Playoff berths

[95coug]

So, looking to this weekend, the matchups significant to the playoffs (and possibly to our bowl destination) are:

Oregon - Penn State:
Looks like a pretty decent matchup. PSU lost at home to Ohio State, Oregon beat them at home (but probably shouldn't have). Other common opponents: UW, Wisconsin, Maryland, Illinois, and UCLA. Both teams beat all of them, both had the most trouble with Wisconsin. Oregon scored more against 3 of them, but gave up more against 4. This looks like a dogfight, I give Oregon a slight edge...but that advantage disappears if they come in overconfident.
Oregon most likely makes the playoff even with a loss. If PSU loses, they're 11-2, and still have a shot, but it gets a lot fuzzier.

Texas - Georgia:
Georgia didn't have much trouble with Texas 6 weeks ago. They jumped out 23-0 at half, and beat them 30-15. They had a wake-up call last week against Georgia Tech. Texas has been winning, but their offense hasn't been as good the last month, they're only averaging 23 points in their last 3. I think Georgia has the advantage in this one, which would put both of them at 11-2. Tennessee will be 10-2, so this could make a mess in the SEC.

Boise State - UNLV:
UNLV stayed within a TD of BSU last time, and also kept Jeanty under 150. Kind of looks like their scoring offense has fallen off since that loss though, they haven't put away some soft teams (Hawaii, SDSU, Nevada) the way they should have. Have to favor BSU....although I'll be rooting for the Rebels to knock them off. A win will clinch a CFP spot for BSU. They'd probably be severely punished for losing, and fall out of contention...although I'm not sure who'd take the spot.

Arizona State - Iowa State:
Looking at common opponents, ASU has beaten almost all of them more convincingly. They also got beat more convincingly by Texas Tech. It's close, but I think ASU wins this, and finishes 11-2

SMU - Clemson:
The most interesting thing about this match is that Clemson lost last weekend, so they're coming in with something to prove. SMU has beaten all of their opponents worse, and I think has to be favored. If they win, they're in and Clemson is out with loss #4. If Clemson loses...it's chaos.


So...Oregon, Georgia, BSU, SMU, and ASU get berths. Add in Notre Dame. Tennessee sneaks in because they're idle. Texas will stay in because they're at #3 and aren't going to fall that far losing to Georgia. Penn State is pretty likely to get in, unless they get blown out. Ohio State probably stays in, although we don't yet know how far they're going to fall after losing to Michigan. That leaves 2 spots to split between INdiana, Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. This week's CFP will shed a little more light on this, but my guess right now is that Miami is out, Alabama will inexplicably jump over Indiana, and the 2 spots will go to Bama and Indiana.


Also keep an eye on Tulane-Army for the AAC championship. If Tulane wins and UNLV beats Boise State, Tulane might grab the G5 playoff spot.

 

[dgibbons]

So, looking to this weekend, the matchups significant to the playoffs (and possibly to our bowl destination) are:

Oregon - Penn State:
Looks like a pretty decent matchup. PSU lost at home to Ohio State, Oregon beat them at home (but probably shouldn't have). Other common opponents: UW, Wisconsin, Maryland, Illinois, and UCLA. Both teams beat all of them, both had the most trouble with Wisconsin. Oregon scored more against 3 of them, but gave up more against 4. This looks like a dogfight, I give Oregon a slight edge...but that advantage disappears if they come in overconfident.
Oregon most likely makes the playoff even with a loss. If PSU loses, they're 11-2, and still have a shot, but it gets a lot fuzzier.

Texas - Georgia:
Georgia didn't have much trouble with Texas 6 weeks ago. They jumped out 23-0 at half, and beat them 30-15. They had a wake-up call last week against Georgia Tech. Texas has been winning, but their offense hasn't been as good the last month, they're only averaging 23 points in their last 3. I think Georgia has the advantage in this one, which would put both of them at 11-2. Tennessee will be 10-2, so this could make a mess in the SEC.

Boise State - UNLV:
UNLV stayed within a TD of BSU last time, and also kept Jeanty under 150. Kind of looks like their scoring offense has fallen off since that loss though, they haven't put away some soft teams (Hawaii, SDSU, Nevada) the way they should have. Have to favor BSU....although I'll be rooting for the Rebels to knock them off. A win will clinch a CFP spot for BSU. They'd probably be severely punished for losing, and fall out of contention...although I'm not sure who'd take the spot.

Arizona State - Iowa State:
Looking at common opponents, ASU has beaten almost all of them more convincingly. They also got beat more convincingly by Texas Tech. It's close, but I think ASU wins this, and finishes 11-2

SMU - Clemson:
The most interesting thing about this match is that Clemson lost last weekend, so they're coming in with something to prove. SMU has beaten all of their opponents worse, and I think has to be favored. If they win, they're in and Clemson is out with loss #4. If Clemson loses...it's chaos.


