Mountain West football

[CougPatrol]

Can't help but to look more closely at the Mountain West Conference standings this season, and while is down some over the past couple of seasons, there's some good ball being played.

Air Force is 6-0 this season with a legitimate shot at going undefeated. They've blown the doors off of most of the teams they played, with 222 - 88 combined points for/against. Their 49-10 win vs. SDSU was impressive.

Wyoming is also having a strong season at 5-2 overall. Their losses were competitive games at Texas and at Air Force. Solid wins vs. Texas Tech and Fresno State.

The surprise team is UNLV at 5-1 for the season. They have an SEC win vs. Vanderbilt and their lone loss was 35-7 at Michigan. It would be a huge help to the conference if they figure things out and become a solid program year in, year out.

Fresno isn't as strong this season, but they're still 6-1 with only a narrow loss at Wyoming. Impressive wins at Purdue and at Arizona State.

Boise State is having their worst season in years. They're at 3-4 currently after a major choke job on a Hail Mary vs. CSU last weekend.

It's too bad that the media financials are as far off as they are with the P4 conferences, because this league is highly competitive and very entertaining.

 

[spongeandshoot]

Its good football...and they love their football.

Not Mountain West, but Montana has as passionate fan base as anyone. They love their football there no matter their conference.

Make the Big Time Where You Are.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Can't help but to look more closely at the Mountain West Conference standings this season, and while is down some over the past couple of seasons, there's some good ball being played.

Air Force is 6-0 this season with a legitimate shot at going undefeated. They've blown the doors off of most of the teams they played, with 222 - 88 combined points for/against. Their 49-10 win vs. SDSU was impressive.

Wyoming is also having a strong season at 5-2 overall. Their losses were competitive games at Texas and at Air Force. Solid wins vs. Texas Tech and Fresno State.

The surprise team is UNLV at 5-1 for the season. They have an SEC win vs. Vanderbilt and their lone loss was 35-7 at Michigan. It would be a huge help to the conference if they figure things out and become a solid program year in, year out.

Fresno isn't as strong this season, but they're still 6-1 with only a narrow loss at Wyoming. Impressive wins at Purdue and at Arizona State.

Boise State is having their worst season in years. They're at 3-4 currently after a major choke job on a Hail Mary vs. CSU last weekend.

It's too bad that the media financials are as far off as they are with the P4 conferences, because this league is highly competitive and very entertaining.

Let us not forget the ass whipping that Fresno State gave us in the bowl last year.

 

[CougPatrol]

Let us not forget the ass whipping that Fresno State gave us in the bowl last year.

Fresno, Colorado State, Hawaii, Nevada, Air Force, SDSU, Wyoming. These are the teams off the top of my head that I’ve personally watched beat us. That’s over half the league.

 

[Cougini5591]

Fresno, Colorado State, Hawaii, Nevada, Air Force, SDSU, Wyoming. These are the teams off the top of my head that I’ve personally watched beat us. That’s over half the league.

As I'm sure you recall..

Montana State should have beat us. Idaho beat us twice. Portland State and Eastern Wa beat us.

But let's be fair... we have beaten powerhouses as well.

Overall... we have beat more BIG BOYS than JV teams beating us.

I don't/won't use any of this to measure the goods and bads of the Mountain West

 

[COUGinNCW]

Fresno State outdraws every school in Cali not named USC.

Big fish in a pretty decent sized pond.

 

[longtimecoug]

As I'm sure you recall..

Montana State should have beat us. Idaho beat us twice. Portland State and Eastern Wa beat us.

But let's be fair... we have beaten powerhouses as well.

Overall... we have beat more BIG BOYS than JV teams beating us.

I don't/won't use any of this to measure the goods and bads of the Mountain West

I don't think so

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Fresno State outdraws every school in Cali not named USC.

Big fish in a pretty decent sized pond.

542,000 in the city #33 in the US), 1,008,000 metro area. we know about how big the SDSU footprint is. Colorado Springs (where I was born)? 479,000 (40th), 755,000 metro. Albuquerque?572,000 (32nd in US). San Jose, 1,013,000, 26th in US. 2,000,000 metro area. Yeah there are USU and Wyoming, but they are playing good football (esp Wyoming, home of Josh Allen)

Interesting article about the Mtn West teams turning a profit......

2022-23 Mountain West Revenue & Expenses

Air Force's revenue ranked 57th nationally, and all but one MWC school turned a fiscal profit.

superwestsports.com

 

[Flatlandcoug]

FWIW, if we take a $30 million hit by going to the MWC, it would put us in the mid 50's in revenue and would allow us to be between 5th and 7th in the MWC conference in expenses. Life will go on for us if we are forced to join the conference. If our fans were to step up and not suck so much financially, we could probably get into the Top 4.

What will be interesting is whether or not WSU and OSU's brand is good enough to slightly bump up the overall conference revenue by a small amount or if there would be any interest in renegotiating the deal altogether for something in the $12 million per year range. Won't help us in the standings financially but keep us slightly closer to where we were.

