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Realignment - time to get real

Loyal Coug1

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Aug 24, 2022
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Ok guys. This non-autonomy relegation is a bummer but not surprising or undeserved. Why should the Pac-2 get voting power equivalent to the 12-14-18 (I can't keep track) team P4?

So. Let's quit F-ing around hoping for a Big-12 invite (they don't want us and it would suck anyway), or some far-flung ACC restructure (won't happen, it would REALLY suck and they don't want us anyway).

Do the reverse merger with the Mtn West ASAP before one or more of them gets plucked out from under us. Save a few bucks on our 2025 affiliation option and - wow - maybe actually share in some media money and NCAA allocations to be earned in '25 and later. Won't cost us a dime and will save money as we jettison most of all of the Pac-2 Administration in favor of Gloria and gang.

Salvage what we can from the current bowl affiliations before contracts expire in 2026. Which makes it imperative that we move SOON. Alamo, Holiday, Sun and Vegas in order of preference/payout. With San Diego and Las Vegas as new Pac-12/14 hometowns, we may stand a chance of keeping the Holiday and Vegas. Sun Bowl can go away IMHO.

Stretch the cash windfall out as far as we can as we readjust. Don't forget the NCAA BB payouts in years 3-6, which we get only if the Pac remains in existence.

I am aware that the above concept has never been thrown out by the All-Knowing and Superior-Intellect Loyal One, so I favor you all by spelling it out here. Feel free to chime in with roaring approval. :)
 
I wouldn't expect the Alamo, Holiday, or Vegas bowls to really want to keep a pseudo-MWC/P2 affiliation.

Alamo can make it more regional. Holiday will just plug in two big conferences, and Vegas will try to up their prestige with like a B1G/SEC matchup.
 
It is inevitable that we end up merging with at least a portion of the Mountain West. That said, if we (and the programs that join us) want to be taken seriously as a major conference, we can't have teams like Hawaii, San Jose State, Nevada and New Mexico in the mix. That may sound elitist, hypocritical or delusional...but it's reality. Of course, most of that discussion depends on what the MWC teams want out of the deal. If they look forward to moving away from some of their lower tier programs...great. If they don't want to, we have to accept that as part of the deal.

Still, a football conference with San Jose State or the other lower tier schools will never get taken seriously. It probably doesn't matter in the bigger picture anyway, because no matter what happens the B1G and SEC don't respect anyone else and all of the battered wife conferences are just accepting that role.

As far as the bowl games go, I think a revamped MWC has a chance at capturing some of the other bowls. At some point, getting the 9th or 10th best team out of the B1G isn't going to seem that great.
 
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It is inevitable that we end up merging with at least a portion of the Mountain West. That said, if we (and the programs that join us) want to be taken seriously as a major conference, we can't have teams like Hawaii, San Jose State, Nevada and New Mexico in the mix. That may sound elitist, hypocritical or delusional...but it's reality. Of course, most of that discussion depends on what the MWC teams want out of the deal. If they look forward to moving away from some of their lower tier programs...great. If they don't want to, we have to accept that as part of the deal.

Still, a football conference with San Jose State or the other lower tier schools will never get taken seriously. It probably doesn't matter in the bigger picture anyway, because no matter what happens the B1G and SEC don't respect anyone else and all of the battered wife conferences are just accepting that role.

As far as the bowl games go, I think a revamped MWC has a chance at capturing some of the other bowls. At some point, getting the 9th or 10th best team out of the B1G isn't going to seem that great.
Curious why you pick those schools to exclude specifically?

If the pac wants to be taken seriously, its all about $$$$. Which schools have the most money, the most donors, and the most tv viewership. Hard stop.

Maybe those schools are the bottom of the barrel for those metrics; I don't know. But it 100% needs to be verified and the decision made thusly.
 
It is inevitable that we end up merging with at least a portion of the Mountain West. That said, if we (and the programs that join us) want to be taken seriously as a major conference, we can't have teams like Hawaii, San Jose State, Nevada and New Mexico in the mix. That may sound elitist, hypocritical or delusional...but it's reality. Of course, most of that discussion depends on what the MWC teams want out of the deal. If they look forward to moving away from some of their lower tier programs...great. If they don't want to, we have to accept that as part of the deal.

