I enjoy knowing you took the time to write this. Then you went back and edited it to make sure it was perfect. But I still don't care what you think. Sorry you care so much about what we think.
Will Jimmy Lake becoming coach be what it takes
- Thread starter ShockandAweWSU
- Start date
I agree. Paul Wulff was great at his WSU introductory press conference. Jim Mora at UCLA was going to be the next Pete Carroll. Lake may or may not be good, but an introductory press conference has zero value on how well a coach will do.
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This just in: sports fans are biased. Oh, and by the way, MY TEAM GOOD. YOUR TEAM BAD.
Pulitzer quality insight.
Looking at this logically, breaking it down.
1. UW is a semi blue chip, semi blue blood program that semi usually gets 3,4, and even 5 star recruits, semi top ranked classes, etc.
UW also has a LOT of money. And Peterson was a AWESOME coach.
Needless to say UW is a good, great HC job, that a LOT of TOP coaches would like.
Combine that with UW being able to pay 4.5, 5, 5.5+ million to, for a TOP, BETTER, SEMI BEST, etc, HC.
2. Lake:
Lake is,was a semi good, to good, to semi great DC. He has been a great secondary coach. He has NO HEAD COACH EXPERIENCE. Has ONLY been a P5 DC for 3 years. He is a awesome recruiter. But he has UNDERACHIEVED, based on what he should be doing with what he has. A top 25 defense is good, great, ok, etc. But he should have done better. He had 1 great, awesome year at UW. But his other 1,2,3 years at UW, have been mediocre, just barely slightly above average, 7,8,9 win years with WEAK, PATHETIC, EASY, SCHEDULING. NOT BAD. BUT NOT GREAT EITHER. And SHOULD HAVE DONE, AND COULD HAVE DONE BETTER WITH WHAT HAD.
3. Lake despite what said above, has done just barely a good enough job, that UW put in a hard position.
A. The fans, coaches, recruits, etc, everybody at UW, likes, loves, Lake, and thinks that he would be great as a head coach.
B. Combine that with 1. Jennifer being a NEWER, lower paid, less experienced AD, who doesnt have a football background, etc. 2. BIG TIME DONORS, TRUSTEES, PRES, LEGENDARY CHRIS PETERSON COACH, ETC, all DEMANDING, PUSHING for LAKE
4. Because of above Jennifer the UW AD had really ONLY 2 choices.
1. Hire Lake. Other AD's might have been able to hire someone else other then Lake or a Saban type. But not so with UW's AD. She had to either hire Lake or Hire a Saban Type. She was probably even told that by the Pres, Trustee's, Fans, Players, Coaches, Boosters, Donors, Tyee Club, etc.
UW, and the AD's position, is very like to WSU's situation, when Mike Price left to go to Alabama, and Doba the DC was promoted to HC
2. Pay 5,5.5,6 million for a Saban, Urban type coach.
If, and since UW, the AD were going to Promote within, they should have at least done a coaching search, and done some interviews. Failing to do that, is bad, over confidence in Lake, and is bad on not only the AD, but bad on everybody else that demanded, put her the AD in that position.
But she as the AD should have at least demanded that a formal coaching search, and interview be done BEFORE hiring Lake.
But what was done was done.
I think this is going to be a Sarkisian like, ok, average, mediocre, 5,6,7,8,9 wins a season type of hire for UW.
1. As others have pointed out, the record of coaches doing good as a promoted from within coach after a legendary coach retires, is NOT GOOD.
2. Lake, is a C+, to B-, to B+ letter grade coach. Which would be ok, if he Lake had 5 to 9 years exp as DC, or had 2,3,4 years HC level, etc. But with NO HC EXP, and ONLY 3 years P5 DC, that is NOT GOOD ENOUGH. Lake would need a A-, A, A+ grade to go with his Resume, or lack thereof, to be a serious, hardcore, awesome, etc, candidate.
And as such getting, going after Lake would be like going after a Beau Baldwin, FCS, Mid Major, Group of 5 HC, or a P5 DC, OC, with 1,2 3, years exp.
Lake is the type of coaching hire that WSU types would typically have to, want to make, as WSU types, typically hire FCS head coaches like Beau Baldwin, Paul Wulf(Yes as bad as Paul Wulf was, he was almost as qualified, Resume wise at the time, as Lake is now), group of 5, mid major HC's, P5 DC, OC.
