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Apple Cup History and a Lesson in Parity.

Cougatron

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Oct 17, 2012
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Okay so there has been much discussed about the Apple Cup and while individual perceptions are great the real truth lays in the numbers for why the Apple Cup has gone the way it has over the years.

To locate the key issue between the programs we have to look at the roster level of both teams over the years. Here is WSU / UW recruiting rankings (from 247)

Year - WSU / UW

2000 #44 / #29
2001 #51 / #15
2002 #48 / #17
2003 #51 / #20
2004 #22 / # 25
2005 #43 / #68
2006 #45 / #32
2007 #52 / # 38
2008 #66 / #19
2009 #63 / # 75
2010 #65 / #19
2011 #68 /#24
2012 #58 / # 24
2013 #50 / #18
2014 #53 / #38
2015 #42 / #26
2016 #56 / #29
2017 #44 / #22
2018 #45 / #16
2019 (currently) #52 / #17

Now there are a few things to note in here.
UW consistently recruits in the mid twenties to 30s while we recruit in the 40s-50s

In 2005 / 2009 UW had 2 anomaly classes one that ranked #68 in 2005 and one that was #75 in 2009. These are what “disaster classes” actually look like. And 3 years later both of these classes hit like time bombs in 2008 / 2012. Both Apple Cup victories for us. (Which should sort of explain those Apple Cups)

Now a roster is made up of multiple classes so it is best to look at the cumulative average of 5 classes for a year. I’ve talked about this on here before and it should be common sense, but a team of year X is made up of class X plus the previous 4 years. This allows for RS seniors to make their impact on the current year.

Taking the cumulative average of the previous 5 classes the picture begins to become clearer.


2004 year WSU - 43.2 / 21.2. Diff UW+22
2005 year WSU - 43 / 29 diff UW +14
2006 year WSU - 41.8 / 32.4 UW + 9.4
2007 year WSU - 42.6 / 36.6 UW + 6
2008 year WSU - 45.6 / 36.4 UW + 9.2
2009 year WSU - 53.8 / 46.4 UW + 7.4
2010 year WSU - 58.2 / 36.6 UW + 21.6
2011 year WSU - 62.8 / 30.2 UW + 32.6
2012 year WSU - 64 / 32.2 UW + 31.8
2013 year WSU - 60.8 / 32 UW +28.8
2014 year WSU - 58.8 / 24.6 UW +34.2
2015 year WSU - 54.2 / 26 UW + 28.2
2016 year WSU - 51.8 / 27 UW + 24.8
2017 year WSU - 49 / 26.6 UW + 22.4
2018 year WSU - 48 / 26.2 UW + 21.8
2019 (TBD) year WSU - 47.8 / 22 UW (TBD)

Looking at the disparity in cumulative recruiting classes when we were closest to UW in terms of overall roster was 2005-2009.

Now if this were true then we should have seen a variation in the number of Apple Cup wins.

Which is EXACTLY what happened. In 2004,2005,2007,2008

The only time in our history that we won 4 out of 5 Apple Cups.

Now there were several things that played in our favor during that time. UW coaching turnover / disaster with Gilbertson/Tyrone and our success of the early 2000 era.

Those two things (the turmoil from UW/poorer recruiting / and our success (better recruiting)

Manifested itself a few years later with the span from 2004-2008.

In 2009 the cumulative average of the rosters was the closest they had ever been, but this was our massive beyond massive blunder.

We had hired Wulff and UW hired Sark.

Despite the close parity Wulff “gutted the team” and was “doing it the right way” sending us into a nose dive recruiting and Sark basically righted the sinking UW ship.

In fact no person saved the Mutts program more than Sark and Wulff.

Wulff sent us backpedaling while Sark propelled UW back to recruiting solidly and it shows in the numbers.

In fact the gap had widened in just 3 short years from 2009 +7.4 UW cumulative difference to a whopping +32.6 in 2011.

The Sark/Wulff split was one of the worst things to happen in parity for us.

In 2012 when Leach took over the gap dropped to 31.8 and we were able to snag an Apple Cup due to the 0-12 Tyrone bomb #79 recruiting class for UW that matured in 2012, but other than that it was uphill grueling March back towards parity.

Leach has steadily closed the gap getting us to within +21.8 UW cumulative differential.

