I think this is partially correct. Did you catch the run blocking our O-Line was providing for him on run plays? Talk about being "spotty", at best. There is a real need for improvement just in that area alone!
Who benefits?
- Thread starter Ffffws
- Start date
True, but the rest of Hawaii’s RBs combined for a total of 82 carries and 444 yards - under 6 carries and 30 yards per game. Less than half of their leader’s numbers in both categories.
And, of the QBs, the starter had 101 carries.
I think all of the numbers suggest Rolovich relied heavily on the 1-deep at UH. Possible that was due to a lack of talent on the depth chart, I don’t know. I’m just hoping he doesn’t bring the same reliance to WSU, and recognizes where he’s got talent and depth.
The other thing I wonder - do we have a QB on the roster who can carry 7 times per game and have a decent positive average? Hawaii’s starter averaged 3.8 on 101 carries (removing 19 sacks and -128 yards, he rushed 82 times for 511, an average of 6.2 per).
The wide splits aren’t, to say the least, a productive run blocking alignment. With that said, there were more than a few times where I noticed Borghi cutting the wrong way, into traffic on interior runs.
Yes, it will be interesting how it plays out. I wonder about the QB running too. I'm sure they can tweak the load that each position carries depending on talent level. I like the average yards/carry that all the RBs had. They were very productive. I'm excited!
Didn't the Detroit Lions run the Run and Shoot with Wayne Fontes as the coach during Barry Sanders' prime?
Vision for a RB is much like speed, you either have it or you don't. You can slightly improve those things, but you aren't gonna move the needle much. A coach can help RB with things like blitz pick up and other nuances within the playbook in my opinion, but vision, not so much. Unless it's a cut for example that a RB has to trust will be there, but is hard to see at field level, it's too instinctual to teach.
This place will be a must read if either, A-Borghi gets the 20 carries a game and we still lose or B-He ends up getting the same amount of carries and less targets in the passing game. Both of which are possibilities. Not many people are even contemplating the possibility that our O-line could take a step back with a new system. They aren't strong run blockers to begin with. Who knows how this change will affect them.
I have to say that anyone criticizing Borghi's vision need to check themselves and reflect on the fact that Borghi averaged 6.4 yards per rushing attempt (2nd in the conference). That doesn't happen if a running back has a problem with his vision. Every running back occasionally hits the wrong spot.
While looking up the rushing stats, it became obvious that the comments about Borghi rushing 20 times per game is laughable. WSU has generally not been a run oriented team. Only one player in the entire conference averaged that many carries in 2019. To suggest that Rolovich is going to flip the switch and give Borghi the ball 120 times more in a season is just ignoring the way that the game is played today by the entire conference and WSU in particular. Borghi should get 4-5 more rushes per game than he did last year. If he can keep close to his average from 2019, that would put him around 1100 yards for the season. Being the first 1000 yard rusher at WSU in a long time would be great. Asking for much more than that is just not realistic.
A reasonable balance between rushing and passing is a good thing...but at the end of the day, passing the ball is ALWAYS going to yield more yards per attempt than rushing the ball. WSU isn't going to turn into Air Force or Navy just to pad Borghi's stats. He's excited about the coaching change and that's great. We all want Max to have a great season, but it's more important for WSU to be effective overall than to worry about Max's stats.
Finally, when both Cooper and Cruz were being recruited, everyone was excited by how well they ran the ball in high school. We are going to be fine at QB this year with either one of those guys when it comes to running with the ball.
While looking up the rushing stats, it became obvious that the comments about Borghi rushing 20 times per game is laughable. WSU has generally not been a run oriented team. Only one player in the entire conference averaged that many carries in 2019. To suggest that Rolovich is going to flip the switch and give Borghi the ball 120 times more in a season is just ignoring the way that the game is played today by the entire conference and WSU in particular. Borghi should get 4-5 more rushes per game than he did last year. If he can keep close to his average from 2019, that would put him around 1100 yards for the season. Being the first 1000 yard rusher at WSU in a long time would be great. Asking for much more than that is just not realistic.
A reasonable balance between rushing and passing is a good thing...but at the end of the day, passing the ball is ALWAYS going to yield more yards per attempt than rushing the ball. WSU isn't going to turn into Air Force or Navy just to pad Borghi's stats. He's excited about the coaching change and that's great. We all want Max to have a great season, but it's more important for WSU to be effective overall than to worry about Max's stats.
Finally, when both Cooper and Cruz were being recruited, everyone was excited by how well they ran the ball in high school. We are going to be fine at QB this year with either one of those guys when it comes to running with the ball.
Good point regarding the O line. These guys were recruited with wide splits and dropping back every play in mind. I think Lucas will be fine but the rest of them are TBD.
