Plan b on football season
- Thread starter ttowncoug
- Start date
This is what I see happening if things persist through the summer. With that said, I think this crisis is going to end as suddenly as it came about. People will be back to work by May 1st at the latest.
How do you see a February start working in minnesota, Wisconsin, or even pullman?
If that happens - and I think there's approximately zero chance of it - then the return spike in September-october will be even bigger. The cheeto-in-chief's plan of sending everyone e back to work next week is a recipe for disaster - we'll just be starting to learn by then whether "social distancing" has had an effect. People familiar with the 1918 flu epidemic will tell you, the regions that sheltered earliest and those who didn't lift it early, had the lowest death rates. That's not coincidence.
This thing isn't going away with warmer weather. If that was going to be true, it would t be in australia, india, and the Philippines already.
Businesses will be back to operational by May. Why do I say that? Because capitalism drives everything in this Country. What’s going to happen is that some states and some companies will undo the quarantine, which will force the hands of competing companies to keep up.
The death rate in the US is holding steady at around 1.6%. Unless that doubles, which it could, everyone’s stance on this will shift. It’s a death rate of 1.6% where 75% of the victims are over the age of 70. Right or wrong, we have to get back to work.
The death rate in the US is holding steady at around 1.6%. Unless that doubles, which it could, everyone’s stance on this will shift. It’s a death rate of 1.6% where 75% of the victims are over the age of 70. Right or wrong, we have to get back to work.
Seems like an unrealistically optimistic view to me. Businesses may start to reopen but I don’t see people rushing to get on planes, take cruises, crowd into movie theaters or theme parks or even frequent most brick and mortar retail. I also think people will be slow to make big purchases like cars and houses until they have recovered some sense of job security. That takes quite a while. All of that means any economic recovery would be pretty slow and weak.
Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean that sports won’t restart, at least at the pro level - but maybe college also. I suspect MLB will lead the way on any sports restart with probably either no live crowds or carefully screened live crowds.
There are going to be people that get sick and die in the name of the economy.
The way America shopped had already changed. It will be more online and take out than ever. I can see a day when grocery shopping is you placing an order online and picking it up curbside. You will never actually enter the store.
The way America shopped had already changed. It will be more online and take out than ever. I can see a day when grocery shopping is you placing an order online and picking it up curbside. You will never actually enter the store.
There are people who would die (e.g., of suicide or economically-impacted health effects like being unable to afford care), or would suffer drastically, potentially even being changed forever (e.g., due to divorces, home loss, permanent or near-permanent removal from the job force, spousal abuse, drug and alcohol addiction, etc.) if there was a prolonged economic downturn, too.
Not saying we should just turn everything back on, or making any recommendation at all with respect to ending social distancing and shutting down the world ... just saying that--while it's more diffuse and not as clear as someone dying from COVID-19--people would suffer and die if we just shut down the economy for a very long time, too.
Sometimes it's portrayed as "greed" vs. "saving lives" and I think it's a bit more complex. My fear is that with a half-assed and incomplete economic shutdown measure, as we seem doomed to have, we'll pretty much have the worst of both worlds where where will be tons of lost jobs and suffering *and* a failure to prevent the virus from killing and harming a lot of people.
Not saying we should just turn everything back on, or making any recommendation at all with respect to ending social distancing and shutting down the world ... just saying that--while it's more diffuse and not as clear as someone dying from COVID-19--people would suffer and die if we just shut down the economy for a very long time, too.
Sometimes it's portrayed as "greed" vs. "saving lives" and I think it's a bit more complex. My fear is that with a half-assed and incomplete economic shutdown measure, as we seem doomed to have, we'll pretty much have the worst of both worlds where where will be tons of lost jobs and suffering *and* a failure to prevent the virus from killing and harming a lot of people.
The death rate is not 1.6%. That’s a misperception being perpetuated by the media.
It would be accurate to say that the death rate is 1.6% among people who are sick enough to go to a doctor, get a test and get a positive result. But we’ve all seen numerous reports of people who are sick but can’t get tested, and the reports that 80% of the infected have mild symptoms. Either way, the total number of cases is far higher than what’s being reported, so the death rate is far lower.
Actually, we don't know what the death rate is because there are thousands of people in the hospital who haven't recovered yet along with the unknown number of people who have the illness. The actual mortality rate won't be known for months.