But what we can learn from history is that +15 or lower is where things break our way.

We are getting there, but UW and Petersen are making it harder because he bumped them up a little after Sark making the step up even steeper.

Good news is the gap is indeed closing.
Bad news is that the gap is still a little further out than we need to consistently win Apple Cups.
 
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Okay so there has been much discussed about the Apple Cup and while individual perceptions are great the real truth lays in the numbers for why the Apple Cup has gone the way it has over the years.

To locate the key issue between the programs we have to look at the roster level of both teams over the years. Here is WSU / UW recruiting rankings (from 247)

Year - WSU / UW

2000 #44 / #29
2001 #51 / #15
2002 #48 / #17
2003 #51 / #20
2004 #22 / # 25
2005 #43 / #68
2006 #45 / #32
2007 #52 / # 38
2008 #66 / #19
2009 #63 / # 75
2010 #65 / #19
2011 #68 /#24
2012 #58 / # 24
2013 #50 / #18
2014 #53 / #38
2015 #42 / #26
2016 #56 / #29
2017 #44 / #22
2018 #45 / #16
2019 (currently) #52 / #17

Now there are a few things to note in here.
UW consistently recruits in the mid twenties to 30s while we recruit in the 40s-50s

In 2005 / 2009 UW had 2 anomaly classes one that ranked #68 in 2005 and one that was #75 in 2009. These are what “disaster classes” actually look like. And 3 years later both of these classes hit like time bombs in 2008 / 2012. Both Apple Cup victories for us. (Which should sort of explain those Apple Cups)

Now a roster is made up of multiple classes so it is best to look at the cumulative average of 5 classes for a year. I’ve talked about this on here before and it should be common sense, but a team of year X is made up of class X plus the previous 4 years. This allows for RS seniors to make their impact on the current year.

Taking the cumulative average of the previous 5 classes the picture begins to become clearer.


2004 year WSU - 43.2 / 21.2. Diff UW+22
2005 year WSU - 43 / 29 diff UW +14
2006 year WSU - 41.8 / 32.4 UW + 9.4
2007 year WSU - 42.6 / 36.6 UW + 6
2008 year WSU - 45.6 / 36.4 UW + 9.2
2009 year WSU - 53.8 / 46.4 UW + 7.4
2010 year WSU - 58.2 / 36.6 UW + 21.6
2011 year WSU - 62.8 / 30.2 UW + 32.6
2012 year WSU - 64 / 32.2 UW + 31.8
2013 year WSU - 60.8 / 32 UW +28.8
2014 year WSU - 58.8 / 24.6 UW +34.2
2015 year WSU - 54.2 / 26 UW + 28.2
2016 year WSU - 51.8 / 27 UW + 24.8
2017 year WSU - 49 / 26.6 UW + 22.4
2018 year WSU - 48 / 26.2 UW + 21.8
2019 (TBD) year WSU - 47.8 / 22 UW (TBD)

Looking at the disparity in cumulative recruiting classes when we were closest to UW in terms of overall roster was 2005-2009.

Now if this were true then we should have seen a variation in the number of Apple Cup wins.

Which is EXACTLY what happened. In 2004,2005,2007,2008

The only time in our history that we won 4 out of 5 applecups.
This is in no way to dismiss this because it is partially true. However, a legitimate study was actually done on star/class ratings vs team performance. It found less than half (but still 45%) of performance results (variance) can be attributed to recruiting. That means more than half is explained by other factors: injuries, coaching, weather, luck, effort, culture etc.

One other note for all the maniacs who still like the Seattle game or scheduling big name opponents: roughly half of recruiting success can be explained by a team’s late season wins and losses. This means your best shot at program building is protecting wins at all costs, pretty clearly including forgoing home games for Seattle “exposure” or arranging an “exciting” home and home series with Auburn et al. Better to be forced to play the exciting games in the postseason than drop them in September.

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6442/7fa980b8c3b1d113d3bf172808c8bc35dfdf.pdf
 
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So whatever people want to talk about scheme or blah blah this or blah blah that. The real truth of the Apple Cup lays in those numbers.
 
This is in no way to dismiss this because it is partially true. However, a legitimate study was actually done on star/class ratings vs team performance. It found less than half (but still 45%) of performance results (variance) can be attributed to recruiting. That means more than half is explained by other factors: injuries, coaching, weather, luck, effort, culture etc.

