Bowl projections this week

[Coug95man2]

Schlabach has us at the Cheez-It Bowl in Phoenix against Texas Tech

Bonagura has us in the Vegas bowl against Boise State.

From a marketing perspective, both are good but TT would be great.

 

[95coug]

Schlabach has us at the Cheez-It Bowl in Phoenix against Texas Tech

Bonagura has us in the Vegas bowl against Boise State.

From a marketing perspective, both are good but TT would be great.

All of those are optimistic. With the remaining schedule, this team will struggle to be 6-6. This defense is no match for UO or UW, and even OSU will give it trouble. Neither Cal or Stanford poses much offensive threat, but Cal has a very good defense and is at home. The trees are the only one I feel pretty good about. Finishing 1-4 at this point is far more likely than 4-1.

 

[Coug90]

All of those are optimistic. With the remaining schedule, this team will struggle to be 6-6. This defense is no match for UO or UW, and even OSU will give it trouble. Neither Cal or Stanford poses much offensive threat, but Cal has a very good defense and is at home. The trees are the only one I feel pretty good about. Finishing 1-4 at this point is far more likely than 4-1.

I think there are two wins left. I agree UW and Oregon look like long shots but two out of the other three is not unreasonable. And this feels like a year we may take one from UW that we have no business taking. We lose to em with our best teams and find ways to beat them with our mediocre ones. For the last 5 games I’d put the line at 2.5...6 or 7 is most likely.

 

[CrimsonDisciple]

One thing I’d say, Leach has never won less than 7 games with his players. He tends to lose a couple that he shouldn’t have, win a couple he shouldn’t have. We’re due to win a couple we have no business winning.

 

[chipdouglas]

We beat OSU, Stanford and Cal. Lose the rest. But we go bowling.

 

[mikalalas]

OSU: Probable win

Stanford: Toss up

Cal: Toss up

Oregon: Probable loss

UW: Probable Loss

Out of the 2 toss up's WSU wins at least 1 of them, with about 53% chance to win both toss ups against Cal, Stanford.

Out of the 2 Probable losses, there is about a 49% chance that upset, steal, beat 1 of them.

Only about a 13% to 23% chance to lose against Ore St, Probable win.

Line, Over/Under:

2.5 wins, games out of the last 5 games, 6,6.5,7 wins for the season, pre bowl game.

My prediction:

WSU wins 3 out of last 5 games.

Beats Ore St.

Beats both Cal and Stanford

Loses to both Ore, and UW

Just barely goes 7-5 pre bowl game.

Just barely wins bowl game.

Just barely finishes 8-5 for the season.

 

[fingerdisco]

OSU: Probable win

Stanford: Toss up

Cal: Toss up

Oregon: Probable loss

UW: Probable Loss

Out of the 2 toss up's WSU wins at least 1 of them, with about 53% chance to win both toss ups against Cal, Stanford.

Out of the 2 Probable losses, there is about a 49% chance that upset, steal, beat 1 of them.

Only about a 13% to 23% chance to lose against Ore St, Probable win.

Line, Over/Under:

2.5 wins, games out of the last 5 games, 6,6.5,7 wins for the season, pre bowl game.

My prediction:

WSU wins 3 out of last 5 games.

Beats Ore St.

Beats both Cal and Stanford

Loses to both Ore, and UW

Just barely goes 7-5 pre bowl game.

Just barely wins bowl game.

Just barely finishes 8-5 for the season.

If there's a 49% chance of winning one of our probable losses, doesn't that really mean its a tossup?

 

[Flatlandcoug]

What's really crazy is how fickle the sport of football is......and how the fans fit right into that. Last year, we had to come from behind to beat Utah in game 5 to avoid falling to 3-2. Stanford came down to the last team that scored. Same with Cal. We were lucky to hold Oregon to field goals in the second half last year and we were in danger of losing after leading 27-0. We had a great season where we finished 10-2, but we were only a handful of plays per game away from 6-6 last year.

This year, if we avoid one turnover against UCLA and make a stop on 4th and 2 against ASU, we would be sitting at 6-1 and the entire tone of the season would be different. Hell, as miserable as that Utah game was a few weeks back, it would have been a 24-20 game in the 4th quarter if we don't gack at the end of the 2nd quarter and if we score a TD after having the ball 1st and goal from the 6. Who knows what happens if we aren't playing desperate late in the game. I see a comment above that we'll struggle to finish 6-6 and I'd counter that if we get our sh!t together for 3-4 more plays per game......we could easily run the table.

This team is capable of missing a bowl game but it's also capable of finishing 8-4. I'm just happy the losing streak is over as a good start to the second half of the season.

 

[PINGDUDE4]

What's really crazy is how fickle the sport of football is......and how the fans fit right into that. Last year, we had to come from behind to beat Utah in game 5 to avoid falling to 3-2. Stanford came down to the last team that scored. Same with Cal. We were lucky to hold Oregon to field goals in the second half last year and we were in danger of losing after leading 27-0. We had a great season where we finished 10-2, but we were only a handful of plays per game away from 6-6 last year.