So...Oregon, Georgia, BSU, SMU, and ASU get berths. Add in Notre Dame. Tennessee sneaks in because they're idle. Texas will stay in because they're at #3 and aren't going to fall that far losing to Georgia. Penn State is pretty likely to get in, unless they get blown out. Ohio State probably stays in, although we don't yet know how far they're going to fall after losing to Michigan. That leaves 2 spots to split between INdiana, Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. This week's CFP will shed a little more light on this, but my guess right now is that Miami is out, Alabama will inexplicably jump over Indiana, and the 2 spots will go to Bama and Indiana.


Also keep an eye on Tulane-Army for the AAC championship. If Tulane wins and UNLV beats Boise State, Tulane might grab the G5 playoff spot.

Should be interesting to see what Georgia has left in the tank. That was a long game.

Neutral field for Oregon-PSU. I'd call that one a tossup.

Glad to see SMU there. Giving the world of college football the finger with one hand, and cashing their partial share with the other.

 

[CougSinceBirth]

So, looking to this weekend, the matchups significant to the playoffs (and possibly to our bowl destination) are:

Oregon - Penn State:
Looks like a pretty decent matchup. PSU lost at home to Ohio State, Oregon beat them at home (but probably shouldn't have). Other common opponents: UW, Wisconsin, Maryland, Illinois, and UCLA. Both teams beat all of them, both had the most trouble with Wisconsin. Oregon scored more against 3 of them, but gave up more against 4. This looks like a dogfight, I give Oregon a slight edge...but that advantage disappears if they come in overconfident.
Oregon most likely makes the playoff even with a loss. If PSU loses, they're 11-2, and still have a shot, but it gets a lot fuzzier.

Texas - Georgia:
Georgia didn't have much trouble with Texas 6 weeks ago. They jumped out 23-0 at half, and beat them 30-15. They had a wake-up call last week against Georgia Tech. Texas has been winning, but their offense hasn't been as good the last month, they're only averaging 23 points in their last 3. I think Georgia has the advantage in this one, which would put both of them at 11-2. Tennessee will be 10-2, so this could make a mess in the SEC.

Boise State - UNLV:
UNLV stayed within a TD of BSU last time, and also kept Jeanty under 150. Kind of looks like their scoring offense has fallen off since that loss though, they haven't put away some soft teams (Hawaii, SDSU, Nevada) the way they should have. Have to favor BSU....although I'll be rooting for the Rebels to knock them off. A win will clinch a CFP spot for BSU. They'd probably be severely punished for losing, and fall out of contention...although I'm not sure who'd take the spot.

Arizona State - Iowa State:
Looking at common opponents, ASU has beaten almost all of them more convincingly. They also got beat more convincingly by Texas Tech. It's close, but I think ASU wins this, and finishes 11-2

SMU - Clemson:
The most interesting thing about this match is that Clemson lost last weekend, so they're coming in with something to prove. SMU has beaten all of their opponents worse, and I think has to be favored. If they win, they're in and Clemson is out with loss #4. If Clemson loses...it's chaos.


So...Oregon, Georgia, BSU, SMU, and ASU get berths. Add in Notre Dame. Tennessee sneaks in because they're idle. Texas will stay in because they're at #3 and aren't going to fall that far losing to Georgia. Penn State is pretty likely to get in, unless they get blown out. Ohio State probably stays in, although we don't yet know how far they're going to fall after losing to Michigan. That leaves 2 spots to split between INdiana, Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. This week's CFP will shed a little more light on this, but my guess right now is that Miami is out, Alabama will inexplicably jump over Indiana, and the 2 spots will go to Bama and Indiana.


Also keep an eye on Tulane-Army for the AAC championship. If Tulane wins and UNLV beats Boise State, Tulane might grab the G5 playoff spot.

UT/UGA: I think UT hasn't won convincingly but UGA hasn't been as locked-in the past couple of weeks. Plus, it's a been more difficult to win twice against a team in a season. UT outplayed UGA in the second half in Austin, but ran out of steam and time. It will be an interesting game.

 

[Coug90]

Weird not having a dominant SEC team this year. Might be Oregons year, which would be cool cuz then Husky fans can STFU about the NC.

 

[Cougini5591]

I don't think I could handle Nike buying/winning a title.

The only 2 things I have liked about Oregon is when they beat fuw and when we seem to know enough to beat them 2 outta 5 times.

Overall, Oregon football is Gonzaga basketball

 

[95coug]

I don't think I could handle Nike buying/winning a title.