One other note for all the maniacs who still like the Seattle game or scheduling big name opponents: roughly half of recruiting success can be explained by a team’s late season wins and losses. This means your best shot at program building is protecting wins at all costs, pretty clearly including forgoing home games for Seattle “exposure” or arranging an “exciting” home and home series with Auburn et al. Better to be forced to play the exciting games in the postseason than drop them in September.

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6442/7fa980b8c3b1d113d3bf172808c8bc35dfdf.pdf

This is interesting, also the extra practices attributed to bowl teams helps a lot which is something we never capitalized on when the parity gap was closed. Had we gone to basic bowls after the Holliday bowl we could have pressed the gap we had closed.
 
So whatever people want to talk about scheme or blah blah this or blah blah that. The real truth of the Apple Cup lays in those numbers.

Well how do you suggest we make up the difference in recruiting rankings? Also, please do share how the worse coach in the world to you closed the gap, and won 3/4 Apple Cups, and not for a personal foul penalty in 84 it would have been 4/4.
 
Well how do you suggest we make up the difference in recruiting rankings? Also, please do share how the worse coach in the world to you closed the gap, and won 3/4 Apple Cups, and not for a personal foul penalty in 84 it would have been 4/4.

How we make up the difference in rankings is we continue to improve recruiting incrementally and hope that UW has some sort of turmoil in the program that hurts theirs.

All we can do is to continue to close the gap.

From 2012 the gap was 31.8, this year it was 21.8 that’s a gap close of 10 in our favor.

If a gap of 15 is the magic number and we are 6.8 away and we are closing about 1.4 / year (7 years to close 10) then we are currently about 4 years away. That’s on our current trajectory.

If we have bettee growth than what we have had then it will be shorter, but on our current path 4 years would put us in the striking parity range for consistent Apple Cup wins.

Walden who is the worst coach in the world. Played the only card he could in his .333 win percentage career which was move the rivalry game and feed off of the emotion/newness because he actually can’t coach worth a sh*t. It was all he could muster and still he went 3-6 in Apple Cups and stupid people like yourself think he’s great. He wasn’t and the move in the long run hurt WSU because of the revenue disparity. Walden is the definition of a snake oil salesman. What person in the HISTORY of athletics makes a career out of losing most of the time and beating a rival 1/3 of the time? Walden. And only stupid people like you keep drinking the Kool aid. He sucked, but if you aren’t smart enough to know he’s a bullsh*tter i’m sure he just seems like magic because he told you he was magic.
 
Well how do you suggest we make up the difference in recruiting rankings? Also, please do share how the worse coach in the world to you closed the gap, and won 3/4 Apple Cups, and not for a personal foul penalty in 84 it would have been 4/4.

Lower academic entrance requirements and rampant steroid use.
 
Ed's empty head is swimming right now.


Okay so there has been much discussed about the Apple Cup and while individual perceptions are great the real truth lays in the numbers for why the Apple Cup has gone the way it has over the years.

To locate the key issue between the programs we have to look at the roster level of both teams over the years. Here is WSU / UW recruiting rankings (from 247)

Year - WSU / UW

2000 #44 / #29
2001 #51 / #15
2002 #48 / #17
2003 #51 / #20
2004 #22 / # 25
2005 #43 / #68
2006 #45 / #32
2007 #52 / # 38
2008 #66 / #19
2009 #63 / # 75
2010 #65 / #19
2011 #68 /#24
2012 #58 / # 24
2013 #50 / #18
2014 #53 / #38
2015 #42 / #26
2016 #56 / #29
2017 #44 / #22
2018 #45 / #16
2019 (currently) #52 / #17

Now there are a few things to note in here.
UW consistently recruits in the mid twenties to 30s while we recruit in the 40s-50s

In 2005 / 2009 UW had 2 anomaly classes one that ranked #68 in 2005 and one that was #75 in 2009. These are what “disaster classes” actually look like. And 3 years later both of these classes hit like time bombs in 2008 / 2012. Both Apple Cup victories for us. (Which should sort of explain those Apple Cups)

Now a roster is made up of multiple classes so it is best to look at the cumulative average of 5 classes for a year. I’ve talked about this on here before and it should be common sense, but a team of year X is made up of class X plus the previous 4 years. This allows for RS seniors to make their impact on the current year.