The problem with WSU type hires of FCS, group of 5, mid major HC, P5 DC, OC, etc, is that they are often a roll of the dice, gamble, etc.
At WSU types, that usually means a range of about 3 to 8 wins a season, with 5.5 wins a season, being average.
At a UW type the range for that kind of hire is about 5 to 10 wins with 7,8 7.5 wins per year at average.
Now UW hiring Lake is not bad, and is a ok, good, hire. And Lake might be awesome at UW.
But just dont know.
But the problem with UW's Hire:
1. THEY CAN DO, AMD SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE A HIRE WAY BETTER THEN THE LAKE hire.
This is UW that talking about, not WSU.
If this was WSU, Lake might be a awesome hire at a WSU type. And a WSU type usually cant make a better hire then a Lake type of hire.
But at a UW type, they should be able to do better then a Lake type of Hire.
And other UW types of Colleges would not hire Lake.
And if other UW types did, were to hire a Lake type of hire, they would of first done a coaching search, interviewed candidates, before interviewing a Lake, and drciding that Lake was the best hire.
But most likely most other UW types would do a coaching search for a Saban, Urban Type, and then pay them 5, 5.5, 6, 6.5, etc, million to them to coach at them a UW type.
UW can, should have done better then Lake.
And the only 3 reasons why the UW AD didnt do better then the Lake hire.
1. Admin, Pres, Trustees, coaches, donors, fans, players, recruits, etc, almost practically forcing her to hire Lake.
2. Trying to save some money.
3. Incompetance, etc.
4. Probabably some mix of the above 3.
Also it doesnt matter if it was the best press conference in college football history, that's not what determines, shows, not even evidence of a coach being a good or bad coach.
There has been some best ever press conferences of coaches that were, are bad.
And Lake, logically, rationally, reasonably, factually, statistically, etc, going by his resume, situation, etc, should win about 5 to 10 wins at UW, with 4,5 wins, his floor, and 10,11 wibs his ceiling, and 7,8, 7.5 wins a season, at everage.
And I think that Lake will get 6,7,8, 7 wins at average at UW.
Which is not bad. But not great either. And UW can and should do better then that, Lake.
And so because of that I think UW, AD made a not as good hire.
I give the hire a C-, to C, to C+,B- grade.
Which is fine by me, as a WSU fan
1. UW is a semi blue chip, semi blue blood program that semi usually gets 3,4, and even 5 star recruits, semi top ranked classes, etc.
UW also has a LOT of money. And Peterson was a AWESOME coach.
Needless to say UW is a good, great HC job, that a LOT of TOP coaches would like.
Combine that with UW being able to pay 4.5, 5, 5.5+ million to, for a TOP, BETTER, SEMI BEST, etc, HC.
2. Lake:
Lake is,was a semi good, to good, to semi great DC. He has been a great secondary coach. He has NO HEAD COACH EXPERIENCE. Has ONLY been a P5 DC for 3 years. He is a awesome recruiter. But he has UNDERACHIEVED, based on what he should be doing with what he has. A top 25 defense is good, great, ok, etc. But he should have done better. He had 1 great, awesome year at UW. But his other 1,2,3 years at UW, have been mediocre, just barely slightly above average, 7,8,9 win years with WEAK, PATHETIC, EASY, SCHEDULING. NOT BAD. BUT NOT GREAT EITHER. And SHOULD HAVE DONE, AND COULD HAVE DONE BETTER WITH WHAT HAD.
3. Lake despite what said above, has done just barely a good enough job, that UW put in a hard position.
A. The fans, coaches, recruits, etc, everybody at UW, likes, loves, Lake, and thinks that he would be great as a head coach.
B. Combine that with 1. Jennifer being a NEWER, lower paid, less experienced AD, who doesnt have a football background, etc. 2. BIG TIME DONORS, TRUSTEES, PRES, LEGENDARY CHRIS PETERSON COACH, ETC, all DEMANDING, PUSHING for LAKE
4. Because of above Jennifer the UW AD had really ONLY 2 choices.
1. Hire Lake. Other AD's might have been able to hire someone else other then Lake or a Saban type. But not so with UW's AD. She had to either hire Lake or Hire a Saban Type. She was probably even told that by the Pres, Trustee's, Fans, Players, Coaches, Boosters, Donors, Tyee Club, etc.
