One of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic is that trends that were already in place have dramatically accelerated. Especially in business, we have seen many well-known businesses that were slowly fading, like Brooks Brothers, JC Penney, and Hertz suddenly declare bankruptcy, and whole industries like movie theaters and shopping malls that were already in decline are unlikely to ever recover. Conversely, companies like Amazon and Netflix that were slowly growing have exploded.
The exact same thing is happening in college football. Basically football in the West and Midwest were on a decades-long decline. Each year it seems like the realistic chances of a PAC12 team making the playoff fades earlier in the season. In 6 years we have been included twice and won just one game, which was in 2014-15. Remember the PAC12 Network clinging to hope in November that Utah might still have a chance of sneaking in, while at the same every fan thinking how they would be utterly destroyed by a Clemson or Alabama. Except for Ohio State and the always-overrated Notre Dame, the same trend has been in place in the Midwest. Because of CTE (and video games), high school football in the West and Midwest is in a steady decline. Just like college football in the nation’s most populous region, the Northeast, has been irrelevant for 40 years.
With COVID-19, this trend goes into overdrive. Cancelling the fall season is resulting in transfers and star players opting out, but the bigger effect will be recruiting. High school players from the north and west are transferring down to high schools in the southeast, and recruits are being drawn to conferences that seem more likely to keep playing. Even if they all end up canceling this fall, the wheels are moving faster. Again, this trend has been present for a long, long time. But when the time comes that college football is fully resumed, I expect the playoff to consistently feature 3 SEC teams, with an ACC team or a Ohio State or an Oklahoma fighting for that last spot. USC will continue to get ranked in the bottom of the top-25 in the preseason poll, but quickly fall out, just like Nebraska every year. I think we will remain a “P5” conference, because it will serve their purpose to create the illusion of a “national” championship, but in reality, it will be a regional sport, where all of the contenders are within 5 or 6 states. Its actually what happens to many sports- water polo is pretty much just California, ditto beach volleyball, wrestling is mainly in the mid-west, lacrosse in the northeast. Its just shocking how quickly this is going to go down.
The exact same thing is happening in college football. Basically football in the West and Midwest were on a decades-long decline. Each year it seems like the realistic chances of a PAC12 team making the playoff fades earlier in the season. In 6 years we have been included twice and won just one game, which was in 2014-15. Remember the PAC12 Network clinging to hope in November that Utah might still have a chance of sneaking in, while at the same every fan thinking how they would be utterly destroyed by a Clemson or Alabama. Except for Ohio State and the always-overrated Notre Dame, the same trend has been in place in the Midwest. Because of CTE (and video games), high school football in the West and Midwest is in a steady decline. Just like college football in the nation’s most populous region, the Northeast, has been irrelevant for 40 years.
With COVID-19, this trend goes into overdrive. Cancelling the fall season is resulting in transfers and star players opting out, but the bigger effect will be recruiting. High school players from the north and west are transferring down to high schools in the southeast, and recruits are being drawn to conferences that seem more likely to keep playing. Even if they all end up canceling this fall, the wheels are moving faster. Again, this trend has been present for a long, long time. But when the time comes that college football is fully resumed, I expect the playoff to consistently feature 3 SEC teams, with an ACC team or a Ohio State or an Oklahoma fighting for that last spot. USC will continue to get ranked in the bottom of the top-25 in the preseason poll, but quickly fall out, just like Nebraska every year. I think we will remain a “P5” conference, because it will serve their purpose to create the illusion of a “national” championship, but in reality, it will be a regional sport, where all of the contenders are within 5 or 6 states. Its actually what happens to many sports- water polo is pretty much just California, ditto beach volleyball, wrestling is mainly in the mid-west, lacrosse in the northeast. Its just shocking how quickly this is going to go down.
