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Realignment - time to get real

Ok guys. This non-autonomy relegation is a bummer but not surprising or undeserved. Why should the Pac-2 get voting power equivalent to the 12-14-18 (I can't keep track) team P4?

So. Let's quit F-ing around hoping for a Big-12 invite (they don't want us and it would suck anyway), or some far-flung ACC restructure (won't happen, it would REALLY suck and they don't want us anyway).

Do the reverse merger with the Mtn West ASAP before one or more of them gets plucked out from under us. Save a few bucks on our 2025 affiliation option and - wow - maybe actually share in some media money and NCAA allocations to be earned in '25 and later. Won't cost us a dime and will save money as we jettison most of all of the Pac-2 Administration in favor of Gloria and gang.

Salvage what we can from the current bowl affiliations before contracts expire in 2026. Which makes it imperative that we move SOON. Alamo, Holiday, Sun and Vegas in order of preference/payout. With San Diego and Las Vegas as new Pac-12/14 hometowns, we may stand a chance of keeping the Holiday and Vegas. Sun Bowl can go away IMHO.

Stretch the cash windfall out as far as we can as we readjust. Don't forget the NCAA BB payouts in years 3-6, which we get only if the Pac remains in existence.

I am aware that the above concept has never been thrown out by the All-Knowing and Superior-Intellect Loyal One, so I favor you all by spelling it out here. Feel free to chime in with roaring approval. :)

What are the odds of a reverse merger? Also, the broken NIL...

Jon Wilner
April 20, 2024 at 7:00 am Updated April 20, 2024 at 7:00 am
The Hotline mailbag publishes each Friday. … Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

What are the odds of a reverse merger between the Mountain West and the Pac-12 versus the Pac-12 simply poaching a selection of Mountain West schools to rebuild the conference? — @MarcSheehan006

It hinges, in part, on your definition of a reverse merger. But generally, we see three possible outcomes:

• All 12 schools vote to dissolve the Mountain West and join Washington State and Oregon State in rebuilding the Pac-12.

• At least nine but not all 12 schools vote to dissolve the Mountain West — a super-majority vote is required — and they join the Pac-12, leaving a few behind.

the latest from jon wilner​

• Between four and eight schools give notice that they are leaving the Mountain West in the summer of 2026 to join the Pac-12, a scenario that leads to departure fees for the outbound schools and a poaching penalty for the Pac-12.

The top candidates to leave are fairly clear and would bring competitive success, media value or both: San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State, Colorado State and UNLV.

The schools in jeopardy of getting left behind would be some combination of Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada, Wyoming and San Jose State, depending on the number of spots available.

Air Force and New Mexico fall into a middle tier, in our view.

Which scenario is most likely?

That would depend entirely on who else is available.

Washington State and Oregon State would prefer that another round of realignment creates a path into the ACC or Big 12 or some larger combination of those two conferences.

The next-best scenario for the ‘Pac-2’ schools would entail an ACC implosion that results in Cal and Stanford joining WSU and OSU in a rebuilt Pac-12. (In that case, the reconfigured conference would target only a few schools in the Mountain West.)

The third scenario would leave WSU and OSU with no path into the ACC or Big 12 and no possibility of Stanford and Cal returning. They would be forced to think bigger than a reverse merger with the Mountain West.

They would consider Gonzaga as a non-football member.

They would explore enlarging the conference footprint to include schools in Texas, with UTSA as an intriguing target.

They might even entertain the idea of creating a bicoastal league with schools in the Eastern Time Zone.

Keep in mind an essential element to the calculation: The Mountain West’s media deal with Fox and CBS expires in the summer of 2026, which coincides with the deadline for the emergence of a rebuilt Pac-12.

The media rights strategy will inform expansion decisions for WSU and OSU, and vice versa. The ‘Pac-2’ will attempt to create the most valuable entity possible.

And quantity doesn’t always equal value.

