Book your tickets to LA or Phoenix
- Thread starter Brent H.
- Start date
I am good with either one. My sister lives near Phoenix. One of my closest friends lives in Pasadena and he is a Coug.
I'm so fired up for the Apple Cup!! Usually I'm dreading it, but this year is different. Minshew is gonna get it done!
CougPatrol disagrees with your post
No we aren’t. They aren’t gonna move us above a 1 loss B1G or Big 12 team. If we aren’t 6th Tuesday it isn’t happening.
Look at the schedule. Oklahoma will need to beat West Virginia and Texas. Don't think they do that.
Michigan would need to beat Ohio St and Northwestern. Possible, but not guaranteed.
Alabama will take care of Georgia for us.
I'd give us a 25% shot at making the playoff if we win out. We are very much alive.
Playoff is cool....but I really want this #16 to avenge the last #16 rose bowl's loss.
Just frickin beat UW please. Every time we’ve been in this position with the exception of 97 we’ve face planted on this game let’s blow their doors off and go from there.
You may think that, but we are still in it.
Here’s the scenario that leads us to going to the Playoffs.
1. USC beats Notre Dame - Notre Dame will have 1 loss to the same team we did and if we win our and win the Pac-12 title we will have a conference title benefit. We will be ahead of a Notre Dame.
2. Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC championship game. Georgia will have 2 losses Georgia is out.
3. Ohio State beats Michigan or vice versa and loses championship game to Northwestern.
4. West Virginia beats Oklahoma causing both to have 2 losses.
Notre Dame drops behind us (1 loss to the same team we did with no conference title)
Oklahoma/West Virginia have 2 losses (behind us)
Georgia - 2 losses behind us.
Michigan / Ohio State 2 losses behind us.
If the scenario I described plays out.
Alabama is in.
Clemson is in.
And for one of the other spots as a one win Power 5 conference champion we will be IN.
All we can do is win out, but there still is a chance.
Thats why they play the games. WSU needs some chaos to make it, but they are definitely in the hunt.
FACT: YOUR WRONG
ALL THE EXPERTS, PUNDITS, CFP SOURCES, ETC, COMBINED WITH THE CFP COMMITTEE RULES:
1. ND has to be unbeaten to goto playoffs over a 1 loss conference champion.
Thus 1, One of the things that would have to happen is ND losing to SC
2. Ohio State had a extremely ugly just barely by skin of teeth bad win.
Ohio State either needs to just barely by skin of teeth beat Michigan in a extremely ugly bad looking win
OR
Beat Michigan, then lose to Northwestern in Big 10 championship game.
3. WSU not only needs to win out, but may, might probably need to blow out either UW or the Pac 12 championship game team.
4. Alabama beat Georgia
5. WVU beats OKU, or OKU loses the Big 12 championship game.
Those things happen and the only 1 loss teams would be: A. ND, who according to rules wouldnt go to playoff over 1 loss WSU Pac 12 conference champ
B. Ohio State IF Ohio State dont lose to Northwestern in Big 10 Champ game.
The CFP committee wouldn't choose a 1 loss Ohio State, that ranked BEHIND WSU, that had 2 extremely ugly bad win, over a 1 loss WSU Pac 12 Champ ranked ahead, with 2 Blowout wins to end the season vs Arizona and either UW or the Pac 12 champ game team.
Playoff spots 1 and 2 would go to Bama, Clemson.
#3 would goto Ohio State
#4 would go to WSU
If for some strange reason ND got #3 or #4 spot with 1 loss, then WSU would probably get playoff spot over a 1 loss Ohio State that altho only 1 loss would have had the last 3 games of season, Maryland, Michigan, Big 10 Champ game be ultimate extremely bad looking wins, and be ranked behind WSU.
Now is ALL that bloody damn likely to happen?
No
BUT IF ALL THAT DOES HAPPEN
WSU would in fact, truth, get the #4 playoff spot.
Also I have looked at all the expert, pundit, media polls, and they are predicting that WSU will be ranked #6 in the AP, Coaches Poll, and #6,#7 in the CFP poll.
