Mik...there were several reasons I didn't respond. You made several posts how we were going to kill Cal. I disagreed, but I didn't want to crap on your posts. For the record, I don't think the best team always wins. I think we have a better team than the UW this year. I don't believe they are 30 points better than us, any year. I think we are better this year, but I also agree with Joel Klatt and others when they say the UW is a bad match up for us because of where their strength is.
I get the 2015 game and how Falk wasn't there. I know for a fact the coaching staff was very confident they were going to beat the UW whether Falk played or not. The game didn't play out that way.
We should beat the UW at home because we are a better team. But just out of curiosity if we lose by say 20 this year, what would be the scenario and how would it happen.
Actually I didnt say anything of the sort that WSU would kill Cal.
Others said that. I expected a close game, a coug win, with a 3% chance that Cal, 97% chance that WSU win.
My comment was in response to your comment about UW beating WSU.
If you think that UW will beat WSU, then ok, thats what you think.
But your comparison on WHY UW would win was FLAWED, illogical, was apples to oranges.
WSU has about a 85% chance of beating UW. WSU has about a 13% chance at losing to UW.
The only way WSU loses to UW is if:
1. Injuries
2. Penalties, whether officiating bad, good, but especially if officiating bad.
3. If WSU comes out flat, doesnt play well for whole game for some strange reason.
4. If UW has its best game of the last 100 years.
5. A lot of Crazy, Bad, Butluck, bad luck bounces going against WSU.
Sans those things WSU should win.
But its the applecup. Its UW, WSU is playing, so anything could in theory happen, and WSU lose.
But I go by odds, probabilities, and expect accordingly.
If I didnt, I would not play no limit hold em poker.
If I move all in preflop with AA, and get called with 72, there is about a 83% chance, that AA will hold up, win.
Yeah there is a chance that 72 could flop 72, win. But I dont worry about that. I expect AA to win over 72.
Its the same with WSU vs UW. WSU should beat UW. Yeah UW could in theory win. But I am not going to worry about that. I am going to expect WSU to win.
And I am not going to wring my hands. Say but what if UW win. Say UW will win.
Not be a negative nancy negacoug.
Wont use a apples to oranges comparison on why UW should, would, beat WSU.