Are we overestimating the likelihood of a reverse merger? The Mountain West may not have a 100-year legacy, but it’s their legacy. — @Moneyline_RAY

Yes and no.

At this point, the likelihood of WSU and OSU executing a reverse merger, with either nine or all 12 Mountain West schools is less than 50-50.

But the chances of WSU and OSU partnering with some combination of Mountain West schools under the Pac-12 banner is close to 90%. Unless there’s a path into the ACC or Big 12, the Cougars and Beavers won’t have any other option.

Granted, we should not discount the possibility of WSU and OSU joining the Mountain West in a traditional expansion move.

But in our view — and despite everything that has unfolded in the past two years — the Pac-12 name and intellectual property are more valuable than the Mountain West name and intellectual property.

(How much more valuable? We can’t quantify the amount.)

And here’s one more piece to consider: Central to the long-haul strategy in Pullman and Corvallis is providing a landing spot in case the NCAA undergoes a massive restructuring — the formation of a super league, for instance — and several of the departing universities consider reversing course.

In that case, an active, competitive conference using the Pac-12 name would be more attractive.


Sponsored​


We keep hearing the ‘Pac-2’ schools have a two-year grace period under NCAA rules. But don’t they really have 12 or 14 months to formalize their plan? — @erikmiletich

Your timeframe is about right. In order for a rebuilt Pac-12 to emerge in the summer of 2026, the process for adding schools would need to begin sometime next summer.

The ‘Pac-2′ schools don’t necessarily need a formal media rights agreement in place by that point. But they would need to have the membership piece locked down.

The other element, of course, is the Mountain West’s penalty structure. Our understanding is that schools would owe approximately $18 million if they give more than 12 months’ notice and roughly $35 million if they give less than 12 months’ notice.

So, let’s mark June 30, 2025, as the Hotline’s unofficial deadline for Washington State and Oregon State to finalize their next move.

Can you interview former Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff to follow up on the conversation from the ‘Canzano and Wilner’ podcast from the fall of 2022? What went wrong? — @mlondo856

I would love to and, in fact, have made several attempts in the past nine months to interview Kliavkoff. He’s not interested. Radio silence is his preferred approach.

But it’s not just the Hotline. Kliavkoff has not uttered a public peep since the conference imploded on Aug. 4. No offerings of regret or remorse. No apology to WSU, OSU and fans across the footprint.

As we wrote when his term concluded at the end of February, Kliavkoff doesn’t believe he has reason to apologize, according to sources.

He blames the collapse entirely on the presidents’ poor leadership, the difficult circumstances he inherited (from Larry Scott), and the schools’ refusal to accept the Apple deal he placed before them.

His stance is, of course, ludicrous. Of course he bears some responsibility.

But he has the right to remain silent.

Any estimates on how much former Oregon State tailback Damien Martinez will make now that he’s in the transfer portal? — @bdgiddens6

Our guess is that Martinez lands a deal in the mid-six-figure range, so anywhere from $400,000 to $600,000.

How much will be guaranteed? How much will the agreement lean into incentives? We can’t answer and don’t really care.

Money played a factor in Martinez’s decision to enter the transfer portal, but it wasn’t the only factor.

He wants the largest platform possible for his final season in order to prove to NFL scouts that he’s worthy of being a high-round draft pick.

The stouter the competition, the better.

In that regard, his decision was comparable to Jonathan Smith’s move to Michigan State. They craved competition, exposure and resources on a higher level.

We remain optimistic about Oregon State’s long-haul status in college football and basketball — the industry will eventually restructure to the point that the ‘Pac-2’ schools are on the same tier as many schools remaining in the power conferences.

But the next few years will be brutally, indisputably difficult.

Do you think the current state of NIL is broken? If so, how would you fix it if you were head of the NCAA? — @BennyL1986

It has been broken from Day One, July 1, 2021, when the NCAA prohibited schools from participating in the NIL process, thereby ensuring the booster-run collectives would control the marketplace.

