2019; we'll be off to a very fast start

[cr8zyncalif]

The case for getting out of the gates quickly this fall:

1.) Coaching staff quality. Leach running the O and Claeys running the D is probably even better than Price/Zimmer...certainly no worse. And the mark of the assistant's capabilities can be seen from how well we did last year.
2.) Lack of turn over in the coaching staff. We will be prepared.
3.) Number of returning starters. Lots of numbers get thrown around, but they miss two important points: a.) Our WR depth and spreading around of the catches means that there is a full complement of receivers who have significant PT. They may not have all been listed as a starter, but the distribution of PT means that there are a pile of returners at WR. b.) We don't count McDougle as a returning starter, though he started as a true frosh at W Virginia. Long story short, we are even better off in this category than the publicity would suggest.
4.) While not everyone agrees with me, I would argue that Houston is the perfect credible non-con game to have in a year when we have a good team. And playing in Texas means exposure.

I expect us to be 4-0 heading into Utah for the toughest game of the year, tougher than even the Apple Cup (though that will be 2nd toughest). If we can beat Utah to go 5-0, I expect to be undefeated going into the UW game.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

The case for getting out of the gates quickly this fall:

1.) Coaching staff quality. Leach running the O and Claeys running the D is probably even better than Price/Zimmer...certainly no worse. And the mark of the assistant's capabilities can be seen from how well we did last year.
2.) Lack of turn over in the coaching staff. We will be prepared.
3.) Number of returning starters. Lots of numbers get thrown around, but they miss two important points: a.) Our WR depth and spreading around of the catches means that there is a full complement of receivers who have significant PT. They may not have all been listed as a starter, but the distribution of PT means that there are a pile of returners at WR. b.) We don't count McDougle as a returning starter, though he started as a true frosh at W Virginia. Long story short, we are even better off in this category than the publicity would suggest.
4.) While not everyone agrees with me, I would argue that Houston is the perfect credible non-con game to have in a year when we have a good team. And playing in Texas means exposure.

I expect us to be 4-0 heading into Utah for the toughest game of the year, tougher than even the Apple Cup (though that will be 2nd toughest). If we can beat Utah to go 5-0, I expect to be undefeated going into the UW game.

I've seen the opinion out there that both Utah and WSU will be in the Top 15 when they face off.

 

[random soul]

The case for getting out of the gates quickly this fall:

1.) Coaching staff quality. Leach running the O and Claeys running the D is probably even better than Price/Zimmer...certainly no worse. And the mark of the assistant's capabilities can be seen from how well we did last year.
2.) Lack of turn over in the coaching staff. We will be prepared.
3.) Number of returning starters. Lots of numbers get thrown around, but they miss two important points: a.) Our WR depth and spreading around of the catches means that there is a full complement of receivers who have significant PT. They may not have all been listed as a starter, but the distribution of PT means that there are a pile of returners at WR. b.) We don't count McDougle as a returning starter, though he started as a true frosh at W Virginia. Long story short, we are even better off in this category than the publicity would suggest.
4.) While not everyone agrees with me, I would argue that Houston is the perfect credible non-con game to have in a year when we have a good team. And playing in Texas means exposure.

I expect us to be 4-0 heading into Utah for the toughest game of the year, tougher than even the Apple Cup (though that will be 2nd toughest). If we can beat Utah to go 5-0, I expect to be undefeated going into the UW game.

On paper Utah would probably be the toughest game we have. The Utes would be considered a favorite to win the South and they are hard to beat in Salt Lake. But even when we have bad teams we inexplicably beat them. To me the game that trips us up is the trip to Cal sandwiched between Oregon and Stanford. If we get run out of the stadium in a game this year, it might happen then.

 

[moxeecoug]

You are right. Cal has a way of ambushing us and taking our momentum away

 

[YakiCoug]

You are right. Cal has a way of ambushing us and taking our momentum away

Cal's defense will bring it, no doubt.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Make Cal defend the run between the tackles. Let’s see how well they do with 7 in coverage.

 

[CougPatrol]

The game at Houston is going to be very difficult, certainly as difficult as most road P12 games.

 

[BiggsCoug]

The game at Houston is going to be very difficult, certainly as difficult as most road P12 games.

I think itll be a few years before UH gets to its best team. Hiring DH was a great move. Itll be interesting how quickly he can get them up to speed.

FWIW, Houston may be the most talent rich city in the nation. Schools with enrollments of 3500+ are the norm. You have teams with 50+ seniors on the roster. Maybe 300 kids in the program. Football is a diff animal down there.