Taking the cumulative average of the previous 5 classes the picture begins to become clearer.


2004 year WSU - 43.2 / 21.2. Diff UW+22
2005 year WSU - 43 / 29 diff UW +14
2006 year WSU - 41.8 / 32.4 UW + 9.4
2007 year WSU - 42.6 / 36.6 UW + 6
2008 year WSU - 45.6 / 36.4 UW + 9.2
2009 year WSU - 53.8 / 46.4 UW + 7.4
2010 year WSU - 58.2 / 36.6 UW + 21.6
2011 year WSU - 62.8 / 30.2 UW + 32.6
2012 year WSU - 64 / 32.2 UW + 31.8
2013 year WSU - 60.8 / 32 UW +28.8
2014 year WSU - 58.8 / 24.6 UW +34.2
2015 year WSU - 54.2 / 26 UW + 28.2
2016 year WSU - 51.8 / 27 UW + 24.8
2017 year WSU - 49 / 26.6 UW + 22.4
2018 year WSU - 48 / 26.2 UW + 21.8
2019 (TBD) year WSU - 47.8 / 22 UW (TBD)

Looking at the disparity in cumulative recruiting classes when we were closest to UW in terms of overall roster was 2005-2009.

Now if this were true then we should have seen a variation in the number of Apple Cup wins.

Which is EXACTLY what happened. In 2004,2005,2007,2008

The only time in our history that we won 4 out of 5 Apple Cups.

Now there were several things that played in our favor during that time. UW coaching turnover / disaster with Gilbertson/Tyrone and our success of the early 2000 era.

Those two things (the turmoil from UW/poorer recruiting / and our success (better recruiting)

Manifested itself a few years later with the span from 2004-2008.

In 2009 the cumulative average of the rosters was the closest they had ever been, but this was our massive beyond massive blunder.

We had hired Wulff and UW hired Sark.

Despite the close parity Wulff “gutted the team” and was “doing it the right way” sending us into a nose dive recruiting and Sark basically righted the sinking UW ship.

In fact no person saved the Mutts program more than Sark and Wulff.

Wulff sent us backpedaling while Sark propelled UW back to recruiting solidly and it shows in the numbers.

In fact the gap had widened in just 3 short years from 2009 +7.4 UW cumulative difference to a whopping +32.6 in 2011.

The Sark/Wulff split was one of the worst things to happen in parity for us.

In 2012 when Leach took over the gap dropped to 31.8 and we were able to snag an Apple Cup due to the 0-12 Tyrone bomb #79 recruiting class for UW that matured in 2012, but other than that it was uphill grueling March back towards parity.

Leach has steadily closed the gap getting us to within +21.8 UW cumulative differential.

But what we can learn from history is that +15 or lower is where things break our way.

We are getting there, but UW and Petersen are making it harder because he bumped them up a little after Sark making the step up even steeper.

Good news is the gap is indeed closing.
Bad news is that the gap is still a little further out than we need to consistently win Apple Cups.
 
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We just have to continue to chip away. Manage and build our roster. We’re competitive with every team in the conference except UW.
 
We just have to continue to chip away. Manage and build our roster. We’re competitive with every team in the conference except UW.

And if Peterson sticks around how do you believe we make up that talent gap ?
 
And if Peterson sticks around how do you believe we make up that talent gap ?

We might not. Our destiny may be a perennial top-3 finish in the P12 North. We’ve won 4 straight vs. Oregon, 3 of 4 vs. Stanford, we beat Utah regularly, we’re competitive with SC.

UW is a great team. If we keep winning 8-10 wins/year, we’ll get them sometimes.
 
And if Peterson sticks around how do you believe we make up that talent gap ?

The same way we have made up that gap you dummy since he’s been hired.

He came in at 2014 with a +34.2
Now 5 years later it is +21.8

So his benefit to them has hit a ceiling in how high they can recruit. We are in a position to keep closing the gap.
 
We might not. Our destiny may be a perennial top-3 finish in the P12 North. We’ve won 4 straight vs. Oregon, 3 of 4 vs. Stanford, we beat Utah regularly, we’re competitive with SC.

