Since some threads have devolved into...

[How_did_this_happen?]

...a level of absurdity that is unrecoverable...

Let's take a stab at buy/sell/hold teams like stocks for the future. Basically prospects for each program for the next couple of seasons. Assume you have a holding in each team now.

Going in alphabetical order, here is my stab at it:
Team/Pac12 record '18
1. Arizona (4-5) ; sell
2. ASU (5-4); hold
3. Colorado (2-7); hold
4. Furd (6-3); sell
5. Kal (4-5); buy
6. Oregon (5-4); hmmm...hold
7. OSU (1-8); buy
8. UCLA (3-6); buy
9. USC (4-5); buy
10. Utah (6-3): hold
11. UW (7-2); hold
12. WSU (7-2); sell (I am a half glass empty guy...so not a liquidate all holdings position)

Thoughts?

 

[HHusky]

I'm probably a hold on USC, but I otherwise pretty much agree.

 

[CougInSpain]

...a level of absurdity that is unrecoverable...

Let's take a stab at buy/sell/hold teams like stocks for the future. Basically prospects for each program for the next couple of seasons. Assume you have a holding in each team now.

Going in alphabetical order, here is my stab at it:
Team/Pac12 record '18
1. Arizona (4-5) ; sell
2. ASU (5-4); hold
3. Colorado (2-7); hold
4. Furd (6-3); sell
5. Kal (4-5); buy
6. Oregon (5-4); hmmm...hold
7. OSU (1-8); buy
8. UCLA (3-6); buy
9. USC (4-5); buy
10. Utah (6-3): hold
11. UW (7-2); hold
12. WSU (7-2); sell (I am a half glass empty guy...so not a liquidate all holdings position)

Thoughts?

I am selling ASU, Kal and UO.. Holding on WSU, USC and OSU but everything else is legit

 

[PINGDUDE4]

I'm probably a hold on USC, but I otherwise pretty much agree.

Too funny, you will get a chance to see the wisdom of that statement in late Sept. of next season.

You obviously do not watch much football outside of Washington. But a little secret , Kingsbury is by far the most innovative Offensive mind in college football. Anybody in an actual football state like Texas can tell you that. Does not have the overall demeanor for a Head Coach. He is back in his comfort zone being OC, with more weapons at USC than he has ever had the opportunity to work with. USC pulled the coup of the offseason with that hire.

 

[HHusky]

Too funny, you will get a chance to see the wisdom of that statement in late Sept. of next season.

You obviously do not watch much football outside of Washington. But a little secret , Kingsbury is by far the most innovative Offensive mind in college football. Anybody in an actual football state like Texas can tell you that. Does not have the overall demeanor for a Head Coach. He is back in his comfort zone being OC, with more weapons at USC than he has ever had the opportunity to work with. USC pulled the coup of the offseason with that hire.

The jury is still out on whether the Air Raid is simply an offense designed to compensate for talent deficiencies or an offense that great talent can make greater. I'm thrilled to have USC join the ranks of soft teams. I strongly suspect this is a move in that direction.

 

[CougPatrol]

The jury is still out on whether the Air Raid is simply an offense designed to compensate for talent deficiencies or an offense that great talent can make greater. I'm thrilled to have USC join the ranks of soft teams. I strongly suspect this is a move in that direction.

USC has the recruiting resources to be a lot more varied in their version of the air raid. Their RBs can take it to the house. Their WRs are elite. They’ll look like Oklahoma, I fear. The question is, can they maintain their defensive reputation?

 

[Flatlandcoug]

The jury is still out on whether the Air Raid is simply an offense designed to compensate for talent deficiencies or an offense that great talent can make greater. I'm thrilled to have USC join the ranks of soft teams. I strongly suspect this is a move in that direction.

Your comment really shows off your ignorance nicely. Everyone in the world knows that the world of college football is incorporating more air raid concepts all the time and there was an article earlier this year about the introduction of Mayfield and Mahomes into the NFL is finally starting to convince those teams that Air Raid principles are effective. Nobody believes that USC is suddenly going to start passing the ball 80% of the time. CougPatrol has it right in the fact that bringing a guy like Kingsbury to LA just means that they will turn into another Oklahoma and as he said, it's just a question of whether or not they keep the offense/defense equation balanced along the way.