 

[GrayOnGray]

It's easy to forget just how close that Utah game was last year. Winston's crazy move sealed the win after a number of dumb Utah penalties stymied what was a serious drive to put us behind with limited time left. That game, in Utah, could go either way. GM2 to Winston was the play of the year for me. Unforgettable.

The other game I would throw out there is Oregon. I think we beat the Huskies this year. Oregon however, might have us circled on their calendar, especially after the way they dawged it on Prime Time. We can beat them too, but don't know if we can do it five in a row.

Edited for typos.

 

[kayak15]

It's easy to forget just how close that Utah game was last year. Winston's crazy move sealed the win after a number of dumb Utah penalties stymied what was a serious drive to put us behind with limited time left. That game, in Utah, could go either way. GM2 to Winston was the play of the year for me. Unforgettable.

The other game I would throw out there is Oregon. I think we beat the Huskies this year. Oregon however, might have us circled on their calendar, especially after the way they dawged it on Prime Time. We can beat them too, but don't know if we can do it five in a row.

Edited for typos.

Agree completely about last year's Utah game. Winston's catch and run really saved our bacon. We were losing that game and lucked out for a change. And that was at home. This year, as you mentioned, is on their own turf.

Another game that has me a bit worried is the UCLA contest. Chip Kelly knows what he is doing, has a talented roster- if one believes the recruiting ratings- and now has had another year to put his scheme in place. They won't be a 3-9 team this year. They may well catch us looking a week ahead to the Utah game. Makes me a touch nervous about the outcome.

Honestly, the only games that do not concern me are New Mexico State, Northern Colorado and the Beavs. On the other hand, I thought that Portland State was a slam dunk. But what do I know? Our history has shown that we can screw up and lose to anyone. May well be an interesting schedule coming up.

 

[425cougfan]

Agree completely about last year's Utah game. Winston's catch and run really saved our bacon. We were losing that game and lucked out for a change. And that was at home. This year, as you mentioned, is on their own turf.

Another game that has me a bit worried is the UCLA contest. Chip Kelly knows what he is doing, has a talented roster- if one believes the recruiting ratings- and now has had another year to put his scheme in place. They won't be a 3-9 team this year. They may well catch us looking a week ahead to the Utah game. Makes me a touch nervous about the outcome.

Honestly, the only games that do not concern me are New Mexico State, Northern Colorado and the Beavs. On the other hand, I thought that Portland State was a slam dunk. But what do I know? Our history has shown that we can screw up and lose to anyone. May well be an interesting schedule coming up.

This is how I feel about the schedule ... I am not that comfortable reflexively picking 9 or 10 wins, even with the 11 last year and what we have coming back, because I don't really feel great about any of the games other than those three. They're all tough in some way. Our team could be pretty solid, perhaps even one of the best at WSU in the past 15 years, and finish 8-5 (8-4 regular season and a bowl loss).

Let's look at all of them quickly:

New Mexico State: easy W

Northern Colorado: easy W

@Houston: should win, but a de facto road game 2000 miles away against Holgorsen and a top-10 offense from last year isn't "easy." Hopefully Holgorsen is going through an adjustment period and their defense is as bad this year as it looked last year.

UCLA: on paper, they'll have more talent, and Chip should have them better this year -- should win, but certainly not a slam dunk

@Utah: tough one, as noted, but I feel better about this than the AC for obvious reasons

Bye

@ASU: all WA teams tend to struggle in Tempe. We're the better team, I suspect, but Herm's weird CEO-style approach paid off last year more than expected and they'll be a tough out.

Colorado: should be a win, but Shenault is still there. One of our easier Pac-12 games, but not a gimme.

@Oregon: I think this is the year they finally get us, having hired most of our staff, with the game in their house, and with an ostensible top-3 draft pick at QB. Hope not, and I think Gubrud, if the guy, will be particuarly motivated to beat these bastards, as will most of the roster, but you can bet Oregon will be highly motivated for this one as well. Our beating their asses every year has to really get to those guys and you know this is circled on their calendars.

@Cal: you guys covered above, but hard to feel good about this one.

Stanford: should win, but similarly to some of the above, hard to see calling a game against any Stanford team in the last 10 years an easy W.

Oregon State: should win easily

@UW: hope this is the year, but history doesn't bode well

My point isn't that we're going to lose all of these questionable games, but that it's hard to count on winning games against, e.g., Stanford, UCLA, Cal on the road, Oregon on the road, etc., or even the road game against Houston -- pretty easily could drop 4 games and still be a pretty good team.

