Thanks Ed, more of those kind of post.
What you said was reasonable. 5,6 wins is a reasonable possibility. The DL, combined with other issues might cause 5,6,7 wins.
The reason why Yaki,Tron, Me, others were having a problem with what you were saying about the DL, is it seemed that you were saying, suggesting 2,3,4 win season because of the DL.
If that had been what you had been suggesting, that would not have been reasonable according to logic, reason, facts, etc.
But thanks for the clarification, and me, others should have asked for clarification.
I don't know a lot about the DL. But what I do know, have good reason to believe:
EITHER:
1. Phelps is a good coach that usually produces a good DL every year.
2. Phelps is a superior teacher at teaching superior technique.
3. Phelps is great at developing.
4. Phelps and Claeys, are great at scheme, hiding, covering up, minimizing weakness, maximizing limited strengths.
5. Phelps, Claeys, CML, other assistant coaches are great recruiters in BOTH either beating out others for recruits, evaluating under the radar, diamond in the rough talent, developing talent.
6. The players have or will have probably improved from last year, and or will probably improve as the season goes on.
Bottom line is that CML, Claeys, Phelp, will PROBABLY find a way to get it done.
Either scheme is used to hide, min/max strength/weakness.
Or improvement will happen
Or they are or will be talented enough.
Or the DL will be just barely by skin of teeth be good enough combined with offensive production.
Or the Offense will score enough.
But even if that doesnt happen and the DL is bad, they would still win a likely 5,6,7 wins.
2,3,4 wins is just not likely, probably wont happen.
Only about a 3% chance of 2,3 wins, and maybe about a 9% to 17% chance of 4 wins. And about 18 to 33% chance of 5 wins, about 34 to 44% chance at 6 wins. 45 to 55% chance of 7 wins. About 17 to 33% chance of 8 wins. 9 to 17% chance of 9 wins. 4 to 8% chance at 10 wins, 2,3% chance at 11 wins.
Only semi likely way 4.5 wins or less happens is if MASSIVE number of injuries happen, at some to a lot of offensive, defensive positions, AND WHILE IF the back ups, depth is not good enough.
And if 5,6 wins happen:
That would be pretty good, ok for a SMALL rebuild year.
In the past, there would be 1,2,3 years of only 2,3,4 wins per year, until the next 6,7,8,9,10 win, bowl game year.
Now its 5,6 wins at likely worst, and 7 wins average, 8 wins at best for a 1,2 year SMALL reload, rebuild, and then 8,9,10 wins the next year.
Thats why me, others say the DL is fine, will be ok, is because in any reload, SMALL rebuild year where get a likely 5,6,7 wins, the DL was just barely ok enough to get you that 5,6,7 wins, no matter how good or bad the DL actually was or was not.
Thats why the DL is fine, or will be fine.
Thats why me, others are not worried about it.
I'm not worried, say the DL will be just fine, because the DL will be ok enough to get 5,6,7,8 wins with 7 wins the most likely.