UW is a great team. If we keep winning 8-10 wins/year, we’ll get them sometimes.

I seriously doubt we make up the talent gap. But we also don't need equivalent talent across the board. Need a superior QB (which we've had several times...including this year), a superior couple of d line players (this is not impossible to have, but difficult) and then a couple other key players to get us over the top.
 
The same way we have made up that gap you dummy since he’s been hired.

He came in at 2014 with a +34.2
Now 5 years later it is +21.8

So his benefit to them has hit a ceiling in how high they can recruit. We are in a position to keep closing the gap.
What is p
The same way we have made up that gap you dummy since he’s been hired.

He came in at 2014 with a +34.2
Now 5 years later it is +21.8

So his benefit to them has hit a ceiling in how high they can recruit. We are in a position to keep closing the gap.

Oh you are talking recruiting rankings. If the ranking gaps are decreasing then why are there the 40 something to 10ganes the last three the years . ?
 

It's true. Walden took many a so-called "student" athlete that couldn't go anywhere else. And he looked the other way as they "developed." If it consoles you, Erickson continued this fine tradition.
Anyway, it's been amusing watching Tron show what a joke you are as a so-called WSU fan. You pretty much show up only when the Cougars lose, and then it's more repEDitive drivel about the Walden "glory" years. You really should just shut the hell up.
 
It's true. Walden took many a so-called "student" athlete that couldn't go anywhere else. And he looked the other way as they "developed." If it consoles you, Erickson continued this fine tradition.
Anyway, it's been amusing watching Tron show what a joke you are as a so-called WSU fan. You pretty much show up only when the Cougars lose, and then it's more repEDitive drivel about the Walden "glory" years. You really should just shut the hell up.

Just pointing out that Wulff has two guys test positive for PEDs and there were rumors of a third.
 
Lower academic entrance requirements and rampant steroid use.

Yaki, you said this now at least 3 times in the last 24 hours? Not really sure where you get this info, whether it was that unusual on any team 30-35 years ago, or how it really relates to the topic(s) at hand in 2018.

Walden.... went 3-6 in Apple Cups with way less talent and resources than this current guy who gets blown out every game and is 1-6 and stupid people like yourself think he’s great.

Fixed your post, Tron. :p I knew you would find your way back to CJW eventually. I think 3-6 beats 1-6 including 5 blowouts and one snow-filled humiliation.

Speaking of find, when will this thread find its way back to the great equalizer, Ellensburg in October?

And for the rest of you, no I'm not taking shots at CML. Just having fun with Einstron. Nostradatron. Platron? Socratron? :rolleyes:
 
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Yaki, you said this now at least 3 times in the last 24 hours? Not really sure where you get this info, whether it was that unusual on any team 30-35 years ago, or how it really relates to the topic(s) at hand in 2018.



Fixed your post, Tron. :p I knew you would find your way back to CJW eventually. I think 3-6 beats 1-6 including 5 blowouts and one snow-filled humiliation.

Speaking of find, when will this thread find its way back to the great equalizer, Ellensburg in October?

And for the rest of you, no I'm not taking shots at CML. Just having fun with Einstron. Nostradatron. Platron? Socratron? :rolleyes:

Leach over 7 years
1-6 in Apple Cups over 7 years
5 Bowls 1 win.
2 9 win seasons 1 10 win season 1 8 win season

Jim Walden over 7 years

1978 LOSS 38-8 - Where was the “circling this game Ed?”
1979 LOSS 17-7 - Where was the “circling this game Ed?”
1980 LOSS 30-23 - Where was the “circling this game Ed?”
1981 LOSS 23-10 - We circling yet Ed?
1982 win 24-20 Wow holy shit. He won. I’ll bet the Cougs went to a great bowl game with that team.. oh that’s right 3-7-1 on the season.
1983 win 17-6 Woooow holy cow. 2 wins! We never losing now! Glad we are doing all this circling. 2-4 record in Apple Cups!
1984 - LOSS 38-29. Back to losing.

2-5 in Apple Cups the first 7 years!
A .430 winning percentage! Overall!
No bowl wins!
4 x 3 win seasons! Total
2 x 4 win seasons! Total
A winless season at Iowa State!
Holy Sh*t! that’s bad! I’ll bet only idiots love him.
 