This year, if we avoid one turnover against UCLA and make a stop on 4th and 2 against ASU, we would be sitting at 6-1 and the entire tone of the season would be different. Hell, as miserable as that Utah game was a few weeks back, it would have been a 24-20 game in the 4th quarter if we don't gack at the end of the 2nd quarter and if we score a TD after having the ball 1st and goal from the 6. Who knows what happens if we aren't playing desperate late in the game. I see a comment above that we'll struggle to finish 6-6 and I'd counter that if we get our sh!t together for 3-4 more plays per game......we could easily run the table.

This team is capable of missing a bowl game but it's also capable of finishing 8-4. I'm just happy the losing streak is over as a good start to the second half of the season.

Great post.

Basically there are a handful of really great teams in college football and below them are teams that cut things really thin between losing or winning about 5 games on their schedule. Makes for bi-polar fan bases and severe overreactions both ways.

 

[OrangeGravy]

What's really crazy is how fickle the sport of football is......and how the fans fit right into that. Last year, we had to come from behind to beat Utah in game 5 to avoid falling to 3-2. Stanford came down to the last team that scored. Same with Cal. We were lucky to hold Oregon to field goals in the second half last year and we were in danger of losing after leading 27-0. We had a great season where we finished 10-2, but we were only a handful of plays per game away from 6-6 last year.

This year, if we avoid one turnover against UCLA and make a stop on 4th and 2 against ASU, we would be sitting at 6-1 and the entire tone of the season would be different. Hell, as miserable as that Utah game was a few weeks back, it would have been a 24-20 game in the 4th quarter if we don't gack at the end of the 2nd quarter and if we score a TD after having the ball 1st and goal from the 6. Who knows what happens if we aren't playing desperate late in the game. I see a comment above that we'll struggle to finish 6-6 and I'd counter that if we get our sh!t together for 3-4 more plays per game......we could easily run the table.

This team is capable of missing a bowl game but it's also capable of finishing 8-4. I'm just happy the losing streak is over as a good start to the second half of the season.

Shows the importance of having a QB that really understands what to do and what not to do in critical situations during a tight game. Last year was the first year we had one under Leach. I think it's even more important to have a guy like that in this system.

 

[Glad Cougar]

Shows the importance of having a QB that really understands what to do and what not to do in critical situations during a tight game. Last year was the first year we had one under Leach. I think it's even more important to have a guy like that in this system.

Also shows the importance of having a leader on the defensive side of the ball and a couple of solid playmakers on defense. I'm thinking Peyton Pelluer, Jalen Thompson, and Logan Tago would probably make a few plays in the UCLA and ASU games that would make the difference between a win and a loss.

Glad Cougar

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Also shows the importance of having a leader on the defensive side of the ball and a couple of solid playmakers on defense. I'm thinking Peyton Pelluer, Jalen Thompson, and Logan Tago would probably make a few plays in the UCLA and ASU games that would make the difference between a win and a loss.

Glad Cougar

I'd agree with both you guys and say that leadership on both sides of the ball is the key to a good finish to the season. Defensively, we need a couple vocal leaders that are helping the coaches hold players accountable. Offensively, Gordon has been pretty good overall, but there are few incremental things that he can do to be better. What's interesting is the play of Arcanado. As mentioned by someone else, I feel like we would have beaten ASU if he had been on the field. He's a little too enthusiastic about signalling first downs for my liking.....but the guy brings energy to the field when he plays.

 

[Coug95man2]

What's really crazy is how fickle the sport of football is......and how the fans fit right into that. Last year, we had to come from behind to beat Utah in game 5 to avoid falling to 3-2. Stanford came down to the last team that scored. Same with Cal. We were lucky to hold Oregon to field goals in the second half last year and we were in danger of losing after leading 27-0. We had a great season where we finished 10-2, but we were only a handful of plays per game away from 6-6 last year.

This year, if we avoid one turnover against UCLA and make a stop on 4th and 2 against ASU, we would be sitting at 6-1 and the entire tone of the season would be different. Hell, as miserable as that Utah game was a few weeks back, it would have been a 24-20 game in the 4th quarter if we don't gack at the end of the 2nd quarter and if we score a TD after having the ball 1st and goal from the 6. Who knows what happens if we aren't playing desperate late in the game. I see a comment above that we'll struggle to finish 6-6 and I'd counter that if we get our sh!t together for 3-4 more plays per game......we could easily run the table.

This team is capable of missing a bowl game but it's also capable of finishing 8-4. I'm just happy the losing streak is over as a good start to the second half of the season.

So true. And it's true for all teams. Teams are normally 1 or 2 plays away from winning or losing. Just a fact. Consistency will always be the mantra.