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Urban Meyer to Jacksonville

I enjoyed the Brady & Brees meeting last week. When you talk about "franchise qb's", there are two examples. It got me thinking, and led to a question that seems to fit in this thread. My question: is there even one of those franchise guys produced by the college ranks per year, on average? No way is there 2 per year on average. I am not sure that we even average one of those guys per year....?

These two came out 20 years ago. At what point do you acknowledge that you don't have one of these guys and go about building your team with super stars in other positions? Figure out what your QB does well, build on that and go play.
 
I think Urban will do well in JAX, the cap space they have, they can bring in key additions all over the place, they have the draft capital, and no blocker to picking a generational talent in Lawrence. The one area they have some talent to build on is WR, Chalk and Shenault are talented and can make plays. I suspect next year they get into the 7-8 win range and compete for playoffs in year 2.
 
I enjoyed the Brady & Brees meeting last week. When you talk about "franchise qb's", there are two examples. It got me thinking, and led to a question that seems to fit in this thread. My question: is there even one of those franchise guys produced by the college ranks per year, on average? No way is there 2 per year on average. I am not sure that we even average one of those guys per year....?
I bet its close to one--over the last 5 years you've got Burrow and Herbert (2020), Kyler Murray (2019), Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen (2018), Mahomes (2017), and Goff and Preskott (2016) that all have shown flashes of (or have shown) Superbowl potential.
 
QB is the worst evaluated and coached position in all of football. I have never seen so many guys get opportunities based on so little (Tuel) or seen guys routinely asked to do what everyone in the building knows they're bad at (Tebow).

And everyone is chasing what they believe to be a "franchise" QB. There are only so many of those guys out there to be had. So you see teams wind up in a never ending turnstile at the QB position. They never make any headway. They never build anything. They never get anywhere because they won't fully commit to a player.

This idea that they have to get out there and play to develop isn't a bad idea, but why doesn't it apply to other positions? No one ever says for this linebacker to get better we have to put him out there even if he isn't ready. So here are all these rookie QB's strolling onto the field, haven't had so much as a cup of coffee in the league, aren't ready AT ALL to play and a veteran that's won games gets benched. Nick Foles, GM, Ryan Fitzpatrick... only 1 team is gonna win the Super Bowl. Only 2 teams are gonna get there. Rather than put these kids out there that may or may not be worth a damn, why not win games, put a good product on the field and if the younger player wins the job - he wins the job. Instead you get smoked by 3 touchdowns every week all in the name of "learning."
Not gonna disagree with you about QB but it’s not the only position that NFL “smart guys“ F up on. Another thing I’d say about NFL brass is they are terrible poker players/keepers of secrets. How the hell does DK Metcalf have like 15 other receivers drafted ahead of him? Only way I see it is every coach/GM KNEW nobody was gonna touch him in the first 50+picks. If there’s a truly overpaid position in life it’s NFL GM because A LOT of armchair QBs could do a better job putting together a team than some of these knuckleheads.
 
I bet its close to one--over the last 5 years you've got Burrow and Herbert (2020), Kyler Murray (2019), Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen (2018), Mahomes (2017), and Goff and Preskott (2016) that all have shown flashes of (or have shown) Superbowl potential.
I’ll admit I thought Herbert was going to be Jake Locker 2.0. What the Chargers did with that guy in a short amount of time is phenomenal. Then they fired their coach 🤷
 
I enjoyed the Brady & Brees meeting last week. When you talk about "franchise qb's", there are two examples. It got me thinking, and led to a question that seems to fit in this thread. My question: is there even one of those franchise guys produced by the college ranks per year, on average? No way is there 2 per year on average. I am not sure that we even average one of those guys per year....?
Which is why you grab one of those franchise QBs when you can....which is what Jacksonville is probably thinking. The only question is whether the odds are with you that TL will live up to the billing. I think the answer is yes and the potential payoff will be worth any risk that he doesn't.

Glad Cougar
 
I enjoyed the Brady & Brees meeting last week. When you talk about "franchise qb's", there are two examples. It got me thinking, and led to a question that seems to fit in this thread. My question: is there even one of those franchise guys produced by the college ranks per year, on average? No way is there 2 per year on average. I am not sure that we even average one of those guys per year....?
One of the problems is the best QB of the year goes to one of the 2 worst teams of the year, and historically, those teams are the worst teams year in and year out. In other words, Jesus Christ couldn't make magic there.

I think the Browns had 5x first-round QBs in the last 20 years? Think about that. How many are still balling now if they played for the Cowboys, Chiefs, Steelers, Hawks, Packers or other teams that rarely go below 0.333?

David Carr was the first overall pick in the '02 draft for the Texans. After being sacked 76 (!) times in his first year - 5x per game - he was toast. He's retired and he still hears footsteps when he goes to the kitchen to make a sandwich. By contrast, it took Tom Brady 3 seasons to hit that number. I doubt Brady ever sells a jersey if he gets sacked 76 times in Year 1. Imagine if Andrew Luck worked with Bill Belichick instead of Caldwell-cum-Pagano?
 
One of the problems is the best QB of the year goes to one of the 2 worst teams of the year, and historically, those teams are the worst teams year in and year out. In other words, Jesus Christ couldn't make magic there.

I think the Browns had 5x first-round QBs in the last 20 years? Think about that. How many are still balling now if they played for the Cowboys, Chiefs, Steelers, Hawks, Packers or other teams that rarely go below 0.333?