It's funny that you don't realize that Oklahoma won a national championship in 2000 with guys running a modified version of Leach's offense.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

...a level of absurdity that is unrecoverable...

Let's take a stab at buy/sell/hold teams like stocks for the future. Basically prospects for each program for the next couple of seasons. Assume you have a holding in each team now.

Going in alphabetical order, here is my stab at it:
Team/Pac12 record '18
1. Arizona (4-5) ; sell
2. ASU (5-4); hold
3. Colorado (2-7); hold
4. Furd (6-3); sell
5. Kal (4-5); buy
6. Oregon (5-4); hmmm...hold
7. OSU (1-8); buy
8. UCLA (3-6); buy
9. USC (4-5); buy
10. Utah (6-3): hold
11. UW (7-2); hold
12. WSU (7-2); sell (I am a half glass empty guy...so not a liquidate all holdings position)

Thoughts?

Looking at next season only, and assuming you have to have a balance between buying and selling........

Arizona - buy (I think Tate is much better in year 2)
Oregon - buy (Nike money always gets you good recruits, they can't mess it up forever, can they?)
UCLA - buy (already playing better as the season went on)
USC - buy (Helton's future relies on this and he knows it, plus Kingsbury will help a lot)

ASU - hold (could be a light buy, but everyone thought they exceeded expectations this year)
UW - hold (nowhere to go but down, but we've been saying that for a couple years)
OSU - hold (nowhere to go but up, but I don't see it in 2019)
Furd - hold (could be a light sell, it feels like Shaw's finally fading a bit)

Cal - sell (favorable schedule in 2018 is gone, these poor bastards play UW and Ole Miss early and have a lot of tough games on the schedule)
CU - sell (this year they flirted with a bowl, but they'll have a small reset with the new coach)
Utah - sell (a lot of things went in their favor this year and if the two LA schools are rising, someone's got to fall)
WSU - sell (only because of uncertainty at QB.....if that works out.....we become a hold)

 

[HHusky]

Your comment really shows off your ignorance nicely. Everyone in the world knows that the world of college football is incorporating more air raid concepts all the time and there was an article earlier this year about the introduction of Mayfield and Mahomes into the NFL is finally starting to convince those teams that Air Raid principles are effective. Nobody believes that USC is suddenly going to start passing the ball 80% of the time. CougPatrol has it right in the fact that bringing a guy like Kingsbury to LA just means that they will turn into another Oklahoma and as he said, it's just a question of whether or not they keep the offense/defense equation balanced along the way.

It's funny that you don't realize that Oklahoma won a national championship in 2000 with guys running a modified version of Leach's offense.

So if Leach was coaching USC they’d run half the time? Like Oklahoma 2000?

 

[Flatlandcoug]

So if Leach was coaching USC they’d run half the time? Like Oklahoma 2000?

I'm sorry that I wasted a couple minutes of my life responding to you. Go back to your own board. The only value that you bring is that if we printed off your posts, it would give us something to wipe our asses with. F#ck off. I'm bored with you.

 

[HHusky]

I'm sorry that I wasted a couple minutes of my life responding to you. Go back to your own board. The only value that you bring is that if we printed off your posts, it would give us something to wipe our asses with. F#ck off. I'm bored with you.

I thought we were having a nice discussion. You were explaining to me that Oklahoma ran an “air raid” offense in 2000. It had been “modified” to run about as often as it threw.

 

[PINGDUDE4]

I thought we were having a nice discussion. You were explaining to me that Oklahoma ran an “air raid” offense in 2000. It had been “modified” to run about as often as it threw.

What the hell are you even talking about. Seriously you just flat make stuff up and state it as fact .

Mike Leach was the OC at Oklahoma just the year before in 1999. I watched that OU team live 2 times in 1999, and 2 times in 2000 and I remember very little if any modification between the two years. But just to make sure my eyes and memory were not deceiving me, I looked up some stats. OU averaged 320 yds. passing and 105 yds. rushing in 1999 ( Leach's year), and in 2000 they averaged 300 yards passing and 130 yards rushing. The only marginal skew to rushing was mainly because of the addition of a stud RB Q. Griffin in 2000. So some simple math for you > 75% of OU's offense yards in 1999 was passing and 70% of OU's offense yards in 2000 was passing.

