Teams that end up being in the super conferences and the ones left out (my take)

Flatlandcoug

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If college football really blows up the way that it seems to be doing, at some point there may be teams that are uninvited from the super conference as time goes on. After looking at a few different "Top team" lists, here are the teams that I think that are guaranteed to be in the 48 team "super conference" and some teams that will probably be left out because of performance or other factors. Numbers in front of name are the team's ranking in overall winning percentage since the 2000 season. I quit listing teams after WSU at #81 unless they were in a major conference or a name that might surprise. Red are teams from the B1G or SEC that I think are in danger of being left out. Green are other Power 5 teams that are in trouble and unlikely to find a chair.

Guaranteed Entry (24 teams)
#1 Ohio State, #3 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Georgia, #7 LSU, #8 Clemson, #10 Wisconsin, #12 USC, #13 Texas, #14 Florida, #17 Auburn, #18 Miami, #19 Michigan, #20 Florida State, #24 Iowa, #25 Penn State, #26 Notre Dame, #31 Michigan State, #32 Texas A&M, #33 Nebraska, #42 Tennessee, #44 South Carolina, #57 UCLA, #61 Arkansas

Probably there (11 teams)
#9 Oregon, #15 Virginia Tech, #16 Utah, #21 Oklahoma State, #40 Missouri, #41 Stanford, #54 Northwestern, #56 Washington, #60 Minnesota, #62 Ole Miss, #74 Maryland, #78 Mississippi State

On the bubble (13 teams)
#11 TCU, #23 BYU, #27 West Virginia, #34 Kansas State, #38 Pitt, #43 Boston College, #46 Texas Tech, #47 NC State, #48 Arizona State, #50 Georgia Tech, #69 California, #76 Baylor

Probably Left Out (or should be left out)
#2 Boise State, #4 Appalachian State, #22 Cincinnati, #28 Toledo, #29 Louisville, #30 Northern Illinois, #35 Central Florida, #36 Fresno State, #37 Marshall, #39 Air Force, #44 Houston, #49 Navy, #51 Troy, #52 Georgia Southern, #53 SDSU, #55 South Florida, #58 Nevada, #59 Western Michigan, #63 Southern Miss, #64 Hawaii, #65 Ohio, #66 ULL, #67 Louisiana Tech, #68 Western Kentucky, #70 Middle Tennessee State, #70 Oregon State, #72 Memphis, #73 UTSA, #77 Bowling Green, #79 Wake Forest, #80 Arkansas State, #81 Washington State, #83 Virginia, #85 North Carolina, #88 Kentucky, #89 Purdue, #90 Iowa State, #95 Rutgers, #96 Arizona, #99 Syracuse, #100 Colorado, #108 Illinois, #109 Indiana, #120 Vanderbilt, #122 Duke, #123 Kansas

Going through this exercise shows how tough it is to be rational about the whole discussion. All of the bubble teams have had moments but also have warts. TCU had a hell of a run from 2000-2017 and is in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex....but they had a crap tradition before that and have sucked since 2018. BYU is a national brand but will its religious views hurt them? West Virginia has only had one great season since joining the Big 12 and has no TV market. Kansas State won't bring a bunch of TV's and has been pretty middle of the road for a decade. Does anyone really watch or care about Pitt? Boston College is in a major metro area dedicated to its pro teams and has been mediocre for close to 15 years. Texas Tech is small market and mediocre since Leach left. NC State isn't going to blow anyone's skirt up, but they've been pretty decent recently. Arizona State should be a slam dunk with their TV market and overall success from 1996-2014 but there have been some clunker seasons sprinkled in and they've generally underperformed for 3-4 years at a time. Georgia Tech in in Atlanta and has its moments but plenty of mediocrity sprinkled in. Cal should be a no brainer because of TV market, but the university has failed to fully commit to football and Bay Area fans are not the most devoted. Baylor has had some great teams in the past decade but they are dirty as hell and everyone in the Midwest hates them.

Given all of the above, do Kentucky, Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana and Vanderbilt make the cut even though they clearly are not elite teams that are "worthy" of being in a super conference? By the way, WSU is #33 on the list if you shorten the window to the 2015-2021 seasons. UW jumps up to #24.
 

How_did_this_happen?

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If college football really blows up the way that it seems to be doing, at some point there may be teams that are uninvited from the super conference as time goes on. After looking at a few different "Top team" lists, here are the teams that I think that are guaranteed to be in the 48 team "super conference" and some teams that will probably be left out because of performance or other factors. Numbers in front of name are the team's ranking in overall winning percentage since the 2000 season. I quit listing teams after WSU at #81 unless they were in a major conference or a name that might surprise. Red are teams from the B1G or SEC that I think are in danger of being left out. Green are other Power 5 teams that are in trouble and unlikely to find a chair.

