Your last line is the truth-we really know nothing at this time and absolutely will have to wait for the dust to settle down to see where we land for a league and how much money we end up with or without.
So I watched 15-20 minutes of the Monty show (until I got tired of the same stuff being repeated) where he is 100,000% sure of himself and that WSU has absolutely no shot at getting or splitting $320,000,000 with OSU. Here is where I could not make any sense of what he was saying, and maybe he clarified it about an hour into the show. He made a big deal about tying the $320 million to getting into the College Football Playoff, and saying basically it would take a miracle for either WSU or OSU to make it into the playoffs, thus we get nothing.
But what about all the other media rights that the conference gets-isn't that where the big money comes to the conference? I'm not saying whether WSU/OSU will or won't prevail in court about control of those funds, as going to court is always a big time crapshoot in my opinion, but isn't the BIG issue for us all the other broadcast rights and not whether we get teams into the CFB playoffs?
The probability chances of getting into the playoffs, does factor somewhat into what, who should get money, a piece of the money pie.
But it's not just that. It's how strong your conference is, strength of schedule, parity, depth, tradition, brand, fan support, money, donations, media rights, etc, all combined together.
If WSU, OSU was in the SEC, there would be NO CHANCE of making the playoffs, especially if only 4 team playoffs, instead of 12 team playoffs.
In the soon to be former PAC 12, WSU, OSU would have a 1% chance at 4 team playoffs, and 7 to 10 to 13% chance at 12 team playoff.
In a rebuilt PAC with MWC teams, WSU, OSU would have about a 13% to 30% chance to make 12 team playoff.
What Monty is NOT getting is that according to the past playoff agreement, set up, ALL the P5 conferences are owed about pretty much equal pieces of the money pie.
The PAC 12's pieces has added up to about 320 million over the years. This is money that is either OWED to PAC 12, or already paid out to the PAC 12.
According to PAC 12 BYLAW wording, and according to Judge, court, lawyers, etc, those that give notice of intent to leave, give up their piece of the 320 million, and voting rights, etc.
The 10 have done that. There is smoking gun evidence, and the judge, court has ruled that that is so, with another hearing scheduled Nov 14 in front of same judge that ruled in WSU's, OSU's favor, in Whitman County court.
Monty is SHARING his WRONG OPINION OUT OF HIS AZZ, that CONTRADICTS the facts, truth, evidence, court ruling, etc.
He does NOT back it up with rationality, Logic, reason, facts, evidence, quotes, etc, like the Locked On guy does.
That said, Monty won't OFFICIALLY be proven WRONG, UNTIL Nov 14, when the Judge BLOODY DAM LIKELY RE CONFIRMS HIS PREVIOUS RULING, and as a result of that WSU, OSU get the 300 million, Sole voting rights etc.
But until that OFFICIALLY happens, Monty is only UNOFFICIALLY WRONG, etc, and will have to wait and see.