 

[wazzubruce]

I really like our chances going into each game this year. I could not have said that in the past, given our history. Leach is instilling a new history at WSU and we've been winning quite a few close games. I like our chances in all close games.

 

[random soul]

I really like our chances going into each game this year. I could not have said that in the past, given our history. Leach is instilling a new history at WSU and we've been winning quite a few close games. I like our chances in all close games.

A lot of that is also Falk and Minshew. We've had two clutch QBs in a row, and won a lot of close games thanks to their play in tough situations

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Wow! A good thread without a lot of personality BS. Virtually every poster who expressed an opinion had a reason to do so. My short take on the schedule, since 425 started that ball rolling:

NMSU & N Col...nothing to say here.
Houston. Tough place to play and a pretty good team. But a new coach who will understand our O (but is not the DC) and who will not have his system fully in place. Realize also that we are likely to understand his system, too, and our DC will be the best DC on the field. Not a slam dunk, but a win.
UCLA. Chip would have to be a complete wizard to turn around that mess in 2 years. He made some progress last year, but a lot of that was simply relief for the players. This year they have to not just buy in, but execute. A win unless we are overconfident.
Utah. We will be lucky to win this game. The fickle finger of fate has been on our side more often than not against Utah. They have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory several times recently with bonehead plays. I would expect the Utes to be favored by at least 3 going into the game, and I expect a defensive barn burner. Flip a coin as to who will win.
ASU. The bye to prep for this game will help, and the Tempe factor has not been as severe in recent years. A win.
Colorado. If we show up ready to play, we win. This one is on the coaches to get the guys ready.
Oregon. There is no doubt that they will be motivated. However, we get them right after their UW game (sound familiar?) and they will not be able to look ahead. The UO/UW game is more of a blood sport game than the Apple Cup, and any game immediately after the Ducks play UW is the toughest game for the Duck staff in terms of getting the team ready. I see us playing a motivated and athletically talented but not fully prepared team for win # 5.
Cal. The traditional trap game for the Cougs when things are going well for us. And they might have the best D in the league this season; certainly will be in the top 3. I'll even say they might have the best chance of dropping 7 and defending Coug Air of any team in the PAC. As Biggs said, we need to run on them because if we let them drop 8 we will be hurting. I think we win this one...just as close as last year.
Stanford. Unless the Cardinal show something unexpected, they will be fighting OSU for the basement this year in the north. And I expect Cal to take them in the big game. Win.
OSU. If everybody stays healthy and they have a QB who can complete a respectable percentage of his passes without too many interceptions, the Beavs will not be a pushover. They already have maybe the best returning halfback in the league, and they will use him. But they won't have all the pieces that they need to win a lot of games, though I expect them to pick up an upset or two. Win.
UW. If everything plays out as predicted above, we will be the feature game for Friday TV and will get a massive national audience (I can hear it now: "Is this the year that Leach beats Peterson??"). I expect UW to have 3 losses at that point, so depending upon what Oregon has done with their season, and how we did against Utah, this game will probably determine whether we or the Ducks win the north.

 

[etowncoug]

I see us as able to win every game on the schedule, but we'll only be super confident for NMST, No CO, Colorado, and Oregon St.

UCLA is tough because Kelly is a good coach but it's early enough in the season where we should win a tough game.
Utah will be a war, but Leach has faired well against his alma maters rival. I'm predicting another game like 2014 or 2018.
ASU in the desert is probably the scariest game on the schedule. We should be the better team, but Herm got his squad up for home games like this last year.
Oregon the week after UW doesn't scare me. I feel they will be broken by this point in the season or riding high as a top 10 team and primed for an upset.
Cal is also scary. We need to play our best in order to win this one, but they can't beat us if we play our best.
Stanford at home is a game we should be able to win. They circled this game last year, so I think we'll get their best shot again.
UW is difficult. We need a game plan for brutal weather. Allowing UW to drop 8 in crap weather is a recipe for disaster.

 

[Coug95man2]

Injuries. There is no way to gauge how important our S&C is. While we have CERTAINLY had our share of injuries, the players have been able to play through them or our depth has saved the day. But our S&C has been monumental.
And how other teams deal with the same issue will be pivotal. We can play with just about any dog in the pen. But injuries, or lack-there-of, will be the tipping point for all of those "close" games outlined above, IMHO.