If college football really blows up the way that it seems to be doing, at some point there may be teams that are uninvited from the super conference as time goes on. After looking at a few different "Top team" lists, here are the teams that I think that are guaranteed to be in the 48 team "super conference" and some teams that will probably be left out because of performance or other factors. Numbers in front of name are the team's ranking in overall winning percentage since the 2000 season. I quit listing teams after WSU at #81 unless they were in a major conference or a name that might surprise. Red are teams from the B1G or SEC that I think are in danger of being left out. Green are other Power 5 teams that are in trouble and unlikely to find a chair.
Guaranteed Entry (24 teams)
#1 Ohio State, #3 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Georgia, #7 LSU, #8 Clemson, #10 Wisconsin, #12 USC, #13 Texas, #14 Florida, #17 Auburn, #18 Miami, #19 Michigan, #20 Florida State, #24 Iowa, #25 Penn State, #26 Notre Dame, #31 Michigan State, #32 Texas A&M, #33 Nebraska, #42 Tennessee, #44 South Carolina, #57 UCLA, #61 Arkansas
Probably there (11 teams)
#9 Oregon, #15 Virginia Tech, #16 Utah, #21 Oklahoma State, #40 Missouri, #41 Stanford, #54 Northwestern, #56 Washington, #60 Minnesota, #62 Ole Miss, #74 Maryland, #78 Mississippi State
On the bubble (13 teams)
#11 TCU, #23 BYU, #27 West Virginia, #34 Kansas State, #38 Pitt, #43 Boston College, #46 Texas Tech, #47 NC State, #48 Arizona State, #50 Georgia Tech, #69 California, #76 Baylor
Probably Left Out (or should be left out)
#2 Boise State, #4 Appalachian State, #22 Cincinnati, #28 Toledo, #29 Louisville, #30 Northern Illinois, #35 Central Florida, #36 Fresno State, #37 Marshall, #39 Air Force, #44 Houston, #49 Navy, #51 Troy, #52 Georgia Southern, #53 SDSU, #55 South Florida, #58 Nevada, #59 Western Michigan, #63 Southern Miss, #64 Hawaii, #65 Ohio, #66 ULL, #67 Louisiana Tech, #68 Western Kentucky, #70 Middle Tennessee State, #70 Oregon State, #72 Memphis, #73 UTSA, #77 Bowling Green, #79 Wake Forest, #80 Arkansas State, #81 Washington State, #83 Virginia, #85 North Carolina, #88 Kentucky, #89 Purdue, #90 Iowa State, #95 Rutgers, #96 Arizona, #99 Syracuse, #100 Colorado, #108 Illinois, #109 Indiana, #120 Vanderbilt, #122 Duke, #123 Kansas
Going through this exercise shows how tough it is to be rational about the whole discussion. All of the bubble teams have had moments but also have warts. TCU had a hell of a run from 2000-2017 and is in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex....but they had a crap tradition before that and have sucked since 2018. BYU is a national brand but will its religious views hurt them? West Virginia has only had one great season since joining the Big 12 and has no TV market. Kansas State won't bring a bunch of TV's and has been pretty middle of the road for a decade. Does anyone really watch or care about Pitt? Boston College is in a major metro area dedicated to its pro teams and has been mediocre for close to 15 years. Texas Tech is small market and mediocre since Leach left. NC State isn't going to blow anyone's skirt up, but they've been pretty decent recently. Arizona State should be a slam dunk with their TV market and overall success from 1996-2014 but there have been some clunker seasons sprinkled in and they've generally underperformed for 3-4 years at a time. Georgia Tech in in Atlanta and has its moments but plenty of mediocrity sprinkled in. Cal should be a no brainer because of TV market, but the university has failed to fully commit to football and Bay Area fans are not the most devoted. Baylor has had some great teams in the past decade but they are dirty as hell and everyone in the Midwest hates them.
Given all of the above, do Kentucky, Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana and Vanderbilt make the cut even though they clearly are not elite teams that are "worthy" of being in a super conference? By the way, WSU is #33 on the list if you shorten the window to the 2015-2021 seasons. UW jumps up to #24.
Guaranteed Entry (24 teams)
#1 Ohio State, #3 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Georgia, #7 LSU, #8 Clemson, #10 Wisconsin, #12 USC, #13 Texas, #14 Florida, #17 Auburn, #18 Miami, #19 Michigan, #20 Florida State, #24 Iowa, #25 Penn State, #26 Notre Dame, #31 Michigan State, #32 Texas A&M, #33 Nebraska, #42 Tennessee, #44 South Carolina, #57 UCLA, #61 Arkansas
Probably there (11 teams)
#9 Oregon, #15 Virginia Tech, #16 Utah, #21 Oklahoma State, #40 Missouri, #41 Stanford, #54 Northwestern, #56 Washington, #60 Minnesota, #62 Ole Miss, #74 Maryland, #78 Mississippi State
On the bubble (13 teams)
#11 TCU, #23 BYU, #27 West Virginia, #34 Kansas State, #38 Pitt, #43 Boston College, #46 Texas Tech, #47 NC State, #48 Arizona State, #50 Georgia Tech, #69 California, #76 Baylor
Probably Left Out (or should be left out)
#2 Boise State, #4 Appalachian State, #22 Cincinnati, #28 Toledo, #29 Louisville, #30 Northern Illinois, #35 Central Florida, #36 Fresno State, #37 Marshall, #39 Air Force, #44 Houston, #49 Navy, #51 Troy, #52 Georgia Southern, #53 SDSU, #55 South Florida, #58 Nevada, #59 Western Michigan, #63 Southern Miss, #64 Hawaii, #65 Ohio, #66 ULL, #67 Louisiana Tech, #68 Western Kentucky, #70 Middle Tennessee State, #70 Oregon State, #72 Memphis, #73 UTSA, #77 Bowling Green, #79 Wake Forest, #80 Arkansas State, #81 Washington State, #83 Virginia, #85 North Carolina, #88 Kentucky, #89 Purdue, #90 Iowa State, #95 Rutgers, #96 Arizona, #99 Syracuse, #100 Colorado, #108 Illinois, #109 Indiana, #120 Vanderbilt, #122 Duke, #123 Kansas
Going through this exercise shows how tough it is to be rational about the whole discussion. All of the bubble teams have had moments but also have warts. TCU had a hell of a run from 2000-2017 and is in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex....but they had a crap tradition before that and have sucked since 2018. BYU is a national brand but will its religious views hurt them? West Virginia has only had one great season since joining the Big 12 and has no TV market. Kansas State won't bring a bunch of TV's and has been pretty middle of the road for a decade. Does anyone really watch or care about Pitt? Boston College is in a major metro area dedicated to its pro teams and has been mediocre for close to 15 years. Texas Tech is small market and mediocre since Leach left. NC State isn't going to blow anyone's skirt up, but they've been pretty decent recently. Arizona State should be a slam dunk with their TV market and overall success from 1996-2014 but there have been some clunker seasons sprinkled in and they've generally underperformed for 3-4 years at a time. Georgia Tech in in Atlanta and has its moments but plenty of mediocrity sprinkled in. Cal should be a no brainer because of TV market, but the university has failed to fully commit to football and Bay Area fans are not the most devoted. Baylor has had some great teams in the past decade but they are dirty as hell and everyone in the Midwest hates them.
Given all of the above, do Kentucky, Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana and Vanderbilt make the cut even though they clearly are not elite teams that are "worthy" of being in a super conference? By the way, WSU is #33 on the list if you shorten the window to the 2015-2021 seasons. UW jumps up to #24.
