So, looking to this weekend, the matchups significant to the playoffs (and possibly to our bowl destination) are:
Oregon - Penn State:
Looks like a pretty decent matchup. PSU lost at home to Ohio State, Oregon beat them at home (but probably shouldn't have). Other common opponents: UW, Wisconsin, Maryland, Illinois, and UCLA. Both teams beat all of them, both had the most trouble with Wisconsin. Oregon scored more against 3 of them, but gave up more against 4. This looks like a dogfight, I give Oregon a slight edge...but that advantage disappears if they come in overconfident.
Oregon most likely makes the playoff even with a loss. If PSU loses, they're 11-2, and still have a shot, but it gets a lot fuzzier.
Texas - Georgia:
Georgia didn't have much trouble with Texas 6 weeks ago. They jumped out 23-0 at half, and beat them 30-15. They had a wake-up call last week against Georgia Tech. Texas has been winning, but their offense hasn't been as good the last month, they're only averaging 23 points in their last 3. I think Georgia has the advantage in this one, which would put both of them at 11-2. Tennessee will be 10-2, so this could make a mess in the SEC.
Boise State - UNLV:
UNLV stayed within a TD of BSU last time, and also kept Jeanty under 150. Kind of looks like their scoring offense has fallen off since that loss though, they haven't put away some soft teams (Hawaii, SDSU, Nevada) the way they should have. Have to favor BSU....although I'll be rooting for the Rebels to knock them off. A win will clinch a CFP spot for BSU. They'd probably be severely punished for losing, and fall out of contention...although I'm not sure who'd take the spot.
Arizona State - Iowa State:
Looking at common opponents, ASU has beaten almost all of them more convincingly. They also got beat more convincingly by Texas Tech. It's close, but I think ASU wins this, and finishes 11-2
SMU - Clemson:
The most interesting thing about this match is that Clemson lost last weekend, so they're coming in with something to prove. SMU has beaten all of their opponents worse, and I think has to be favored. If they win, they're in and Clemson is out with loss #4. If Clemson loses...it's chaos.
So...Oregon, Georgia, BSU, SMU, and ASU get berths. Add in Notre Dame. Tennessee sneaks in because they're idle. Texas will stay in because they're at #3 and aren't going to fall that far losing to Georgia. Penn State is pretty likely to get in, unless they get blown out. Ohio State probably stays in, although we don't yet know how far they're going to fall after losing to Michigan. That leaves 2 spots to split between INdiana, Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. This week's CFP will shed a little more light on this, but my guess right now is that Miami is out, Alabama will inexplicably jump over Indiana, and the 2 spots will go to Bama and Indiana.
Also keep an eye on Tulane-Army for the AAC championship. If Tulane wins and UNLV beats Boise State, Tulane might grab the G5 playoff spot.
Oregon - Penn State:
Looks like a pretty decent matchup. PSU lost at home to Ohio State, Oregon beat them at home (but probably shouldn't have). Other common opponents: UW, Wisconsin, Maryland, Illinois, and UCLA. Both teams beat all of them, both had the most trouble with Wisconsin. Oregon scored more against 3 of them, but gave up more against 4. This looks like a dogfight, I give Oregon a slight edge...but that advantage disappears if they come in overconfident.
Oregon most likely makes the playoff even with a loss. If PSU loses, they're 11-2, and still have a shot, but it gets a lot fuzzier.
Texas - Georgia:
Georgia didn't have much trouble with Texas 6 weeks ago. They jumped out 23-0 at half, and beat them 30-15. They had a wake-up call last week against Georgia Tech. Texas has been winning, but their offense hasn't been as good the last month, they're only averaging 23 points in their last 3. I think Georgia has the advantage in this one, which would put both of them at 11-2. Tennessee will be 10-2, so this could make a mess in the SEC.
Boise State - UNLV:
UNLV stayed within a TD of BSU last time, and also kept Jeanty under 150. Kind of looks like their scoring offense has fallen off since that loss though, they haven't put away some soft teams (Hawaii, SDSU, Nevada) the way they should have. Have to favor BSU....although I'll be rooting for the Rebels to knock them off. A win will clinch a CFP spot for BSU. They'd probably be severely punished for losing, and fall out of contention...although I'm not sure who'd take the spot.
Arizona State - Iowa State:
Looking at common opponents, ASU has beaten almost all of them more convincingly. They also got beat more convincingly by Texas Tech. It's close, but I think ASU wins this, and finishes 11-2
SMU - Clemson:
The most interesting thing about this match is that Clemson lost last weekend, so they're coming in with something to prove. SMU has beaten all of their opponents worse, and I think has to be favored. If they win, they're in and Clemson is out with loss #4. If Clemson loses...it's chaos.
So...Oregon, Georgia, BSU, SMU, and ASU get berths. Add in Notre Dame. Tennessee sneaks in because they're idle. Texas will stay in because they're at #3 and aren't going to fall that far losing to Georgia. Penn State is pretty likely to get in, unless they get blown out. Ohio State probably stays in, although we don't yet know how far they're going to fall after losing to Michigan. That leaves 2 spots to split between INdiana, Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. This week's CFP will shed a little more light on this, but my guess right now is that Miami is out, Alabama will inexplicably jump over Indiana, and the 2 spots will go to Bama and Indiana.
Also keep an eye on Tulane-Army for the AAC championship. If Tulane wins and UNLV beats Boise State, Tulane might grab the G5 playoff spot.
