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Strategic thinking RE: Pac-10/12 future alignment

I think I want to move to Costa Rica with spongebob

Happy Season 9 GIF by The Office
 
This trend is happening everywhere.

Europe is nearing the abolishment of some of the most longstanding professional sports leagues in the world with the formation of a super league.

European Super League
 
Good point.

Thank Goodness the PAC 12 commissioner is visiting SMU and PERSONALLY negotiating SMU joining the PAC 12, and not listening to all the DO NOTHINGS THAT HAVE PUT PAC 12 INTO THIS PREDICAMENT to begin with by DOING NOTHING, and NOT adding Texas Tech, and not adding Ok State, and not adding TCU, and not adding Houston, when had chance, etc, etc.
Houston /SMU would have been great gets, had Scott had the balls to get them.
 
I've been grudgingly on board with SDSU and UNLV as the best of the bad options. Now that SMU is firmly in the mix, I've re-evaluated.

I don't really like the idea, but if it's SDSU and SMU, I think we need 2 more.

Pulling SMU is obviously raiding Big 12 territory, and if we leave the door open they'll raid right back. The obvious play is to poach the Arizona schools, which will hurt us a lot more than us grabbing SMU hurts them. Even if they don't get ASU/UA, the door is open to UNLV and Fresno. So we have to grab one of them...and I'd grab UNLV first for the money, the destination, and the market.

With SDSU, SMU, and UNLV in the fold, I think we look for another team in the southern Mountain/Central time zone to pair with SMU.

I think in this model, I make a run at the more desirable Big 12 teams - Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas, Texas Tech, Houston - and maybe even Arkansas and Nebraska. None of those conversations will take long, but I try anyway. Then I call Colorado State and try to pull them in. There are a handful I'd consider behind them, but I think they're the next best option. Fresno remains viable as a fallback, but I like the idea of firming up the inland toehold, rather than leaving SMU as the isolated outpost.
No team is EVER leaving the Big 10. EVER. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
 
Your figures are mistaken. If Arizona joins the Big 12, that will increase the Big 12 media dollars. You are counting on Arizona not adding one penny to the pot. How much is the question. Do they pay for themselves and even add to each schools payout like BYU? I don't think they do, but it would be close to the same payout to each Big 12 school if they joined. ASU, Colorado...not so sure. Not a great deal of value there. BYU was the catch.
Color me unconvinced.

Arizona doesn't deliver a major market, and they draw squat. Half a million viewers per game last season. They'd be dead last in the current Big 12, and they only outdraw one of the incoming members. Houston only drew a quarter million, but they're at least inside of a major market and they're coming up from G5, so their ceiling is probably higher.

ASU has better market proximity, but they draw even less than UA, and I question how much interest there is to be had in greater Phoenix considering their demographics. ASU was dead last in Pac-12 viewership this year, even behind Colorado. Them and the Buffs may draw better if they were better teams, but considering the number of people in their markets they should have better numbers just from the people who forget to change the channel from the lead-in.

The Arizona schools also have the disadvantage of both being proximate to the same metro area, which means splitting the pie 2 more ways based on a single market...and one that hasn't shown a high degree of interest.

Compared to the "new" Big 12, WSU draws well enough to be #6. BYU's supposed national appeal only puts them slightly ahead of us
 
No team is EVER leaving the Big 10. EVER. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I'm 99.99% sure that's correct. But if the option is never explored, it definitely won't happen.

Maybe we catch them on the right day, when they're feeling disillusioned about how they're no longer relevant and can't even qualify for a bowl game...and they've all started hating money.
 
Color me unconvinced.

Arizona doesn't deliver a major market, and they draw squat. Half a million viewers per game last season. They'd be dead last in the current Big 12, and they only outdraw one of the incoming members. Houston only drew a quarter million, but they're at least inside of a major market and they're coming up from G5, so their ceiling is probably higher.

ASU has better market proximity, but they draw even less than UA, and I question how much interest there is to be had in greater Phoenix considering their demographics. ASU was dead last in Pac-12 viewership this year, even behind Colorado. Them and the Buffs may draw better if they were better teams, but considering the number of people in their markets they should have better numbers just from the people who forget to change the channel from the lead-in.