The only 2 things I have liked about Oregon is when they beat fuw and when we seem to know enough to beat them 2 outta 5 times.

Overall, Oregon football is Gonzaga basketball

Satisfaction over Oregon beating UW is pretty short lived for me. It's like being satisfied that Stalin beat Hitler.

 

[Observer11]

Satisfaction over Oregon beating UW is pretty short lived for me. It's like being satisfied that Stalin beat Hitler.

Literally Hitler?

 

[Cougini5591]

Satisfaction over Oregon beating UW is pretty short lived for me. It's like being satisfied that Stalin beat Hitler.

Agreed.

 

[95coug]

Modifying my projections a bit now that the CFP rankings are out.

Oregon, Texas, Penn State are in whether they win or lose. Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Tennessee are in.

Georgia is probably in, but if Texas pounds them, maybe they slide and get passed over.

Indiana is in unless some poll shenanigans occur.

Miami needs both Boise state and SMU to lose, and probably needs Georgia to take a bad loss. Not even sure that would get them in, they need to crank up the PR machine and find a way to get ahead of Alabama. They’re sitting at #12, but the Big 12 champ is going to be outside of the top 12…so only the top 11 are sort of automatic.

Alabama is probably getting in. Maybe if Georgia loses badly they slide behind Miami, but that’s a big if…and I’m still not sure it would make the difference.

If I understand this years bowl selection process right, only Colorado and ASU could be selected ahead of us, and ASU may be in the playoff. That means Alamo, Vegas, or Holiday for us.

If ASU loses their game, Alamo could take either them or Colorado. If ASU wins, Alamo could take Colorado or us.

If Alamo takes Colorado, Vegas has to take ASU. Otherwise, Vegas picks between us and Colorado.

Remaining team gets the Holiday, and everything moves up one slot if ASU wins and makes the CFP. I think Colorado is likely to get picked ahead of us, so I see us in Vegas or San Diego, depending on whether ASU wins or loses.

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

I think Miami needs SMU to win. If Clemson loses they'd have 4 losses. A 1 loss and 2 loss ACC team SHOULD be more meritorious than any 3 loss SEC team that didn't qualify for their conference championship game (Alabama, south Carolina). That's all I have to say about that

 

[Coug90]

I think Miami needs SMU to win. If Clemson loses they'd have 4 losses. A 1 loss and 2 loss ACC team SHOULD be more meritorious than any 3 loss SEC team that didn't qualify for their conference championship game (Alabama, south Carolina). That's all I have to say about that

They will find an excuse to put Bama in. This is a beauty pageant and they’ll take ratings over the best teams every time.

 

[95coug]

They will find an excuse to put Bama in. This is a beauty pageant and they’ll take ratings over the best teams every time.

The controversial decisions also drive viewership. Leaving Miami out and taking Alabama becomes a talking point, which is its own advertising, and maybe a few more people watch to see if Alabama wins. If they make the second round, the narrative shifts to “they said we didn’t belong” and Alabama becomes Cinderella.

Personally, I don’t think Miami OR Alabama deserves a berth. Neither of them has a legitimate claim to being the best team in the country. I’m not sold on Notre dame either - sure they’re 11-1, but their resume sucks. They’ve only played one team that’s ranked - Army, #24. But, they’re Notre Dame, which I think is Latin for “overrated.” They’ll probably get beat in the first round.

 

[Cougini5591]

The controversial decisions also drive viewership. Leaving Miami out and taking Alabama becomes a talking point, which is its own advertising, and maybe a few more people watch to see if Alabama wins. If they make the second round, the narrative shifts to “they said we didn’t belong” and Alabama becomes Cinderella.

Personally, I don’t think Miami OR Alabama deserves a berth. Neither of them has a legitimate claim to being the best team in the country. I’m not sold on Notre dame either - sure they’re 11-1, but their resume sucks. They’ve only played one team that’s ranked - Army, #24. But, they’re Notre Dame, which I think is Latin for “overrated.” They’ll probably get beat in the first round.

Notre Dame doesn't really puss out on playing weaker teams.

They are just smart in setting up what's best for them.

A sh*t load smarter than we have ever been.

NCAA Football has almost always been a money generating... recognition generating business.

 

[Coug90]

The committee lost all credibility when they left a 13-0 P4 team out last year…Not that they had any credibility to begin with.

Sure FSU would have been bagged in the playoff without their QB but it was nonsense that they went undefeated and were left out.

They might as well throw darts at the wall, that process would make more sense than whatever they are doing now.

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

Alabama aside, it IS better than the previous system. I think it's nice having Indiana, SMU, and Boise St and potentially Iowa St getting to take a swing at the pinata. Taihtsat

Edit to add with BSU even getting to not only host a game but getting a bye. That could be us some day.

