The key stats

[Stretch 74]

I like to look at the stats for the games with intent to try and identify the real key stats that drive the outcome of the games. Yards per pass or run, turnovers, penalties, etc. It seemed to me that there has developed a pattern through the past 4 games, so I went back to look at it and I think I have confirmed my suspicions that the Cougs have been getting pummeled on plays that determine changes of possession. Not just turnovers, but plays on third and fourth down, where you are giving the ball away if you don't convert the first down play. No surprise to anyone here, I suppose, but we are getting beat by both offense and defense in these categories.

Here is the data, with WSU listed first:
UCLA- Third down conversions 2/13 vs 8/25; fourth down conversions 0/1 vs 3/3; turnovers created 2 vs 4
Arizona- Third down conversions 4/11 vs 10/17; fourth down conversions 0/3 vs 1/1; turnovers created 0 vs 3
Oregon- Third down conversions 4/14 vs 5/10; fourth down conversions 1/4 vs 0/0; turnovers created 0 vs 0
ASU- Third down conversions 3/12 vs 8/11; fourth down conversions 2/3 vs 0/0; turnovers created 0 vs 0

Bottom lines:
Third down conversions we lose 13/50=26% vs 31/63=49%. Getting ass kicked here.
Fourth down conversions we lose 3/11=27% vs 4/4=100% Small sample size, but getting drilled here also.
Turnovers we are losing at 2 vs 7, and the worst part of it is that we haven't created a single turnover in the past three games. UGH!

I remember thinking earlier in the season how much improved the downfield coverage by the DB's seemed to be from the past couple years, guys being tighter and making more plays. I no longer think that.

 

[Coug90]

I like to look at the stats for the games with intent to try and identify the real key stats that drive the outcome of the games. Yards per pass or run, turnovers, penalties, etc. It seemed to me that there has developed a pattern through the past 4 games, so I went back to look at it and I think I have confirmed my suspicions that the Cougs have been getting pummeled on plays that determine changes of possession. Not just turnovers, but plays on third and fourth down, where you are giving the ball away if you don't convert the first down play. No surprise to anyone here, I suppose, but we are getting beat by both offense and defense in these categories.

Here is the data, with WSU listed first:
UCLA- Third down conversions 2/13 vs 8/25; fourth down conversions 0/1 vs 3/3; turnovers created 2 vs 4
Arizona- Third down conversions 4/11 vs 10/17; fourth down conversions 0/3 vs 1/1; turnovers created 0 vs 3
Oregon- Third down conversions 4/14 vs 5/10; fourth down conversions 1/4 vs 0/0; turnovers created 0 vs 0
ASU- Third down conversions 3/12 vs 8/11; fourth down conversions 2/3 vs 0/0; turnovers created 0 vs 0

Bottom lines:
Third down conversions we lose 13/50=26% vs 31/63=49%. Getting ass kicked here.
Fourth down conversions we lose 3/11=27% vs 4/4=100% Small sample size, but getting drilled here also.
Turnovers we are losing at 2 vs 7, and the worst part of it is that we haven't created a single turnover in the past three games. UGH!

I remember thinking earlier in the season how much improved the downfield coverage by the DB's seemed to be from the past couple years, guys being tighter and making more plays. I no longer think that.

Our defenses have to create turnovers. Seems like a distant memory but that’s how Grinch had success and that’s how Dickert had success. Turnovers, pressuring the QB and getting other teams behind the sticks so they can’t line up and blast it at us with bigger bodies.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

I like to look at the stats for the games with intent to try and identify the real key stats that drive the outcome of the games. Yards per pass or run, turnovers, penalties, etc. It seemed to me that there has developed a pattern through the past 4 games, so I went back to look at it and I think I have confirmed my suspicions that the Cougs have been getting pummeled on plays that determine changes of possession. Not just turnovers, but plays on third and fourth down, where you are giving the ball away if you don't convert the first down play. No surprise to anyone here, I suppose, but we are getting beat by both offense and defense in these categories.

Here is the data, with WSU listed first:
UCLA- Third down conversions 2/13 vs 8/25; fourth down conversions 0/1 vs 3/3; turnovers created 2 vs 4
Arizona- Third down conversions 4/11 vs 10/17; fourth down conversions 0/3 vs 1/1; turnovers created 0 vs 3
Oregon- Third down conversions 4/14 vs 5/10; fourth down conversions 1/4 vs 0/0; turnovers created 0 vs 0
ASU- Third down conversions 3/12 vs 8/11; fourth down conversions 2/3 vs 0/0; turnovers created 0 vs 0

Bottom lines:
Third down conversions we lose 13/50=26% vs 31/63=49%. Getting ass kicked here.
Fourth down conversions we lose 3/11=27% vs 4/4=100% Small sample size, but getting drilled here also.
Turnovers we are losing at 2 vs 7, and the worst part of it is that we haven't created a single turnover in the past three games. UGH!

I remember thinking earlier in the season how much improved the downfield coverage by the DB's seemed to be from the past couple years, guys being tighter and making more plays. I no longer think that.

Feel a lot like the early Falk days when we'd routinely have net zero or net negative plays at least once per 3 downs, leaving very long 3rd downs. And I'm confident to say without having the stats in front of me that our yards to gain on 3rd down probably average 5 or more. That being said, we suck at 3rd and short yardage too - can't run, can't get to the sticks on a pass play. Its all around bad.

I wonder if there is a site that tracks negative plays from scrimmage, with and without penaties being included. I think I'll check...

 

[Wazzubrooz]

The tackling in the last 4 games has been horrible. Early in the season I remember saying how the Cougs were tackling so well and in space. Against ASU I must have seen 35 guys over-running plays, so of course they missed the tackle and were out of position. It’s like a light switch was flipped and we now have this terrible defense.