David Carr was the first overall pick in the '02 draft for the Texans. After being sacked 76 (!) times in his first year - 5x per game - he was toast. He's retired and he still hears footsteps when he goes to the kitchen to make a sandwich. By contrast, it took Tom Brady 3 seasons to hit that number. I doubt Brady ever sells a jersey if he gets sacked 76 times in Year 1. Imagine if Andrew Luck worked with Bill Belichick instead of Caldwell-cum-Pagano?

Fair point, but it maybe those guys (Carr, et al.) were never going to be good anyway. To me it just emphasizes when you get it right you are in good shape, as I detailed in the other thread most the QB's in the playoffs this year were 1st rounders, most of them high 1st rounders.

2019-Kyler Murray, 2nd year, almost made the playoffs (pretty much the rest of this class has been bad)
2018-Baker Mayfield, playoffs and won a game; Josh Allen still playing this year; Lamar Jackson-3 straight playoff appearances
2017-Patrick Mahomes, DeShaun Watson, hell even Trubisky has gotten the Bears into the playoffs twice
2016-Goff in SB his 1st full yr as a starter, Wentz was league MVP until he got hurt and Foles took it home (admittedly both these guys haven't progressed or even have regressed, but they have had team success)
2015-Last 1st round where zero QB's panned out (Winston & Mariotta)

So these highly drafted QBs who are going to bad teams, do manage to turn it around, if they are any good, that's the crap shoot who is good and who is not? Previous organizational success or lack thereof would not keep me from taking a QB with a high pick if I felt the guy had what it takes to be a top flight QB--if I'm wrong I get fired, If I'm right, likely I'm winning a bunch of games and in the hunt year after year for a decade.

By the Way The Colts were 2-14 the year before Luck, his rookie year they went 11-5; and made the playoffs, then 11-5 division champs, won a playoff game; then another 11-5 season , made it to the AFC championship game. When he was healthy he was a monster, he decided the injuries weren't worth it, but he would still be a top 5 QB had he persisted and got healthy, so he was far from a bust IMO, injuries just got him.
 
I always thought Winston was gonna fail. He is a dipshit.

Marriota, imo, has yet to land somewhere that runs what he is good at.

I think there are a lot of qbs that find a similar fate. Bad scheme, bad coaching, bad roster, asked to do what they arent good at, then released and deemed a failure. How can you be successful when working in such a crap situation?
 
I always thought Winston was gonna fail. He is a dipshit.

Marriota, imo, has yet to land somewhere that runs what he is good at.

I think there are a lot of qbs that find a similar fate. Bad scheme, bad coaching, bad roster, asked to do what they arent good at, then released and deemed a failure. How can you be successful when working in such a crap situation?
Mariota has shown some flashes, and could pan out somewhere as a decent QB. I don’t see him starting in a Pro Bowl, and I think he’s got a limited window. Once age or injury impacts his speed and quickness, he’s done.

Winston seems to have hit his ceiling. Limited vision, mediocre decision making, little to no evidence of improvement. If the Saints offered me him for Minshew, I’d still want a 2nd-3rd round pick too. (Actually, I’d reject that trade - Winston isn’t worth what he’s being paid.)
 
Fair point, but it maybe those guys (Carr, et al.) were never going to be good anyway. To me it just emphasizes when you get it right you are in good shape, as I detailed in the other thread most the QB's in the playoffs this year were 1st rounders, most of them high 1st rounders.

2019-Kyler Murray, 2nd year, almost made the playoffs (pretty much the rest of this class has been bad)
2018-Baker Mayfield, playoffs and won a game; Josh Allen still playing this year; Lamar Jackson-3 straight playoff appearances
2017-Patrick Mahomes, DeShaun Watson, hell even Trubisky has gotten the Bears into the playoffs twice
2016-Goff in SB his 1st full yr as a starter, Wentz was league MVP until he got hurt and Foles took it home (admittedly both these guys haven't progressed or even have regressed, but they have had team success)
2015-Last 1st round where zero QB's panned out (Winston & Mariotta)

So these highly drafted QBs who are going to bad teams, do manage to turn it around, if they are any good, that's the crap shoot who is good and who is not? Previous organizational success or lack thereof would not keep me from taking a QB with a high pick if I felt the guy had what it takes to be a top flight QB--if I'm wrong I get fired, If I'm right, likely I'm winning a bunch of games and in the hunt year after year for a decade.

By the Way The Colts were 2-14 the year before Luck, his rookie year they went 11-5; and made the playoffs, then 11-5 division champs, won a playoff game; then another 11-5 season , made it to the AFC championship game. When he was healthy he was a monster, he decided the injuries weren't worth it, but he would still be a top 5 QB had he persisted and got healthy, so he was far from a bust IMO, injuries just got him.
I think it's clear that good QBs are good QBs, and so - as you established - there is a correlation between good QBs and success. I'm only making the point that, at least at the margins - the margins being the Browns at one end and the Patriots at the other - a bad situation can turn a would-be GOAT into a never-was. It's not clear that Carr was going to be a world-beater but, to your point, he WAS the overall #1 pick. Good chance we know him better than his brother if he doesn't get sacked 76 times in year 1
 
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I think it's clear that good QBs are good QBs, and so - as you established - there is a correlation between good QBs and success. I'm only making the point that, at least at the margins - the margins being the Browns at one end and the Patriots at the other - a bad situation can turn a would-be GOAT into a never-was. It's not clear that Carr was going to be a world-beater but, to your point, he WAS the overall #1 pick. Good chance we know him better than his brother if he doesn't get sacked 76 times in year 1
I do agree a good culture will nurture the talents and a bad one can at the very least limit the success to as you said make them full blown failures.

