Spring 2021 football officially on the table...
- Thread starter ttowncoug
- Start date
Here’s reality: football cannot be played this fall, at least not nationwide.
The first case in Washington was in mid-January. Our peak is projected to be this week, followed by a 4-6 week slowdown back to a baseline. That puts us around the first of June before the curve is returning to zero. Add to that a few more weeks of watching closely to make sure it doesn’t spike again...call it first of July before we’re tentatively “normal.”
Most of the Midwest only started seeing cases in mid to late March. Giving them a similar timeline to ours, they’re into early-mid September before they’re reaching stability.
Add in the concern over whether this will be seasonal, and sending thousands of people moving into concentrated areas all over the country adds up to a bad idea. That’s in addition to the fact that many schools won’t be out of the woods before fall camp is scheduled to start.
Possible that, with the coastal examples of what works/doesn’t work, the interior could reduce and shorten impacts, or that they/we could do some intensive monitoring of teams to allow fall practice (this assumes that there’s eventually the slightest grain of truth to “anyone who wants a test can get one”). But under conditions currently foreseeable....ain’t happening.
The first case in Washington was in mid-January. Our peak is projected to be this week, followed by a 4-6 week slowdown back to a baseline. That puts us around the first of June before the curve is returning to zero. Add to that a few more weeks of watching closely to make sure it doesn’t spike again...call it first of July before we’re tentatively “normal.”
Most of the Midwest only started seeing cases in mid to late March. Giving them a similar timeline to ours, they’re into early-mid September before they’re reaching stability.
Add in the concern over whether this will be seasonal, and sending thousands of people moving into concentrated areas all over the country adds up to a bad idea. That’s in addition to the fact that many schools won’t be out of the woods before fall camp is scheduled to start.
Possible that, with the coastal examples of what works/doesn’t work, the interior could reduce and shorten impacts, or that they/we could do some intensive monitoring of teams to allow fall practice (this assumes that there’s eventually the slightest grain of truth to “anyone who wants a test can get one”). But under conditions currently foreseeable....ain’t happening.
Other parts of the country will hit their peak sooner and see a fall off faster than Washington because they got to see what happened in the Northwest.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
If you believe the above site, things will have settled down by June 1st across the country. The best news about that site is that they had been projecting 81,000 deaths and they had adjusted their estimate to 93,000 deaths last week based on how badly things were going. They have revised it back down to roughly 82,000 deaths.
The bad news is that until a vaccine is developed......a new wave is inevitable this fall/winter.
That return to baseline depends on humans being bros, which most likely won't happen.
As soon as the stay home order is lifted, people will be travelling to hot spots, flying, doing the same old crap and I guarantee that somewhere there is going to be a second wave, if not all the west coast areas.
At some point there's going to have to be a realization that us and the world were woefully prepared (finger point if you want... not that that ever helped anyone) and there is going to be a death count that people will say was avoidable, but I'm not sure that is the case. I think in some places it could have been mitigated slightly (Italy), but there's a reason why these things get out of control to begin with - people are people and are mostly dumb. Not to go there again, but eating bats and other animals that are known vectors of disease IS DUMB. Wet markets are dumb. Not judging, but if a country is going to allow their citizens to gamble with infectious disease, the world police needs to step up and say "thanks but no thanks", but I digress ( and dream.)
Whoa... that went sideways. Sorry, been cooped up for a month now. My ramblings are taking a turn... you know, you can't eat your cake and have it too...
These projections are probably as good as can be found but they do have huge uncertainty bands. It does look promising for a slow reopening of the economy beginning in late June or early July.
It’s not as promising for fall football season though. The following from their FAQ page indicates to me that packing people into stadiums in the fall is a recipe for disaster.
“Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.”
Playing football in empty stadiums would still be on the table, I think. Test the coaches, athletes, refs, trainers, etc. on periodic basis. The Abbott Labs 5-15 minute test machines are supposed to be hitting the hospitals (or wherever they're supposed to go) today. At least that's what I heard on the news this morning.
Yeah, but the machines that go with the tests aren’t being delivered.
Doesn’t matter anyway. Anyone who wants to be tested can get tested, remember?
I don't see spring football as viable. College football runs into a situation where it's competing against March madness, it messes up neutral site scheduling, and bowl games (a huge money maker) would be a scheduling nightmare. I would think we see a canceled season before we see spring football.
I don't think college athletic departments can afford the revenue hit from a cancellation of the season. Missing spring sports doesn't hurt they only lose money, but football and men's basketball pay the bills for most schools. This consideration will be quite compelling for AD's to find a way to get sports on the screen. Empty stadiums are an obvious solution.
South Korea is currently having a baseball season so there is a way to get this done. Football is more tricky, but doable. Same for basketball.
I don't think college athletic departments can afford the revenue hit from a cancellation of the season. Missing spring sports doesn't hurt they only lose money, but football and men's basketball pay the bills for most schools. This consideration will be quite compelling for AD's to find a way to get sports on the screen. Empty stadiums are an obvious solution.