Not quite three years later, the NCAA is moving toward a complete policy reversal and permitting athletic departments to broker the deals between the athletes and their business partners.

The shift will add oversight but won’t dampen the market.

What might bring some sanity?

If athletes are declared employees and paid salaries by the schools — we think that step is inevitable in the next two or three years — the impact of NIL opportunities on recruiting and transfer decisions could diminish slightly.

Like so much else about college sports, NIL is an absolute mess.

Why do you hate on Washington football so much? — @jakekwood

There is no hate. The Hotline doesn’t hate any team or school. We don’t even dislike any team or school.

Picking against a team to win during the season does not indicate an inherent bias.

All the fans who believe I’m anti-Husky because of the weekly picks seem to have forgotten that I projected Washington to win the Pac-12 championship eight months before the season began.

UW’s march to the title made the Hotline look smart. Given all the times my predictions are wrong, I’m never opposed to being right.

What do you think of the Ivy League? How does it fit into your assessment of the college athletic scene? — Lawrence Grant

When we think of the Ivy League these days, we think of irony.

With its absence of scholarships and heavy emphasis on academics, the Ivy is closer to the NCAA ideal of amateurism than any other conference in Division I.

And yet, it’s at the center of the revolution, courtesy of the Dartmouth basketball team voting to unionize.

With an assist from the National Labor Relations Board, the Green Wave voted 13-2 last month to join Service Employees International Union Local 560.

The process will take time to play out. But if successful, the players would form the first labor union in college athletics.

Jon Wilner: jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com

Stupid NCAA "Emergency" rule passed

I posted about his when it was pending and got little interest - posters are too busy feeding mutt trolls I guess.

Anyway the rule is now official per (reputable sports) link below. Still don't get it. On the first part, is this a change? Weren't they already eligible (to practice, etc.) immediately? And what does "play immediately" mean when followed by "can't play for a second school in the same year"?

A new NCAA transfer rule will allow all undergraduate athletes to transfer and play immediately if they meet specific academic requirements, as the Division I Council on Wednesday approved emergency legislation announced by the NCAA.

The rule will provide immediately eligibility to any athletes who have transferred during the 2023-24 academic year, including the football players who entered the transfer portal Tuesday and during this window

The legislation will not limit the number of times an athlete can transfer -- and there are still two transfer windows -- but they can't transfer midyear and play for a second school in the same season.


Jabe Mullins...

Former WSU guard Jabe Mullins announces commitment to Montana State​

Greg WoodsApril 19, 2024 at 7:00 pm
By
The Spokesman-Review
PULLMAN — Former WSU guard Jabe Mullins is on the move again.

Mullins has committed to Montana State, he shared on social media Friday, heading to the third school of his career. He played his first two seasons at Saint Mary’s.

Mullins, a Snoqualmie native, averaged 1.6 points in nine minutes last season, taking a lesser role as WSU broke its 16-year NCAA tournament drought. After starting eight of 30 games as a junior, Mullins saw limited action as a senior, playing his most minutes in Pac-12 with a 17-minute outing in Washington State’s win over USC on Jan. 10.

At Saint Mary’s, where he played the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, Mullins started 11 of 53 games, all his starts coming as a freshman.

Mullins, who entered the transfer portal in late March, is the fifth former Cougar to find a new home this offseason: Star guard Myles Rice landed at Indiana, center Rueben Chinyelu transferred to Florida, fellow center Oscar Cluff moved on to South Dakota State and guard Dylan Darling traveled south to Idaho State.

That leaves six Cougs in the portal: Senior wing Andrej Jakimovski, senior guard Joseph Yesufu, sophomore wing Kymany Houinsou, forward AJ Rohosy, walk-on forward AJ LeBeau and sophomore forward Spencer Mahoney, who entered the portal on Thursday.