UW, and the AD's position, is very like to WSU's situation, when Mike Price left to go to Alabama, and Doba the DC was promoted to HC
2. Pay 5,5.5,6 million for a Saban, Urban type coach.
If, and since UW, the AD were going to Promote within, they should have at least done a coaching search, and done some interviews. Failing to do that, is bad, over confidence in Lake, and is bad on not only the AD, but bad on everybody else that demanded, put her the AD in that position.
But she as the AD should have at least demanded that a formal coaching search, and interview be done BEFORE hiring Lake.
But what was done was done.
I think this is going to be a Sarkisian like, ok, average, mediocre, 5,6,7,8,9 wins a season type of hire for UW.
1. As others have pointed out, the record of coaches doing good as a promoted from within coach after a legendary coach retires, is NOT GOOD.
2. Lake, is a C+, to B-, to B+ letter grade coach. Which would be ok, if he Lake had 5 to 9 years exp as DC, or had 2,3,4 years HC level, etc. But with NO HC EXP, and ONLY 3 years P5 DC, that is NOT GOOD ENOUGH. Lake would need a A-, A, A+ grade to go with his Resume, or lack thereof, to be a serious, hardcore, awesome, etc, candidate.
And as such getting, going after Lake would be like going after a Beau Baldwin, FCS, Mid Major, Group of 5 HC, or a P5 DC, OC, with 1,2 3, years exp.
Lake is the type of coaching hire that WSU types would typically have to, want to make, as WSU types, typically hire FCS head coaches like Beau Baldwin, Paul Wulf(Yes as bad as Paul Wulf was, he was almost as qualified, Resume wise at the time, as Lake is now), group of 5, mid major HC's, P5 DC, OC.
The problem with WSU type hires of FCS, group of 5, mid major HC, P5 DC, OC, etc, is that they are often a roll of the dice, gamble, etc.
At WSU types, that usually means a range of about 3 to 8 wins a season, with 5.5 wins a season, being average.
At a UW type the range for that kind of hire is about 5 to 10 wins with 7,8 7.5 wins per year at average.
Now UW hiring Lake is not bad, and is a ok, good, hire. And Lake might be awesome at UW.
But just dont know.
But the problem with UW's Hire:
1. THEY CAN DO, AMD SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE A HIRE WAY BETTER THEN THE LAKE hire.
This is UW that talking about, not WSU.
If this was WSU, Lake might be a awesome hire at a WSU type. And a WSU type usually cant make a better hire then a Lake type of hire.
But at a UW type, they should be able to do better then a Lake type of Hire.
And other UW types of Colleges would not hire Lake.
And if other UW types did, were to hire a Lake type of hire, they would of first done a coaching search, interviewed candidates, before interviewing a Lake, and drciding that Lake was the best hire.
But most likely most other UW types would do a coaching search for a Saban, Urban Type, and then pay them 5, 5.5, 6, 6.5, etc, million to them to coach at them a UW type.
UW can, should have done better then Lake.
And the only 3 reasons why the UW AD didnt do better then the Lake hire.
1. Admin, Pres, Trustees, coaches, donors, fans, players, recruits, etc, almost practically forcing her to hire Lake.
2. Trying to save some money.
3. Incompetance, etc.
4. Probabably some mix of the above 3.
Also it doesnt matter if it was the best press conference in college football history, that's not what determines, shows, not even evidence of a coach being a good or bad coach.
There has been some best ever press conferences of coaches that were, are bad.
And Lake, logically, rationally, reasonably, factually, statistically, etc, going by his resume, situation, etc, should win about 5 to 10 wins at UW, with 4,5 wins, his floor, and 10,11 wibs his ceiling, and 7,8, 7.5 wins a season, at everage.
And I think that Lake will get 6,7,8, 7 wins at average at UW.
Which is not bad. But not great either. And UW can and should do better then that, Lake.
And so because of that I think UW, AD made a not as good hire.
I give the hire a C-, to C, to C+,B- grade.
Which is fine by me, as a WSU fan
Worth noting that 3 of 4 coaches vying for the national championship this year arrived at their present positions as internally promoted assistants with no head coaching experience.
A UW type is not a Alabama Type. Semi close tho. But close, let alone semi close only counts in horseshoes.
Its Alabama Types, not UW types that played.in the play offs for the national championship.
Alabama types could promote from within for the next 50 years, and still be ok.
Not so with the rest of the CFB programs.