While passing always yields more YPA, it’s also worth noting that 3 things can happen, and 2 of them are bad.
Also when you’re inside the 10 yard line and the defense doesn’t have to defend 60 yards behind them, it’s a helluva lot easier to defend a pass first team.
The offense isn’t going to be able to trade body blows on the ground with USC, Stanford, UW, Utah, but I’m excited to have the legitimate threat of a run at any time. Leachs mindset was effective between the 20s, but predictable and easy for good defenses to defend.
The play calling needs to be better. If you have a heavy pass game, your run game is the draw. QB draw, RB draw, lead QB draw. Those plays are gonna fit nicely. They should keep the defense honest. Unless you never call them. Then the defense just back peddles into coverage.
Goal line offense, imo, is where a play caller earns their money. If Im a heavy pass offense I wanna show the defense things they haven't seen. New formations, diff personnel, new plays, play action, misdirection, something that makes them think presnap. Anything that causes hesitation or doubt in assignment or alignment. Make the back 7 think. Make the front question their alignment. Make them slow to make reads.
Essentially, earn your money as a coach. For f$cks sake you’re being paid $3M or more. Don’t struggle on the goal line because you can’t figure out a way to score from 5 yards out.
WSU ranked #47 in red zone efficiency last year. Hawaii ranked #74. Was similar the year prior in each case. We'll see what happens.
Sanders was a once-in-a-lifetime talent who was squandered because he only had a handful of offensive teammates that were any better than average (Herman Moore, Lomas Brown?). Atlanta and especially Houston ran similar offenses, with much better overall talent (especially the Oilers), and both teams had guys get to the Pro Bowl as featured backs (Lorenzo White, Gary Brown, and Ironhead Heyward).
The one thing I really loved about Leach's approach was it provided MUCH better execution in the red zone. A huge contrast from the Price days. I think we're going to regress in this area.
So I had to look it up for myself. The official final ranking for red zone efficiency according to the NCAA was WSU at #52 and Hawaii at #70. Of course, when you get into the weeds, you realize that the difference in that ranking is pretty meaningless. WSU scored on 85.9% of our redzone trips, Hawaii scored on 83.1% of theirs. Here is a further breakdown for your enjoyment.
WSU
Redzone Trips: 71
Rushing TDs: 10 (14%)
Passing TDs: 35 (49%)
FG: 16 (23%)
Total Scores: 61
Hawaii
Redzone Trips: 59
Rushing TDs: 19 (32%)
Passing TDs: 24 (41%)
FG: 6 (10%)
Total Scores: 49
So, WSU essentially scored two more times in the redzone when compared to Hawaii.....but 10 of those extra scores were field goals instead of touchdowns. We scored a total of 363 points (ignoring missed extra points out of laziness) or 5.11 points per redzone trip. Hawaii scored 319 points or 5.41 points per redzone trip. Long story short, WSU was kind of mediocre in the redzone last year and even worse once you realize how dependent we were on field goals. One more redzone TD instead of a field goal and we are tied with ASU and going to overtime. Scoring TD's instead of redzone field goals and we would have been leading Cal 21-20 heading into fourth quarter instead of trailing.
When you look at 2018, we had fewer redzone trips (64 instead of 71) but we scored touchdowns on 50 of those 64 trips (78%) instead of the 63% rate that we had in 2019. Despite having 7 fewer trips, we actually scored 5 more points. The players on the team obviously have a lot of impact on how that stat looks.
We are going to be fine in the redzone with Rolovich and probably better because we will be less dependent on the passing game, which usually suffers in the red zone due to the compression effect of a smaller field.
Good analysis. Breakdowns by team or quality of defense would be interesting too and I guess was part of my initial point about good defenses. Seems like against the Arizona’s, UCLAs, it’s a touchdown every time. Then UW, Cal, Utah, we were abysmal. I’d take not beating AZ by 50 to slam in a couple TDs to keep the AC competitive.
I watched the kid from Hawaii play a game on ESPN at the end of last season against a good team from (I think) Florida. While he showed promise and very well may be a good college QB in two or three seasons - if he challenges for playing time this season WSU is in for a very long year.
All good points, especially the per-redzone points metric. For some of the numbers, we have to control for Hawaii playing 15 games last year.
I'm with Chugs. The D as a whole is the group that will benefit from Rolo the most, because Rolo actually seems to care what is going on with the D.
If I were to pick who might benefit on the O side of the ball, aside from the obvious Max benefits, I'd say the O line. They were exceptionally one dimensional in the Air Raid. They get to do more things in the R&S. I'm expecting them to be better ball players and also be in a position to create more headaches for the D front 7 this year. The D can't simply assume that every play without a lengthy audible will be a pass play.
