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Upcoming Media Rights Deal from Wilner.....

It is what it is.

What the Pac-12’s new media rights deal could include | Analysis​


Jon Wilner
June 18, 2025

The Pac-12 is on the brink of securing the next piece to its multiyear reclamation project. A media rights deal could be announced this week but should be sealed before the month concludes.

Heck, the agreement could become public before you read the following Hotline predictions. Yes, we’re going there. Where’s the fun in waiting for facts?

The following forecast is based on information and insight collected over the course of months, not up-to-date information provided by sources. (Only a handful of people know the details, and they aren’t talking.)

Our goal is to provide fans with a reasonable range of outcomes in key categories to avoid surprises when the deal becomes public.

And please note: We aren’t plunging into the membership issue here. The conference must add at least one all-sports school by July 1, 2026 to meet certification requirements. (We expect that school to be Texas State.)

Although the Pac-12 could disclose the identity of member No. 9 when it reveals the media deal, our hunch is that decision will be announced separately.

Here we go.

Term length prediction: Five years

Context: The Pac-12’s media rights contract cycle begins next summer when the five Mountain West schools and Gonzaga officially join the conference. A five-year deal would conclude at the end of the 2030-31 competition year.

That’s a critical window for the industry. The Big Ten’s media deal ends in 2030, followed by the expiration of the Big 12’s agreement in 2031. The men’s NCAA tournament and College Football Playoff deals terminate in the spring of 2032. Two years later, the SEC’s deal expires.

We suspect members of the rebuilt Pac-12 are wary of signing anything that locks up their media rights well beyond the early 2030s. They want the flexibility to respond to whatever comes next in conference realignment.

That said, a deal that runs for seven or eight years — but includes an opt-out window after five — is also a possibility.

Valuation prediction: $70 million annually

Context: In our view, any deal that pays between $7 million and $10 million per school annually would fall within a reasonable range. At $70 million, each of the nine members would collect $7.8 million.

But there’s a caveat — two caveats, actually:

— If the ninth member only receives a half-share of the media rights revenue in a given year, a $70 million annual deal would spin off $8.3 million to each of the full-share members.

There are numerous examples of partial-share deals across the land, from Stanford and Cal in the ACC to Oregon and Washington in the Big Ten, and we suspect the Pac-12 will pursue that option, at least for a few years, for its ninth member.

— The Pac-12 is expected to implement a revenue distribution model that encourages investment and rewards success. Similar to the plan implemented by the ACC this year, it could be structured to account for factors like TV ratings and College Football Playoff and NCAA tournament bids. Don’t be surprised if schools at the top end of the revenue chain receive closer to $10 million in media rights in a given year.

One piece of additional context: At $7.8 million annually, the deal would more than double the roughly $3.5 million that Fresno State, Colorado State, Utah State and San Diego State receive from the Mountain West. (Boise State has a separate deal and earns slightly more.)

Network partners prediction: The CW, ESPN and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)

Context: Assuming the deal spins off between $7 million and $10 million per school per year, the network piece is arguably the most interesting element — and perhaps the most important.

Whatever the Pac-12 schools collect in media revenue, they won’t come close to matching counterparts in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. That makes exposure for the product absolutely vital.

The rebuilt conference cannot be irrelevant. It must have a significant portion of games on linear television (either over-the-air or cable networks).

We view a package of football broadcasts on The CW as highly likely, considering the existing partnership for 2024-25, with additional inventory on ESPN and the Turner networks owned by WBD.

That said, don’t be surprised if Fox or CBS is involved instead of, or in addition to, ESPN or WBD. The Pac-12 could have as many as four network partners.

Fans should expect a sizable number of games to air on streaming platforms, as well. That is increasingly the way of the world in college sports, for both football and basketball.

The other component of high interest to the Hotline, which may or may not be addressed in the media rights announcement: the football schedule.

How many games per season will be slotted on Thursday and Friday?

Will the conference play on Sunday or Monday?

Commissioner Teresa Gould has said the Pac-12 entered the media rights process with a “blank slate” approach, and networks are typically willing to pay for the flexibility to place games in unconventional broadcast slots.

Don’t be surprised if the deal includes a twist, or two.

Jon Wilner

Kohberger defense takes more defeats...