Their reasoning which goes along with mine, is that WSU put up 69 on Arizona, and the teams ahead of WSU either lost, and or had bad looking wins
Its extremely likely that WSU will be #6 in AP, coaches, and #6,#7 in CFP
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The committee can do what they want. There's nothing stating they have to put us in over ND if we both have 1 loss. It just states that they will value conference championships over a lack of. If they think ND is far and away better than WSU even with a PAC championship, they can put ND in.
1. ALL THE MAJOR, CREDIBLE, BIG NAME EXPERTS, PUNDITS, TV PEOPLE, MEDIA, CFP SOURCES:
A. Saying that a 1 LOSS ND does NOT make it to Playoffs period whether WSU is in or not and Especially not over a 1 loss conference champ, even if 1 loss WSU
Thats because
1. Tho the committee can technically do whatever they want. The selection committee rules are almost sacredsanct like to both the committee, COLLEGE FOOTBALL WORLD, and as such the committee will
A. Think a team is better according to those rules
B. Will follow thoae rules over who they think is better.
C. If they dont follow those rules, there would be hell to pay in the COLLEGE FOOTBALL WORLD, especially by POWER 5 conferences.
D. If they didnt follow those rules the CFP committee would be replaced, removed by the powers that be over them.
E. And lastly the CFP xommittee has ALWAYS and will probably CONTINUE TO ALWAYS FOLLOW THE RULES, GUIDESLINES.
And those lettered points above is WHY THE CREDIBLE BIG NAME EXPERTS, PUNDITS, TV, MEDIA, etc, are saying that a 1 loss ND not make playoffs much less over WSU, because of CFP selection rules, because they are PAID A LOT OF MONEY TO GET THIS STUFF right and are SMART, NOT stupid and SMARTLY follow selection rules, and SMARTLY say a 1 loss ND no make playoffs.
Other selection rules and Reasons why 1 loss ND no make playoffs:
1. They are a independent, have no conference, and have a actual negotiated agreement, contract that says they get playoffs according to the selection rules, and that if they dont meet selection rules they dont get to playoffs. But if they meet selection rules they get to go. As such, according to contract and selection rules, a 1 loss ND no go, especially not over a conference champ, even a 1 loss WSU champ.
2. ND's schedule is the weakest. Even with signature wins their schedule is weakest. With that kind of weakest schedule, you have to go unbeaten to make it to playoffs.
3. Only ND's name, reputation, etc, is keeping it from being a UCF. IF ND's name were UCF, then even ND's signature wins, and being unbeaten would not be enough
But ND is similar to UCF that if both UCF, ND lose even 1 game: No playoffs, especially not over a 1 loss conference champ, even a 1 loss WSU champ
You're making a lot of bold statements as facts that are not facts. From the official College Football Playoff site:
Proposed Selection Process:
Establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie-breaker; apply specific guidelines).
The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, Presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
Establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie-breaker; apply specific guidelines).
The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, Presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
- Championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
- Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
We believe that a committee of experts properly instructed (based on beliefs that the regular season is unique and must be preserved; and that championships won on the field and strength of schedule are important values that must be incorporated into the selection process) has very strong support throughout the college football community.
Now, winning a conference championship is important, but do you see anything there that says that a conference champion has precedent over Notre Dame (or anyone else)? If you do a search of "Notre Dame" on their selection process page, there is nothing that says anything about Notre Dame other than saying that they agreed to the process, that they go to the Orange Bowl if the SEC or Big 10 champion is not available, that they will be considered as an at large for the Orange Bowl in certain situations and that they can't go to the Orange Bowl more than twice in any eight year period.
As for your insistence that conference championships are so important.....how the hell did Alabama get into the playoff last year when they didn't even win their division? Contrary to what you think, the committee has a tremendous amount of latitude in their selection process. To quote Pirates of the Caribbean, "the code is more what you'd call "guidelines" than actual rules".
I'm betting on meth. Maybe Adderall, or Coke, but probably meth.
ITS NOT JUST CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS.
I CITED LOTS OF VALID, LEGIT REASONS, CRITERIA, EVEN DID A NUMBERED LISTING OF THEM.