Still, a football conference with San Jose State or the other lower tier schools will never get taken seriously. It probably doesn't matter in the bigger picture anyway, because no matter what happens the B1G and SEC don't respect anyone else and all of the battered wife conferences are just accepting that role.

As far as the bowl games go, I think a revamped MWC has a chance at capturing some of the other bowls. At some point, getting the 9th or 10th best team out of the B1G isn't going to seem that great.
Ok. So spend every dime of our cash to pay the "portion" of the MW to come? That is what you are saying.

BTW, WSU's all time record against Hawaii? 2-3. SJSU, 8-4-1.

The Mtn West is the strongest G5 Conference, even with these "lower tier" schools. Which in the Pac-12, apparently, were WSU and OSU. And yes you are being elitist and hypocritical.
 
Ok guys. This non-autonomy relegation is a bummer but not surprising or undeserved. Why should the Pac-2 get voting power equivalent to the 12-14-18 (I can't keep track) team P4?

So. Let's quit F-ing around hoping for a Big-12 invite (they don't want us and it would suck anyway), or some far-flung ACC restructure (won't happen, it would REALLY suck and they don't want us anyway).

Do the reverse merger with the Mtn West ASAP before one or more of them gets plucked out from under us. Save a few bucks on our 2025 affiliation option and - wow - maybe actually share in some media money and NCAA allocations to be earned in '25 and later. Won't cost us a dime and will save money as we jettison most of all of the Pac-2 Administration in favor of Gloria and gang.

Salvage what we can from the current bowl affiliations before contracts expire in 2026. Which makes it imperative that we move SOON. Alamo, Holiday, Sun and Vegas in order of preference/payout. With San Diego and Las Vegas as new Pac-12/14 hometowns, we may stand a chance of keeping the Holiday and Vegas. Sun Bowl can go away IMHO.

Stretch the cash windfall out as far as we can as we readjust. Don't forget the NCAA BB payouts in years 3-6, which we get only if the Pac remains in existence.

I am aware that the above concept has never been thrown out by the All-Knowing and Superior-Intellect Loyal One, so I favor you all by spelling it out here. Feel free to chime in with roaring approval. :)
What is going to suck is more than likely your current Prez Shulz (sp) is going to come out at some point and say he is going to leave it to the next President to decide the Pac12 future. May be another fking delay.
 
Curious why you pick those schools to exclude specifically?

If the pac wants to be taken seriously, its all about $$$$. Which schools have the most money, the most donors, and the most tv viewership. Hard stop.

Maybe those schools are the bottom of the barrel for those metrics; I don't know. But it 100% needs to be verified and the decision made thusly.

You could add Utah State too but those four in particular are the lowest money generators in the conference based on 2022-23 data. Are there other variables in play? I'm sure. I didn't list Utah State because they've had five seasons with 9+ wins in the 10 or so years including three seasons with 11 wins. None of the others have had any kind of success that extended past one season.
 
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From a TV market and a competitive standpoint, I only see BSU, UNLV, SDSU and Fresno St as the adds that move the TV needle. You need a minimum of 8. So you likely add CSU and maybe Utah State. (Salt Lake and Denver).

Get the best TV deal you can, split the pot 8 ways, and be done with it for now.

Loyal thinks the ACC west is a pipe dream, but I personally think it's in the cards (and the best move) as Stanford and Cal want a western division to compete in. (travel reduction).
 
From a TV market and a competitive standpoint, I only see BSU, UNLV, SDSU and Fresno St as the adds that move the TV needle. You need a minimum of 8. So you likely add CSU and maybe Utah State. (Salt Lake and Denver).

Get the best TV deal you can, split the pot 8 ways, and be done with it for now.

Loyal thinks the ACC west is a pipe dream, but I personally think it's in the cards (and the best move) as Stanford and Cal want a western division to compete in. (travel reduction).
The fallacy to this is that Stanford and Cal went to the extreme to get away from WSU and OSU in the first place. They were desperate to align with schools they thought were more academically comparable, even though they would take a financial bath initially, and are going to face those travel difficulties you refer to.

Now you think they are going to come back and join in with Boise St JC, Fresneck and schools like that willingly?

Maybe? But there’s going to have to be a lot more compelling reason than travel. They already faced that and took that path……..and did it for a pittance, financially.
 