Guaranteed Entry (24 teams)
#1 Ohio State, #3 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Georgia, #7 LSU, #8 Clemson, #10 Wisconsin, #12 USC, #13 Texas, #14 Florida, #17 Auburn, #18 Miami, #19 Michigan, #20 Florida State, #24 Iowa, #25 Penn State, #26 Notre Dame, #31 Michigan State, #32 Texas A&M, #33 Nebraska, #42 Tennessee, #44 South Carolina, #57 UCLA, #61 Arkansas

Probably there (11 teams)
#9 Oregon, #15 Virginia Tech, #16 Utah, #21 Oklahoma State, #40 Missouri, #41 Stanford, #54 Northwestern, #56 Washington, #60 Minnesota, #62 Ole Miss, #74 Maryland, #78 Mississippi State

On the bubble (13 teams)
#11 TCU, #23 BYU, #27 West Virginia, #34 Kansas State, #38 Pitt, #43 Boston College, #46 Texas Tech, #47 NC State, #48 Arizona State, #50 Georgia Tech, #69 California, #76 Baylor

Probably Left Out (or should be left out)
#2 Boise State, #4 Appalachian State, #22 Cincinnati, #28 Toledo, #29 Louisville, #30 Northern Illinois, #35 Central Florida, #36 Fresno State, #37 Marshall, #39 Air Force, #44 Houston, #49 Navy, #51 Troy, #52 Georgia Southern, #53 SDSU, #55 South Florida, #58 Nevada, #59 Western Michigan, #63 Southern Miss, #64 Hawaii, #65 Ohio, #66 ULL, #67 Louisiana Tech, #68 Western Kentucky, #70 Middle Tennessee State, #70 Oregon State, #72 Memphis, #73 UTSA, #77 Bowling Green, #79 Wake Forest, #80 Arkansas State, #81 Washington State, #83 Virginia, #85 North Carolina, #88 Kentucky, #89 Purdue, #90 Iowa State, #95 Rutgers, #96 Arizona, #99 Syracuse, #100 Colorado, #108 Illinois, #109 Indiana, #120 Vanderbilt, #122 Duke, #123 Kansas

Going through this exercise shows how tough it is to be rational about the whole discussion. All of the bubble teams have had moments but also have warts. TCU had a hell of a run from 2000-2017 and is in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex....but they had a crap tradition before that and have sucked since 2018. BYU is a national brand but will its religious views hurt them? West Virginia has only had one great season since joining the Big 12 and has no TV market. Kansas State won't bring a bunch of TV's and has been pretty middle of the road for a decade. Does anyone really watch or care about Pitt? Boston College is in a major metro area dedicated to its pro teams and has been mediocre for close to 15 years. Texas Tech is small market and mediocre since Leach left. NC State isn't going to blow anyone's skirt up, but they've been pretty decent recently. Arizona State should be a slam dunk with their TV market and overall success from 1996-2014 but there have been some clunker seasons sprinkled in and they've generally underperformed for 3-4 years at a time. Georgia Tech in in Atlanta and has its moments but plenty of mediocrity sprinkled in. Cal should be a no brainer because of TV market, but the university has failed to fully commit to football and Bay Area fans are not the most devoted. Baylor has had some great teams in the past decade but they are dirty as hell and everyone in the Midwest hates them.

Given all of the above, do Kentucky, Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana and Vanderbilt make the cut even though they clearly are not elite teams that are "worthy" of being in a super conference? By the way, WSU is #33 on the list if you shorten the window to the 2015-2021 seasons. UW jumps up to #24.

It's all about "brand" and the ability to draw a large enough audience.

As for BYU, if they generate enough money then that is all that matters. All the rest is noise. Money rules...plain and simple.

PS I'd love to see UW and their so-called "academic excellence" and the snootiness that imparts on them have to join a league with BYU. All the hypocrisy would be exposed. That would be hilarious.
 

triscuit one

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BYU will have to let sports media dicate thier schedule, not thier religious belief, to be allowed in.
 

mikalalas

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A insider Notre Dame Source according to Sports Illustrated says that Notre Dame doesn't want to go to Big 10 and wants to stay independent.