That's right. Until there's another month of accelerated testing...we don't know. Just listen to the guy who warned of this 5 years ago.
It won
It allow me to post Bill Gate's comments on CNN's town hall with Sonjay Gupta.
I don’t think so, we forget pretty fast, plus the a decent chunk of the younger generations still think this is all silly. Your next generation of consumers.
Main Street is struggling anyways with Amazon and other online retail. That won’t change but many people will still be going to the store for groceries. There will be a helluva lot more sanitizer and such around though.
It's not lower than 1.5% until they can rap their minds around where and what's going on. Without a great amount of testing (in the millions by now) we don't know.
Bill Gates: State-by-state shutdown won't work - CNN Video
Last edited:
Actually, if it’s true that 80% have mild symptoms, that means that the current 100K positive tests are 20% of infections. Doing the math, that means 500K infections. 2,000 deaths in 500K infections is a death rate of 0.4%. That math is comparable to the math saying the flu has a 0.1% mortality. Both are based on estimates of the actual number of infections.
There's already been 2000 deaths and we haven't hit the apex. The infection rate is much, much higher that we know now because we're a month behind on testing. Just sit back and let the infection rate and the resultant death rate wash over you.
95, a February start refers only to the games being played. So what about preseason practice? Christmas to February? Without our long awaited IPF? Never mind the season's schedule, preparation for it is impractical for us and probably many other northern schools. And attendance? Forget it. For those of us on the soggy side the 300 mile trek over I90 and then Hwy26 has lost its charm. Chaining up to get over and back of Snoqualmie and then dealing with black ice and maybe even more chains on 26? No, thank you. Attendance would drop like the proverbial rock. More than a few of us soggy siders would cancel our season tickets. Some never to return. Feb. start just doesn't work for WSU. If the conference did this then we and maybe Utah and Colorado may well decide to opt out for a season.
About the only speck of silver in this cloud is that the SoCal schools and Arizona schools would have to play on a frozen surface in Pullman. Might be a bit amusing but then the game would be performed in front of a crowd of maybe 12000 or so. A financial disaster for all concerned.
So, if February is out then when? March, April, or May? Doesn't do it for me and does not seem realistic. We would end up with players having already graduated and left school. "Fall" practice in January and/or February? Nope.
I believe it is unrealistic to push the start of the season beyond September. If that cannot be achieved then cancel the season and prepare for the next one. The SEC and other southern schools/conferences may be able to carry on but we need to face the fact that schools in the northern half of the U.S. are effectively done for the year.
No one wants more death. Literally no one. I've read many articles, tweets, posts suggesting such. Political hackery. 425 has a valid point that is often swept under the rug, politically. If people, 6 months down the road, are evicted, many will become homeless. Now mix in our Governor (WA) last night declared that they will not fund 24/7 care for the homeless. Spend the night in a shelter, then get kicked out to the streets to hang with your friends. There is no social distancing, no quarantine. Nothing. Economically, the most vulnerable in our world are at massive risk. There will be a larger percentage of homeless that will die, due to economic reasons. And I say that if we stay the course, right now. The question is, is it worth it?
People go to their political corners on this. Rarely is there a balanced conversation. When will there be more death due to economic factors? When will there be more death WITH the most stringent social distancing, quarantining, etc., economy be damned?
Relax the quarantining? Tighten it? Where is the balance? And what are the parameters to determine those decisions? THIS is the true conversation that needs to happen, in my opinion.
Balance is needed. We can't strangle our economy. In my opinion, that is what we are doing now. But for good reason, I believe. We need to be alive to have an economy. But now, at what point do we find the clutch? Feather it, a bit? How and when? Big, massive decisions. Worthy of true discussion, not unthoughtful, political hackery.
People go to their political corners on this. Rarely is there a balanced conversation. When will there be more death due to economic factors? When will there be more death WITH the most stringent social distancing, quarantining, etc., economy be damned?
Relax the quarantining? Tighten it? Where is the balance? And what are the parameters to determine those decisions? THIS is the true conversation that needs to happen, in my opinion.
Balance is needed. We can't strangle our economy. In my opinion, that is what we are doing now. But for good reason, I believe. We need to be alive to have an economy. But now, at what point do we find the clutch? Feather it, a bit? How and when? Big, massive decisions. Worthy of true discussion, not unthoughtful, political hackery.