 

[95coug]

FWIW, if we take a $30 million hit by going to the MWC, it would put us in the mid 50's in revenue and would allow us to be between 5th and 7th in the MWC conference in expenses. Life will go on for us if we are forced to join the conference. If our fans were to step up and not suck so much financially, we could probably get into the Top 4.

What will be interesting is whether or not WSU and OSU's brand is good enough to slightly bump up the overall conference revenue by a small amount or if there would be any interest in renegotiating the deal altogether for something in the $12 million per year range. Won't help us in the standings financially but keep us slightly closer to where we were.

Our athletics budget this year is $84M. That's $17M more than any MWC school's expenses. Part of it is going to include debt payments on our facilities, so is pretty well fixed. We'll definitely have to find a way to cut costs, which is going to end up in salaries. Some of that will be in support staff, but it's going to hit coaches too. When Arbuckle moves on, he's not going to be replaced by someone in the same salary range - our candidate pool will no longer be G5 OC's, it'll be G5 position coaches and FCS OCs - guys we can get in the low 6 figures.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

FWIW, if we take a $30 million hit by going to the MWC, it would put us in the mid 50's in revenue and would allow us to be between 5th and 7th in the MWC conference in expenses. Life will go on for us if we are forced to join the conference. If our fans were to step up and not suck so much financially, we could probably get into the Top 4.

What will be interesting is whether or not WSU and OSU's brand is good enough to slightly bump up the overall conference revenue by a small amount or if there would be any interest in renegotiating the deal altogether for something in the $12 million per year range. Won't help us in the standings financially but keep us slightly closer to where we were.

As I have stated, if the Mtn West dissolves and we become the Pac 13/14, the Mtn West TV deal should die (I would think). So yeah we ought to be able to get some kind of better deal. Might mean a steady diet of 7:30pm games.

And I don't know where the pac-12 network fits into all this. Supposedly they made $40M in profit in 2022 (link below). Maybe it could be scaled back to Football and Basketball and just be on part time.

Pac-12 announces record 2021-22 financial results

In first reported financial year since the Covid-19 pandemic, record consolidated revenue at $581M with record total distributions at $444M, up 9% and 10% respectively from the last Pac-12 pre-pandemic 2019-2020 financial results Consolidated Expenses decrease 9% from last pre-pandemic 2019-2020...

pac-12.com

 

[425cougfan]

FWIW, if we take a $30 million hit by going to the MWC, it would put us in the mid 50's in revenue and would allow us to be between 5th and 7th in the MWC conference in expenses. Life will go on for us if we are forced to join the conference. If our fans were to step up and not suck so much financially, we could probably get into the Top 4.

What will be interesting is whether or not WSU and OSU's brand is good enough to slightly bump up the overall conference revenue by a small amount or if there would be any interest in renegotiating the deal altogether for something in the $12 million per year range. Won't help us in the standings financially but keep us slightly closer to where we were.

It wouldn't quite be a $30m hit, but that's in the neighborhood. A few things to keep in mind:

- Donations, etc. likely would drop off if we are in the MWC, as might other forms of revenue (e.g., concessions).

- We'd be behind Oregon State, too, both initially and almost certainly on an ongoing basis. (Same thing in the Big 12 or anywhere else, but just noting it since you are framing things in terms of standing in the conference.)

- Why would the addition of WSU and Oregon State make them want to renegotiate a deal paying $40m total per year to 10 schools, and around $50m total overall ($4m each to 10 participants, with Boise State and Hawaii having their own deals) to something that would pay, e.g., $168 million ($12m to 14 schools) per year? Neither that nor anything else close to it is happening. Maybe the deal that conference gets after completion of the 2025/26 season is substantially more than $4m per year per school, but we're probably talking more like $8m to 10m per school, all several years from now.

I'm not saying your broader points are off the mark or that we would be terribly off in the MWC. Not at all. Just providing a bit of color with my first two bullets, neither of which is that significant. My last bullet is pretty significant, though.

BTW, guess who has the MWC TV deal? Fox, the same entity that had a hand in USC and UCLA leaving and, while less clear, blowing things up generally in the Pac-12 and getting some decent properties into the Big 12, which also is on a Fox deal.

One way of thinking about the Big 12 thing, unless that picture is more complex than generally assumed (e.g., if ESPN also airs some Big 12 games, which I don't believe to be the case), is that from Fox's perspective, it can either (i) pay WSU and Oregon State $4m per year, or whatever meager restructured figure it will be under some kind of Mountain West restructured deal, to air their games through 2025/26, the term of the current Mountain West TV deal, or (ii) pay 750% of that by paying them $31m a year in the Big 12 deal if the Big 12 could be convinced to take it. So I don't see any compelling reason why Fox would ever want Oregon State or WSU in the Big 12, subject to a bit of complication in that CBS Sports Network also has a piece of the Mountain West deal.

Yeah, maybe our viewership is, say, 75% in the Mountain West of what it would be in the Pac-12 if none of this had happened, but it's a fraction of the price to get the content. It devalues that content in the longer run by destroying two universities' power-conference status, but it gets most of the "product" -- households tuning in -- for a very small portion of the cost. Sucks but it won't be direct, near-term financial reasons that cause the Big 12 to take WSU or Oregon State. It's going to have to be the application of legal leverage or something else.