Did Walden rape your mom or what?

The obsession is really unhealthy.

He rapes this program continually with his idiocy.

Most coaches retire after a long period of time and enjoy just shaking people’s hands, watching the games, and just being quiet bystanders / observers.

Occasionally you’ll see legacy coaches hang around a program and they fall into two camps.

The Osbornes and the Fulmers.

Now typically they are coaches that accomplished heralded heights like National Championships and what not. The Osborne’s are the mythical shadow figure of Glory past.

The Fulmer’s are meddlers who seek some kind of position of power and use their influence for self serving reasons.

Walden is of the Fulmer type except the guy never really accomplished sh*t. He basically goes around talking to anybody who will listen and runs his mouth constantly. Constantly, and most of what he says is stupid. Really stupid. The guy thinks he is of Fulmer or Osborne caliber and yet his results are trash. He’s a .386 win percentage coach. That in 17 years of coaching went to 1. Just 1 bowl game (which he lost). Yet somehow people let this guy talk and talk and talk and talk.

It doesn’t benefit WSU to have him around in any way. He tried to stay in Iowa and have a “talk show” until he realized nobody cared what a loser thinks or says...



At least in Iowa.

But WSU has some real stupid fans, and they are dumb enough to listen to him... and all of sudden Walden is back just as the Cougs start doing well again in the 2000s.

He talks his way into color commentary finally in a place that will put up with his stupidity and it didn’t take long for ole Walden to try to run things again but this time with his Protege Wulff.

The guy is poison. Straight up program poison and I don’t want him around. I don’t like his dumb ideas, I don’t care what he thinks, I just want that guy far away from WSU.

I’m glad Fulmer is meddling at Tennessee because we keep Leach, but that doesn’t mean I want our .388 no bowl win version of him around us.

He needs to be ex communicated from all things Coug.
 
Did Walden rape your mom or what?

The obsession is really unhealthy.

Ya think? But I take the blame, I baited him.:rolleyes: Like it was hard. I could have baited the hook with a dead skunk and Jawsatron would have been on it like stink on...well...a hook.....

It's just kind of funny that as most of us are still licking our mental wounds from AC, Socratron just won't let up on how 1-6 with 5 1/2 blowouts is better than 3-6. Or 1-3 for that matter...…:eek:

I'm feeling better BTW. Ran out to the dumpster this PM and pulled out all my Coug gear and brought it back inside. Took me two trips. Now I have to wash it all, dang it.
 
He rapes this program continually with his idiocy.

Most coaches retire after a long period of time and enjoy just shaking people’s hands, watching the games, and just being quiet bystanders / observers.

Occasionally you’ll see legacy coaches hang around a program and they fall into two camps.

The Osbornes and the Fulmers.

Now typically they are coaches that accomplished heralded heights like National Championships and what not. The Osborne’s are the mythical shadow figure of Glory past.

The Fulmer’s are meddlers who seek some kind of position of power and use their influence for self serving reasons.

Walden is of the Fulmer type except the guy never really accomplished sh*t. He basically goes around talking to anybody who will listen and runs his mouth constantly. Constantly, and most of what he says is stupid. Really stupid. The guy thinks he is of Fulmer or Osborne caliber and yet his results are trash. He’s a .386 win percentage coach. That in 17 years of coaching went to 1. Just 1 bowl game (which he lost). Yet somehow people let this guy talk and talk and talk and talk.

It doesn’t benefit WSU to have him around in any way. He tried to stay in Iowa and have a “talk show” until he realized nobody cared what a loser thinks or says...



At least in Iowa.

But WSU has some real stupid fans, and they are dumb enough to listen to him... and all of sudden Walden is back just as the Cougs start doing well again in the 2000s.

He talks his way into color commentary finally in a place that will put up with his stupidity and it didn’t take long for ole Walden to try to run things again but this time with his Protege Wulff.

The guy is poison. Straight up program poison and I don’t want him around. I don’t like his dumb ideas, I don’t care what he thinks, I just want that guy far away from WSU.

I’m glad Fulmer is meddling at Tennessee because we keep Leach, but that doesn’t mean I want our .388 no bowl win version of him around us.

He needs to be ex communicated from all things Coug.

Whatever, dude. Way too much time spent on one guy, good or bad.
 
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