Multiple rulings today on defense motions, pretty much all losses for them:

- The surviving roommate gets to testify, and can talk about "bushy eyebrows." If the defense wants to say she was too drunk to remember anything reliably, they have to show that on cross-examination.
- The autism diagnosis is only relevant, and can only be mentioned, if Kohberger himself testifies...which the defense has said they're not planning on.
- Vehicle experts get to testify
- State DNA experts get to testify, but can't refer to "touch DNA"
story

Really, at this point I don't think the defense is really expecting to get anything excluded. What they're doing is creating ample grounds for appeal. They want to have a raft of rulings by the trial court that can be challenged on appeal, and if any of them are found to have been prejudicial, they can get a sentence thrown out or maybe get a new trial. It's not about this judge and this trial...it's about a more sympathetic judge that they can get a different ruling from in 10 years.

Pac-12 braintrust prioritizing exposure over money?

Sounds like it per Jon Canzano:

"When I ask the involved parties of the new-look conference about the media rights distributions, they always downplay the money part. Everyone in college athletics likes and needs money to operate, but I understand what they mean ... the industry insiders keep pointing toward $10 million to $12 million per (Pac-12) school. But if you can get more exposure and a better partner for $8 million to $10 million, you'd jump all over that."

With their Pac-12 nest eggs, I could see the two flagship schools prioritizing partnerships with ESPN, TNT, CBS and so on over a larger media payout from Apple, Netflix and/or Amazon.

Maybe a little surprising Boise and the other G5 call-ups would agree as they have exit fees to pay and likely much smaller available cash reserves. But maybe the MWC evacuees have no say so until they actually officially join the conference in 2026?

New assistant & GM

WSU men’s basketball hires assistant coach, program’s first GM​


Greg Woods
June 13, 2025
The Spokesman-Review

PULLMAN — Washington State has a new coach on staff.

The Cougars have hired Orlando Johnson as a new assistant coach and general manager, according to a Friday release, giving Johnson his first coaching opportunity after a decade-plus professional career as a player. A California native, Johnson grew up playing in the same youth basketball scene as WSU head coach David Riley.

“I’m incredibly excited to be here and be part of this team and staff,” Johnson said via release. “It’s a true honor to step in as general manager, and I’m grateful for the opportunity. Reuniting with Dave, a childhood friend and teammate, makes this experience even more special to start a new beginning here at Wazzu. I look forward to contributing to our roster decisions and supporting the continued development of our student-athletes here on and off the court.”

Johnson, who retired in January after a short stint with a Mongolian professional league called The League, played his college ball for Loyola Marymount and UC Santa Barbara. He was selected in the second round of the 2012 NBA Draft by the Sacramento Kings, who traded Johnson to the Indiana Pacers, with whom he spent two seasons.

In the years that followed, Johnson bounced around the NBA and overseas organizations, playing for a Spanish team called Laboral Kutxa Vitoria, the NBA G-League’s Austin Spurs, a Philippine club named Barangay Ginebra San Miguel and several other organizations, including ones in Russia, China, Lebanon, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Taiwan and Australia.

In parts of five seasons, Johnson appeared in 103 NBA games, averaging 3.2 points and 1.7 rebounds in 10.8 minutes per game, playing in 89 of those games with the Pacers from 2012-2014.

But this will be the coaching debut for Johnson, 36, who grew up in Seaside, California, a smaller town about 115 miles south of San Francisco.

“Orlando is a great addition to our staff and the culture we are building at WSU,” Riley said of Johnson, also via release. “We’ve been friends since we played AAU together growing up. Orlando brings invaluable experience from the professional level and global basketball scene to our player development and Cougar program.”

To make room for Johnson on staff, Riley and the Cougs are shuffling around personnel. Director of Operations Sean Suchomel is departing the program of his own volition for a different job, a WSU spokesperson confirmed to The Spokesman-Review, prompting current assistant coach Blake Fernandez to move into an operations role. That opens up a spot for Johnson on the five-slot assistant coaching staff.

WSU’s other four assistants include Jerry Brown, Donald Brady and Pedro Garcia Rosado (all of whom followed Riley from Eastern Washington to WSU last spring) as well as George Galanopoulos, who joined Riley’s staff last summer after spending the previous season as associate head coach of the G-League’s Rip City Remix, an affiliate of the Portland Trailblazers.