AND ITS NOT ME, ITS THE CREDIBLE BIG NAME CFP SOURCES, MEDIA, EXPERTS, PUNDITS, TV, RADIO, NEWSPAPERS, INTERNET, ETC, WHO GET PAID MILLIONS, WHO KNOW MORE THEN YOU, ME, OTHERS WHO HAVE CITED ALL THE LEGIT REASONS AND MORE ON WHY ND NO MAKE PLAYOFFS IF THEY LOSE 1 GAME
I WILL GO BY THEM, INSTEAD OF YOU.
HERE ARE THE REASONS WHY ND NO GOTO PLAYOFF IF THEY LOSE ACCORDING TO MILLION DOLLAR EXPERTS.
1. THEY ARE A INDEPENDENT.
2. THEY HAVE THE WEAKEST SCHEDULE.
3. IF THEY LOSE LAST SEASONAL GAME, THEY WONT HAVE A CONFERENCE CHAMP GAME TO RECOVER FROM LOSS. INSTEAD OF LOSING, THEN WINNING A GAME TO RECOVER, THEY DONT GET THAT.
4. ND DOES HAVE A ARRANGEMENT WHERE THE ONLY WAY THEY GOTO PLAYOFF IS TO WIN EVERY GAME, OR ONLY LOSE 1 GAME IF IF THERE NO VIABLE 1 LOSS CONFERENCE CHAMPS.
THE MILLION DOLLAR EXPERTS HAVE SAID THAT IF IF ND LOSES TO USC, THEY ARE, WOULD BE OUT OF PLAYOFFS.
1. THEY ARE A INDEPENDENT.
2. THEY HAVE THE WEAKEST SCHEDULE.
3. IF THEY LOSE LAST SEASONAL GAME, THEY WONT HAVE A CONFERENCE CHAMP GAME TO RECOVER FROM LOSS. INSTEAD OF LOSING, THEN WINNING A GAME TO RECOVER, THEY DONT GET THAT.
4. ND DOES HAVE A ARRANGEMENT WHERE THE ONLY WAY THEY GOTO PLAYOFF IS TO WIN EVERY GAME, OR ONLY LOSE 1 GAME IF IF THERE NO VIABLE 1 LOSS CONFERENCE CHAMPS.
THE MILLION DOLLAR EXPERTS HAVE SAID THAT IF IF ND LOSES TO USC, THEY ARE, WOULD BE OUT OF PLAYOFFS.
CAPITALIZING EVERYTHING ANNOYS THE $HIT OUT OF EVERYONE!!!
As for their supposed weak schedule, they currently have wins over: Michigan (current #3 CFP ranking), Syracuse (#12 CFP), and Northwestern (#22 CFP). They also have wins over opponents that were ranked at the time they played (Stanford #7, V. Tech #24). All in all, not what I would call a weak schedule.
To your other point, here's one site that says even if they lose they can still get in to the playoffs: https://thespun.com/college-football/notre-dame-college-football-playoff-odds-2018
I'm sure there are others, but I'm not that engaged in this to look.
AND POOR READING COMPREHENSION ANNOYS ME.
I WOULDNT HAVE TO ALL CAPS TO EMPHASIZE, HIGHLIGHT HELP WITH SEEING, READING, READING COMPREHENSION, ETC, IF DONT TAKE POST OUT OF CONTEXT, ETC
Well truth be told, most of what you write is virtually incomprehensible. I'd say there's between a 3 and 17 to 21% chance that people understand what you're trying to say in any given post.
Yes ND has signature wins, but that strength you refer to is only about 1/3 to 1/2, to 3/5's of their schedule.
The remaining 2/5's of their schedule, about 4,5,6,7 or so teams are weak teams.
Conference teams get to play 8,9 POWER 5 teams.
ND only gets 2 to 5 POWER 5 teams. Now the 2 to 5 Power 5 teams are usually Michigan, Stanford, USC.
But the rest of their schedule is non Power 5 teams.
If ND wants to claim a strong schedule they need to schedule 8,9,10 Power 5 teams, not just a SMALL handfull of 3 to 6 Power 5 teams. Having 5,6 non power 5 teams is worse then the SEC scheduling 4 nonconference PATSIES. IF ND doesnt like that, they need to, should join a Power 5 conference.