If I were to pick who might benefit on the O side of the ball, aside from the obvious Max benefits, I'd say the O line. They were exceptionally one dimensional in the Air Raid. They get to do more things in the R&S. I'm expecting them to be better ball players and also be in a position to create more headaches for the D front 7 this year. The D can't simply assume that every play without a lengthy audible will be a pass play.
Yes, our O line was recruited with the Air Raid O line blocking concept in mind. That doesn't mean they can't learn some new tricks. And if they can't, then someone who can will take their place. I've felt from the beginning that it would be surprising if the same 5 guys start on the O line this year for Rolo that would have started if Leach were still here. A new coach is always a new opportunity to show what you can do, and given the differences in blocking schemes, I suspect that at least one guy will break into the 1's on the line that would not have been there with CML.
If you wanna help your OL... either do the same thing every play so they get good at it... or do a great job of play calling so the DL has to prepare for everything.
If Rolo does a great job of calling a run game WSU will win league. The PAC 12 is not murderers row. Every team is more than beatable.
MB is a conference POY caliber kid. Has done a whole lot of not much running the ball. Leach leaving is the beat thing that happened to MB. He could go from little used back and a 5th round pick to explosive back and a 2nd round pick.
Im still at a loss as to why they didn't just line him up at slot if they were never gonna run him.
If Rolo does a great job of calling a run game WSU will win league. The PAC 12 is not murderers row. Every team is more than beatable.
MB is a conference POY caliber kid. Has done a whole lot of not much running the ball. Leach leaving is the beat thing that happened to MB. He could go from little used back and a 5th round pick to explosive back and a 2nd round pick.
Im still at a loss as to why they didn't just line him up at slot if they were never gonna run him.
There can be more slicing and dicing, but here are Rolovich's defensive rankings as a head coach by PPG, followed by his FEI defensive ranking by year in parentheses:
2016: 113th (101st)
2017: 106th (129th)
2018: 109th (117th)
2019: 98th (109th)
WSU over that period:
2016: 50th (42nd)
2017: 58th (13th)
2018: 15th (79th)
2019: 93rd (107th)
The rankings are taken from College Sports Reference. FEI comes from Football Outsiders, of course.
The FEI metric appears relatively favorable to WSU. I didn't choose it for that reason; I was going to use S&P+ but it was discontinued after 2018. Just trying to use some metric more advanced than PPG.
In any event, there's little reason to think Rolovich cares about what's going on defense more than Mike Leach based on any numbers I can find, admittedly without boiling the ocean in an effort to find any numbers that might possibly favor Hawaii over this time period.
(Relatedly, I think Leach cared about defense, but lacked any ability to make any substantive impact on that side of the ball, much like any other offense-first head coach but at an extreme level. We'll see what it looks like with Rolovich.)
If you flipped the names and the narrative about Rolovich was that he didn't care about defense--like the narrative was regarding Leach-- people would be apoplectic, claiming that the incoming head coach didn't give a damn about defense.
If one was looking at these numbers with names and other attachments removed, it might seem like last year's Swiss cheese defense at WSU might look like Rolovich's norm, rather than the abhorrent shitshow that we all hope was a one-year aberration.
All that said, I hope Rolovich does care about defense, and he seems like a nice guy who says things people like to hear at press conferences. There's reason to believe he indeed does care, with what appears to be a good set of assistants on that side of the ball. Everyone loves Dickert and the other Wyoming guys, and Banker appears to be a very good hire. Hopefully his issues at Hawaii had more to do with resource and personnel limitations than anything about his philosophy or lack of caring about what was going on.
425, I think your narrative is pretty good. Probably mostly accurate, even with the assumptions that had to be made. And I suspect your last sentence, in particular, is correct.
My comments were based more on Rolo's degree of involvement with the D recruiting to this point. It has been clear from what the recruits have said that he was a part of the process for pretty much all of them. It was a rare D recruit under CML who made those sorts of comments, other than the "mandatory" HC visit to the home. It is pretty clear at this point that the Wyoming group can recruit. Based on how their teams did, it also looks as though they can coach. I am impressed that Rolo appears to have gotten a DC & staff that can do both...CML's record in that area was spotty.
My comments were based more on Rolo's degree of involvement with the D recruiting to this point. It has been clear from what the recruits have said that he was a part of the process for pretty much all of them. It was a rare D recruit under CML who made those sorts of comments, other than the "mandatory" HC visit to the home. It is pretty clear at this point that the Wyoming group can recruit. Based on how their teams did, it also looks as though they can coach. I am impressed that Rolo appears to have gotten a DC & staff that can do both...CML's record in that area was spotty.
