I got this article for free, hopefully you can, too. It's at the Spokesman-Review & dated March 8th. Jon Wilner argues for Texas State over UNLV for the PAC-12 expansion.
Pac-12 expansion options: Texas State, not UNLV, should be the top target because membership is about the future, not the present
I'll make it easier on everyone...
Why Texas State, not UNLV, should be top target for Pac-12 expansion
Jon Wilner
March 10, 2025 at 6:00 am Updated March 10, 2025 at 6:00 am
The rebuilt Pac-12 is fast approaching the sweet spot for a media rights agreement. Perhaps by the end of the month, but likely by the close of April, according to sources, the conference should secure a deal for the next era.
At that point, the focus will shift back to where it began in September — back to the membership issue and finding the eighth all-sports member.
Why not the other way around? Why not expand first, then find a media deal? Because nowhere in the full sweep of possibilities is there a school, or collection of schools, that will materially alter the rebuilt conference’s media value for 2026 and beyond.
At least, that’s the case for
this contract, according to multiple industry sources.
But what about the next deal?
This is a multi-dimensional calculation, folks. The Pac-12 is seeking security for the present, but it needs chips for the future.
UNLV makes sense because of geography — because it’s
right there — but the Rebels are not the best bet for longer-haul growth.
UNLV is the move for 2025.
Texas State is the play for 2030.
Granted, we have no idea how the landscape will look in five or six years, when the Pac-12 begins to negotiate its next media deal.
There might not be a Pac-12.
There might not be a Power Four.
Or perhaps several of the departed schools
will return to a regional conference on the West Coast.
The list of possibilities is both endless and, at some level, unknowable.
But combine
the ACC’s settlement with Florida State and Clemson, the economic pressures created by revenue sharing and the expiration of several critical media contracts, including the Big Ten (2030) and the College Football Playoff (2032), and there’s a good chance
college sports will look completely different in six or eight years.
The Pac-12 should act accordingly. Strategic decisions in the spring of 2025 must be made with the fall of 2030 in mind, with building the strongest, most valuable football product possible.
From that standpoint, Texas State is the easy call as the eighth full-time member.
Adding the Las Vegas metropolitan area could provide a modest increase in value over time. (By value, we mean on the broadest scale possible, not just media dollars.) It’s already well within the rebuilt Pac-12’s footprint, which stretches from San Diego to Pullman to Fort Collins.
Just because UNLV is the best remaining option in the West doesn’t mean the Rebels are the best option for the Pac-12.
The American Athletic Conference schools are enticing targets, as well, whether the focus is just Memphis or the combination of Memphis, South Florida and Tulane. But unless the Pac-12’s media deal is worth substantially more than most industry experts forecast ù the expected range is $8 million to $10 million per school per year, according to sources — there will be little financial incentive for the AAC schools to make the leap.
Texas State’s economics are vastly more manageable. It would cost far less to lure the Bobcats, who compete in the Sun Belt and aspire to a higher tier. In fact, the Pac-12 could offer membership at a reduced revenue share, thus creating more cash for the seven football schools (and Gonzaga) that are committed for 2026.
Notable competitive fact: Texas State has posted as many winning seasons (three) since moving to the FBS level in 2012 as the Rebels have produced since 2000.
Unlike UNLV, the Bobcats would greatly expand the Pac-12’s media footprint, adding a campus in the Central Time Zone to create more broadcast windows.
And not just anywhere in the Central Time Zone — in Texas.
Booming Texas.
Talent-laden Texas.
Oil-rich Texas.
Football-crazed Texas.
Specifically, the Bobcats are located in San Marcos, halfway between Austin and San Antonio on the I-35 corridor that’s home to 4.5 million people.
If the essence of your strategy is acquiring chips for 2030 — and if that’s not the case with the Pac-12, something is very wrong — then having a campus in Texas beats having a campus in Nevada. And it’s not close.
(UNLV recently touted its student enrollment growth, which increased an impressive 2% year-over-year, based on spring data. Texas State’s enrollment in the same span grew by 5.9%.)
The Hotline made essentially the same point about another Texas school two years ago, when the legacy version of the Pac-12 was seeking new members and a media deal.
In an examination of SMU’s potential, we wrote:
“The conference must consider SMU’s value when the next media rights cycle comes to an end (in the late 2020s or early 2030s), and it starts the negotiating process all over again.”
Admittedly, SMU and Texas State are more different from they are alike. But they are closer to each other in long-haul potential than either is to the options available to the Pac-12 this spring.
Yes, the travel would be suboptimal — not for the football programs, which charter flights, but for the Olympic sports, which typically fly commercial.
Pac-12 teams competing in San Marcos would fly into Austin, 35 miles away. If the conference creates travel partners, the closest campus would be Colorado State. From Fort Collins, the trip entails a one-hour bus ride to Denver International, a two-hour flight to Austin and a 30-minute drive to San Marcos.
(In the Big Ten, that’s amateur hour.)
The conference could pursue a second Texas school to pair with the Bobcats and reduce travel demands. UTSA and North Texas come immediately to mind, particularly given the AAC’s media rights deal allocates smaller shares to its newer members than to the likes of Memphis and Tulane.
All that said, let’s be clear: The Rebels would not be a bad addition to the rebuilt Pac-12, although there are significant complications at this point with the school’s contractual commitment to the Mountain West and
a series of lawsuits playing out.
UNLV has potential; Las Vegas has value; and focusing on a regional membership strategy has merit.
But the Rebels should not be the Pac-12’s top target.
Texas State is the easy call.
Follow the (oil) money, acquire the chip and start preparing for 2030.
Jon Wilner