The fallacy to this is that Stanford and Cal went to the extreme to get away from WSU and OSU in the first place. They were desperate to align with schools they thought were more academically comparable, even though they would take a financial bath initially, and are going to face those travel difficulties you refer to.

Now you think they are going to come back and join in with Boise St JC, Fresneck and schools like that willingly?

Maybe? But there’s going to have to be a lot more compelling reason than travel. They already faced that and took that path……..and did it for a pittance, financially.
Stanford and Cal didn't want to be left outside a power 4 conference. They took the only choice, which was the ACC, brokered by ND.

I don't believe their move was anti WSU or OSU. It was they didn't want to stuck with the only option rebuild the Pac-12 with Fresno and Boise.

If the ACC west were to take shape, WSU and OSU would be candidates with maybe SDSU (a school Cal and Stanford were fine with to join the Pac-12). Cal and Stanford want no part in Fresno, Boise and to a degree UNLV for reasons that are obvious.
 
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Our best move is to wait a while and not get overly anxious. There is no hurry. If the rest of college football was stable, there would be no reason to wait. But the thing that has to be fully grasped is that the rest of college football is currently a house of cards. We are better off waiting until we are up against the MWC buyout deadline to do anything, and depending upon circumstances, it might make sense to wait beyond that (though waiting past that point would probably tilt the strategy from a selective merger to a full merger). In any event, there is no need to p*ss down our leg. Let's see how the ACC mess unfolds...
 
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Utah State and Nevada are borderline elite basketball programs out West. That's at least something to consider. The State of Utah is also one of the most rapidly growing markets on the West coast.
 
Our best move is to wait a while and not get overly anxious. There is no hurry. If the rest of college football was stable, there would be no reason to wait. But the thing that has to be fully grasped is that the rest of college football is currently a house of cards. We are better off waiting until we are up against the MWC buyout deadline to do anything, and depending upon circumstances, it might make sense to wait beyond that (though waiting past that point would probably tilt the strategy from a selective merger to a full merger). In any event, there is no need to p*ss down our leg. Let's see how the ACC mess unfolds...
Gee, where have I heard that before?
 
OK, that is worth a grin. But realistically, the MWC option (or options) is not going anywhere.
The only thing I'll say is that there are a lot of moving parts and contracts and tv deals and, and, and...

While you're not wrong, it is my opinion that if the two schools think that the MWC is the best option then the right thing to do is tell them and get the ball going. Its pretty lousy - and we know from experience - keeping other entities dangling on a string and then leave them in a lurch when something sexier comes along at the 11th hour.

I guess the decision has to be made - sooner than later - is WSU moving forward as a P5 school or a G5 school? Not that they have much choice, but it would steer the decisions going forward.
 
What is going to suck is more than likely your current Prez Shulz (sp) is going to come out at some point and say he is going to leave it to the next President to decide the Pac12 future. May be another fking delay.
Can't. I don't remember who wrote the article, but not long ago I read one that laid out our realistic timeline in reverse. Because of the contract and negotiation delays, WSU and OSU really need to have their plans pretty well in motion before spring of '25. They need to get teams on board for a new conference and get a new media deal in place. There's no way WSU can wait for a new president to be in office (June/July 2025) to start that process.
 
Stanford and Cal didn't want to be left outside a power 4 conference. They took the only choice, which was the ACC, brokered by ND.

I don't believe their move was anti WSU or OSU. It was they didn't want to stuck with the only option rebuild the Pac-12 with Fresno and Boise.

If the ACC west were to take shape, WSU and OSU would be candidates with maybe SDSU (a school Cal and Stanford were fine with to join the Pac-12). Cal and Stanford want no part in Fresno, Boise and to a degree UNLV for reasons that are obvious.
Well……UNLV is actually a pretty good school. IIRC, a Tier 1 research university, yadda, yadda.

But the fact remains that Furd and Kal bailed on us when they could have stayed around and worked to rebuild the PAC. And PART of that was them aligning with what they considered “like level universities” from the get go. They did NOT consider WSU and OSU at that level. They could probably have wrangled admission to Big12 but wanted no part of that either, for some of the same reasons.