The Arizona schools also have the disadvantage of both being proximate to the same metro area, which means splitting the pie 2 more ways based on a single market...and one that hasn't shown a high degree of interest.

Compared to the "new" Big 12, WSU draws well enough to be #6. BYU's supposed national appeal only puts them slightly ahead of us
Hey 95 - can you point us to where you get these stats?

I could only come up with the link below, which is a week by week listing. It is kind of interesting, while the Cougs don't even show up in some weeks, they had some pretty big draws in a few of them. Look to see who they outdrew against other matchups. Even in the bowl game, outdrawing Miss. State vs Illinois. Week 13 (Apple Cup) is pretty impressive

 
No team is EVER leaving the Big 10. EVER. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Teams will absolutely leave when the money is right. Eventually the top tier programs from the B10 and SEC will merge, and leave behind the leaches that are Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, etc.
 
Color me unconvinced.

Arizona doesn't deliver a major market, and they draw squat. Half a million viewers per game last season. They'd be dead last in the current Big 12, and they only outdraw one of the incoming members. Houston only drew a quarter million, but they're at least inside of a major market and they're coming up from G5, so their ceiling is probably higher.

ASU has better market proximity, but they draw even less than UA, and I question how much interest there is to be had in greater Phoenix considering their demographics. ASU was dead last in Pac-12 viewership this year, even behind Colorado. Them and the Buffs may draw better if they were better teams, but considering the number of people in their markets they should have better numbers just from the people who forget to change the channel from the lead-in.

The Arizona schools also have the disadvantage of both being proximate to the same metro area, which means splitting the pie 2 more ways based on a single market...and one that hasn't shown a high degree of interest.

Compared to the "new" Big 12, WSU draws well enough to be #6. BYU's supposed national appeal only puts them slightly ahead of us
Arizona does not look as good as I had imagined. Maybe the Big 12 would not take them if those are the numbers. All depends on how ESPN values them. I suppose that, even if they cost the current members money, they may take them because they are a flagship school with an excellent BB tradition. The optics, as they say, are good. Will be interesting.
 
Teams will absolutely leave when the money is right. Eventually the top tier programs from the B10 and SEC will merge, and leave behind the leaches that are Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, etc.
There is no bigger $ than the Big Ten. So no one is ever leaving it, unless Northwestern gets kicked out!
 
I'm 99.99% sure that's correct. But if the option is never explored, it definitely won't happen.

Maybe we catch them on the right day, when they're feeling disillusioned about how they're no longer relevant and can't even qualify for a bowl game...and they've all started hating money.
Laughing out loud, they last line was a good one, for sure!
 
My paranoia with Arizona is in the fact that they are a basketball school and even without Tx and Ok, the BIG12 plus Arizona and Gonzaga (reports are they are very intersted in the Big12 with mutual interest) would be a much better basketball conference then the new PAC. Football in the PAC is going to be stronger but that’s only as long as Oregon and uw stay put. Does Lloyd have the power to drive something like that with his buddy Few?
 
I'm 99.99% sure that's correct. But if the option is never explored, it definitely won't happen.

Maybe we catch them on the right day, when they're feeling disillusioned about how they're no longer relevant and can't even qualify for a bowl game...and they've all started hating money.
Rebound relationships don't seem to last. Just sayin.
 
This trend is happening everywhere.

Europe is nearing the abolishment of some of the most longstanding professional sports leagues in the world with the formation of a super league.

European Super League
Nah.

Everyone wants a chunk of the EPL money train. Ain't happenin'. Fans already pushed back on a more permanent, inclusive Super League. Fans would absolutely go bonkers against their clubs for joining this.
 
While I would love to see Gonzaga join the P12 as a basketball school, there is a side of me that would also like to see them make the mistake of joining the B12 conference.

The thought of them playing in a league where their closest conference rivals (outside of BYU) are in Iowa, Kansas, and Oklahoma makes me chuckle. Then there's the trips to West Virginia, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Houston.

That sounds awful, and just imagine how the other programs in the conference are going to feel about making trips to Spokane. Central Florida to Spokane....in February....for (1) basketball game. Now there's a great student/athlete decision.

I'm not saying that it can't or won't work, but let's not act like it's a foregone conclusion that the Zags will be able to maintain their current level of performance after Mark Few retires. What happens if he hangs it up in 5 years and the Zags become just another mid-major?
 
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