 

[UberCougars]

Keeping Miami out shoves a big fat stick into the eye 👁️ of NIL and why a player in a good spot might want to STAY and finish what they started.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Modifying my projections a bit now that the CFP rankings are out.

Oregon, Texas, Penn State are in whether they win or lose. Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Tennessee are in.

Georgia is probably in, but if Texas pounds them, maybe they slide and get passed over.

Indiana is in unless some poll shenanigans occur.

Miami needs both Boise state and SMU to lose, and probably needs Georgia to take a bad loss. Not even sure that would get them in, they need to crank up the PR machine and find a way to get ahead of Alabama. They’re sitting at #12, but the Big 12 champ is going to be outside of the top 12…so only the top 11 are sort of automatic.

Alabama is probably getting in. Maybe if Georgia loses badly they slide behind Miami, but that’s a big if…and I’m still not sure it would make the difference.

If I understand this years bowl selection process right, only Colorado and ASU could be selected ahead of us, and ASU may be in the playoff. That means Alamo, Vegas, or Holiday for us.

If ASU loses their game, Alamo could take either them or Colorado. If ASU wins, Alamo could take Colorado or us.

If Alamo takes Colorado, Vegas has to take ASU. Otherwise, Vegas picks between us and Colorado.

Remaining team gets the Holiday, and everything moves up one slot if ASU wins and makes the CFP. I think Colorado is likely to get picked ahead of us, so I see us in Vegas or San Diego, depending on whether ASU wins or loses.

I follow all of this except "Vegas has to take ASU". Why is that? They are #3 in the pecking order after Alamo and Holiday, correct? Also, I read somewhere that Colorado doesn't want to go to the Alamo Bowl, they want the Holiday instead. Regardless, we hope for ASU to win (how the F did they ever get there?) and we get the Alamo or Holiday. LV worst case scenario. Some solace after this epic meltdown......

Oh and Alamo is against a Big-12 opponent while Holiday is ACC, correct? Reason for ASU and Colorado to be unattractive.....

 

[95coug]

I follow all of this except "Vegas has to take ASU". Why is that? They are #3 in the pecking order after Alamo and Holiday, correct? Also, I read somewhere that Colorado doesn't want to go to the Alamo Bowl, they want the Holiday instead. Regardless, we hope for ASU to win (how the F did they ever get there?) and we get the Alamo or Holiday. LV worst case scenario. Some solace after this epic meltdown......

Oh and Alamo is against a Big-12 opponent while Holiday is ACC, correct? Reason for ASU and Colorado to be unattractive.....

From what I read, Vegas is #2 now. ASU has 10 wins, Colorado has 9, and we have 8. Each bowl has to take the team with the most wins or within 1 win of the most. So Alamo can take ASU or Colorado, but not us. If they take Colorado, Vegas has to take ASU.

 

[LoveJeffersonFanClub]

Alabama aside, it IS better than the previous system. I think it's nice having Indiana, SMU, and Boise St and potentially Iowa St getting to take a swing at the pinata. Taihtsat

Edit to add with BSU even getting to not only host a game but getting a bye. That could be us some day.

It has taken me a couple of months to figure out what TAIHTSAT means. I finally put it all together and you add an edit to your post. So maybe TAIHTSAT isn't AYHTSAT

 

[Flatlandcoug]

From what I read, Vegas is #2 now. ASU has 10 wins, Colorado has 9, and we have 8. Each bowl has to take the team with the most wins or within 1 win of the most. So Alamo can take ASU or Colorado, but not us. If they take Colorado, Vegas has to take ASU.

I've read contradictory things on the bowl selection order. I recently read that Vegas and Holiday alternate in selection and this year Holiday is #2 and Vegas is #3. Every time I look, it seems like I get a different answer.

As far as I can tell, that means that we go to the Holiday Bowl if ASU makes the playoff and we go to Vegas if they lose to Iowa State.

 

[Wazzubrooz]

The controversial decisions also drive viewership. Leaving Miami out and taking Alabama becomes a talking point, which is its own advertising, and maybe a few more people watch to see if Alabama wins. If they make the second round, the narrative shifts to “they said we didn’t belong” and Alabama becomes Cinderella.

Personally, I don’t think Miami OR Alabama deserves a berth. Neither of them has a legitimate claim to being the best team in the country. I’m not sold on Notre dame either - sure they’re 11-1, but their resume sucks. They’ve only played one team that’s ranked - Army, #24. But, they’re Notre Dame, which I think is Latin for “overrated.” They’ll probably get beat in the first round.

Bummer will always be in… ugh.