Yet they took places in a conference that substantially low balled them. Jeebus. Stanford could have survived for some time as a semi-independent, ala ND. They weren’t that desperate to join a Power 4. Cal was/is heavily in debt. Much more so than WSU. A Power conference would have made more fiscal sense for them, except for the fact they signed on for a pittance.

It’s not just that they wanted a power conference. They both wanted one that aligned with their “elite academic” status. And they didn’t see the PAC, with WSU and OSU as the remaining anchors, filling that bill, now or in the forseeable future.

This “dream” of a west coast pod of the ACC is a target with so many moving pieces and so many circumstances that have to have the stars align perfectly for it to happen, that I believe it to be more of a pipe dream than a reality.

And it would certainly take leadership at our helm that would be unprecedented to date.

Regardless, I hope for the best possible outcome for our Cougs, whatever it may be.
 
Cal and Furd as the sole west coast members of the ACC is unsustainable. I have no doubt they wanted OSU and WSU to come along for the ride but the rest of the ACC gained nothing by adding us except for more west coast trips. They only took that option because it was the cleanest dirty shirt in the pile.

Clemson and FSU reaching a settlement with ACC to leave is our best shot to get into a “power” conference and I use that term loosely.
 
Well……UNLV is actually a pretty good school. IIRC, a Tier 1 research university, yadda, yadda.

But the fact remains that Furd and Kal bailed on us when they could have stayed around and worked to rebuild the PAC. And PART of that was them aligning with what they considered “like level universities” from the get go. They did NOT consider WSU and OSU at that level. They could probably have wrangled admission to Big12 but wanted no part of that either, for some of the same reasons.

Yet they took places in a conference that substantially low balled them. Jeebus. Stanford could have survived for some time as a semi-independent, ala ND. They weren’t that desperate to join a Power 4. Cal was/is heavily in debt. Much more so than WSU. A Power conference would have made more fiscal sense for them, except for the fact they signed on for a pittance.

It’s not just that they wanted a power conference. They both wanted one that aligned with their “elite academic” status. And they didn’t see the PAC, with WSU and OSU as the remaining anchors, filling that bill, now or in the forseeable future.

This “dream” of a west coast pod of the ACC is a target with so many moving pieces and so many circumstances that have to have the stars align perfectly for it to happen, that I believe it to be more of a pipe dream than a reality.

And it would certainly take leadership at our helm that would be unprecedented to date.

Regardless, I hope for the best possible outcome for our Cougs, whatever it may be.
WSU should be tied at the hip with UNLV. Daughter graduated from there. She hated UW and then transferred. Vegas is a sleeping giant, AND it has a sweet fight song and the band plays Viva Las Vegas 5 times during games! Bring Hey Reb back we are golden!
 
WSU should be tied at the hip with UNLV. Daughter graduated from there. She hated UW and then transferred. Vegas is a sleeping giant, AND it has a sweet fight song and the band plays Viva Las Vegas 5 times during games! Bring Hey Reb back we are golden!

My wife still has PTSD from a Rebel fan yelling, "Move the chains" when they got first downs in 2012. Of course, by the end of the game, they weren't saying it that often. Still...pretty close game.
 
My wife still has PTSD from a Rebel fan yelling, "Move the chains" when they got first downs in 2012. Of course, by the end of the game, they weren't saying it that often. Still...pretty close game.
We played UNLV in 2012? Geezus, my memory is getting bad. Or my trauma response from the previous 4 years was still kicking in.
 
Well……UNLV is actually a pretty good school. IIRC, a Tier 1 research university, yadda, yadda.

But the fact remains that Furd and Kal bailed on us when they could have stayed around and worked to rebuild the PAC. And PART of that was them aligning with what they considered “like level universities” from the get go. They did NOT consider WSU and OSU at that level. They could probably have wrangled admission to Big12 but wanted no part of that either, for some of the same reasons.

Yet they took places in a conference that substantially low balled them. Jeebus. Stanford could have survived for some time as a semi-independent, ala ND. They weren’t that desperate to join a Power 4. Cal was/is heavily in debt. Much more so than WSU. A Power conference would have made more fiscal sense for them, except for the fact they signed on for a pittance.

It’s not just that they wanted a power conference. They both wanted one that aligned with their “elite academic” status. And they didn’t see the PAC, with WSU and OSU as the remaining anchors, filling that bill, now or in the forseeable future.

