what are the likely bowl scenarios for WSU
- Thread starter royhobbs2
- Start date
Everything from the Holiday Bowl to the Music City Bowl is still on the table depending on what happens in the next two weeks. Vegas or Cheez-It are the most likely destinations in my opinion.
Holiday Bowl happens if Utah wins next week but loses a close game to Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game and the Cotton Bowl decides that they like Utah. We would need to beat UW and have ASU and Cal to lose to make it a more likely conclusion: If that happens, I would guess the following:
Rose: Oregon 11-2 (8-1)
Cotton: Utah 11-2 (8-1)
Alamo: USC 8-4 (7-2)
Holiday: WSU 7-5 (4-5)
Red Box: Cal 6-6 (3-6) (bay area bowl game wants ticket sales)
Sun: ASU 6-6 (3-6) (ASU is closest option)
Vegas: UW 6-6 (3-6) (last team standing)
Hypothetically, the Holiday Bowl and Red Box Bowl Bowl can pick any of the following because they are within one spot in the standings (WSU, Cal, ASU, UW) so we could end up in either the Holiday Bowl or Red Box or Sun depending on what the bowl committees think. Even though Iowa State kicked our ass in fan support, we still had a decent showing at the Alamo Bowl, which I think will help us, but our turnout for the last Holiday Bowl wasn't all that great, so it's hard to say what would happen. If ASU or Cal wins, I think that they are the slam dunk choice for the Holiday Bowl instead of us (because we went twice recently) and we would fall to the Red Box Bowl (or maybe the Sun Bowl) depending on the scenario
If we don't get two teams into the NY6 bowls, everyone moves down a spot (more or less):
Rose: Oregon or Utah
Alamo: Oregon or Utah
Holiday: USC
Red Box: WSU
Sun: ASU (I think they take ASU because of proximity)
Vegas: UW (I think fan support matters in this instance)
Cheez-It: Cal
Again, if Cal wins, they likely go to the Red Box Bowl in this scenario and we go to the Sun Bowl. If Cal loses but ASU wins, I think we get the Red Box Bowl over ASU even in a tie because we have a big fan presence in the Bay Area.
If we lose to UW and finish 6-6, I think we end up in the Vegas Bowl or Cheez-It bowl. We could still end up in any of the others if they decide. We traveled very well to Vegas back in 2012 and I think they take us in a heartbeat if they get the chance. If I were a gambling man, I'd say that Vegas is our most likely destination given the way that UW has owned our asses for a while.
In the unlikely event that Oregon State or Colorado wins next week, there is a slight chance that we fall out of the Pac-12 affiliated bowls. Given that we beat both of them, I think it's incredibly unlikely that we would be pushed behind them.
Holy hell, that's detailed. Nice work Flat. I'll just take your word for it rather than trying to wrap my head around all of that.
Redbox, Sun, Vegas, or Cheez-it.
If things went just right, we could still make Holiday. That would mean Oregon wins the PAC-12 championship and Utah gets an NY6 game, plus we win AC, Oregon beats OSU, UCLA beats Cal, and UA beats ASU. And then Holiday picks us.
Also possible that, if things go just wrong, we could get bounced out of all of the PAC-12 tie-in games and have to wait for an at-large berth somewhere.
Item to note: Alamo, Holiday, and Redbox can pick from the eligible teams that finish within 1 conference win of each other. Nobody can get to 6. USC has 7, so they’re going to Alamo if both Utah and Oregon get NY6 games, Holiday if they don’t. The scenario above puts us in 4th place at 4-5, but Holiday and Redbox could choose any 4-5 or 3-6 team.
After Redbox picks, the Sun, Vegas, and Cheez-it must pick teams based on order of finish.
OSU could be the big spoiler. If they beat the Ducks they get bowl eligible, and they’d be the only team 5-4 in conference. They’d go no lower than Redbox, and eliminate any chance of us going to Holiday.
Assuming a long awaited Apple Cup win and:
Given that, I think we want Utah in the playoffs and ducks in the Rose. Then we’re likely in the fourth place Pac-12 bowl tie in.
The game I’m most nervous about in that scenario is ours. And fucla may not beat Cal.
- Cal loss to fucla
- Beav loss to the Whoregon
- Buffalo loss to Utes
- Wildcat loss to ASU
Given that, I think we want Utah in the playoffs and ducks in the Rose. Then we’re likely in the fourth place Pac-12 bowl tie in.
The game I’m most nervous about in that scenario is ours. And fucla may not beat Cal.
What's the likelihood of a 2006 repeat, should we lose the AC? I could only find three at-large bowl berths, 2 in the Cotton, and one in the Frisco.
Zero. There are enough bowls now that all 6-6 teams get a game. There will be some conferences that can’t fill their tie-ins.
The one correction I’d make is that head to head doesn’t really matter for the Holiday and Redbox. We’d be within a game of ASU so they could take us. Not sure Holiday takes us over ASU, I think Redbox would. For the lower bowls, order of finish is all that matters so any of them would be obligated to take ASU over us if we have the same record.
Yup. Plus any bowl with an at large wouldn’t be able to resist a team like this with a record setting QB. It’s a lock with 6, but let’s go ahead and get 7 and put the dogs in the cellar.
Seven conference teams are now bowl eligible. Three are eliminated. The two teams that are at five wins that could qualify are OSU and CU. OSU travels to Eugene. CU travels to Salt Lake. It is going to be tough for both of those teams.
If somehow one of those teams do win, the advantage that WSU has is Leach is a national coach and WSU has an offense made for TV. I don't see a repeat of 2006.
Good thing that Larry Scott is such a strong commissioner and will do a great job lobbying for the conference teams.
Good ;point about Leach. But with our defense, I"m more concerned about getting the lowest tier possible.
The lower tier bowls don't have to pick based on standings. With Gordon at QB I could see us being a popular pick amongst bowls. Def a lot more exciting than UW or Cal. I've heard Chun has been in talks with Vegas for a while now.
We have ptsd from a myriad of things
You've actually got it backwards. The Alamo, Holiday and Red Box Bowl can choose any team within one spot of the highest available team. The Sun, Vegas and Cheez-It bowls can pick from any of the teams that have the same record as the highest available team....but they have to have the same conference record.
Any chance of the Heart of Dallas Bowl? I hear that’s a very prestigious bowl game, especially if you win.
Vegas would get the biggest attendance, hands down.
But you could make the same statement about the fan bases of several teams under contention for that bowl, so I suspect that they will do well which ever teams end up on their slate.
But you could make the same statement about the fan bases of several teams under contention for that bowl, so I suspect that they will do well which ever teams end up on their slate.
Incorrect. Sun bowl and below have to follow order of finish. Redbox and above can choose based on record, including anyone within 1 win of the best available record (if the best team has 5 wins, they can take anyone with 4 or 5 wins)