You are spewing BS on some big "modification".

 

[CrimsonDisciple]

What the hell are you even talking about. Seriously you just flat make stuff up and state it as fact .

Mike Leach was the OC at Oklahoma just the year before in 1999. I watched that OU team live 2 times in 1999, and 2 times in 2000 and I remember very little if any modification between the two years. But just to make sure my eyes and memory were not deceiving me, I looked up some stats. OU averaged 320 yds. passing and 105 yds. rushing in 1999 ( Leach's year), and in 2000 they averaged 300 yards passing and 130 yards rushing. The only marginal skew to rushing was mainly because of the addition of a stud RB Q. Griffin in 2000. So some simple math for you > 75% of OU's offense yards in 1999 was passing and 70% of OU's offense yards in 2000 was passing.

You are spewing BS on some big "modification".

Dude, don’t let facts get in the way of the narrative. Lol

 

[Coug90]

Your comment really shows off your ignorance nicely. Everyone in the world knows that the world of college football is incorporating more air raid concepts all the time and there was an article earlier this year about the introduction of Mayfield and Mahomes into the NFL is finally starting to convince those teams that Air Raid principles are effective. Nobody believes that USC is suddenly going to start passing the ball 80% of the time. CougPatrol has it right in the fact that bringing a guy like Kingsbury to LA just means that they will turn into another Oklahoma and as he said, it's just a question of whether or not they keep the offense/defense equation balanced along the way.

It's funny that you don't realize that Oklahoma won a national championship in 2000 with guys running a modified version of Leach's offense.

The two best teams in the NFL right now are running a modified version of Leachs offense. With all-pro caliber QBs that ran air raid offenses in college.

This myth will always live on, especially from those who jerk off over run first teams and teams with “defense first” philosophy. Good football teams win championships. At the end of the day doesn’t matter if you throw it 60 times or run it 60 times, play a 3-4 or a 4-3. If you have the talent and execute, the scheme or philosophy is largely irrelevant.

 

[Coug90]

So if Leach was coaching USC they’d run half the time? Like Oklahoma 2000?

That’s a great question got me to thinking. I wonder if Leach coached the New York Knicks, if they’d run the same offense as the ‘91 UNLV Runnin Rebels.

 

[BiggsCoug]

The jury is still out on whether the Air Raid is simply an offense designed to compensate for talent deficiencies or an offense that great talent can make greater. I'm thrilled to have USC join the ranks of soft teams. I strongly suspect this is a move in that direction.

Last years super bowl disagrees.

 

[HHusky]

What the hell are you even talking about. Seriously you just flat make stuff up and state it as fact .

Mike Leach was the OC at Oklahoma just the year before in 1999. I watched that OU team live 2 times in 1999, and 2 times in 2000 and I remember very little if any modification between the two years. But just to make sure my eyes and memory were not deceiving me, I looked up some stats. OU averaged 320 yds. passing and 105 yds. rushing in 1999 ( Leach's year), and in 2000 they averaged 300 yards passing and 130 yards rushing. The only marginal skew to rushing was mainly because of the addition of a stud RB Q. Griffin in 2000. So some simple math for you > 75% of OU's offense yards in 1999 was passing and 70% of OU's offense yards in 2000 was passing.

You are spewing BS on some big "modification".

I think I can help you. There are these categories of plays called "rushes" and "passes". Rushes are running plays. 48+% of Oklahoma's plays in 2000 were rushes. 51+% were passes. How OFTEN one runs the ball or passes, and the proportion of runs to passes gives you clues about the offensive philosophy of the team. (30% of WSU's plays were rushes; 70% were passes this year).

You are talking about the PRODUCTVITY of the running and passing plays. "How often" a team runs or passes refers to the actual number of runs and passes. I'm sorry to have typed too quickly for you.

Don't thank me. I'm glad to shed light on this thing you found so confusing.

 

[Coug90]

I think I can help you. There are these categories of plays called "rushes" and "passes". Rushes are running plays. 48+% of Oklahoma's plays in 2000 were rushes. 51+% were passes. How OFTEN one runs the ball or passes, and the proportion of runs to passes gives you clues about the offensive philosophy of the team. (30% of WSU's plays were rushes; 70% were passes this year).