This “dream” of a west coast pod of the ACC is a target with so many moving pieces and so many circumstances that have to have the stars align perfectly for it to happen, that I believe it to be more of a pipe dream than a reality.

And it would certainly take leadership at our helm that would be unprecedented to date.

Regardless, I hope for the best possible outcome for our Cougs, whatever it may be.
Cal and Furd panicked. The betrayal caught them as unaware as it caught us. They had more options, being in a larger market, but they still felt pressure to do SOMETHING RIGHT NOW and as a result, they took a really bad deal. With time to think, I suspect they agree with most of your logic.
 
More fun facts. Per the graphic linked below, WSU had lower attendance/game in 2023 (28,023) than all but 3 P5 schools.

Also, we would have ranked 4th as compared to the MW. 6th if you go with 2022 figures.

Montana (26,978) damn near beat us in 2023.

 
I wouldn't expect the Alamo, Holiday, or Vegas bowls to really want to keep a pseudo-MWC/P2 affiliation.

Alamo can make it more regional. Holiday will just plug in two big conferences, and Vegas will try to up their prestige with like a B1G/SEC matchup.
The Holiday Bowl has not faired well. It might get relegated too.
 
Our best move is to wait a while and not get overly anxious. There is no hurry. If the rest of college football was stable, there would be no reason to wait. But the thing that has to be fully grasped is that the rest of college football is currently a house of cards. We are better off waiting until we are up against the MWC buyout deadline to do anything, and depending upon circumstances, it might make sense to wait beyond that (though waiting past that point would probably tilt the strategy from a selective merger to a full merger). In any event, there is no need to p*ss down our leg. Let's see how the ACC mess unfolds...
I agree. The MWC seems like it will be there as an option. Let the realignment finish shaking out.
 
More fun facts. Per the graphic linked below, WSU had lower attendance/game in 2023 (28,023) than all but 3 P5 schools.

Also, we would have ranked 4th as compared to the MW. 6th if you go with 2022 figures.

Montana (26,978) damn near beat us in 2023.

Why does attendance matter in realignment? TV ratings barely seem to and the TV deals are what is driving realignment.
 
WSU should be tied at the hip with UNLV. Daughter graduated from there. She hated UW and then transferred. Vegas is a sleeping giant, AND it has a sweet fight song and the band plays Viva Las Vegas 5 times during games! Bring Hey Reb back we are golden!
@whoisyaodaddy

A nice benefit a lot of people don't know is that for someone like your daughter who may have children or even grandchildren she is eligible for the Nevada Prepaid Tuition Program. She is eligible just because she graduated from a Nevada Public University. She is eligible regardless of where she currently resides. She can purchase tuition at today's rate for her children and/or grandchildren at in-state tuition rates. Make sure she knows this if she is not aware. She can pay for tuition now and not have to worry about future costs. Not many states have a program like this.
 
Unless you think that the MWC will not be an option in 2026, why is there urgency?
Well, several reasons.
1. the MW media contract expires in 2 years. There is already talk about it. Way better for all involved if it is the new Pac-12/14 negotiating than an uncertain MW.
2. The current Pac bowl contracts expire in 2 years. Best to have the new Pac 12/14 in place well in advance of that if we want to try to salvage any of them. Not sure about the MW Bowl agreements (I'll find out), but could be similar if they want to dump the crappiest ones in favor of ours.
3. In our current affiliation agreements, we can't win the league in FB, and are paying through the nose for the privilege of playing the MW. With no media rights except whatever pittance we can get from the CW (for which the FY25 budget is $-0-). I guess we are eligible to win league in the wcc in BB, but we don't get to share in any NCAA money generated by the league - even if our teams generate it. And we are paying to play, although much less than in FB.
4. I would not at all bank on the MW waiting around on us for 2 years. This realignment that you speak of could quite easily stretch over to SDSU and/or UNLV. Or the MW could just say F-you we are just fine as we are if we jack them around for too long.
5. Our cash windfall(s) are already being spent, and it would be stupid to waste one dime of it on luring TBD teams into a new Pac. Which we need to maintain to get our NCAA money (I think $30 million in years 3-6). Not chump change for 2 teams to split.
6. I have yet to hear of any other realignment scenarios that are realistic and/or that don't just suck generally. A Western ACC pod including a handful of MW teams that we pay to have join? What f-ing ever. The Big-12? That ship has sailed and ain't coming back.