So because of that, just because it works for Alabama types, doesnt mean it can, will, should, etc, work for a UW type.
It working for a Alabama type is a statistical outlier, anomaly to the normal statistic that USUALLY when a legendary coach retires, fired, etc, that USUALLY the promoted from within replacement, USUALLY doesnt do good.
I dunno, I hope Jimmy Lake fails but he was likely a good hire. I think it has become very high risk to keep throwing more and more money at the same shrinking stable of old war horses. Too many of them are pack mules loaded down with baggage rather than war horses anyway.
Jimmy Lake is LIKELY a ok, to semi good hire, not a good or great hire, for the reasons I said.
He, Lake will PROBABLY LIKELY win about 7,8, 7.5 wins a year, and continuing to beat WSU, as long as Leach at WSU.
UW could, should be able to do better then that, for the reasons I explained.
And I am ok with that.
I would rather have UW not hire as well as could, should have and have Lake win 7.5 games a season, and keep on beating a Leach WSU, then for UW to hire the way it can, should have, and thus have a UW coach win 9.5 games a season, in addition to not only beating a Leach WSU but BLOWING out a Leach WSU, EVERY year.
In other words:
IT COULD, SHOULD HAVE BEEN A MUCH WORSE HIRE FOR WSU, LEACH
He, Lake will PROBABLY LIKELY win about 7,8, 7.5 wins a year, and continuing to beat WSU, as long as Leach at WSU.
UW could, should be able to do better then that, for the reasons I explained.
And I am ok with that.
I would rather have UW not hire as well as could, should have and have Lake win 7.5 games a season, and keep on beating a Leach WSU, then for UW to hire the way it can, should have, and thus have a UW coach win 9.5 games a season, in addition to not only beating a Leach WSU but BLOWING out a Leach WSU, EVERY year.
In other words:
IT COULD, SHOULD HAVE BEEN A MUCH WORSE HIRE FOR WSU, LEACH
All it takes is a husky troll to set off commentary. Wish they would visit during the slow time of the year!
The facts with regard to the Lake hire are pretty simple. He will do one of three things:
- succeed wildly. Eventually leave UW for tOSU, USC or somewhere similar.
- prosper in a mediocre manner, continually delivering 7-9 win seasons, depending upon how the stars align, key injuries occur, recruits pan out, etc. The Helton of Seattle.
- either fail on the field or get nailed due to a scandal of some sort.
If I were betting my house or something of similar value to me, I'd pick the middle option. There is a small chance of the first choice...heck, now and then an internal promotion upon the surprise resignation of the guy ahead of him works out OK. Bear in mind, citing Ancient's post above, those internal hires he mentions took place after some time and thought/consideration/search. They didn't happen within days of the surprise resignation of the legend, with no critical thought, visibility or search. I suspect that when the resignation was announced, Lake told the AD to either promote him immediately or watch him leave, and she folded. It might work out for UW. We'll just have to see. It will probably take 2-3 years to have a fair indication and 4-5 years to be sure.
As for the scandal possibility, I guess that depends upon how the coffee cups of cash and interactions with the other gender unfold in our era of hyper-sensitivity to those issues. You would have to assume that Lake is smart enough and has the temperament to avoid those situations...maybe. And that his staff will be selected with the ability to avoid those things in mind...maybe. Because as we've seen several times recently, those two things can be staff killers. And I mean entire staffs, including the HC. Any staff from top to bottom that is not selected with those things as a partial criteria is putting both the rest of the staff and the institution at risk. No joke.
The facts with regard to the Lake hire are pretty simple. He will do one of three things:
- succeed wildly. Eventually leave UW for tOSU, USC or somewhere similar.
- prosper in a mediocre manner, continually delivering 7-9 win seasons, depending upon how the stars align, key injuries occur, recruits pan out, etc. The Helton of Seattle.
- either fail on the field or get nailed due to a scandal of some sort.
If I were betting my house or something of similar value to me, I'd pick the middle option. There is a small chance of the first choice...heck, now and then an internal promotion upon the surprise resignation of the guy ahead of him works out OK. Bear in mind, citing Ancient's post above, those internal hires he mentions took place after some time and thought/consideration/search. They didn't happen within days of the surprise resignation of the legend, with no critical thought, visibility or search. I suspect that when the resignation was announced, Lake told the AD to either promote him immediately or watch him leave, and she folded. It might work out for UW. We'll just have to see. It will probably take 2-3 years to have a fair indication and 4-5 years to be sure.