I roll my eyes at the "ravens won with Trent Dilfer" (I realize you didn't maybe say that, but saw it somewhere). That's the exception, not the rule and he played with a all-time top 3 defense on that side of the ball, and i venture to guess if the defense was not that good, he wouldn't have sniffed a SB. Winning in the NFL requires a top end QB or some form of a all-time defense, coach, or other talent around a game manager QB then. I read now the Dolphins are already thinking that maybe Tua isn't the guy and may trade for Watson or draft another QB since they have the 3rd pick, some guys have it and you know right away, other don't and you know right away, and its best to move on if its the former, otherwise you'll sink several years into a guy who's never gonna come around. As much as I hate the Cardinals, them moving off Rosen to Murray when they had the chance was 100% the right move, most GM's/Teams would have stuck with Rosen for minimum 2-3 years even though its likely they knew in their heart of hearts he wasn't the guy, cause they don't want to look stupid in the PR department. Don't pass on top QB talent when you get the chance.
 
I do agree a good culture will nurture the talents and a bad one can at the very least limit the success to as you said make them full blown failures.

I roll my eyes at the "ravens won with Trent Dilfer" (I realize you didn't maybe say that, but saw it somewhere). That's the exception, not the rule and he played with a all-time top 3 defense on that side of the ball, and i venture to guess if the defense was not that good, he wouldn't have sniffed a SB. Winning in the NFL requires a top end QB or some form of a all-time defense, coach, or other talent around a game manager QB then. I read now the Dolphins are already thinking that maybe Tua isn't the guy and may trade for Watson or draft another QB since they have the 3rd pick, some guys have it and you know right away, other don't and you know right away, and its best to move on if its the former, otherwise you'll sink several years into a guy who's never gonna come around. As much as I hate the Cardinals, them moving off Rosen to Murray when they had the chance was 100% the right move, most GM's/Teams would have stuck with Rosen for minimum 2-3 years even though its likely they knew in their heart of hearts he wasn't the guy, cause they don't want to look stupid in the PR department. Don't pass on top QB talent when you get the chance.

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Well, if there is any truth to the Miami rumor about not being happy with Tua, perhaps they would make a great trading partner for Jacksonville? Miami has the #3 and #18 pick, plus two second rounders to bargain with. Maybe throw Tua in the deal. And Miami was 10-6 this year, wouldn't that be a better landing spot for TL? Maybe he would pull a power play on the Jags like Manning did, and force a trade? You never know what would happen.

I just checked out a few mock drafts, and nobody is counting on that pick to be traded, so maybe that guarantees that it WILL be traded? lol But, one guy is predicting a trade for the #2 pick, check it out:

TRADE: San Francisco trades 2021 1st & 2nd round picks, 2022 1st, 2nd & 3rd round picks & 2023 3rd round pick to New York (Jets) for No. 2 overall

The 49ers make a big splash. The Jets make a shocking move. Welcome to pandemonium, everyone!

The inspiration for this trade was the Los Angeles Rams' trade for Jared Goff in 2016, when the Rams gave up two 1s, two 2s and two 3s to move up from No. 16 overall.

Now that is quite a haul in draft picks. With a similar haul, I think it would be very tempting for Jags to do a deal like that. Several of the mock drafts had 3, even 4 QB's going at the very top of the draft, so they could still end up with a very highly rated QB. Or a lot of very talented players at other positions to boost up the team talent. Will be fun to watch and speculate as this goes along.
 
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Well, if there is any truth to the Miami rumor about not being happy with Tua, perhaps they would make a great trading partner for Jacksonville? Miami has the #3 and #18 pick, plus two second rounders to bargain with. Maybe throw Tua in the deal. And Miami was 10-6 this year, wouldn't that be a better landing spot for TL? Maybe he would pull a power play on the Jags like Manning did, and force a trade? You never know what would happen.

I just checked out a few mock drafts, and nobody is counting on that pick to be traded, so maybe that guarantees that it WILL be traded? lol But, one guy is predicting a trade for the #2 pick, check it out:

TRADE: San Francisco trades 2021 1st & 2nd round picks, 2022 1st, 2nd & 3rd round picks & 2023 3rd round pick to New York (Jets) for No. 2 overall

The 49ers make a big splash. The Jets make a shocking move. Welcome to pandemonium, everyone!

The inspiration for this trade was the Los Angeles Rams' trade for Jared Goff in 2016, when the Rams gave up two 1s, two 2s and two 3s to move up from No. 16 overall.

Now that is quite a haul in draft picks. With a similar haul, I think it would be very tempting for Jags to do a deal like that. Several of the mock drafts had 3, even 4 QB's going at the very top of the draft, so they could still end up with a very highly rated QB. Or a lot of very talented players at other positions to boost up the team talent. Will be fun to watch and speculate as this goes along.
There could be as many as 5 QBs going in the first round.....but the gap between the top guy (TL) and the next best (either Fields or Wilson....depending on who you talk to) is huge, IMO. I'm repeating myself, Stretch, but I need to stress that Jacksonville already has quite a haul in draft picks without needing to deal the #1 pick. They get 5 of the top 65 picks and 11 picks overall. They can take the best QB in the draft AND get really good players with those other 4 picks in the top 65.

