a expected win, can be a loss, where only need to win 3,4 more games, instead of 4,5 more to make NCAA tournament.

If WSU goes 3-3 on road vs UW, Ore St, Oregon, WSU almost guaranteed to get in NCAA tournament.

Just win the games that should, and don't lose to Cal, etc, and WSU gets into NCAA tournament, no matter what Lunardi, ESPN, etc, say.

 

[SaveFerris]

They all to those games are what sent us up the chart. No way that getting an expected win sends you farther up the rankings. And FWIW, Utah, and Colorado have both also beat us.

Yeah, the women moved up 1 spot after knocking off UCLA on the road. It was a big weekend of upsets as well. Creme actually spoke to it basically saying fans think a big win results in a equal move when in reality it's just 1 game on a teams entire resume.

We don't need to "win out", but we have always needed to win a lot, get help in the right places from teams we have played, and avoid "bad losses". It's going to be a grind to get in.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Look at WSU’s non-conference slate, there is your answer. Too many teams in the 300 range. It’s the math averages. They don’t care about head-to-head. It’s kind of dumb.

Crappy non-con and a Quad 3 loss to Cal are killing us at the moment. If we go 6-3 to finish, I think we'll be fine. Anything less than that and we are at the mercy of a committee that probably doesn't believe that we even have a basketball team.

 

[Coug1990]

Crappy non-con and a Quad 3 loss to Cal are killing us at the moment. If we go 6-3 to finish, I think we'll be fine. Anything less than that and we are at the mercy of a committee that probably doesn't believe that we even have a basketball team.

Interestingly enough, Cal has won 3 of 4 or 5 of their last 8. They have improved a lot as the season has gone along. If the Cougars do make it to the tournament, they may be undervalued because their non-conference is bringing them down in the rankings.

 

[roses04]

There are no easy road games left on the schedule, although many are penciling in OSU as a win they are 11-2, at home, with a win over AZ, AZ is 12-0, Oregon 10-1, and ASU is 8-3. The other 5 games are at home. UW was 9-3, fortunately we pulled that out. Worst home record is Cal at 7-5, and that loss is going to bite us in the end. Anything less than 6-3, with the 9 games left, has us on the outside looking in.

 

[SaveFerris]

Win at home, split on the road.

 

[7ICoug]

Actually I think they need another sweep, but you're right usually the split will work.

 

[mikalalas]

Lunardi, ESPN now has WSU as last four in.

CBS has WSU as #9 seed.

Only have to go 6-3, IF IF

1. No PAC 12 tourny wins.

2. 100% chance to make NCAA tourny.

3. If not at least tied for 3rd, alone in 4th in conference. 12-8 in conference is probably good enough for that.


5-4 is enough IF IF

1. 1 or 2 PAC 12 tourny wins

2. If at least tied for 3rd, alone in 4th in conference. 12-8.

If that happens then 21 wins + 1 or 2 PAC tourny wins for 22,23 wins, then about 59% to 63% chance to bubble into NCAA tournament.

What that means is that there is ONLY about a 37% chance that WSU doesn't make NCAA if that happens.

That means that if 5-4 + 1,2 PAC 12 tourny wins scenario, there is about a 37% chance that there are a lot of AQ upsets, enough to where WSU doesn't make NCAA, and about a 63% chance there isn't enough AQ upsets and WSU makes NCAA.

63% chance is a pretty good chance.

So 5-4 + 1 or 2 PAC tourny wins at VERY MINIMUM.

Anything less = No NCAA tourny.

Anything more = better chance of making NCAA tourny or 100% chance at making NCAA tourny depending on how many more wins then 5-4 + 1,2 PAC tourny wins

 

[mikalalas]

WSU should win at home in Pullman against 11-11 UCLA, USC, 9-13 CAL

WSU already has beaten Ore St once and Ore St is 3-8 in conference

Altho those teams can beat WSU if WSU overlooks them, takes those wins for granted, don't give max effort, etc, that probably won't happen this late in season. WSU has also improved.

And altho those teams have gotten better, tougher, etc, WSU has gotten better, tougher, etc.

So that should be 4 EXPECTED wins.