Holdovers from last season still on the WSU roster are rising sophomore guards Isaiah Watts and Parker Gerrits, plus rising senior wing Jaylen Wells, who has until May 29 to decide whether to stay in the NBA draft pool or return to school.

This week, WSU also secured two commitments from new coach David Riley’s former squad at Eastern Washington: Center Ethan Price and wing LeJuan Watts.

Greg Woods Washington State beat writer for The Spokesman-Review

Pac-12 "autonomous conference status" stripped....


This hasn't been reported, that I am aware of....
"After that, the future is uncertain. The Pac-12 and Mountain West signed an agreement in the fall to work in good faith to merge by the 2025-26 or 2026-27 seasons, with no cost if the Pac-12 absorbs every MWC school, or a cost of upwards of $137.5 million if it takes some but not all MWC schools. But Oregon State and Washington State are focused first on joining an autonomous conference, and the uncertainty surrounding the future of college sports could spark another upheaval."

Draft stock

I don't follow the NFL draft that close other following the Cougs and occasionally tuning in. Here are the combine results and what nfl.com thinks of Hicks and Smith-Wade.


OT: Apple River Nik Miu verdict

Anyone else follow this?

I just saw this come across my news feed. There are some things that aren't sitting well with me:

A juror spoke to the press and stated the following -

The jury had no definitive proof of who initially struck who, but assigned guilt to the defendant.
The jury based their decision partly on the fact that the defendant didn't simply run away after being assaulted - Wisc is not a duty to retreat state.
The jury began deliberations with a guilty verdict already in hand, the only discussion was whether it was with intent or not and there were actually 3 jurors who argued for intent.

I do have sympathy for the family of the young man, but these kids were drunk and stoned and behaving like pack animals and then play the victim when the cornered animal fights back. The kid who filmed the incident CONTINUED to film himself and started screaming "is this real life?" while his friends were dying, further demonstrating the complete and total disconnect from reality these kids have. (remember the actual pedophile Rittenhouse shot calling out for a medic like he was playing a video game?)

Obviously I have an opinion, but I am open for discussion on this case as maybe I don't have all the facts, thought its not from a lack of trying to find them.

A rumored ACC settlement and deal...

I for one, believe this accurate. Make the most sense.

FSU and Clemson to go to SEC in 2025. ACC gets a new TV deal until 2036. My opinion is this opens the door for ACC western expansion...put Cougs and Beavs in the front seat to merge with the ACC.
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If ESPN is thinking strategic, they make that ACC TV deal "pro-rata" to add former Pac-12 teams. I think Utah would come back. ASU and UA, likely depend on other political factors.

Baseball & women’s swimming joining MWC as affiliate members

WSU baseball, women’s swimming joining Mountain West as affiliate members​

Greg WoodsApril 16, 2024 at 12:47 pm
By
The Spokesman-Review
PULLMAN — Washington State’s baseball and women’s swimming teams have a conference home, at least temporarily.

Those programs are joining the Mountain West Conference as affiliate members for the next two seasons, per a news release, providing a landing spot for two of the last WSU programs to find one. The agreement goes into effect on July 1.

“Finding a home for our baseball and women’s swimming programs has been a top priority for our athletic department and we appreciate the efforts of so many to get to this point,” WSU interim athletics director Anne McCoy said via release. “This agreement offers both programs a competitive schedule in a west coast-based conference while providing a championship path for coming seasons.”

As Washington State and Oregon State — the two Pac-12 schools left behind in conference realignment — attempt to rebuild the conference, the schools are using a two-year grace period to enter agreements with other conferences. The Cougars’ football team utilized a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West to provide them with six opponents next fall, while their basketball teams are joining the West Coast Conference on an affiliate basis.

Affiliate status through the NCAA allows for member affiliates to compete for conference and national championships.

Membership fees for WSU were not immediately clear.

Oregon State is going independent in baseball next year, largely thanks to its long history of success — including a national title in 2018 — which gives the program the ability to schedule teams and bring them to campus. WSU doesn’t have that luxury, which is why it’s entering an agreement with the Mountain West.