Glad Cougar
 
There could be as many as 5 QBs going in the first round.....but the gap between the top guy (TL) and the next best (either Fields or Wilson....depending on who you talk to) is huge, IMO. I'm repeating myself, Stretch, but I need to stress that Jacksonville already has quite a haul in draft picks without needing to deal the #1 pick. They get 5 of the top 65 picks and 11 picks overall. They can take the best QB in the draft AND get really good players with those other 4 picks in the top 65.

Glad Cougar
Agree, I don't see JAX trading down, TL is (by all accounts) a top of the top talent, and no GM will pass on that type of QB, it would immediately kill the buzz around the franchise and even a hint of poor play by who you do take will be met with "they should have taken Lawrence".
 
There could be as many as 5 QBs going in the first round.....but the gap between the top guy (TL) and the next best (either Fields or Wilson....depending on who you talk to) is huge, IMO. I'm repeating myself, Stretch, but I need to stress that Jacksonville already has quite a haul in draft picks without needing to deal the #1 pick. They get 5 of the top 65 picks and 11 picks overall. They can take the best QB in the draft AND get really good players with those other 4 picks in the top 65.

Glad Cougar
Yeah they have a lot of draft capital and a lot of cap room. And Lawrence won’t make a dent in it compared to what teams are paying franchise QBs now. If they just do OK with what they have and Lawrence turns out to be what many experts think he can be, they could be making a deep playoff run in year 2. All the ingredients are there.
 
No, but it sure helps, especially in today's NFL. Check the list of Super Bowl winners the past 15 years. Dilfer was 20 years ago, but since 2005, only Foles and Flacco would be considered a non-star QB. The other SB winners over that time frame include Brady, Manning, Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, and Rothlesberger.

IMO, Trevor Lawrence is going to be a better draft pick than Baker Mayfield, who helped Cleveland become a playoff winner in less than 3 years. Jacksonville already has a whopping 11 picks in this year's draft, including two first round picks, two second round picks, and 5 of the top 65 picks overall. They can grab the best QB in the draft as part of that haul.

Glad Cougar

Brady and Bree, and I think Roth, were lowest ended 1st round to 2nd,3rd,4th, 5th, 6th round draft picks.

So Brady, Roth, Bree, Flacco, Foles, Trent Dilfer, Russel Wilson(2nd Round, that's a lot of Superbowl winners that werent drafted either Top 4 of 1st round to even in 1st round.

Yes 11 picks, to get Lawrence, and 10 others is ok, good, etc.

But Trading the #1 pick for 2 more 1st rounders, 1,2 2nd Rounders, 1 3rd Rounders.

Thats about 16,17 draft picks:

4 1st rounders, 4 2nd rounders, 2,3 3rd rounders, 2 4th rounders, 2 5th rounders, 2 6th rounders, 1,2 7th rounders.

Now with that, You take a still pretty good QB at #7 to #12 pick of 1st round(There just isnt that much of a drop off at QB between picks #1 and #7 and to #12 in the 1st round)

Then you take a 1st round LT, a 1st round DL, a 1st Round DB, or LB(Best Available).

Then you Spend your 3,4 2nd round picks on RB, WR.

Then you take the best available that fills roster holes, the rest of draft.

If Done right, with good evaluation, development, you end up with a good, great, but cheaper QB, with a good, but cheaper supporting cast around that QB, that frees up money for 1,2,3 Free Agents, that all that combined wins your division, goes deep in playoffs, wins superbowls.

That is how Pete Carrol and the Seahawks General Manager built the Seahawks, won a Superbowl with the Seahawks.

That is the BLUEPRINT for the Jags.

If Pete Carrol, and the Seahawks General Manager worked for the Jags, what would they do?

Would they take Lawrence, and 10 other picks?

Or would they take a QB at, between picks 7 to 12 of the 1st round, after trading Lawrence, er the #1 pick, and then draft 15,16,17 more as a supporting cast?

Would they rather have 10,11 picks, or 15,16,17 picks?

They would trade away Lawrence, get 15,16,17 picks, pick a QB at #7 to #12 of 1st round, draft a supporting cast, use the savings for 1,2,3 Free Agents, and then win division, goto playoffs, superbowl, win superbowl within 1,2,3,4 years.

Thats what they would do for the Jags, and how they would do it.

But be that as it would be, its a mute, moot point, because of Jags ownership, front office, Urban Meyer who wont trade Lawrence the #1 pick, because its supposedly technically safer, and not a big risk gamble, considering how many #1 pick of 1st round QB's end up as BUST.
 
MATH:

4, 1st round draft picks: 1 at #7, 1 at #14, 1 at #22, 1 at #30,

and 4, 2 round picks, and 3, 3rd round picks, 2 4th rounders, 2 5th rounders, 2 6th rounders, 2 7th rounders

QB at #7, LT at #14, DL at #22, DB/LB/RB/WR(Best player available to fills a hole.

15, 16, 17 picks

Is better then:

2, 1st rounders, 1 #1 pick(Lawrence(QB)

1. Lawrence. 2. LT

2, 2nd rounders

1. DL 2. DB/LB/RB/WR/OL

2, 3rd rounders

1. DB/LB/RB/WR/OL

1,2 4th rounders

1,2 5th rounders

1 6th rounder

1 7th rounders

10, 11 picks.