As GM, the first WSU has ever hired, Johnson will also have a hand in roster management, a meaningful role as the House vs. NCAA settlement’s approval paves the way for schools to begin directly compensating players via an annual revenue-sharing pool. It’s unclear what kind of financial commitment WSU is planning on making to the men’s basketball team.

Greg Woods: Washington State beat writer for The Spokesman-Review

Lawsuit(s) mediation tomorrow May 19

So, any thoughts on how this will pan out?

The Hyper-Intelligent Loyal One thinks the MW will offer some concessions on both the poaching fees and the exit fees, but not much. In addition to the dollars themselves, if the MW gives up too much the Pac-? will just turn around and poach UNLV. Especially since MW $ promises to UNLV are highly dependent on the poaching/exit monies.

As I have stated previously, I think the Pac-?'s lawsuit is a joke and should have simply been thrown out. Our arguments are pathetic. On the exit fees, these are standard in all conferences, although I've read where indeed they are often bargained down.

Hey, did you see that?

However, the schedule’s brutality (seven top-25 teams) and road games at Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee, Missouri, and Alabama pose challenges. Historical precedent shows Group of 5-to-SEC quarterback transitions (e.g., Diego Pavia) maintain efficiency, suggesting Mateer can handle the leap. If he sustains top-three SEC performance and low turnovers, a 12-0 season is feasible, positioning Oklahoma for a College Football Playoff berth and a potential SEC title run, as analysts like Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman suggest.

Final Record Prediction: 12-0, with Mateer’s elite play (4,500+ total yards, 48 total TDs, <10 turnovers) and OU’s defensive prowess overcoming the tough schedule, making them a playoff contender.

In other news...

WSU football adds 2026 commitment from 3-star edge Tyler Burnstein | The Seattle Times​


Greg Woods
June 11, 2025
The Spokesman-Review

PULLMAN – Washington State isn’t slowing down building its class of 2026.

The Cougars added their ninth member on Wednesday, securing a commitment from three-star edge rusher Tyler Burnstein, who hails from the Phoenix area.

Listed at 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, Burnstein turned down offers from Arizona State, New Mexico and Nevada, as well as a handful of FCS schools.

Last fall, Burnstein totaled 19 tackles (eight for loss), 5.5 sacks, 20 quarterback hurries, two pass deflections and a 22-yard fumble recovery for Liberty High of Peoria, Arizona. That season, the Lions captured the Open Division state championship, closing the season on a six-game winning streak.

Burnstein, who also held offers from FCS schools Montana, Northern Arizona and North Dakota, received his WSU offer in early May and took his official visit at the beginning of June. He’s the second edge rusher in the class, joining three-star prospect JaVon Joseph, who announced his commitment on Tuesday.

“Excellent skill set for a DE prospect that blends his size, length, and athleticism to be a disruptive playmaker working off the edge,” a Prep Redzone Arizona analyst wrote about Burstein. “He’s got an explosive first step showing good natural bend and initial quickness from the snap to engagement.

“He plays with a relentless motor and demonstrates excellent hand usage, shedding blocks effectively and maintaining good gap discipline.

“Against the run, he’s capable of containing the edge with good lateral movement and pursuit speed. He’s able to collapse the pocket as a pass rusher with a good mix of speed and power moves to get to the QB.”

Burnstein’s commitment amounts the biggest recruiting win of the cycle for WSU, which held off a Power Four foe for the first time in the class of 2026.

Burnstein was a coveted target of nearby Arizona State, which extended him his first offer, which came the summer after his freshman season. Burnstein also attended a number of camps at ASU.

Burnstein is also the son of former ASU player Brent Burnstein, who played defensive end for the Sun Devils from 1992-1996, making a key field-goal block in the 1997 Rose Bowl.

The other eight players in the Cougs’ class were pursued by schools at the Group of Five or lower levels.

The Cougars were also targeting a teammate of Burnstein, three-star defensive lineman Paz St. John, who took his official visit with Burnstein. But on Monday, St. John announced his commitment to Boise State, a future Pac-12 opponent of WSU’s.

The rest of the Cougars’ class of 2026 also includes:

• Three-star QB Hudson Kurland (Lake Oswego, Oregon).

• Three-star edge JaVon Joseph (Oak Ridge, El Dorado Hills, California).

• Three-star WR Hudson Lewis (Timberline, Boise).

• Three-star TE Drew Byrd (Rocky Mountain, Meridian, Idaho).