You are talking about the PRODUCTVITY of the running and passing plays. "How often" a team runs or passes refers to the actual number of runs and passes. I'm sorry to have typed too quickly for you.

Don't thank me. I'm glad to shed light on this thing you found so confusing.

Yes this is the proper way to analyze the stress that the “running game” puts on the defense and forces them to defend the entire field. Because there are no other ways to put the ball in the hands of your running backs outside of placing the ball in their hands. Such as a shovel pass which is similar conceptually to a draw, or pass to the flat, which puts the running back in space with the ball. I wished we used some of these concepts to get a couple thousand yards and 15-20 TDs out of our running backs like other GREAT PROGRAMS do but we continue to ignore the “running game”.

 

[HHusky]

Yes this is the proper way to analyze the stress that the “running game” puts on the defense and forces them to defend the entire field. Because there are no other ways to put the ball in the hands of your running backs outside of placing the ball in their hands. Such as a shovel pass which is similar conceptually to a draw, or pass to the flat, which puts the running back in space with the ball. I wished we used some of these concepts to get a couple thousand yards and 15-20 TDs out of our running backs like other GREAT PROGRAMS do but we continue to ignore the “running game”.

Don't be so hard on yourselves. Your finesse offense works well until it doesn't.

 

[PINGDUDE4]

I think I can help you. There are these categories of plays called "rushes" and "passes". Rushes are running plays. 48+% of Oklahoma's plays in 2000 were rushes. 51+% were passes. How OFTEN one runs the ball or passes, and the proportion of runs to passes gives you clues about the offensive philosophy of the team. (30% of WSU's plays were rushes; 70% were passes this year).

You are talking about the PRODUCTVITY of the running and passing plays. "How often" a team runs or passes refers to the actual number of runs and passes. I'm sorry to have typed too quickly for you.

Don't thank me. I'm glad to shed light on this thing you found so confusing.

They probably ran more in some of their blow out games that year. That probably is the only difference between 1999 and 2000 they blew more out and Stoops unlike Leach would run out the clock.

That is really meaningless because in their 2 key regular season wins that year :

First game when they knocked off K-State when they were ranked 2nd > OU had 37 passing attempts and 19 rushing attempts

Second game when they beat K-State (rematch) in the B12 championship game which got them into the MNC game > OU had 44 passing attempts and only 13 rushing attempts

Really could care less about what they did against UTEP etc.. What they did in their key wins is their offensive philosophy .

You may want to sit this one out and go back to talking about the glory days of the Huskies in 1990 or whatever.

You are the definition of ignorant arrogance . You will argue with someone that was actually physically at games as to what took place when you really have no idea what happened . That really is unique.

 

[gpcoug]

Don't be so hard on yourselves. Your finesse offense works well until it doesn't.

I don't understand the point. UW doesn't have a "finesse" offense and it also doesn't work at times. See three losses this season and 3 offensive points scored in the Pac 12 Championship Game although a win.

 

[SaveFerris]

I don't understand the point. UW doesn't have a "finesse" offense and it also doesn't work at times. See three losses this season and 3 offensive points scored in the Pac 12 Championship Game although a win.

I wondered the same. Auburn, Cal, and Utah twice doesn't exactly speak to UW's offense working every week. We had our share as well with Utah, Cal, and the UW and what do you know? Two of those opponents we have in common.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Since this is another schizoid thread with two topics, I'll answer both.

First, I tend to hold most of my portfolio. I only pay particular attention to the buys and the sells. On that basis, UCLA is clearly the buy in the league. Chip beat Helton and I suspect that he will continue to do so, while siphoning off a number of recruits that SC could have expected to get easily over the previous decade. In the short term, Kal is a buy. They are going the right direction. In the long term, though they are probably a sell, because this coach will be gone after 3 years of success and the Kal culture is not conducive to long term football success. And I think Colorado is a buy. They have some natural advantages that the right coach could exploit.

If I was looking for a somewhat risky sell with a good risk/reward ratio I'd go with Oregon. Yes, they will continue to have athletes to work with, even if they have to buy them. But there are cultural issues there. Oregon appears to be on the way to being the new UCLA.