Yes, but no. Leach couldn't get the ball past mid-field against the mutts. Kal was the same way in the years it wasn't a shootout (pre Wilcox).
Cal and uw both know how to shut down Leach. It’s like watching the World Series of Poker... some guys know exactly what their opponents hand is and exactly what they will and wont do.
Last year- 6 trips 1 TD, 2 FG, downs, fumble, end of game. They did move the ball last year (not super efficiently) but needed 3/5 to be TDS to keep the game close. Granted not every year has been like that against UW, but even when we’ve moved the ball if it’s not via big play score we’ve been screwed inside the 20. Pretty much the same with the other top defenses in the league with a few exceptions (for some reason seems like Leach and his QBs would actually run it and not be so damn predictable against Oregon).
I'm hoping that the guys from Wyoming are legit. FWIW, here is Wyoming's FEI ranking in the past five years:
2015: 117th
2016: 73rd
2017: 23rd (Dickert joined the staff in February 2017)
2018: 32nd
2019: 35th
Scottie Hazelton (now at Michigan State) was the DC in 2017 and 2018 but the team didn't have a huge dropoff with Dickert taking over in 2019. Hazelton probably deserves most of the credit for Wyoming's improvement. It'll take time before we know if Dickert learned much from Hazelton.
I kind of like that analogy. They may or may not know all the cards that CML held, but they definitely knew EXACTLY how CML would play the cards that he had.
Ever hear the phrase “take what the defense gives you?”
It goes both ways. Take what the offense gives you. No run game, at all? Thanks! Pass to your RB 100 times and remove 100 passes from downfield? Thanks coach! Youre a great guy!!!
I have never seen a coach take away his best player doing what he does best (MB running the ball) AND taking away what his scheme’s mission statement is... throwing the ball to receivers. Why tf didnt he just go 5 wide if he was gonna throw it to MB anyways???
End rant lol.
He did go 5 wide. With Falk. Quite a bit actually. And about 90% of the time Falk didn’t make a quick enough decisions and got pummeled. Never yelled at the stupidity of a play so much as a statue like Falk with an empty set. Brutal.
Good points and worth calling out. Leach was completely hands-off on defense other than (sometimes) knowing their names. I'm hopeful it was more about those things I mentioned at Hawaii than anything else. One other good aspect of Rolovich, it seems, is his willingness to learn and improve, as evidenced by his scrapping the old offense to move to the R&S. He may have considered what worked and what didn't in his first head coaching gig and, with more resources and a better situation at WSU, set out to improve on those since he knew he had to.
I don't mean to come off as anti-Rolovich in any of my comments. I hope he succeeds at a level we have yet to see at WSU, and he seems like a great person. He certainly gets the people side of the equation in a way Leach never seemed to, and that can translate to wins. I do, however, think at least some of our fans have expectations for him that are likely to be dashed.
I dunno that we ever saw a Leach qb call a great game. GM was the closest but even he relied on the pass too much.
Mack Brown, while at UT, said if the AR ran the ball it’d be unstoppable. Imagine an opposing coach thinking so highly of the offense but not how the guru of it called it lol. You watch what happens at UNC.
Minshew had it figured out as much as one could...Aaand...a bogus call and freak storm away from being undefeated. Falk was a great talent...accurate, “graduate level” throws, but I could tell you every single play when he was at the line if it was run or pass. Gordon wasn’t quite as bad as Falk but not nearly as good as Minshew. I think Gordon could have been but he seemed like he wanted to break records, not grind out Ws.
If GM had another year in the scheme I think we would have seen a much improved effort in play calls.
If the fans in the stands know what play is coming, either the play is that good and the defense has no chance of stopping it OR the entire defense and the DC know what play is coming too and it’s gonna end in tears.
Leach’s AR is equivalent to a baseball pitcher only throwing a fastball. Maybe the heat is good enough to win most games. But when it isn’t and hitters tee off, what do you do next??? Cause more fastballs isn’t the answer.
Mack Brown at UT with Vince Young at QB lost to Bill Doba with road scholars Timm Rosenbach and Mike Levenseller calling plays (punts).
Mariano Rivera was recently unanimously elected to the baseball Hall of Fame despite throwing one pitch - a cut fastball.
ehhhhh, a cutter isn't a "fastball" in the sense most people think of fastballs. Its got pretty good break, which is what made Rivera virtually unhittable at times. And the more I think about this analogy, the whole thing doesn't work. A good fastball pitcher has good ball placement as well, else he's a bad fastball pitcher. So whether you're talking baseball or football, either you're good or you're not. How's that?
Similar threads