Comparison:

With Lawrence, Your draft picks are 1.5 rounds behind, not as high, not as good as the other way.

Example either not getting a DB, LB/RB/WR/A 2nd OL, etc, until the 3rd round, when the other way takes them in the 1st round.

Taking Fields, or another QB with the #7 pick of 1st round is almost as good as Lawrence, isnt that far or to far a drop from Lawrence, and can still win division, goto playoffs, goto superbowl, win superbowl, within 1 to 5 years assuming supporting cast picks works out.
 
In your scenario, you have Jacksonville trading the #1 overall pick for the first round picks currently belonging to Detroit (#7), Minnesota (#14), Tennessee (#22), and Buffalo (#30). How is that supposed to work? You do understand that first pick will be traded to ONE team, not FOUR teams. Perhaps you are suggesting trading that pick to a team that has two first round picks this year (Miami or the Jets). That doesn't add up to four first rounders and I doubt those teams are trading two first rounders to move up just one spot (Jets) or two spots (Miami). I don't understand. Please explain.

And I disagree with your premise that there isn't that much of a dropoff between Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields (or any other QB available in this draft). But that's just a matter of my opinion. Currently, Jacksonville has 5 of the first 60 picks....they can fill a lot of holes by the time other teams draft in the 3rd round and still have the best QB in the draft.

One other consideration, this isn't a real deep draft. Many college players who would normally be drafted are coming back for an additional year. (Borghi and Lucas among Cougar players....many other top players at other programs staying in school). I"m not sure this is the year to try and spend 17 draft picks under your scenario.

Glad Cougar
 
In your scenario, you have Jacksonville trading the #1 overall pick for the first round picks currently belonging to Detroit (#7), Minnesota (#14), Tennessee (#22), and Buffalo (#30). How is that supposed to work? You do understand that first pick will be traded to ONE team, not FOUR teams. Perhaps you are suggesting trading that pick to a team that has two first round picks this year (Miami or the Jets). That doesn't add up to four first rounders and I doubt those teams are trading two first rounders to move up just one spot (Jets) or two spots (Miami). I don't understand. Please explain.

And I disagree with your premise that there isn't that much of a dropoff between Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields (or any other QB available in this draft). But that's just a matter of my opinion. Currently, Jacksonville has 5 of the first 60 picks....they can fill a lot of holes by the time other teams draft in the 3rd round and still have the best QB in the draft.

One other consideration, this isn't a real deep draft. Many college players who would normally be drafted are coming back for an additional year. (Borghi and Lucas among Cougar players....many other top players at other programs staying in school). I"m not sure this is the year to try and spend 17 draft picks under your scenario.

Glad Cougar

Where I get the numbers:

If they keep Lawrence, they have:

2 1st round picks, and 2 2nd round picks.

If they trade Lawrence, for 2 1st round picks, 1 or 2 2nd round picks, 1 3rd round pick, they would have:

4 1st round picks(2 Via Lawrence trade), 3,4 2nd rounders(1,2 via Lawrence trade, 3 3rd rounders(1 via Lawrence trade)

As to the #7, #14, #22, #30.

That is just a example of what they could do.

Lets say in that example that they have any 2 of those 4 picks I mentioned (They do have 2 1st rounders keeping Lawrence, no trade).

Then they trade Lawrence, #1 for 2 more 1st rounders, and end up with say as a example, #7, #14, #22, #30

Or #9, #17, #26, #33, as another example.

I dont know which 2 1st round picks they have now, without a trade, but thats not important.

Point is that no matter which 2 1st rounders they have now, they can get 1 pick, picks 7 to 12, 1 pick picks 15 to 23, 1 pick picks 25 to 29, 1 pick near last pick of 1st round, for 4 total 1st round picks.

And they can do that because Lawrence is that good, and teams are that desperate to get Lawrence.

Examples have been provided of teams giving up 1,2,3 1st rounders, 1,2,3 2nd rounders, 1,2,3 3rd rounders, giving up all their draft picks, giving up a hell of a lot.

If Pete Carrol, Seahawks General Manager were working for the Jags, they could EASILY get 2 1st rounders, 2 2nd rounders, 1 3rd rounder, etc, in a 2 or 3 way, 2 or 3 team deal.


Yeah your right that the draft is not deep, that's why you 1st trade Lawrence for 17 picks, 4 of which are 1st rounders, 4 of which are 2nd rounders.

Then you trade those 17 picks for MORE 1st round picks, 2nd Round picks.

And say they do that. Trade 2.5 picks for each 1st round or 2nd round pick, then they could trade 8 lower picks for 3 picks(2 1st rounders, 1 2nd rounder.

So they would have 5,6 1st round picks, and 5 2nd round picks as their about 10 picks.

And they get the #2 or #3 QB in the draft in the 1st round.

Bottom line is the Jags need to get as many 1st rounders, and 2nd rounders as possible, since 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th round selections, might probably not give the Jags the help that they need.

Trading Lawrence, and trading lower round picks will get the Jags enough 1st rounders, 2nd rounders on top of what they already have to then thus give the Jags a HELL OF A LOT of 1st round picks, 2nd round picks.

Thats what the Jags shiuld do, but wont do
 
Where I get the numbers:

If they keep Lawrence, they have:

2 1st round picks, and 2 2nd round picks.