If I am looking at a long term play I'd sell Furd. Shaw's staff can coach, and his O & D schemes are OK. His failures seem now to be in the realm of recruiting & recruit evaluation, and that is an area that leads to long term rot. Unless we see some significant assistant coach replacement, I don't see that improving. Furd seems headed toward mediocrity.

As for the Kingsbury SC offense, I expect him to use a modified Air Raid. He has tight ends that would be a waste to ignore. Sure, there will be a classic Air Raid approach, especially between the 20's. He has enough WR's to do that, though no where near the depth in that area that he will eventually need. I don't know what he will do with the tight ends....but my guess is that sometimes he will have a true TE and sometimes the TE will split out to sort of a slot position. The TE will be out blocking on bubble screens, and I expect a short yardage/goal line O that includes a true TE and maybe even a FB somehow. I would not even be surprised if there are some plays where the QB is under center. I expect this because he IS an exceptionally innovative guy, and he will have a lot of good kids to utilize. Longer term he may move toward classic Air Raid almost all the time, but not in his first season. It should be entertaining to see how it all plays out.

Finally, can you imagine the two LA schools running an Air Raid and a Chip spread? Furd, Utah and maybe UW (depending upon how everything plays out) will be the homes of old style power football.

 

[HHusky]

They probably ran more in some of their blow out games that year. That probably is the only difference between 1999 and 2000 they blew more out and Stoops unlike Leach would run out the clock.

That is really meaningless because in their 2 key regular season wins that year :

First game when they knocked off K-State when they were ranked 2nd > OU had 37 passing attempts and 19 rushing attempts

Second game when they beat K-State (rematch) in the B12 championship game which got them into the MNC game > OU had 44 passing attempts and only 13 rushing attempts

Really could care less about what they did against UTEP etc.. What they did in their key wins is their offensive philosophy .

You may want to sit this one out and go back to talking about the glory days of the Huskies in 1990 or whatever.

You are the definition of ignorant arrogance . You will argue with someone that was actually physically at games as to what took place when you really have no idea what happened . That really is unique.

So they twice beat the same team with a game plan that included more passing than their average. This doesn’t logically lead to the conclusion you think it does.

 

[PINGDUDE4]

So they twice beat the same team with a game plan that included more passing than their average. This doesn’t logically lead to the conclusion you think it does.

I am not going break down every figgin game down for you buddy. I thought I would make it simple for you show you ratios against the key opponent.

The pass/rush ratio OU had in the KSU game is the same or even more skewed towards pass when they faced Tx. A&M , Nebraska, Tech etc. go down the list. As I said the only time the ratio was what you said is in games when the won the game by 40 to 50 pts and were running out the clock in the 4th Q.

 

[HHusky]

I am not going break down every figgin game down for you buddy. I thought I would make it simple for you show you ratios against the key opponent.

The pass/rush ratio OU had in the KSU game is the same or even more skewed towards pass when they faced Tx. A&M , Nebraska, Tech etc. go down the list. As I said the only time the ratio was what you said is in games when the won the game by 40 to 50 pts and were running out the clock in the 4th Q.

Aren’t you making my point? Friendly question.

 

[PINGDUDE4]

Aren’t you making my point? Friendly question.

How so ?

In the competitive games OU was 2 to 1 pass to run team. In games like UTEP , Arky State and Texas ( that year) where they got up big early by throwing , they then went to a lot of rushing plays after the game was out of reach. Those were the games that drove up the seasonal rushing attempts. You look at drive charts in every game they started the game as a pass first team. In the competitive games they stayed pass first the entire game.

OU slowly went to a more run oriented team in the Stoops era. Stoops then decided that was a mistake, which is why he brought in Riley in to get back to an Air Raid orientation. This year they are hard to define other than being the Kyler Murray show, he has a lot of passing attempts, but he also has a lot rushing attempts. So their pass/rush ratio looks balanced, but they are not a line up in a pro formation with the QB under center type run team.

 

[HHusky]

How so ?

In the competitive games OU was 2 to 1 pass to run team. In games like UTEP , Arky State and Texas ( that year) where they got up big early by throwing , they then went to a lot of rushing plays after the game was out of reach. Those were the games that drove up the seasonal rushing attempts. You look at drive charts in every game they started the game as a pass first team. In the competitive games they stayed pass first the entire game.