WSU just needs at least 1 more win(at least 2 more wins would be better)

And WSU should be able to get 1 more win easily

Candidates for that extra win

ASU

Stanford

WSU probably loses to Arizona, Oregon on the road.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

There are no easy road games left on the schedule, although many are penciling in OSU as a win they are 11-2, at home, with a win over AZ, AZ is 12-0, Oregon 10-1, and ASU is 8-3. The other 5 games are at home. UW was 9-3, fortunately we pulled that out. Worst home record is Cal at 7-5, and that loss is going to bite us in the end. Anything less than 6-3, with the 9 games left, has us on the outside looking in.

I'm saying the same thing. Anything less than a 6-3 finish is a disaster for us. Hell, we beat Colorado on January 27th and that dipshit Lunardi still had the Buffs in the tournament and WSU out in his bracketology after that loss. We have almost no room for error.

I'll say that while OSU may be 11-2 at home...they are 3-2 at home against Pac-12 schools and they just got thumped by a pretty mediocre USC team. If we lose to OSU, we can forget about our tourney hopes. Below is what I'd like to see us do (green=win, red=lose). I'd prefer undefeated but it ain't gonna happen.

@ OSU
@ UO
Cal
Stanford
@ UA
@ ASU
USC
UCLA
UW

You can argue that we can afford to lose to UW at home and still get in but who wants that? The Cal loss doesn't look as bad as it did at the time but we have to beat them at home. If Cal can beat the LA schools and Oregon State, it increases the chances that they would be a Quad 2 loss instead of Quad 3 where they were at the time we gacked against them. Barring a big run by one of those teams on our schedule, you could argue that we need to finish 7-2 to make sure that we don't get moved out based on "tradition". Win at least one game in the Pac-12 tournament and I'd like our chances at making the tourney with a 24-9 overall record.

 

[Coug90]

I'm saying the same thing. Anything less than a 6-3 finish is a disaster for us. Hell, we beat Colorado on January 27th and that dipshit Lunardi still had the Buffs in the tournament and WSU out in his bracketology after that loss. We have almost no room for error.

I'll say that while OSU may be 11-2 at home...they are 3-2 at home against Pac-12 schools and they just got thumped by a pretty mediocre USC team. If we lose to OSU, we can forget about our tourney hopes. Below is what I'd like to see us do (green=win, red=lose). I'd prefer undefeated but it ain't gonna happen.

@ OSU
@ UO
Cal
Stanford
@ UA
@ ASU
USC
UCLA
UW

You can argue that we can afford to lose to UW at home and still get in but who wants that? The Cal loss doesn't look as bad as it did at the time but we have to beat them at home. If Cal can beat the LA schools and Oregon State, it increases the chances that they would be a Quad 2 loss instead of Quad 3 where they were at the time we gacked against them. Barring a big run by one of those teams on our schedule, you could argue that we need to finish 7-2 to make sure that we don't get moved out based on "tradition". Win at least one game in the Pac-12 tournament and I'd like our chances at making the tourney with a 24-9 overall record.

24-9 we are probably ranked. Don’t think any question there. 23 is the magic #. 22 things get dicey. 21, need a bunch of qualifiers to win their conf tourney. 20> NIT. Keep playing the way we are we will be fine. We are no worse than 3rd best in the conf and I wouldn’t be shocked if we beat UA or UO on the road. This teams’ game travels well.

 

[mikalalas]

I'm saying the same thing. Anything less than a 6-3 finish is a disaster for us. Hell, we beat Colorado on January 27th and that dipshit Lunardi still had the Buffs in the tournament and WSU out in his bracketology after that loss. We have almost no room for error.

I'll say that while OSU may be 11-2 at home...they are 3-2 at home against Pac-12 schools and they just got thumped by a pretty mediocre USC team. If we lose to OSU, we can forget about our tourney hopes. Below is what I'd like to see us do (green=win, red=lose). I'd prefer undefeated but it ain't gonna happen.

@ OSU
@ UO
Cal
Stanford
@ UA
@ ASU
USC
UCLA
UW

You can argue that we can afford to lose to UW at home and still get in but who wants that? The Cal loss doesn't look as bad as it did at the time but we have to beat them at home. If Cal can beat the LA schools and Oregon State, it increases the chances that they would be a Quad 2 loss instead of Quad 3 where they were at the time we gacked against them. Barring a big run by one of those teams on our schedule, you could argue that we need to finish 7-2 to make sure that we don't get moved out based on "tradition". Win at least one game in the Pac-12 tournament and I'd like our chances at making the tourney with a 24-9 overall record.

Now your being absurd.