I'm sure there are more reasons. Oh yeah - #7. The sooner we reverse merge, the sooner we can close the existing Pac-12 offices and turn the MW's into the Pac-12/14. How many millions is that costing us currently?
 
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Well, several reasons.
1. the MW media contract expires in 2 years. There is already talk about it. Way better for all involved if it is the new Pac-12/14 negotiating than an uncertain MW.
2. The current Pac bowl contracts expire in 2 years. Best to have the new Pac 12/14 in place well in advance of that if we want to try to salvage any of them. Not sure about the MW Bowl agreements (I'll find out), but could be similar if they want to dump the crappiest ones in favor of ours.
3. In our current affiliation agreements, we can't win the league in FB, and are paying through the nose for the privilege of playing the MW. With no media rights except whatever pittance we can get from the CW (for which the FY25 budget is $-0-). I guess we are eligible to win league in the wcc in BB, but we don't get to share in any NCAA money generated by the league - even if our teams generate it. And we are paying to play, although much less than in FB.
4. I would not at all bank on the MW waiting around on us for 2 years. This realignment that you speak of could quite easily stretch over to SDSU and/or UNLV. Or the MW could just say F-you we are just fine as we are if we jack them around for too long.
5. Our cash windfall(s) are already being spent, and it would be stupid to waste one dime of it on luring TBD teams into a new Pac. Which we need to maintain to get our NCAA money (I think $30 million in years 3-6). Not chump change for 2 teams to split.
6. I have yet to hear of any other realignment scenarios that are realistic and/or that don't just suck generally. A Western ACC pod including a handful of MW teams that we pay to have join? What f-ing ever. The Big-12? That ship has sailed and ain't coming back.

I'm sure there are more reasons. Oh yeah - #7. The sooner we reverse merge, the sooner we can close the existing Pac-12 offices and turn the MW's into the Pac-12/14. How many millions is that costing us currently?
I guess I'll just talk to myself and perpetuate this thread. My insightful and information-filled posts are the only ones worth reading anyway :)

So the SEC (link) dismisses that stupid super-conference notion as a non-starter. Good.


Cue Maxwell Smart talking into his shoe, and under the cone of silence, ala Get Smart, I know conversations need to be on the QT. That said, WTF is going on? The Pac-2 cannot sit around for the next year or two wondering, hoping and wishing for some mystical realignment to take place that will lift us back into the arms of the P4. Any such fantasy scenario would suck anyway. Cross-country travel, probably some shit affiliate arrangement for our minor sports.

So, and I know I'm starting to sound like another poster, just get with the Mtn West, take our lumps, save our tens of millions for all the rainy days to come, and get on with it. With f-ing smile and some feigned excitement about our new mates, many of whom are a lot like WSU.
 
I guess I'll just talk to myself and perpetuate this thread. My insightful and information-filled posts are the only ones worth reading anyway :)

So the SEC (link) dismisses that stupid super-conference notion as a non-starter. Good.


Cue Maxwell Smart talking into his shoe, and under the cone of silence, ala Get Smart, I know conversations need to be on the QT. That said, WTF is going on? The Pac-2 cannot sit around for the next year or two wondering, hoping and wishing for some mystical realignment to take place that will lift us back into the arms of the P4. Any such fantasy scenario would suck anyway. Cross-country travel, probably some shit affiliate arrangement for our minor sports.

So, and I know I'm starting to sound like another poster, just get with the Mtn West, take our lumps, save our tens of millions for all the rainy days to come, and get on with it. With f-ing smile and some feigned excitement about our new mates, many of whom are a lot like WSU.
Are the Pac2 locked into the WCC for 2 years? Or is it like the football Scheduling Agreement where it's a one year with an option to do a second? I don't have a feel for how long we have to wait this thing out.
 
That is a good link. That WCC agreement is all Expense and Zero Revenue for you guys. You've given up all media rights for both home and away games plus zero Tourney units if you get into the Tourney. The MWC agreement would have had a higher entry fee but I would think you would have earned more than a million dollars in basketball media revenue.

We need to get this Merger into the Pac12 going. We are wasting time and money.
 
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