OU slowly went to a more run oriented team in the Stoops era. Stoops then decided that was a mistake, which is why he brought in Riley in to get back to an Air Raid orientation. This year they are hard to define other than being the Kyler Murray show, he has a lot of passing attempts, but he also has a lot rushing attempts. So their pass/rush ratio looks balanced, but they are not a line up in a pro formation with the QB under center type run team.

Against #1 Nebraska? How about the Orange Bowl?

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

Stating the obvious here....but I think the concepts of "run" plays in Leach's offense is so misleading...as are some "pass" plays.

Whether I get the ball to a running back via old school handoffs...or do so via a quick swing pass or shovel pass to a RB is just semantics, right? Both methods are meant to be running plays essentially. It is more about getting the ball to the RB so he can do his thing most effectively with mismatches and space.

That is what the media doesn't seem to get...nor do others. "Balance" is not handoffs vs pass plays. That concept of measuring is too limiting and so 20th Century.

 

[HHusky]

Stating the obvious here....but I think the concepts of "run" plays in Leach's offense is so misleading...as are some "pass" plays.

Whether I get the ball to a running back via old school handoffs...or do so via a quick swing pass or shovel pass to a RB is just semantics, right? Both methods are meant to be running plays essentially. It is more about getting the ball to the RB so he can do his thing most effectively with mismatches and space.

That is what the media doesn't seem to get...nor do others. "Balance" is not handoffs vs pass plays. That concept of measuring is too limiting and so 20th Century.

The issue is an OL imposing its will. When anyone runs a smash mouth Air Raid, you have my attention.

 

[kougkurt]

The issue is an OL imposing its will. When anyone runs a smash mouth Air Raid, you have my attention.

Be kinda tough without TE’s or FB’s. You are talking true air raid right?

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

The issue is an OL imposing its will. When anyone runs a smash mouth Air Raid, you have my attention.

I'd say that's an oxymoron.

Maybe USC could pull it off situationally with their 5 star two deeps* on the OL?

* slight exaggeration

 

[HHusky]

I'd say that's an oxymoron.

Me too.

Goodbye Clay.

 

[PINGDUDE4]

The issue is an OL imposing its will. When anyone runs a smash mouth Air Raid, you have my attention.

When your O-line "imposes its will " in a meaningful game outside of the AC then you will have my attention. Did they impose any will in any of your 3 losses this year ? Or in your last 2 Bowl games ? When that happens you will have a point. Right now Pete is running the right offense to win but not even dominate a watered down P12 . As USC, Oregon and maybe even UCLA get their acts back together let's check back on how the Pete way is doing.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Since I've decided to "IGNORE" all the Husky douchebags on the site, it appears that my fellow posters are arguing against the air. It's pretty entertaining. I recommend everyone put the Husky idiots on ignore. They actually cease to exist and are simply ghosts yelling in silence where nobody hears them.

 

[taf88]

Since I've decided to "IGNORE" all the Husky douchebags on the site, it appears that my fellow posters are arguing against the air. It's pretty entertaining. I recommend everyone put the Husky idiots on ignore. They actually cease to exist and are simply ghosts yelling in silence where nobody hears them.

Did the same, the ignore button is your friend.

 

[Ffffws]

Don't be so hard on yourselves. Your finesse offense works well until it doesn't.

Like in slushy blizzards....

 

[PINGDUDE4]

I thought we were having a nice discussion. You were explaining to me that Oklahoma ran an “air raid” offense in 2000. It had been “modified” to run about as often as it threw.

Maybe you need to debate this guy on the impact that Leach had on OU and how much they threw the ball even after he left. You probably do not know him because you do not watch much football, but this is former OU Heisman winner; Jason White.

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

I'm probably a hold on USC, but I otherwise pretty much agree.

I'm thinking that Daniels with one more year of experience...plus their new OC will make it difficult to do much worse. Obviously, this is debatable. They have so much talent, there is more upside than downside.

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

I am selling ASU, Kal and UO.. Holding on WSU, USC and OSU but everything else is legit

No love for Kal with their strong defense? I'm thinking that they will get their act together more on the offensive side and Wilcox will make them a stronger team overall. We'll see.

 

[wazzucougs96]

Last years super bowl disagrees.

Super Bowl 49 also