If they trade Lawrence, for 2 1st round picks, 1 or 2 2nd round picks, 1 3rd round pick, they would have:

4 1st round picks(2 Via Lawrence trade), 3,4 2nd rounders(1,2 via Lawrence trade, 3 3rd rounders(1 via Lawrence trade)

As to the #7, #14, #22, #30.

That is just a example of what they could do.

Lets say in that example that they have any 2 of those 4 picks I mentioned (They do have 2 1st rounders keeping Lawrence, no trade).

Then they trade Lawrence, #1 for 2 more 1st rounders, and end up with say as a example, #7, #14, #22, #30

Or #9, #17, #26, #33, as another example.

I dont know which 2 1st round picks they have now, without a trade, but thats not important.

Point is that no matter which 2 1st rounders they have now, they can get 1 pick, picks 7 to 12, 1 pick picks 15 to 23, 1 pick picks 25 to 29, 1 pick near last pick of 1st round, for 4 total 1st round picks.

And they can do that because Lawrence is that good, and teams are that desperate to get Lawrence.

Examples have been provided of teams giving up 1,2,3 1st rounders, 1,2,3 2nd rounders, 1,2,3 3rd rounders, giving up all their draft picks, giving up a hell of a lot.

If Pete Carrol, Seahawks General Manager were working for the Jags, they could EASILY get 2 1st rounders, 2 2nd rounders, 1 3rd rounder, etc, in a 2 or 3 way, 2 or 3 team deal.


Yeah your right that the draft is not deep, that's why you 1st trade Lawrence for 17 picks, 4 of which are 1st rounders, 4 of which are 2nd rounders.

Then you trade those 17 picks for MORE 1st round picks, 2nd Round picks.

And say they do that. Trade 2.5 picks for each 1st round or 2nd round pick, then they could trade 8 lower picks for 3 picks(2 1st rounders, 1 2nd rounder.

So they would have 5,6 1st round picks, and 5 2nd round picks as their about 10 picks.

And they get the #2 or #3 QB in the draft in the 1st round.

Bottom line is the Jags need to get as many 1st rounders, and 2nd rounders as possible, since 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th round selections, might probably not give the Jags the help that they need.

Trading Lawrence, and trading lower round picks will get the Jags enough 1st rounders, 2nd rounders on top of what they already have to then thus give the Jags a HELL OF A LOT of 1st round picks, 2nd round picks.

Thats what the Jags shiuld do, but wont do
I think the Jags can win either way, and this situation would be hard for even them to F up. That said, you have a bunch of draft picks you still gotta hit on some of them to make it work. I’m on record as saying I think they can win with Minshew if they loaded up on good young players through the draft and filled holes carefully through FA.
Here’s one you may remember. The Redskins fleeced the Saints by trading back 7 spots so they could draft Ricky Williams...then took Cade McNown with the 12th pick and didn’t do much better from there.
 
I think the Jags can win either way, and this situation would be hard for even them to F up. That said, you have a bunch of draft picks you still gotta hit on some of them to make it work. I’m on record as saying I think they can win with Minshew if they loaded up on good young players through the draft and filled holes carefully through FA.
Here’s one you may remember. The Redskins fleeced the Saints by trading back 7 spots so they could draft Ricky Williams...then took Cade McNown with the 12th pick and didn’t do much better from there.

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Check out the biggest trade in NFL history, Herschel Walker going from the Dallas Cowboys to Minnesota. There are a lot of further trades with draft picks and players involved. You can check out the full outcome at link below, the key pieces involved are in the box. The Cowboys with Jimmy Johnson coaching, went from the worst team in the league to three Super Bowl wins.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herschel_Walker_trade


Dallas CowboysMinnesota Vikings
 
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You can make a case either way, but a proven player for enough high picks is almost always a good deal for the team getting the picks...unless they simply can't evaluate kids before drafting.

As for Jax, it seems likely that they will take TL. The real question is, "what will they do with all the rest of those picks?".

I hope the O line is a priority, so they don't ruin their investment in TL.
 
This is a pretty deep draft for offensive linemen compared to most years. Jax should be able to get at least a couple of good ones among the 11 picks they have this year.

Glad Cougar
 
****************************

Check out the biggest trade in NFL history, Herschel Walker going from the Dallas Cowboys to Minnesota. There are a lot of further trades with draft picks and players involved. You can check out the full outcome at link below, the key pieces involved are in the box. The Cowboys with Jimmy Johnson coaching, went from the worst team in the league to three Super Bowl wins.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herschel_Walker_trade


Dallas CowboysMinnesota Vikings
Your table is slightly misleading, if someone doesn't know the history. The trade was lopsided by any measure - the Cowboys sent 3 picks and Herschel Walker to Minnesota in exchange for 4 players and 8 picks - included 3 years' worth of 1st and 2nd rounders.

What really made it lopsided is what the Cowboys did with the picks. According to ESPN, the picks they got from Minnesota eventually involved 15 teams and 55 players (as Jimmy Johnson involved those picks in a bunch of subsequent deals). Between the picks they got, their own picks, and the trades they made, Dallas cleaned up. They had already picked up Michael Irvin and Troy Aikman, they got Emmitt Smith in '90. In '91 they grabbed Russell Maryland, Alvin Harper, Erik Williams, Leon Lett, and Larry Brown. Those are just the names people remember. They'd also grabbed other starters that weren't necessarily stars during the same period, and they went from earning the #1 pick in 1989 to dominating the Super Bowl in 1992.