As for the scandal possibility, I guess that depends upon how the coffee cups of cash and interactions with the other gender unfold in our era of hyper-sensitivity to those issues. You would have to assume that Lake is smart enough and has the temperament to avoid those situations...maybe. And that his staff will be selected with the ability to avoid those things in mind...maybe. Because as we've seen several times recently, those two things can be staff killers. And I mean entire staffs, including the HC. Any staff from top to bottom that is not selected with those things as a partial criteria is putting both the rest of the staff and the institution at risk. No joke.
[Bear in mind, citing Ancient's post above, those internal hires he mentions took place after some time and thought/consideration/search. They didn't happen within days of the surprise resignation of the legend, with no critical thought, visibility or search.
Not sure you are right about that cr8zyincalif. From the outside the Lincoln Riley promotion looked very much like the Jimmy Lake promotion. The legendary coach retires and simultaneously announces the new coach. To be fair, both Dabo Swinney and Ryan Day had tryouts as interim head coaches before their promotions. But in none of these cases was there a traditional search where you fly in a few recovering alcoholics from the old coaches home and a couple of active coaches that aren’t that interested, then hire the guy you wanted in the first place.
Not sure you are right about that cr8zyincalif. From the outside the Lincoln Riley promotion looked very much like the Jimmy Lake promotion. The legendary coach retires and simultaneously announces the new coach. To be fair, both Dabo Swinney and Ryan Day had tryouts as interim head coaches before their promotions. But in none of these cases was there a traditional search where you fly in a few recovering alcoholics from the old coaches home and a couple of active coaches that aren’t that interested, then hire the guy you wanted in the first place.
Paul Wulff spent exactly 0 seconds, 0 minutes, 0 hours, 0 days, 0 months, 0 years coaching on a FBS, Power 5 or NFL staff before he set foot in Pullman as head coach.
His coaching resume was crap - a loss to Central Washington the previous season and NCAA violations at EWU (some of them in conjunction with assistant coach Jimmy Lake in 2003)
Wulf like Beau Baldwin won a LOT of games at EWU as EWU Head Coach. And Wulf aa EWU head coach has, had won big sky championships, and if I remember right also went to the FCS playoffs once, or almost went to the FCS playoffs once, almost a little like Beau Baldwin.
Now Beau Baldwin was certainly better, won more games, went to the playoffs, etc.
But Wulf's record as head coach of EWU, was nothing to Snide at.
And IF ONLY looked at Wulf's record as HC of EWU, and NOTHING else, one could make a case back then, that that alone in theory would make him a semi viable FBS, Mid Major, P5, WSU type of HC candidate.
Now thats not saying he should have been hired. And there was other stuff that showed that he would be a bad hire despite his EWU success.
BUT if Wulf's resume, ONLY had his EWU success, stacked up against LAKE, he would ALMOST be as good a candidate as LAKE. NOTE I SAID ALMOST. THAT IS NOT THE SAME AS, AS GOOD AS.
Wulf: Awesome success at, as EWU HC
LAKE: EWU assistant coach. Mid Major/P5 POSITION/SECONDARY COACH. 3 years as P5 DC. NO HC EXPERIENCE.
Now looking at that, just that, and only that, and nothing else, that makes Wulf SEEM to be almost as good as, almost as good a resume as LAKE's, and could even see a FBS, Mid Major, Power 5, WSU type of team, and not just WSU,taking that as Wulfs resume, over LAKES resume.
Also your missing the point.
The point is that UW, really did not make as good a hire as they could have, should have, by, in hiring Lake, and that the Lake, UW hire is a C-, C, C+ letter grade hire.
Not saying that Wulf had a great resume. He didnt.
Not saying Wulf should have been hired. HE WULF SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN HIRED.
But just like Wulf's Resume was, is crap to be a HC at UW, and at WSU, etc.
LAKE's resume is ALSO CRAP TO BE A HC AT UW.
But UW can win 5 to 10 wins a season even with a coach that has a CRAP HC resume, like Lake, etc.
Mike, I gotta hand it to you. That is probably the best back-handed defense of Paul Wulff's credentials prior to being hired by WSU that I've seen. Even allowing for your grammar and language challenges, it is pretty logical and coherent. Good job.