COMBINED with how a WA legislator named Drew Stokesbary, said that he and Michael Baumgartner, are pushing, expediting FAST, QUICK, ETC, LEGISLATION, that ties UW/WA state together, forbids UW from leaving WSU behind, that UW/WSU has to be a PACKAGED deal either in Pac 12, Big 10, Big 12, Merger between Pac 12/Big 12, Merger between Pac 12/ACC, MWC, etc.

Drew Stokesbary has TOLD UW/WSU presidents, Chancellor's, AD's, Board of Regents, Coaches, etc, and probably has threatened the President's/AD's/Board of Regents, that they had better comply, not try to do things, circumvent things, before the legislation passed, and that if they do that, they will lose all public tax dollars, funding, will be FIRED, etc.

That and what Big 10 has said that they not interested and only interested in Oregon/UW, IF IF ND joins Big 10, and since ND said they won't join Big 10, and since UW/Oregon said they are staying put, and since the Big 12 said they won't raid Big 12, at least for now, and since the rest of the remaining Pac 12 teams said they staying put, and since the Pac 12 said they extremely aggressively will expand, an or merge, and said that a new media deal worth about 300 million, about 30 million a Pac 12 team per year, is being finalized.

Because of all that combined together.

Pac 12 will probably get Iowa St, TCU, Texas Tech, from Big 12, and BSU, UNLV, SDSU, Fresno State, Airforce, to go with Oregon, UW, Stanford, Utah, Cal, Arizona, ASU, Colorado, WSU, Ore St, to become the Pac 18, and then get Rosebowl to renew with Pac 18, and then finalize 300 Mill media deal, then later merge with either Big 12 or ACC.
 

95coug

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A insider Notre Dame Source according to Sports Illustrated says that Notre Dame doesn't want to go to Big 10 and wants to stay independent.

COMBINED with how a WA legislator named Drew Stokesbary, said that he and Michael Baumgartner, are pushing, expediting FAST, QUICK, ETC, LEGISLATION, that ties UW/WA state together, forbids UW from leaving WSU behind, that UW/WSU has to be a PACKAGED deal either in Pac 12, Big 10, Big 12, Merger between Pac 12/Big 12, Merger between Pac 12/ACC, MWC, etc.

Drew Stokesbary has TOLD UW/WSU presidents, Chancellor's, AD's, Board of Regents, Coaches, etc, and probably has threatened the President's/AD's/Board of Regents, that they had better comply, not try to do things, circumvent things, before the legislation passed, and that if they do that, they will lose all public tax dollars, funding, will be FIRED, etc.

That and what Big 10 has said that they not interested and only interested in Oregon/UW, IF IF ND joins Big 10, and since ND said they won't join Big 10, and since UW/Oregon said they are staying put, and since the Big 12 said they won't raid Big 12, at least for now, and since the rest of the remaining Pac 12 teams said they staying put, and since the Pac 12 said they extremely aggressively will expand, an or merge, and said that a new media deal worth about 300 million, about 30 million a Pac 12 team per year, is being finalized.

Because of all that combined together.

Pac 12 will probably get Iowa St, TCU, Texas Tech, from Big 12, and BSU, UNLV, SDSU, Fresno State, Airforce, to go with Oregon, UW, Stanford, Utah, Cal, Arizona, ASU, Colorado, WSU, Ore St, to become the Pac 18, and then get Rosebowl to renew with Pac 18, and then finalize 300 Mill media deal, then later merge with either Big 12 or ACC.
News flash - this isn’t Beetlejuice. You can’t make it true by saying it 3 times
 

M-I-Coug

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A insider Notre Dame Source according to Sports Illustrated says that Notre Dame doesn't want to go to Big 10 and wants to stay independent.

COMBINED with how a WA legislator named Drew Stokesbary, said that he and Michael Baumgartner, are pushing, expediting FAST, QUICK, ETC, LEGISLATION, that ties UW/WA state together, forbids UW from leaving WSU behind, that UW/WSU has to be a PACKAGED deal either in Pac 12, Big 10, Big 12, Merger between Pac 12/Big 12, Merger between Pac 12/ACC, MWC, etc.

Drew Stokesbary has TOLD UW/WSU presidents, Chancellor's, AD's, Board of Regents, Coaches, etc, and probably has threatened the President's/AD's/Board of Regents, that they had better comply, not try to do things, circumvent things, before the legislation passed, and that if they do that, they will lose all public tax dollars, funding, will be FIRED, etc.

That and what Big 10 has said that they not interested and only interested in Oregon/UW, IF IF ND joins Big 10, and since ND said they won't join Big 10, and since UW/Oregon said they are staying put, and since the Big 12 said they won't raid Big 12, at least for now, and since the rest of the remaining Pac 12 teams said they staying put, and since the Pac 12 said they extremely aggressively will expand, an or merge, and said that a new media deal worth about 300 million, about 30 million a Pac 12 team per year, is being finalized.