Strangest thing in the whole trade was that even though Herschel Walker was one of the best backs in the league at the time of the trade, both teams (Cowboys and Vikings) were better without him.
 
****************************

Check out the biggest trade in NFL history, Herschel Walker going from the Dallas Cowboys to Minnesota. There are a lot of further trades with draft picks and players involved. You can check out the full outcome at link below, the key pieces involved are in the box. The Cowboys with Jimmy Johnson coaching, went from the worst team in the league to three Super Bowl wins.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herschel_Walker_trade


Dallas CowboysMinnesota Vikings
Yup that’s a good one too. Love looking at these old blockbuster trades and how they turned out. Funny to see what teams gave up for RBs back then.
 
Your table is slightly misleading, if someone doesn't know the history. The trade was lopsided by any measure - the Cowboys sent 3 picks and Herschel Walker to Minnesota in exchange for 4 players and 8 picks - included 3 years' worth of 1st and 2nd rounders.

What really made it lopsided is what the Cowboys did with the picks. According to ESPN, the picks they got from Minnesota eventually involved 15 teams and 55 players (as Jimmy Johnson involved those picks in a bunch of subsequent deals). Between the picks they got, their own picks, and the trades they made, Dallas cleaned up. They had already picked up Michael Irvin and Troy Aikman, they got Emmitt Smith in '90. In '91 they grabbed Russell Maryland, Alvin Harper, Erik Williams, Leon Lett, and Larry Brown. Those are just the names people remember. They'd also grabbed other starters that weren't necessarily stars during the same period, and they went from earning the #1 pick in 1989 to dominating the Super Bowl in 1992.

Strangest thing in the whole trade was that even though Herschel Walker was one of the best backs in the league at the time of the trade, both teams (Cowboys and Vikings) were better without him.
Jimmy also invented the modern day draft value chart. I was never a Jimmy fan, but no question he bucked some trends and was a visionary.
 
Jimmy also invented the modern day draft value chart. I was never a Jimmy fan, but no question he bucked some trends and was a visionary.
I was no Jimmy fan either. He was at Miami after all!

Now the confession... one guilty pleasure of mine is Survivor... can’t help it... go ahead and mock me. I’ll distribute “likes” when you do.

Jimmy Johnson was on Survivor several years ago. One of the more likable characters I’ve ever seen on the show. He is a really good guy or one hell of an actor. He exudes positivity.
 
Arkansas football in the early 60's was one of those really interesting places. Broyles was a very good HC. Switzer, Johnson and Jerry Jones all played for Frank (along with others who stayed in football). When Broyles retired, Johnson wanted the job but Lou Holtz got it, so Jimmy left. Ended up on Sherrill's staff at Pitt for a couple of years when Jackie left WSU, then got the HC job at OSU. I was in Tulsa when Johnson was HC at OSU and Switzer at OU. Those two had a very interesting relationship; half the fun leading up to the OU/OSU game was listening to them talk about each other. I had the impression that they really liked each other, but were so competitive that little else mattered. Barry was a bit of a thug, and Jimmy was not, though either would cheat if they thought they could get away with it and there was an advantage to them. Jimmy was also incredibly high energy; in his early HC years he made Jimmy Lake look placid. We always wondered how much hair product he used, because despite all the movement, his hair never moved. Sigh....good memories. Tulsa was neutral ground between OU, OSU and Arkansas, and all 3 got extensive coverage.
 
You can make a case either way, but a proven player for enough high picks is almost always a good deal for the team getting the picks...unless they simply can't evaluate kids before drafting.

As for Jax, it seems likely that they will take TL. The real question is, "what will they do with all the rest of those picks?".

I hope the O line is a priority, so they don't ruin their investment in TL.

They have to use a 1st round pick on a LT if they take TL. You cannot draft TL and watch him get pounded. You build an offense from the inside out.

Ozzie Newsome built the Ravens taking the best player available. Not a bad idea for Jax. Also wouldnt be bad to push all the picks on one side of the ball, the other side all the FAs. Then switch the next year. Any way you slice it they need as much talent as possible all over. The only bad that can happen is if they miss on these picks.
 
Your table is slightly misleading, if someone doesn't know the history. The trade was lopsided by any measure - the Cowboys sent 3 picks and Herschel Walker to Minnesota in exchange for 4 players and 8 picks - included 3 years' worth of 1st and 2nd rounders.

What really made it lopsided is what the Cowboys did with the picks. According to ESPN, the picks they got from Minnesota eventually involved 15 teams and 55 players (as Jimmy Johnson involved those picks in a bunch of subsequent deals). Between the picks they got, their own picks, and the trades they made, Dallas cleaned up. They had already picked up Michael Irvin and Troy Aikman, they got Emmitt Smith in '90. In '91 they grabbed Russell Maryland, Alvin Harper, Erik Williams, Leon Lett, and Larry Brown. Those are just the names people remember. They'd also grabbed other starters that weren't necessarily stars during the same period, and they went from earning the #1 pick in 1989 to dominating the Super Bowl in 1992.

Strangest thing in the whole trade was that even though Herschel Walker was one of the best backs in the league at the time of the trade, both teams (Cowboys and Vikings) were better without him.

