Okay so there has been much discussed about the Apple Cup and while individual perceptions are great the real truth lays in the numbers for why the Apple Cup has gone the way it has over the years.
To locate the key issue between the programs we have to look at the roster level of both teams over the years. Here is WSU / UW recruiting rankings (from 247)
Year - WSU / UW
2000 #44 / #29
2001 #51 / #15
2002 #48 / #17
2003 #51 / #20
2004 #22 / # 25
2005 #43 / #68
2006 #45 / #32
2007 #52 / # 38
2008 #66 / #19
2009 #63 / # 75
2010 #65 / #19
2011 #68 /#24
2012 #58 / # 24
2013 #50 / #18
2014 #53 / #38
2015 #42 / #26
2016 #56 / #29
2017 #44 / #22
2018 #45 / #16
2019 (currently) #52 / #17
Now there are a few things to note in here.
UW consistently recruits in the mid twenties to 30s while we recruit in the 40s-50s
In 2005 / 2009 UW had 2 anomaly classes one that ranked #68 in 2005 and one that was #75 in 2009. These are what “disaster classes” actually look like. And 3 years later both of these classes hit like time bombs in 2008 / 2012. Both Apple Cup victories for us. (Which should sort of explain those Apple Cups)
Now a roster is made up of multiple classes so it is best to look at the cumulative average of 5 classes for a year. I’ve talked about this on here before and it should be common sense, but a team of year X is made up of class X plus the previous 4 years. This allows for RS seniors to make their impact on the current year.
Taking the cumulative average of the previous 5 classes the picture begins to become clearer.
2004 year WSU - 43.2 / 21.2. Diff UW+22
2005 year WSU - 43 / 29 diff UW +14
2006 year WSU - 41.8 / 32.4 UW + 9.4
2007 year WSU - 42.6 / 36.6 UW + 6
2008 year WSU - 45.6 / 36.4 UW + 9.2
2009 year WSU - 53.8 / 46.4 UW + 7.4
2010 year WSU - 58.2 / 36.6 UW + 21.6
2011 year WSU - 62.8 / 30.2 UW + 32.6
2012 year WSU - 64 / 32.2 UW + 31.8
2013 year WSU - 60.8 / 32 UW +28.8
2014 year WSU - 58.8 / 24.6 UW +34.2
2015 year WSU - 54.2 / 26 UW + 28.2
2016 year WSU - 51.8 / 27 UW + 24.8
2017 year WSU - 49 / 26.6 UW + 22.4
2018 year WSU - 48 / 26.2 UW + 21.8
2019 (TBD) year WSU - 47.8 / 22 UW (TBD)
Looking at the disparity in cumulative recruiting classes when we were closest to UW in terms of overall roster was 2005-2009.
Now if this were true then we should have seen a variation in the number of Apple Cup wins.
Which is EXACTLY what happened. In 2004,2005,2007,2008
The only time in our history that we won 4 out of 5 Apple Cups.
Now there were several things that played in our favor during that time. UW coaching turnover / disaster with Gilbertson/Tyrone and our success of the early 2000 era.
Those two things (the turmoil from UW/poorer recruiting / and our success (better recruiting)
Manifested itself a few years later with the span from 2004-2008.
In 2009 the cumulative average of the rosters was the closest they had ever been, but this was our massive beyond massive blunder.
We had hired Wulff and UW hired Sark.
Despite the close parity Wulff “gutted the team” and was “doing it the right way” sending us into a nose dive recruiting and Sark basically righted the sinking UW ship.
In fact no person saved the Mutts program more than Sark and Wulff.
Wulff sent us backpedaling while Sark propelled UW back to recruiting solidly and it shows in the numbers.
In fact the gap had widened in just 3 short years from 2009 +7.4 UW cumulative difference to a whopping +32.6 in 2011.
The Sark/Wulff split was one of the worst things to happen in parity for us.
In 2012 when Leach took over the gap dropped to 31.8 and we were able to snag an Apple Cup due to the 0-12 Tyrone bomb #79 recruiting class for UW that matured in 2012, but other than that it was uphill grueling March back towards parity.
Leach has steadily closed the gap getting us to within +21.8 UW cumulative differential.
But what we can learn from history is that +15 or lower is where things break our way.
We are getting there, but UW and Petersen are making it harder because he bumped them up a little after Sark making the step up even steeper.
Good news is the gap is indeed closing.