In total, 10 WSU programs are joining the WCC as affiliate members next season: Men’s and women’s basketball, men’s and women’s cross country, men’s and women’s golf, rowing, soccer, tennis and volleyball.

Greg Woods Washington State beat writer for The Spokesman-Review

Cougar Collective

I'm a bit underwhelmed by the information I see from the Cougar Collective. After saying that I would never give to this, I ponied up a modest donation to the BB matching campaign. Got an acknowledgement, fine there.

Other than that, I find their site to be basically information-free other than exhorting the reader to give, give give. To what? I get that they don't want to overspew information, but how about something? Is the Collective spending or offering money to players (portal and non-portal)? Some idea of levels? Offers to every one, probably in varying amounts? Just the 2 or 3 guys that we really want to keep?

And FB - are they going to sit around and wait for portal jumpers, then offer? Obviously they can't offer/give big bucks to every player, but c'mon, give us something other than "here's a pig in a poke, buy it". How about partner companies/groups? Any specific stories to share about XYZ company directly working with athletes? The only story I have ever read was the one about Mateer partnering with that local deli/bake shop or whatever the hell it was.

Curious to hear from Collective "members" and/or big donors about the information that they may be getting - if any.

Athletics FY 25 budget

First go read the Brand X article on this. So many things to pick on here:
  • Regent's seeming disinterest in the details. I would be all over this shit if I were one. Where's Bill Marler when you need him?
  • The previously budgeted $4M deficit has ballooned to $9M
  • We are going to close the deficit with Pac-12 cash. Well duh
  • Brand X's comment that Chun and Smith's buyouts will "buoy" the FY25 budget by $1.4 million. Uh guys, it is FY24, they are gone, and if the traitors have some clause that lets them defer this to next fiscal year then we are bigger idiots than previously proven
  • We are paying Riley half of what Smith made? And Smith made $1.5M not the $1.2 the article refers to. Wulffian....EWU HC......hmmm
  • We are setting aside $65M of Pac-12 money to rebuild the conference? Don't know if that is Brand X's opinion or if it is documented. But either way, it is complete BS for the Pac-2 to pay teams to join. F-that!
Ok, so let's look at the actual Regent's meeting documents, shall we? (link below). I don't have the time to totally dissect this 400-page document, but:
  • The precipitous enrollment drops (grad and undergrad, all under Schulz's watch) should horrify all Cougs. Page 268
  • Employment figures for FY 23 and 24. Grad down 23, faculty up 27. But fear not! Admin employees up 135, and Classified up 110! Sounds about right with enrollment plunging, eh?
  • Credit Hour totals have fallen 32,000 since the year before Schulz came. Page 279. But the Global Campus is doing well as Pullman plunges. Page 282
  • The old 1%, 3% and 5% budget reduction exercise. Starting on Page 294. Been around for a looong time. Hint (from personal experience with this process) - the colleges, etc. will throw out their best and most golden goose programs as what they would cut first
  • On to Athletics, starting on Pag 299. Lots to digest here
  • Notice that a big budget killer was "admin expense" - $6.1M rather than 4.6M budgeted. Page 301. And they forgot to put brackets around the bowl revenue shortfall of $2.6M. What bowl did they think we were going to?
  • Then, the FY25 Budget. Page 305. Read for yourself. 0-0 in media rights, $20 million extra in Conference money distributions (I'm cool with that backfill), less in scholarships (wait tuition is going up 3%). Less in contributions. FY 24 was originally $10.5M, reduced to $9.5M, down to $7.8M for FY25. Note that Endowment revenue stays at $.9M. How does $9.5M and $.9M reconcile with the $60 million Chun claims to have brought in last year? And go read the other fundraisers' bios - record-setting donations everywhere!
  • Finally, $5 million in salary reductions. And the Regents were not interested in the details. Wow

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