South Korea is currently having a baseball season so there is a way to get this done. Football is more tricky, but doable. Same for basketball.
I'd be in favor of a shortened or altered fall season for 2020, but really don't like the idea of pushing this fall's season to next spring and then turning right around and resuming a (semi) normal season of football in 2021. I understand the financial hit associated with a missed season, but if the alternative is something that equates to year-round football in 2021 I think that's a bad idea. We'd be looking at something pretty close to 12 straight months of football for the players -- that's too much wear and tear on the body (at any level).
This is pretty quickly off the cuff, but...
9 game season, starting Oct 1. All conference games - the teams who usually only play 8 conference games should be easily able to pick 1 up. No bye weeks, play straight through December 5. No conference championships.
No way to fill all of the bowl slots, so seems like a good time to set up a 16 team playoff. That could also be completed within the typical timeline, with the season ending mid January.
This I think is the most likely scenario. As weird as it would be to watch football in empty stadiums people will still watch. And TV revenue is huge. They may delay the season a bit to give the teams time to prep, but I’m guessing game on with no fans.
While I love the idea of a 16 team playoff it took them a decade to figure out a 4 team format. A bunch of overpaid entitled lazy asshats like Larry Scott wouldn’t be able to pull this feat off in a million years.
But the TV execs that are actually pulling the strings could...and force-feed it to the conferences, now that almost every school is dependent on the TV money.
How about a really crazy thought? Stadiums are only allowed to sell enough tickets to maintain 6' spacing between each person. People have to enter a lottery to see if they get to attend the games in person.
Wouldn’t be able to enforce it. Stadiums are to big and have so many external gathering places. Bathrooms. Concessions. Etc.
Also very hard to enforce. Some people will tear off their mask as soon as they pass through the entrance. I think the best bet for a live gate at sporting events is the development of an antibody test that would show if you have already had the disease and therefore have some immunity. If you can show evidence of that, you would be allowed in the stadium. Might not be very large crowds at first though.
Alternatively, allow fans to bring in enough booze to make their blood alcohol level too inhospitable for the virus to survive
Hmmm, a return to the 60s and early 70s on the student side. Interesting idea.
I'm not a doctor, but I watched a lot of Emergency and Scrubs and whatnot back in the day...I'm telling you, it'll work.
A good set of discussions with doctors and economists here:
https://www.dailywire.com/episode/ep-89-coronavirus-pandemic-doctor-vs-economist
Dr. Bob Wachter, Professor and Chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco
Dr. Scott Atlas of the Stanford University Hoover Institution
Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor to the financial services company, Allianz
They discuss models used by governments determining whether to shut down the economy, the question of balancing economics and public health, when we can finally get back to normal, and much more.
Yes, yes, I know it's the ultra-hardcore-right-wing Ben Shapiro. But these conversations have real questions and good answers.
https://www.dailywire.com/episode/ep-89-coronavirus-pandemic-doctor-vs-economist
Dr. Bob Wachter, Professor and Chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco
Dr. Scott Atlas of the Stanford University Hoover Institution
Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor to the financial services company, Allianz
They discuss models used by governments determining whether to shut down the economy, the question of balancing economics and public health, when we can finally get back to normal, and much more.
Yes, yes, I know it's the ultra-hardcore-right-wing Ben Shapiro. But these conversations have real questions and good answers.
There will certainly be a dramatic reduction in non-business travel across international borders but I don't believe we could completely close our borders without major disruptions to our food supply and manufacturing capabilities. But, even assuming we could, its too late. That horse left the barn months ago. We will have reservoirs of virus within our borders for the foreseeable future.
Cohen said that a plan is in place for Coach Leach to participate in additional listening sessions with student, alumni, and community groups and to provide the coach with opportunities to expand his cultural awareness of Mississippi. One of those opportunities will include a guided visit to the “Two Museums” – the Museum of Mississippi History and the Mississippi Civil Rights Museum – in Jackson as soon as restrictions from the current public health crisis will allow.
In absence of knowing what it would cost to part ways, I'd say it's more likely that Leach will leave MSU than MSU firing him.
I have a feeling Leach has an issue with alcohol and twitter. His apology showed neither remorse or understanding for the scenario in which he lives and works.
I also have a feeling he finishes his career at a directional school.
It’s not surprising Leach is about as unapologetic as they come. I tend to agree he probably should put his phone away when he decides to tap the bottle. His tweet about Romney a while back at 3 in the morning was not a good look.
I think his head is a lot closer to being in Key West than he let’s on. I’d be shocked if he made it the length of his contract.
I don't believe that Leach will finish his career at a directional school.....but this has not been a good start at Miss. State. If things don't go well, he's going to take the money and run back to Key West and write books. If things go well and they win a lot of games....nobody will care about the noose joke.
He coaches like a man crossing the finish line... not lining up in the starting blocks....
Won’t listen. Won’t change. Won’t win shit.
Anyone know if Leach is buddies with Gundy? Those two seem to have similar awkward takes.
It's been made clear time and time again that nobody really cares about the people in the stadiums. No school is going to put that much effort into getting butts in seats.