Bad news is that the gap is still a little further out than we need to consistently win Apple Cups.
To locate the key issue between the programs we have to look at the roster level of both teams over the years. Here is WSU / UW recruiting rankings (from 247)
Year - WSU / UW
2000 #44 / #29
2001 #51 / #15
2002 #48 / #17
2003 #51 / #20
2004 #22 / # 25
2005 #43 / #68
2006 #45 / #32
2007 #52 / # 38
2008 #66 / #19
2009 #63 / # 75
2010 #65 / #19
2011 #68 /#24
2012 #58 / # 24
2013 #50 / #18
2014 #53 / #38
2015 #42 / #26
2016 #56 / #29
2017 #44 / #22
2018 #45 / #16
2019 (currently) #52 / #17
Now there are a few things to note in here.
UW consistently recruits in the mid twenties to 30s while we recruit in the 40s-50s
In 2005 / 2009 UW had 2 anomaly classes one that ranked #68 in 2005 and one that was #75 in 2009. These are what “disaster classes” actually look like. And 3 years later both of these classes hit like time bombs in 2008 / 2012. Both Apple Cup victories for us. (Which should sort of explain those Apple Cups)
Now a roster is made up of multiple classes so it is best to look at the cumulative average of 5 classes for a year. I’ve talked about this on here before and it should be common sense, but a team of year X is made up of class X plus the previous 4 years. This allows for RS seniors to make their impact on the current year.
Taking the cumulative average of the previous 5 classes the picture begins to become clearer.
2004 year WSU - 43.2 / 21.2. Diff UW+22
2005 year WSU - 43 / 29 diff UW +14
2006 year WSU - 41.8 / 32.4 UW + 9.4
2007 year WSU - 42.6 / 36.6 UW + 6
2008 year WSU - 45.6 / 36.4 UW + 9.2
2009 year WSU - 53.8 / 46.4 UW + 7.4
2010 year WSU - 58.2 / 36.6 UW + 21.6
2011 year WSU - 62.8 / 30.2 UW + 32.6
2012 year WSU - 64 / 32.2 UW + 31.8
2013 year WSU - 60.8 / 32 UW +28.8
2014 year WSU - 58.8 / 24.6 UW +34.2
2015 year WSU - 54.2 / 26 UW + 28.2
2016 year WSU - 51.8 / 27 UW + 24.8
2017 year WSU - 49 / 26.6 UW + 22.4
2018 year WSU - 48 / 26.2 UW + 21.8
2019 (TBD) year WSU - 47.8 / 22 UW (TBD)
Looking at the disparity in cumulative recruiting classes when we were closest to UW in terms of overall roster was 2005-2009.
Now if this were true then we should have seen a variation in the number of Apple Cup wins.
Which is EXACTLY what happened. In 2004,2005,2007,2008
The only time in our history that we won 4 out of 5 Apple Cups.
Now there were several things that played in our favor during that time. UW coaching turnover / disaster with Gilbertson/Tyrone and our success of the early 2000 era.
Those two things (the turmoil from UW/poorer recruiting / and our success (better recruiting)
Manifested itself a few years later with the span from 2004-2008.
In 2009 the cumulative average of the rosters was the closest they had ever been, but this was our massive beyond massive blunder.
We had hired Wulff and UW hired Sark.
Despite the close parity Wulff “gutted the team” and was “doing it the right way” sending us into a nose dive recruiting and Sark basically righted the sinking UW ship.
In fact no person saved the Mutts program more than Sark and Wulff.
Wulff sent us backpedaling while Sark propelled UW back to recruiting solidly and it shows in the numbers.
In fact the gap had widened in just 3 short years from 2009 +7.4 UW cumulative difference to a whopping +32.6 in 2011.
The Sark/Wulff split was one of the worst things to happen in parity for us.
In 2012 when Leach took over the gap dropped to 31.8 and we were able to snag an Apple Cup due to the 0-12 Tyrone bomb #79 recruiting class for UW that matured in 2012, but other than that it was uphill grueling March back towards parity.
Leach has steadily closed the gap getting us to within +21.8 UW cumulative differential.
But what we can learn from history is that +15 or lower is where things break our way.
We are getting there, but UW and Petersen are making it harder because he bumped them up a little after Sark making the step up even steeper.
Good news is the gap is indeed closing.
Bad news is that the gap is still a little further out than we need to consistently win Apple Cups.
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