WSU does NOT have to go 7-2, and WSU most certainly does not have to win 1,2,3 games in PAC tourny on top of going 7-2 to make NCAA tourny

CBS already has WSU in at #9.

Yes if you want a 100% GUARANTEED to make NCAA tournament, then 7-2, would be nice, required.

But if about a 59% to 63% chance to make NCAA tournament is ok, then 5,6 wins, + 1,2 PAC tourny wins.

If WSU finishes in 3rd, 4th place, whether that's 13-7, 12-8, 11-9, an or whether that's 3,4,5,6,7 more wins that gets WSU in at least 3rd, 4th place, then WSU is PROBABLY in NCAA tourny.

The ONLY way WSU does NOT get into NCAA tournament as a 4th in PAC 12 team, is if A LOT of the 30-0 type teams in conferences that usually only get 1 NCAA bid, gets upset, doesn't win their conferences 1 AQ bid, but despite that still get into the NCAA.

The PAC 12 is going to get 3,4,5 teams in NCAA tourny depending on how many AQ upsets there are.

If WSU is in 2nd, 3rd place in PAC 12, they are not going to take Colorado, Utah over WSU, if Colorado, Utah is 4,5,6 in conference.

ONLY 2 PAC 12 TEAMS IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF PAC 12 HAS GOTTEN AT LEAST 22 WINS AND NOT MADE NCAA tournament. 1 of them was ASU.

AND NO, ZIP, NADA, NONE, ETC, PAC 12 TEAM THAT HAS GOTTEN AT LEAST 23 WINS HAS FAILED TO GET INTO NCAA TOURNAMENT IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE PAC 12.

WSU does NOT have to get 24,25,26 wins split between regular season and PAC 12 tourny.

24,25,26 wins is either good enough, or almost good enough to WIN THE CONFERENCE, FINISH IN 1ST PLACE IN CONFERENCE.

WSU DOES NOT HAVE TO WIN CONFERENCE, FINISH IN 1ST IN CONFERENCE, FINISH 2ND IN CONFERENCE IN ORDER TO MAKE NCAA TOURNEY.

A 3RD PLACE CONFERENCE FINISH IS GOOD ENOUGH TO MAKE NCAA TOURNY.

CBS, ESPN, and all the so called experts are saying that the Top 3,4,5 PAC 12 teams that finish in top 3,4,5 in Conference, WILL goto the NCAA tournament.

 

[mikalalas]

24-9 we are probably ranked. Don’t think any question there. 23 is the magic #. 22 things get dicey. 21, need a bunch of qualifiers to win their conf tourney. 20> NIT. Keep playing the way we are we will be fine. We are no worse than 3rd best in the conf and I wouldn’t be shocked if we beat UA or UO on the road. This teams’ game travels well.

I agree with most of what you say here.

23 in regular season and WSU doesn't have to win a game in conference tourny.

22 wins and WSU has to win a game in conference tourny

21 wins + 2 PAC 12 tourny wins gets to that magic number of 23 wins

Less then 21 wins + 2 PAC tourny wins = NIT.

If WSU finishes in 2,3,4 place in conference, then WSU is in NCAA tournament, no matter how few, many more wins that it takes to get there.

 

[SaveFerris]

Actually I think they need another sweep, but you're right usually the split will work.

Would love a road sweep, but as good as we are playing it's probably a lot to ask with our depth. Glad we are at least on the bubble at this point. We still control our own destiny. With 9 games left plus the Tournament, it feels like throwing darts at this point.

 

[Coug90]

Would love a road sweep, but as good as we are playing it's probably a lot to ask with our depth. Glad we are at least on the bubble at this point. We still control our own destiny. With 9 games left plus the Tournament, it feels like throwing darts at this point.

Nobody’s untouchable in this conference right now. We could sweep the Oregon schools and get swept by the LA schools at home, both of which seem to be playing better ball. Thing I like about this team is there’s a lot of ways they score, so if someone’s having an off night we can still beat anyone. It’s also crazy how big we are…and the big guys aren’t just foul eaters, they have skill at both ends.

One concern is free throws. Shooting sub 70% at the line can bite you in the ass this time of year, it’s hard to put games away and pull away from mediocre teams if you are missing the front end of one and one’s.

 

[mikalalas]

Also WSU is PROBABLY NOT going to win 24,25 games. 23 wins pre NCAA tourny at most.