Because of all that combined together.

Pac 12 will probably get Iowa St, TCU, Texas Tech, from Big 12, and BSU, UNLV, SDSU, Fresno State, Airforce, to go with Oregon, UW, Stanford, Utah, Cal, Arizona, ASU, Colorado, WSU, Ore St, to become the Pac 18, and then get Rosebowl to renew with Pac 18, and then finalize 300 Mill media deal, then later merge with either Big 12 or ACC.
Regarding Notre Dame, I totally agree. They've been offered many times before. That is their thing. Independent. They like control and the attention/image or spotlight it brings. Notre Dame is staying right where they are, assuming the future of solid revenue from NBC remains.

A problem no one is really talking about is that network television is dead. So many people are streaming and don't have access to college football, except through streaming on Peacock, Paramount+, HULU, and ESPN.

The mass market simply are unwilling to pay for both: Network television (DISH, DirecTV, Comcast, or your Cable provider), and Paramount+, Peacock, HULU, ESPN, YouTube Premium, HBO Max, Disney+, Apple TV, Netflix, etc, etc. That's the elephant in the room.

Moreover, those of us who pay for network television, (are hardly watching it) and when we do, if it's football, or baseball, we faithfully record it and skip the commercials.

It's problematic, any way you slice it. Streaming totally created financial havoc for the broadcast industry, therefore less eyes on network television......so they (the Big 10 and the SEC) have to find creative ways to get more eyes on the TV.

The root cause of all of this?
Streaming channels and the mass market who have cut the cord.
 
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How_did_this_happen?

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Regarding Notre Dame, I totally agree. They've been offered many times before. That is there thing. Independent. They like control and the attention/image or spotlight it brings. Notre Dame is staying right where they are, assuming the future of solid revenue from NBC remains.

I respect them for holding out and not giving up control of their future. I also know that they can only pull this off because they are awash in cash.
 
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Wazzubrooz

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I respect them for holding out and not giving up control of their future. I also know that they can only pull this off because they are awash in cash.
ND sucks. They are a big part of starting this whole thing with demanding to have separate deal with NBC, giving them wads of cash.
 

dgibbons

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If college football really blows up the way that it seems to be doing, at some point there may be teams that are uninvited from the super conference as time goes on. After looking at a few different "Top team" lists, here are the teams that I think that are guaranteed to be in the 48 team "super conference" and some teams that will probably be left out because of performance or other factors. Numbers in front of name are the team's ranking in overall winning percentage since the 2000 season. I quit listing teams after WSU at #81 unless they were in a major conference or a name that might surprise. Red are teams from the B1G or SEC that I think are in danger of being left out. Green are other Power 5 teams that are in trouble and unlikely to find a chair.

Guaranteed Entry (24 teams)
#1 Ohio State, #3 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Georgia, #7 LSU, #8 Clemson, #10 Wisconsin, #12 USC, #13 Texas, #14 Florida, #17 Auburn, #18 Miami, #19 Michigan, #20 Florida State, #24 Iowa, #25 Penn State, #26 Notre Dame, #31 Michigan State, #32 Texas A&M, #33 Nebraska, #42 Tennessee, #44 South Carolina, #57 UCLA, #61 Arkansas

Probably there (11 teams)
#9 Oregon, #15 Virginia Tech, #16 Utah, #21 Oklahoma State, #40 Missouri, #41 Stanford, #54 Northwestern, #56 Washington, #60 Minnesota, #62 Ole Miss, #74 Maryland, #78 Mississippi State

On the bubble (13 teams)
#11 TCU, #23 BYU, #27 West Virginia, #34 Kansas State, #38 Pitt, #43 Boston College, #46 Texas Tech, #47 NC State, #48 Arizona State, #50 Georgia Tech, #69 California, #76 Baylor

Probably Left Out (or should be left out)
#2 Boise State, #4 Appalachian State, #22 Cincinnati, #28 Toledo, #29 Louisville, #30 Northern Illinois, #35 Central Florida, #36 Fresno State, #37 Marshall, #39 Air Force, #44 Houston, #49 Navy, #51 Troy, #52 Georgia Southern, #53 SDSU, #55 South Florida, #58 Nevada, #59 Western Michigan, #63 Southern Miss, #64 Hawaii, #65 Ohio, #66 ULL, #67 Louisiana Tech, #68 Western Kentucky, #70 Middle Tennessee State, #70 Oregon State, #72 Memphis, #73 UTSA, #77 Bowling Green, #79 Wake Forest, #80 Arkansas State, #81 Washington State, #83 Virginia, #85 North Carolina, #88 Kentucky, #89 Purdue, #90 Iowa State, #95 Rutgers, #96 Arizona, #99 Syracuse, #100 Colorado, #108 Illinois, #109 Indiana, #120 Vanderbilt, #122 Duke, #123 Kansas

