Agree all around. Here is the link to the ESPN projections:
LINK
The records I listed above are weighted by ESPN to factor in losses that average out over the course of a season. When you look at each team in depth, you get the following records based on game by game predictions:
North
Stanford: 11-1 (8-1)
UW: 11-1 (8-1)
Oregon: 9-3 (6-3)
WSU: 8-4 (5-4)
OSU: 4-8 (2-7)
Cal: 2-10 (1-8)
South
USC: 11-1 (9-0) (losing to ND!)
UCLA: 9-3 (6-3)
ASU: 5-7 (3-6)
CU: 5-7 (2-7)
Arizona: 5-7 (2-7)
Utah: 4-8 (2-7)
FPI says that Stanford beats UW at home. The averages shown in my earlier post expect Stanford to have a lot more close games than UW and that the odds are that they'll lose a couple of them. I'm not drinking the Stanford kool-aid this year. I believe that they are an 8-4 type team this year. I agree that USC is the definite favorite. I'm kind of wondering if UCLA at 7-5 (5-4) would keep Mora on-board or if they would dump him.
I agree, for the most part. UW is the team to beat in the North, USC in the south...and both of them have favorable schedules so it'll be tough to knock either of them down unless they underperform. I'd like to say that UW is more likely to do so, based on their lack of apparent answers for their graduation/draft losses, but their schedule stacks up so well that I think they've got a lot of room for error. USC is similar, but they play a far tougher non-conference schedule than the Huskies, including a trip to Notre Dame.
I don't see Stanford at 11-1. They were a significantly weaker team without McCaffrey last year, and they won't have him at all now. They have too many question marks to see them as a favorite. They have to travel to some tough opponents, so looking at their schedule I see at least 4 games that I'd count as likely losses. If they don't get solid QB play, that number goes up quickly.
I'm not so sure about Utah at 4-8. Willingham does a good job of getting his team prepared, and finds ways to claw out wins when on paper they shouldn't. Not sure I see much better than 7-5, but not worse than 4-8. Their schedule might work against them though, they've got a reasonable non-conference schedule, and then they travel to USC, Oregon, and UW. They might need some good bounces to get bowl eligible.
I think both RichRod and Mora are in trouble, especially RichRod. There's no way to be nice about it - Arizona sucked last year. Bad - as in "Idaho probably could have beat them" bad. I don't see that they've picked up a messiah that's going to turn them around - in fact, I'm not even sure that you can
see hope from where they are. They should go 2-1 in non-conference, but after that they have to hope that things break their way, and that Utah, Colorado, and UCLA don't put the pieces together until the second half. UA travels for 4 of their last 6 - including trips to USC, Oregon, and ASU - so they probably need to start 5-1 to have a shot at a bowl. I don't see that happening. I think it's more realistic that we could knock them out of bowl contention when we visit before Halloween, and the Wildcats have an interim coach in November.
As for UCLA, I think it's amazing how they make such a science out of underperforming. It's been almost 20 years since Leon Bender made his infamous comment about them...and it's still true. On paper, they really should be able to contend, and their game against USC
could be for the lead in the South. But UCLA is the opposite of Utah. While the Utes, on paper, should rarely be as good as they are, the Bruins are
never as good as they look on paper. That makes them very hard to project. I could see them basically coasting to a 4-2 or 5-1 start (which isn't that great, considering they have gimme games against Hawaii, Memphis, and Arizona)...but then I can see them tanking the back half and barely getting bowl eligible (or not - I don't think 0-6 is totally out of the question). To be fair, their second half is tough - trips to UW, Utah, and USC, plus Oregon, ASU, and Cal.
Here's another one - I don't think Todd Graham is safe at ASU. Even in his 10-win seasons, they performed below expectations, and his last two years have been bad. They've got a lot of question marks this year, and what could be a tough schedule. I could see them going 0-8 through the middle of it, and he won't survive that. They do get the toughest opponents - UW and USC - at home, but I don't think ASU has the horses to compete with either of them on any field. They get Oregon and Colorado at home too, but on paper they both look better than the devils too. Mix in trips to Stanford, Utah, and UCLA, and I think the Duel in the Desert might just turn out to be the fight for the cellar.