So SUPPOSEDLY IF 24,25 wins was required to make NCAA tourny, then WSU would NOT make NCAA, which wouldn't jive with Jerry Palm, Lunardi, Ken Pom, saying WSU is going to be in NCAA.

I'm pretty sure that Jerry Palm, Lunardi, Ken Pom do NOT think that WSU has to win 24,25 games, go 6-3,7-2, + 1 or 2 PAC tourny wins in addition to 6-3, 7-2, etc, to make NCAA.

I'm pretty sure that they think that if WSU finishes in at least 4th place an or 3rd place in conference(And they probably think that 5 more wins, gets them 2,3,4 in conference), and gets at least 5 wins + 2 PAC tourny wins, then WSU probably gets into NCAA.

24,25 wins is ONLY required IF IF IF want a 100% ABSOLUTE GUARANTEED to make NCAA similar to winning AQ tourny.

WSU does NOT have to win AQ tourny or 24,25 wins to make NCAA, and Palm, Lunardi, Ken Pom do NOT think that WSU has to win AQ PAC tourny, or win 24,25 games to get into NCAA tourny.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Would love a road sweep, but as good as we are playing it's probably a lot to ask with our depth. Glad we are at least on the bubble at this point. We still control our own destiny. With 9 games left plus the Tournament, it feels like throwing darts at this point.

No shit. This thread reminds of CFP chatter that starts in about week 4 of the FB season. How about we play about 6 more games and then get excited?

 

[Flatlandcoug]

No shit. This thread reminds of CFP chatter that starts in about week 4 of the FB season. How about we play about 6 more games and then get excited?

We have played almost 3/4 of our games this season and none of us are talking about how far we'll go in the NCAA if we make it. It's not even the same conversation as week 4 blowhards in football.

We know enough about this team to know that they have the talent to make the tournament if they can be consistent...but last night shows that we can't take anything for granted and it could all come undone with a couple poorly timed losses.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

We have played almost 3/4 of our games this season and none of us are talking about how far we'll go in the NCAA if we make it. It's not even the same conversation as week 4 blowhards in football.

We know enough about this team to know that they have the talent to make the tournament if they can be consistent...but last night shows that we can't take anything for granted and it could all come undone with a couple poorly timed losses.

Meh - it's pretty much the same. Let's just play a few more games. and we are 2/3 done not 3/4. So there!

 

[Coug90]

yay up one spot! I was looking through these a bit more. SC is 21-3 playing in the SEC with wins against #5 and #6 teams in the country…and are below us in NET. Darts at the wall is more scientific than whatever this POS system is.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

yay up one spot! I was looking through these a bit more. SC is 21-3 playing in the SEC with wins against #5 and #6 teams in the country…and are below us in NET. Darts at the wall is more scientific than whatever this POS system is.

I was talking to my wife and laughing about how subjective it is. We just beat Colorado, have a far better record in Quad 1 games and a better record, in conference and overall....but we are behind them in the NET rankings. Wake Forest is 0-3 in Quad 1 games, has a worse overall record but is 7 spots ahead of us in the rankings. It's a joke of a system.

 

[Glad Cougar]

I was talking to my wife and laughing about how subjective it is. We just beat Colorado, have a far better record in Quad 1 games and a better record, in conference and overall....but we are behind them in the NET rankings. Wake Forest is 0-3 in Quad 1 games, has a worse overall record but is 7 spots ahead of us in the rankings. It's a joke of a system.

Way too much emphasis on strength of non-conference schedule. It's not like WSU didn't play a single good team pre-conference– Boise State, Santa Clara, and Mississippi State are all good teams. How about putting more emphasis on trending? Teams do get better as the season progresses and should be awarded as such, IMO.

Glad Cougar

 

[mikalalas]

yay up one spot! I was looking through these a bit more. SC is 21-3 playing in the SEC with wins against #5 and #6 teams in the country…and are below us in NET. Darts at the wall is more scientific than whatever this POS system is.

That's messed up, 3 straight road wins, 1 of which was a semi high quality win vs UW, 1 was a high quality win vs Oregon, and WSU only went up about 2,3, spots, 1 spot for UW, zero for Ore St, 1 more for Oregon, what a joke.

Doesn't matter in a way, and WSU still only needs 4,5 more wins+ 1 PAC tourny win + top 2,3 in conference. If WSU gets at least get that, then they can rank WSU NET 100 NET ranking, and WSU would still go to NCAA tourny despite a NET of 100, since WSU would still likely be a top 25 team, with 6 Quad 1 like high quality wins, since no way WSU would fail to make NCAA tourny if finish in 2,3 in PAC 12.