*****************

I referred to all the follow on trades in the post, and the like is there for anyone that wants to look into it further. I just wanted to include the key details. The Cowboys were dealing like maniacs back then, more player turnovers than a bakery. They got them and then either cut them or traded them again. They were mocked by many "experts" that claimed you needed stability to win, but Jimmy and Jerry blew that idea right out of the water. That was a Hell of a team for a few years, and IIRC, it ended up getting raided and decimated by other teams because of the newly instituted salary cap. They lost some pretty good players and also a ton of their quality depth. Cowboys had been my favorite team since the late 1960's.

From that wiki article there was a link to other big trades like Eric Dickerson, and some early AFL trades also. Pretty interesting. I think the Rams drafted and traded for 4 running backs in two years trying to replace Dickerson. Just looked again and they did, here is that trade for ED:
None of those backs could hold a candle to Dickerson. Wasn't Owen Gill a second round pick by the Seahawks? Rams used up three first round picks and a second round pick trying to replace Dickerson.

Did you all see that Deshaun (sp?) Watson is wanting to be traded out of Houston? Wonder what kind of deal could be made with them? Possibly some kind of 3 way deal like the Dickerson trade so that JV gets an established QB and Houston unloads an unhappy QB. Would be a better spot for Trevor, going to a solid team. Hmmmmm, fun to speculate.........
 
*****************

I referred to all the follow on trades in the post, and the like is there for anyone that wants to look into it further. I just wanted to include the key details. The Cowboys were dealing like maniacs back then, more player turnovers than a bakery. They got them and then either cut them or traded them again. They were mocked by many "experts" that claimed you needed stability to win, but Jimmy and Jerry blew that idea right out of the water. That was a Hell of a team for a few years, and IIRC, it ended up getting raided and decimated by other teams because of the newly instituted salary cap. They lost some pretty good players and also a ton of their quality depth. Cowboys had been my favorite team since the late 1960's.

From that wiki article there was a link to other big trades like Eric Dickerson, and some early AFL trades also. Pretty interesting. I think the Rams drafted and traded for 4 running backs in two years trying to replace Dickerson. Just looked again and they did, here is that trade for ED:
None of those backs could hold a candle to Dickerson. Wasn't Owen Gill a second round pick by the Seahawks? Rams used up three first round picks and a second round pick trying to replace Dickerson.

Did you all see that Deshaun (sp?) Watson is wanting to be traded out of Houston? Wonder what kind of deal could be made with them? Possibly some kind of 3 way deal like the Dickerson trade so that JV gets an established QB and Houston unloads an unhappy QB. Would be a better spot for Trevor, going to a solid team. Hmmmmm, fun to speculate.........
Not sure I see Houston moving Watson. They’d definitely find interested partners, but I think the odds are too great they lose in the deal. Their best move is to keep Watson, but draft/trade/sign him some help. He’ll be less interested in being traded if they show interest in improving.
 
They have to use a 1st round pick on a LT if they take TL. You cannot draft TL and watch him get pounded. You build an offense from the inside out.

Ozzie Newsome built the Ravens taking the best player available. Not a bad idea for Jax. Also wouldnt be bad to push all the picks on one side of the ball, the other side all the FAs. Then switch the next year. Any way you slice it they need as much talent as possible all over. The only bad that can happen is if they miss on these picks.
I like the idea of building a D mostly through free agency. Doesn’t have to be all-pros, but pick up guys with a couple years experience who have demonstrated good instincts and awareness.
If you’re using the draft to fill needs every year, you’re playing from behind. Taking the best available player is likely a better approach.
 
Did anyone see the report that the Rams are sending Goff, two future first round picks (they don't have a 1st this year from the Jalen Ramsey trade), and a 3rd for Mathew Stafford of the Lions. Huge trade. Rams going all in to win now.
 
Did anyone see the report that the Rams are sending Goff, two future first round picks (they don't have a 1st this year from the Jalen Ramsey trade), and a 3rd for Mathew Stafford of the Lions. Huge trade. Rams going all in to win now.
Absolute insanity...spoiler alert. Rams ain’t winning shit with Stafford. Statistically he’s a very average QB making more than average QB $$ and he’s what 33?
Imagine what Watson goes for! Or what Jax could get trading that pick! If Stafford is worth two firsts Minshew is worth one...right?!
 
Absolute insanity...spoiler alert. Rams ain’t winning shit with Stafford. Statistically he’s a very average QB making more than average QB $$ and he’s what 33?
Imagine what Watson goes for! Or what Jax could get trading that pick! If Stafford is worth two firsts Minshew is worth one...right?!

Not only that, but if I remember right, the Rams had either had a past winning season, just barely missed playoffs, had a play off appearance, run, deep run, almost made Superbowl, went to Superbowl, etc, with Goff.

Point of that, Goff was ok for them, not that bad, and with a good team, coach, general manager, development, coach up, supporting cast, OL, etc, he is capable of having a winning season, winning division, going to playoffs, making a run, maybe even going to the Superbowl.

Instead of getting what the Rams, Goff needs to do that, they stupidly trade Goff.

And not only did they stupidly trade Goff, but they get ripped off.

As has been already said, Stafford, is not worth Goff, AND 2,3 1st round picks, 2nd round picks, etc.

The team that traded Stafford did awesome. They can try to trade up for Lawrence, or get a Free Agent QB, or they can just go with Goff.

And they have Stafford's money for Free Agents.

If they play their cards right, they can be a force to be reckoned with.

The Seahawks thank you Rams. 1 Less team, threat to deal with.
 
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