The ONLY way for ND to make playoffs as a 1 Loss team if they lose to SC, is for
Michigan, Ohio State, OKU, Georgia, basically all 1 loss conference champs to have 2 losses.
If any 2 power 5 conference champs has 1 loss, in addition to Clemson, Bama, then if ND loses to SC, ND would be out of CFP.
What your link is probably basically saying is that ND could get back in CFP if it lost to SC if the power 5 conference champs go to 2 losses
And if they are saying that a 1 loss ND would beat out a 1 loss OSU, Michigan, OKU, WSU power 5 conference champ, for a CFP spot, then they are probably only a couple, few, minority saying that, and probably dont know what their talking about.
What?
My head is spinning from the dazzling use of fractions, but that notwithstanding, let's go through their schedule shall we?
Michigan = P5
Vanderbilt = P5
Stanford = P5
Pittsburgh = P5
Northwestern = P5
Syracuse = P5
Ball State = not P5
Wake Forest = P5
V. Tech = P5
Navy = not P5
FSU = P5
USC = P5
Correct my math if wrong, but that's 10/12s, or 30/36s, or 70/84s P5 teams that Notre Dame played this year. And you said "Conference teams get to play 8,9 POWER 5 teams.
ND only gets 2 to 5 POWER 5 teams. Now the 2 to 5 Power 5 teams are usually Michigan, Stanford, USC."
10 is more than 8,9, no?
Mikalalas......I appreciate your passion.....but you make the most outspoken of us look restrained when you get on a roll. I think most of us agree with you that a late season loss by ND to USC would be disastrous to them, but that's because a late season loss to a 5-6 team is disastrous to everyone. The CFP committee has more latitude than you seem to think but I agree with you that they aren't going to keep ND in above us (or any other 1 loss team) if they choke against the Trojans.
The problem with arguing about this is that ND is a 9.5 point favorite in Vegas and 17+ point favorite based on computer models. Anything can happen, but you arguing relentlessly feels like you just want to argue about something. In the initial post where you brought up ND, you were responding to Brent H.......who hadn't said anything about ND. He said that he thought that WSU would not get into the CFP over Michigan, Ohio State or Oklahoma and frankly, until it happens, I can't disagree with him no matter how much logic that you attempt to throw at it.
The problem with arguing about this is that ND is a 9.5 point favorite in Vegas and 17+ point favorite based on computer models. Anything can happen, but you arguing relentlessly feels like you just want to argue about something. In the initial post where you brought up ND, you were responding to Brent H.......who hadn't said anything about ND. He said that he thought that WSU would not get into the CFP over Michigan, Ohio State or Oklahoma and frankly, until it happens, I can't disagree with him no matter how much logic that you attempt to throw at it.
Ok, as far as schedule strength goes, I guess the experts were, are wrong.
Remember I did say that one of the reasons I go by the experts is they know more then me.
And I figured they know more then you, but based on your last post maybe not.
Maybe in past years ND schedule has been week. Maybe thats what the experts were thinking.
I still think that a 1 loss ND losing its last game of season to SC, does not beat out a 1 loss OSU, Michigan, OKU, Georgia, WSU, conference champs for a playoff spot.
And I think the 1 loss conference champs would have to lose to get a 1 loss ND to playoffs.
But that said maybe the experts who think the same about ND, dont know what they are talking about.
Hard for a expert, anybody to argue against what you posted.
I'm not a expert, and wont argue against what you posted, except for the part where I think a 1 loss ND doesnt get selected over 1 loss OSU, Michigan, OKU, WSU, etc.
The beauty of Google my friend. I not so smart, but I can ask google anything and he never leads me astray.
Going a little further...of ND’s 10 Power 5 opponents, by my count 5 are already bowl eligible. And the other 5 can get there in their remaining games. So I don’t really see knocking their schedule, especially when our schedule has Oregon state and San Jose state (who is 1-10 in the Mountain West).
To the other point, I’d agree that ND is probably out if they lose to USC. They could always argue that we did too, but it’s always better to lose early in the season. And, assuming we win the conference we’ll have the extra game.