What do you think of test and trace Cougman? It seems like SK is running somewhat open. It would take a big force and a lot of work, but if it would allow work to commence and some economic activity it might be worth it. It looks like we’re getting test kits. Enough to do the job? IDK
The corners seem to be open it up, or keep it shut down.
Many are saying Test and Trace is the most thorough and effective way to combat this. But USA is different than other countries . Numerous rights would be challenged, I'd wager.
But again, our state doesn't have enough money to help the homeless, as an example. How would they enforce it? Prior to this pandemic, homelessness was a major issue. Numbers were skyrocketing. If a portion of our population are able to run freely, and by permission of our very liberal governor, I don't think that's anywhere near the scope of possibility, right now. The whole point behind Test and Trace is being 100% complete. They've already thrown that out the window, it seems.
Some people talking about IFR and others CFR here. The fatality rate in the media is CFR, and a biased CFR at that towards severe cases. Deaths from positives that were sick enough to receive treatment even when testing was scarce. The data presented now is so wonky. It’s very possible the west is going to work it’s way out of this while the East and south continue with issues. The prospect of this virus taking hold in the south and south east is very scary considering the health differences. Being back to work in 3-4 weeks is still within range or it could be months. Epidemiologists will figure it out in the next 2 weeks I would bet.
I think how quickly people forget will coincide with the amount of deaths.
If this doesnt get solved quickly, you will see businesses doing take out and curbside only. The same way all bars and restaurants were shit down.
This quarantine won’t last “months.” It can’t. It’s only been a couple of weeks for most people, and the talk about going back has already started to murmur in some circles.
CDC estimates that the 2018-2019 traditional flu season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths.
The cornavirus is an unknown threat that came on suddenly, but as time drags on, people are going lose their fears about this disease as their fears for their jobs increases. By the end of April, there will be a dramatic shift in attitude about this. We have to get back to work.
CDC estimates that the 2018-2019 traditional flu season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths.
The cornavirus is an unknown threat that came on suddenly, but as time drags on, people are going lose their fears about this disease as their fears for their jobs increases. By the end of April, there will be a dramatic shift in attitude about this. We have to get back to work.
The vaccine is working. The worst case scenarios are waaaay overblown, Good news coming in. Dr. Birx is awesome and level-headed
Unless they have found volunteers to be purposely exposed to the virus after half got a vaccine candidate and half didn’t, I don’t see how any vaccine could have been shown to be working already. To the best of my knowledge we haven’t tested vaccines that way for many years.
Some on this board confuse vaccines and anti-viral medications and there have been preliminary test results for some anti-virals. Haven’t heard of any that have unequivocally been shown to be working though.
According to Bill Gates...the shutdown is going to last through the school year or until June.
https://www.geekwire.com/2020/bill-...hut-6-10-weeks-effectively-fight-coronavirus/
https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-covid19-cure-study/
Dr Raoult in France
https://www.independentsentinel.com/hydroxychloroquine-keeps-people-alive-at-the-smith-center/
Dr Smith NJ “The study, which was conducted and led by famed Dr. Philippe Gautreta, and others, in Marseille, France, showed that 100% of patients that received a combination of HCQ and Azithromycin tested negative and were virologically cured within 6 days of treatment.”
https://therightscoop.com/watch-ny-...oronavirus-patients-and-have-had-zero-deaths/
Dr Grace, Lenox Hill Hospital
More...
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archi...cy-of-hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin.php
“Our study concerns 80 patients, without a control group because we offer our protocol to all patients with no contraindication. This is what the Hippocratic Oath that we have taken dictates to us.” Dr Raoult
https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28...xychloroquine-treatment-coronavirus-patients/
It is the politicians, big Pharma and some media who are trying to stop this drug from being used. Big Pharma wants exclusive distribution of whatever they come up with. They don’t want cheap solutions now.
Apparently infectious disease doctors typically use drugs ‘off label’ in early stages of pandemics all the time. Their standard practice is to try things that work until their is reason to stop doing so. To wait for controlled studies (which takes months) is irresponsible. This drug is approved, available and coming to hospitals as we speak.