 

[mikalalas]

yay up one spot! I was looking through these a bit more. SC is 21-3 playing in the SEC with wins against #5 and #6 teams in the country…and are below us in NET. Darts at the wall is more scientific than whatever this POS system is.

SC is not a good example of your point, since they are 10-13 overall, and shit conference record despite the wins against the #5, #6 teams in the country. So no USC should NOT have a high NET, and SHOULD be WAY below us in the NET.

THE SC NET, is one of the rare few they are right on, got right.

 

[altolug]

All I can say is pack the gym for the home stretch. This is getting good. Let’s get the mojo flowing and screw the NET.

 

[mikalalas]

SC is not a good example of your point, since they are 10-13 overall, and shit conference record despite the wins against the #5, #6 teams in the country. So no USC should NOT have a high NET, and SHOULD be WAY below us in the NET.

THE SC NET, is one of the rare few they are right on, got right.

My bad thought you were talking about SOUTHERN CAL.

Didn't realize you were talking about South Carolina

 

[mikalalas]

All I can say is pack the gym for the home stretch. This is getting good. Let’s get the mojo flowing and screw the NET.

More important then NET is that if WSU finishes 1,2,3 in PAC 12, then it wouldn't matter what WSU's NET is, as WSU would still make NCAA tourny. So finishing 1,2,3 in conference is more important then NET.

 

[Coug90]

That's messed up, 3 straight road wins, 1 of which was a semi high quality win vs UW, 1 was a high quality win vs Oregon, and WSU only went up about 2,3, spots, 1 spot for UW, zero for Ore St, 1 more for Oregon, what a joke.

Doesn't matter in a way, and WSU still only needs 4,5 more wins+ 1 PAC tourny win + top 2,3 in conference. If WSU gets at least get that, then they can rank WSU NET 100 NET ranking, and WSU would still go to NCAA tourny despite a NET of 100, since WSU would still likely be a top 25 team, with 6 Quad 1 like high quality wins, since no way WSU would fail to make NCAA tourny if finish in 2,3 in PAC 12.

It does matter though because some jack hole who’s to lazy to do their research will be responsible for choosing and seeding these teams in the tourney, and will do so based off of these seriously flawed rankings.

Yeah if you’re WSU keep winning and it matters less. But as good as they are playing there will be slip ups down the stretch that’s inevitable.

 

[Coug90]

My bad thought you were talking about SOUTHERN CAL.

Didn't realize you were talking about South Carolina

It’s a weird anomaly. They had a BAD loss to Bama mid season where they were run off the floor. I have no idea the context maybe they had a couple kids suspended or something, who knows. But the rest of their resume outside of that game looks like a top 5/10 type team and no worse than a 3 seed. Their NET implies they are a bubble team/11/12 seed…wtf?! You play 30 games every team is going to have a stinker or two that’s unexplainable.

 

[mikalalas]

It does matter though because some jack hole who’s to lazy to do their research will be responsible for choosing and seeding these teams in the tourney, and will do so based off of these seriously flawed rankings.

Yeah if you’re WSU keep winning and it matters less. But as good as they are playing there will be slip ups down the stretch that’s inevitable.

4 more wins is the MAGIC MINIMUM number. WSU gets at least 4 more wins and WSU is IN.

 

[Coug90]

4 more wins is the MAGIC MINIMUM number. WSU gets at least 4 more wins and WSU is IN.

I think 5 to be safe. Either way hard to imagine they don’t get there with 5 of the 7 left at home + opps for wins in the Pac 2 tourney as a higher seed.

 

[Coug90]

College basketball rankings: Purdue's Zach Edey hits first 3-pointer, likely to win player of the year again

Edey is a near lock to repeat as NPOY and has the Boilermakers No. 1 in the CBS Sports Top 25 And 1

www.cbssports.com

 

[Coug90]

I’m not sure how often they update this thing but we are sitting at 28 right now and Arizona stayed at 3. Make it make sense. If we are SO GOOD that Arizona loses to us at home and doesn’t drop at all, how they hell are we 25 spots below them after sweeping them, better overall record, and better conference record. Absolutely ridiculous. What’s the point of the quad records if the algorithm ignores them? Way too much put into SOS and margin of victory.

Looks to me like Wazzu/Zona should both be right about 10/11, and 3 seeds.