But, there are still so many long shots that have to come through that I don’t think it’s worth arguing about - certainly not in ALL CAPS.
Besides - weighing the possibilities, I think we gain more beneficial publicity by being a close #5, being left out of the playoff with some controversy, and then beating a quality team in the Rose Bowl to show we should have been included. That beats being a likely sacrificial lamb for either Alabama or Clemson - both of whom are going to be in the playoff even if they lose.
My initial post, and other post that responded to Brent, were not just or only about ND.
It was OrangeGravy that said that the selection committee, wouldnt or doesnt have to follow its own rules, and could select ND, whoever they wanted even the worst team.
I responded. Then you, fingerdisco responded to my response.
Then I responded to you, fingerdisco.
So no this was not just, only about ND.
I thought this was a good time to mention Alabama's non-con schedule. Louisville - bad this year but ACC - equivalent to our 9th game
Ark St - SunBelt
Louisiana (formerly Rajun Cajuns) - SunBelt
Citadel - Div I-AA.
Yeah, I don’t have issue with any of their opponents in terms of their worthiness for consideration for strength of schedule and making the playoff. In fact with the exception of Ball State and maybe Vandy, pretty much all their opponents generally field a decent product. Granted, Stanford and SC aren’t the marquee teams they’ve been in recent past, that’s not NDs fault. At the time those games were scheduled, both those teams were much more difficult outs than this year.
And I believe that regardless of your opinion, that at the end of the day, Ohio State beating Michigan and Northwestern gets them into the CFP over the Cougs, whether we like it or not. A one loss Big 12 team (Oklahoma) stays ahead of us. Clemson isn't going to lose and the SEC gets a team in. Notre Dame isn't going to lose and if they did, but there's no "rule" that specifically excludes the CFP committee from taking ND over us if they choose to do that. You didn't like Brent H's opinion but we can't feel good about our chances to get in ahead of anyone unless the next two games play out like last night. There's a chance that we get in and that's great, but getting what appears to be very angry about this doesn't seem to be worth the effort from where I sit. You brought up ND because you feel like arguing on a Sunday afternoon/evening and that's ok, but this season will play out however it does and if we keep winning, I'm going to be happy no matter the result.
Look I never said that WSU would be in Playoffs, you, others seem to like taking what me, others say out of context, putting words in my mouth etc.
Hence why I use CAPS to Clarify, emphasize, highlight, to try to help with better reading, to try to prevent, avoid you others doing those things.
All I said was WHAT WOULD HAVE TO HAPPEN FOR WSU TO GET TO PLAYOFFS.
THAT IS:
1. ND Losing to SC
2. Ohio state beating Michigan
3. Northwestern beating Ohio State
4. A 2 LOSS WVU or Texas beating 1 loss OKU in Big 12 championship
5. Alabama beating 1 loss Georgia
6. Bama, Clemson not losing
Those things happen, and WSU is in Playoffs.
And its not me saying that.
Its the EXPERTS saying that.
And I explained the how, and why of why those thing happening would get WSU in.
And those things do show that what Brent was saying in saying there was no way for WSU to get in was wrong.
Again I wasnt saying WSU would get into playoffs, only how it would be possible, and what would have to happen.
I actually dont think WSU will get in because I dont think ND loses to SC
OSU doesnt beat Michigan, an or if it does Northwestern doesnt beat OSU
Texas or WVU doesnt beat OKU.
And even if some of those things happen ALL OF THOSE THINGS HAPPENING WONT HAPPEN.
So Brents point about a 1 loss teams like ND being over WSU was pointless, because ND no lose to SC, etc.
But Brent's point that there was supposedly no way for WSU to get in was wrong
And I pointed that out and why.
You have it backwards.
If OSU doesnt beat Michigan, Michigan at #3,#4, with 1 loss would get in over 1 loss WSU.
And Northwestern would have to beat OSU in Big 12 championship game, or OSU would be in over WSU if beat Michigan, which would be necessary, because if OSU no beat Michigan, Michigan in over WSU.
WVU lost, at 2 losses, so either WVU or Texas would have to beat OKU in Big 12 champ game.