Last edited:
Ok, everyone already knows about that. It’s a treatment not a vaccine. Large scale tests of that drug combination and others are currently taking place in New York and other places around the country. I’m not sure of all the reasons why but many US experts are skeptical of the French results. US results should be available in a month or two I imagine.
We have results coming in as we speak: it is working at almost 100% with no known side affects. Why not move forward while the controlled studies are done? The FDA hurts more people than it helps.
So? Doctors that are using it believe in it. Why not let them prescribe it? if I was sick (or loved one was) I would absolutely take it and not wait for months for all the controlled studies come in. Who wouldn’t?
i understand his point, and he may be proven correct on this, but we will not be shut down until June. No freaking way. I say the end of April at the latest, with some states resuming life earlier than that.
Last edited:
You’re using the word vaccine incorrectly. A vaccine prevents the disease by providing those receiving the vaccine at least some degree of immunity. Vaccines are the only way the virus will be eradicated.
You’re linking treatments to the disease, which is the medicine you get after you’re sick.
That and the lack of a control group.
Another issue is dosage. I’ve read several articles that indicate that to be effective against corona, the doses are so high that there are significant side effects...which were not discussed in either the Chinese or French studies.
Just so everyone is on the same page....
Yes, a vaccine is what Gib noted above. And those are virus-specific and take time to develop, even if test conditions are relaxed.
A treatment is not a bad thing; if we had something that worked for those with the worst symptoms, it is almost as good as having a vaccine. It won't eradicate the disease, as Gib correctly notes. But it will allow the disease to run its course until a sufficient number have achieved at least temporary immunity, while minimizing deaths. A vaccine will be needed to end this regardless, but the gun is no longer at our head to do so if we have an effective treatment. And because the medical community is trying a boatload of stuff developed for other diseases, if we roll the dice lucky we might find something that was not specific to this virus, but which works. Or at least mitigates the danger to some degree. Even if there is some risk of collateral damage to other organs...there will be times when that risk is worthwhile. Unfortunately, most treatments are most effective the earlier they are used. Which means if you wait until the last minute, even something that is effective if used in time may not work. Understanding the trade-offs and risks is critical to using any treatment prior to the last minute, "Hail Mary" moment. And it takes some time to get that info, even if some anecdotal successes are suspected.
Yes, a vaccine is what Gib noted above. And those are virus-specific and take time to develop, even if test conditions are relaxed.
A treatment is not a bad thing; if we had something that worked for those with the worst symptoms, it is almost as good as having a vaccine. It won't eradicate the disease, as Gib correctly notes. But it will allow the disease to run its course until a sufficient number have achieved at least temporary immunity, while minimizing deaths. A vaccine will be needed to end this regardless, but the gun is no longer at our head to do so if we have an effective treatment. And because the medical community is trying a boatload of stuff developed for other diseases, if we roll the dice lucky we might find something that was not specific to this virus, but which works. Or at least mitigates the danger to some degree. Even if there is some risk of collateral damage to other organs...there will be times when that risk is worthwhile. Unfortunately, most treatments are most effective the earlier they are used. Which means if you wait until the last minute, even something that is effective if used in time may not work. Understanding the trade-offs and risks is critical to using any treatment prior to the last minute, "Hail Mary" moment. And it takes some time to get that info, even if some anecdotal successes are suspected.
Yes, control groups. Also there's the ethical issue that this specific drug that has proven beneficial to people with Lupus and sever arthritis..."may be" being diverted into proving certain non-scientists correct based on the anecdotal evidence and /or being bought up by those who have heard someone claim this to be a "game changer". Thank you Sir...may we have another. The supply of these drugs may be in short supply as a result.
Just a handful of states are responsible for more than half of our national GDP. Unfortunately, right now those states appear to be among the hardest hit. California, Texas, New York and Florida alone account for 40% of GDP. Throw in Washington and Illinois and you are pushing 50%. So the economy isn’t going to come back until those states reach a peak in cases and start to show a decline in the rate of infection. Then they may be able to reopen while carefully monitoring for a second wave. I don’t see that happening by the end of April but hope to be proven wrong.
The only thing that could prove you wrong is the accelerated number of tests being done into the millions because not even healthcare workers and front line responders are being tested in high numbers at the moment. As Gates said...testing is not being prioritized at the moment. During the month of February...no planning was going on.