Going through this exercise shows how tough it is to be rational about the whole discussion. All of the bubble teams have had moments but also have warts. TCU had a hell of a run from 2000-2017 and is in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex....but they had a crap tradition before that and have sucked since 2018. BYU is a national brand but will its religious views hurt them? West Virginia has only had one great season since joining the Big 12 and has no TV market. Kansas State won't bring a bunch of TV's and has been pretty middle of the road for a decade. Does anyone really watch or care about Pitt? Boston College is in a major metro area dedicated to its pro teams and has been mediocre for close to 15 years. Texas Tech is small market and mediocre since Leach left. NC State isn't going to blow anyone's skirt up, but they've been pretty decent recently. Arizona State should be a slam dunk with their TV market and overall success from 1996-2014 but there have been some clunker seasons sprinkled in and they've generally underperformed for 3-4 years at a time. Georgia Tech in in Atlanta and has its moments but plenty of mediocrity sprinkled in. Cal should be a no brainer because of TV market, but the university has failed to fully commit to football and Bay Area fans are not the most devoted. Baylor has had some great teams in the past decade but they are dirty as hell and everyone in the Midwest hates them.

Given all of the above, do Kentucky, Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana and Vanderbilt make the cut even though they clearly are not elite teams that are "worthy" of being in a super conference? By the way, WSU is #33 on the list if you shorten the window to the 2015-2021 seasons. UW jumps up to #24.

Why did you use winning percentage? It's not really a factor. UCLA is a mediocre football program and athletic department. Location is the only thing it has going for it.
 
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CougSinceBirth

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Why did you use winning percentage? It's not really a factor. UCLA is a mediocre football program and athletic department. Location is the only thing it has going for it.
FWIW, I think Martin Jarmond is a great AD, but them having Guerrero all those years put them in a bad spot.
 

Flatlandcoug

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Why did you use winning percentage? It's not really a factor. UCLA is a mediocre football program and athletic department. Location is the only thing it has going for it.
Gotta start somewhere and I wasn’t going to create database that included stadium size, student and general population, licensing revenue, national and conference titles, TV market weighted by proximity and shared footprints and all the other factors that might influence decisions. Don’t care that much when we already know what the answer is.
 

12375CAT

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A insider Notre Dame Source according to Sports Illustrated says that Notre Dame doesn't want to go to Big 10 and wants to stay independent.

COMBINED with how a WA legislator named Drew Stokesbary, said that he and Michael Baumgartner, are pushing, expediting FAST, QUICK, ETC, LEGISLATION, that ties UW/WA state together, forbids UW from leaving WSU behind, that UW/WSU has to be a PACKAGED deal either in Pac 12, Big 10, Big 12, Merger between Pac 12/Big 12, Merger between Pac 12/ACC, MWC, etc.

Drew Stokesbary has TOLD UW/WSU presidents, Chancellor's, AD's, Board of Regents, Coaches, etc, and probably has threatened the President's/AD's/Board of Regents, that they had better comply, not try to do things, circumvent things, before the legislation passed, and that if they do that, they will lose all public tax dollars, funding, will be FIRED, etc.

That and what Big 10 has said that they not interested and only interested in Oregon/UW, IF IF ND joins Big 10, and since ND said they won't join Big 10, and since UW/Oregon said they are staying put, and since the Big 12 said they won't raid Big 12, at least for now, and since the rest of the remaining Pac 12 teams said they staying put, and since the Pac 12 said they extremely aggressively will expand, an or merge, and said that a new media deal worth about 300 million, about 30 million a Pac 12 team per year, is being finalized.

Because of all that combined together.

Pac 12 will probably get Iowa St, TCU, Texas Tech, from Big 12, and BSU, UNLV, SDSU, Fresno State, Airforce, to go with Oregon, UW, Stanford, Utah, Cal, Arizona, ASU, Colorado, WSU, Ore St, to become the Pac 18, and then get Rosebowl to renew with Pac 18, and then finalize 300 Mill media deal, then later merge with either Big 12 or ACC.
Then the P12 holds together.
But if the P12 $ is < B12 $ then NO WAY any B12 teams leave to join the P12!
 
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