• Three-star S Bradley Esser (Harrisburg, South Dakota).

• Three-star OL Kington Fotualii (O’Dea, Seattle).

• Three-star DL Jake Jones (Campo Verde, Gilbert, Arizona).

• Three-star ATH Landon Kalsbeck (Dakota Ridge, Littleton, Colorado).


Greg Woods
Washington State beat writer for The Spokesman-Review
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Roster Revenue sharing is here....

WSU AD Anne McCoy issues statement following House settlement​


Greg Woods
June 7, 2025
The Spokesman-Review

PULLMAN — At Washington State and everywhere else in the college athletics landscape, a new era is upon us.

The House vs. NCAA settlement was granted final approval on Friday, paving the way for athletic departments to begin directly paying athletes via an annual revenue-sharing pool, which will be capped at $20.5 million in the first year. It begins on July 1, the same start date as WSU’s fiscal year 2026.

“WSU has been preparing for this moment and will operationalize a budget structure for each of our programs to put the scholarships, academic stipends, and name, image, and likeness (NIL) payments to use where they will be most impactful,” McCoy said in a statement published Saturday. “This programmatic autonomy will ensure that each of our head coaches can maximize the resources available to continue leading as we transition into the new Pac-12 Conference.”

The biggest spenders across the country will fund the full $20.5M and much more, which will be made possible by payments from boosters and NIL collectives, perhaps furthering the gap between top programs and those who can’t spend as much.

WSU will allocate $4.5M for football revenue-sharing, McCoy said in January, indicating that number also includes scholarships. It’s unclear what kind of money that leaves over for true revenue-sharing — and how many spots the school plans to fund, which included the full 85 last season, McCoy said. The Spokesman-Review is attempting to reach McCoy for an interview for next week.

While the Cougars’ $4.5M figure might be a fraction of what the bigger spenders across the country are paying out to their rosters, the number figures to be competitive within the new Pac-12 Conference, which launches beginning with the 2026-27 season. New members include Gonzaga (which, without a football program, will enjoy the benefit of being able to allocate more funds for men’s basketball), Colorado State, Boise State, Fresno State and Utah State.

As of Saturday, the Cougars’ football team is slated to have 114 players for the upcoming season, nine over the roster limits of 105, which are part of the House settlement. That includes 75 players listed on the summer roster, 26 incoming freshmen and 13 transfer players — forcing head coach Jimmy Rogers and Co. to make decisions on how to get to 105 players or fewer.

WSU’s athletics budget for fiscal year 2026 will be $74.4 million, university regents announced on Thursday. That’s about the same as WSU’s fiscal year 2025 budget, but it’s down significantly from the 2024 budget, which was $85M. The Cougars had to pare down their spending in the wake of the traditional Pac-12’s collapse, which took place in August 2023.

When it comes to revenue-sharing distribution on WSU’s football team, much of the decision-making will fall to general manager Ricky Ciccone, who came over from a similar role at Louisiana last season.

“All you’re doing is assigning a dollar amount,” Ciccone said in an interview with the Spokesman-Review. “It used to just be, he’s a one (scholarship), and you had 85 of them. Now you have a dollar amount. So you’re assigning a dollar amount to player X, player Z.”

Greg Woods: Washington State beat writer for The Spokesman-Review

Big Sky is tanned, rested and ready!

The realignment wave that began with thunderous news from SEC country four years ago has touched 11 conferences, altered the future for dozens of schools and shifted the balance of power within the NCAA. When will it end?

In tiny Farmington, Utah, 20 miles north of Salt Lake City along Interstate 15, executives from the Big Sky are pondering that very question.

Will their proud, 61-year-old conference, which thrives in the Football Championship Subdivision, be impacted by the same forces that engorged the SEC and Big Ten, decimated the Pac-12 and restructured so many others?


… and did you see Idaho is ranked 10th? With 2 nationally televised games? I hope WSU is ready.

Article: Congress could soon introduce a very NCAA-friendly bill

In summary,
A preemption of state laws that conflict with rules set by the NCAA and/or its conferences; a prohibition on college athletes being classified as employees; and broad antitrust protection that lines up with the House v. NCAA settlement approved Friday, which could insulate the NCAA and its members from legal challenges of a new salary cap for schools’ direct payments to athletes and attempts to regulate booster spending in the name, image and likeness (NIL) market.

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