 

[CougPatrol]

In spite of how bleak this all seems right now, I've learned a lot about our program over the nearly 40 years that I've been following WSU football.

I've always been critical of our fan attendance, but while WSU doesn't have a rabid fanbase that rivals those in the Southwest, Midwest, and Southeast, we do have a loyal core group of fans who attend games through thick and thin. Even in the eternal darkness of the Paul Wulff era in 2008-2010, we generally drew 25K fans for home games with the occasional 30K game. That's nothing to jump up and down about, but when the dust settles on the new conference alignment, WSU will continue to see similar home attendance numbers.

Pullman is a uniquely charming, small town community. The sting of no longer playing UW, Oregon, USC, etc. will be felt for a few years, but if we can settle into the new league and play to the level of the upper crust programs in the MWC, our fans will still roll into town ready to party. I genuinely believe that.

The top-3 programs in the MWC are almost always top-25 candidates. With the new 12-team playoff format, it's reasonable to expect that in most years, the MWC champion will be offered a bid to the playoff. If that's the case, the games vs. Boise State, SDSU, Fresno, Air Force, UNLV and Oregon State will have significance to our fans. It won't be as bigtime, but the experience for most of the people who currently attend home games, including future generations of students, will largely be the same.

 

[OrangeGravy]

In spite of how bleak this all seems right now, I've learned a lot about our program over the nearly 40 years that I've been following WSU football.

I've always been critical of our fan attendance, but while WSU doesn't have a rabid fanbase that rivals those in the Southwest, Midwest, and Southeast, we do have a loyal core group of fans who attend games through thick and thin. Even in the eternal darkness of the Paul Wulff era in 2008-2010, we generally drew 25K fans for home games with the occasional 30K game. That's nothing to jump up and down about, but when the dust settles on the new conference alignment, WSU will continue to see similar home attendance numbers.

Pullman is a uniquely charming, small town community. The sting of no longer playing UW, Oregon, USC, etc. will be felt for a few years, but if we can settle into the new league and play to the level of the upper crust programs in the MWC, our fans will still roll into town ready to party. I genuinely believe that.

The top-3 programs in the MWC are almost always top-25 candidates. With the new 12-team playoff format, it's reasonable to expect that in most years, the MWC champion will be offered a bid to the playoff. If that's the case, the games vs. Boise State, SDSU, Fresno, Air Force, UNLV and Oregon State will have significance to our fans. It won't be as bigtime, but the experience for most of the people who currently attend home games, including future generations of students, will largely be the same.

Attendance and donations are gonna tank. All of the disadvantages of Pullman still put WSU ass last in the MWC. If people are honest with themselves they'd admit that Pullman sucks unless your 20 years old. People don't want to pay for the hassle of going to Pullman to watch a bad team play in the pac. They aren't gonna pay to see a steady diet of San Jose states. We're gonna settle into an even worse place in the MWC pecking order than we're in now being a pac 12 member. That conference membership was the only thing keeping us even with the MWC programs to begin with and even then we couldn't beat half the conference. It won't get better from here

 

[CougPatrol]

Attendance and donations are gonna tank. All of the disadvantages of Pullman still put WSU ass last in the MWC. If people are honest with themselves they'd admit that Pullman sucks unless your 20 years old. People don't want to pay for the hassle of going to Pullman to watch a bad team play in the pac. They aren't gonna pay to see a steady diet of San Jose states. We're gonna settle into an even worse place in the MWC pecking order than we're in now being a pac 12 member. That conference membership was the only thing keeping us even with the MWC programs to begin with and even then we couldn't beat half the conference. It won't get better from here

You’re probably not wrong.

 

[425cougfan]

Attendance and donations are gonna tank. All of the disadvantages of Pullman still put WSU ass last in the MWC. If people are honest with themselves they'd admit that Pullman sucks unless your 20 years old. People don't want to pay for the hassle of going to Pullman to watch a bad team play in the pac. They aren't gonna pay to see a steady diet of San Jose states. We're gonna settle into an even worse place in the MWC pecking order than we're in now being a pac 12 member. That conference membership was the only thing keeping us even with the MWC programs to begin with and even then we couldn't beat half the conference. It won't get better from here

With you 100% except I think WSU will be a lower-third kind of program in terms of resources, not necessarily dead last, because there are a lot of programs in the Mountain West that aren't really any better off or all that much worse (e.g., Wyoming, Utah State, etc.), and WSU at least has the advantage of being in a state that has money and is growing, and occasionally even has some decent talent to recruit. More than Wyoming and the like. But with WSU tucked in the remote corner it is, it gets only a scintilla of the benefits that might otherwise be realized from that. Yeah!

 

[UberCougars]

State may have money, may be growing but attendance and revenues are falling. Soon revenue will fall abruptly.

I don’t see how more twenty something’s from Michigan or Connecticut or California working at Facebook is going to change that.

 

[CougPatrol]

One of the key issues is going to be how much money will WSU receive from the conference, and more importantly, how will choose to spend it.