What are the odds? What needs to happen for CFP explained...

[M-I-Coug]

COUGS in the CFP? What needs to happen for WSU to defy the odds...​

Jon Wilner
Oct. 24, 2024 at 10:30 am

Eight weeks in, Washington State remains in contention.

Not for a bowl berth. As winners of six of their first seven games, the Cougars have already locked up a postseason bid.

Not for the conference title, either. In this unprecedented season, there is no Pac-12 title available.

But the Cougars are in contention for the biggest prize: a berth in the College Football Playoff.

That’s the Hotline’s opinion, but we aren’t alone. ESPN’s playoff predictor gives Washington State a 13 percent chance to qualify.

That’s not much, but it’s not zero. And there are plenty of teams, including a few that left the Pac-12 for the Big Ten, with zero chance to reach the CFP.

In our view, the ESPN forecast is a tad optimistic. It’s based on the metrics. When you include the human element that will surely inform the CFP selection committee’s decisions — we’re talking about brand bias, of course — then WSU’s real-world outlook is a darker shade of gray.

Of course, everything hinges on the Cougars (6-1) winning out. They must sweep the final five games to finish 11-1 in order to make the situation interesting when the committee gathers on the weekend of Dec. 8 to select and seed the 12-team field.

That won’t be easy. In fact, Washington State’s faint hopes could be extinguished this weekend by San Diego State, which has had an extra week to prepare for the Cougars’ visit.

But only one of Washington State’s five remaining opponents currently has a winning record: Oregon State, which hosts the Cougars in the penultimate game of the season. The others (SDSU, Wyoming, Utah State and New Mexico) possess a combined record of 8-19.

(If the Cougars are 9-1 when they head to Corvallis, the competitive dynamic will be fascinating: The Beavers would be better served by losing because of the immense benefits that would come with their Pac-12 partner reaching the CFP.)

But an 11-1 record alone probably wouldn’t get the Cougars into the playoff. Remember, the Pac-12’s depleted state means WSU cannot qualify as a conference champion. The only pathway available is through the at-large pool, where the Cougars would compete with Notre Dame and the best teams in the Power Four that don’t win their conference titles.

In the expanded playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids. The next seven teams in the CFP rankings fill out the at-large field.

Put another way: At 11-1, the Cougars would need to finish the season ranked higher than a slew of two- and three-loss teams in the SEC and Big Ten that played tougher schedules, to say nothing of their advantages in the subjective and subconscious factors that will loom in the committee room.

But a slim chance is a chance nonetheless. In our view, the Cougars need help on four fronts, over and above running the table to finish 11-1:

1. Above all, the Cougars need Texas Tech — the team they walloped in Pullman in September — to win the Big 12 title.

Nothing would bolster their case for inclusion more than a head-to-head victory over a Power Four conference champion that’s headed to the CFP as an automatic qualifier.

If that stands as the dream scenario, the reality is far murkier. The Red Raiders (5-2) are merely one of several teams in the hunt in the chaotic Big 12, so let’s not presume this step plays out in WSU’s favor.

2. The Cougars need No. 17 Boise State to run the table in the Mountain West, win the conference title and capture the Group of Five’s automatic bid with a 12-1 record.

If the lone blemish on WSU’s resume is a road loss to a CFP participant whose only loss was by three points at top-ranked Oregon, the Cougars’ resume becomes far more palatable to the committee — especially if Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12.

3. The Cougars need Notre Dame to lose somewhere, anywhere, down the stretch.

In this regard, they are not alone. As an Independent, the Irish (6-1) are only eligible for the CFP through the at-large pool. If they finish 11-1, which is highly plausible given their modest upcoming schedule, the Irish will gobble an at-large spot that would otherwise go to the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten or SEC.

Or Washington State.

4. As grotesque as the reality might be to their fans, the Cougars need Washington (4-3) to finish well in the Big Ten. A top-half placement for the Huskies would add shine to WSU’s victory in the Apple Cup.

The best result possible, of course, would be a UW victory over Oregon in the regular-season finale.

All in all, we give the Cougars a 5 percent chance to reach the CFP.

Which, again, is better than a zero percent chance.

Jon Wilner

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Cougars in the CFP? What needs to happen for WSU to defy the odds​

Jon Wilner
Oct. 24, 2024 at 10:30 am

Eight weeks in, Washington State remains in contention.

Not for a bowl berth. As winners of six of their first seven games, the Cougars have already locked up a postseason bid.

Not for the conference title, either. In this unprecedented season, there is no Pac-12 title available.

But the Cougars are in contention for the biggest prize: a berth in the College Football Playoff.

That’s the Hotline’s opinion, but we aren’t alone. ESPN’s playoff predictor gives Washington State a 13 percent chance to qualify.

That’s not much, but it’s not zero. And there are plenty of teams, including a few that left the Pac-12 for the Big Ten, with zero chance to reach the CFP.

In our view, the ESPN forecast is a tad optimistic. It’s based on the metrics. When you include the human element that will surely inform the CFP selection committee’s decisions — we’re talking about brand bias, of course — then WSU’s real-world outlook is a darker shade of gray.

Of course, everything hinges on the Cougars (6-1) winning out. They must sweep the final five games to finish 11-1 in order to make the situation interesting when the committee gathers on the weekend of Dec. 8 to select and seed the 12-team field.

That won’t be easy. In fact, Washington State’s faint hopes could be extinguished this weekend by San Diego State, which has had an extra week to prepare for the Cougars’ visit.

But only one of Washington State’s five remaining opponents currently has a winning record: Oregon State, which hosts the Cougars in the penultimate game of the season. The others (SDSU, Wyoming, Utah State and New Mexico) possess a combined record of 8-19.

(If the Cougars are 9-1 when they head to Corvallis, the competitive dynamic will be fascinating: The Beavers would be better served by losing because of the immense benefits that would come with their Pac-12 partner reaching the CFP.)

But an 11-1 record alone probably wouldn’t get the Cougars into the playoff. Remember, the Pac-12’s depleted state means WSU cannot qualify as a conference champion. The only pathway available is through the at-large pool, where the Cougars would compete with Notre Dame and the best teams in the Power Four that don’t win their conference titles.

In the expanded playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids. The next seven teams in the CFP rankings fill out the at-large field.

Put another way: At 11-1, the Cougars would need to finish the season ranked higher than a slew of two- and three-loss teams in the SEC and Big Ten that played tougher schedules, to say nothing of their advantages in the subjective and subconscious factors that will loom in the committee room.

But a slim chance is a chance nonetheless. In our view, the Cougars need help on four fronts, over and above running the table to finish 11-1:

1. Above all, the Cougars need Texas Tech — the team they walloped in Pullman in September — to win the Big 12 title.

Nothing would bolster their case for inclusion more than a head-to-head victory over a Power Four conference champion that’s headed to the CFP as an automatic qualifier.

If that stands as the dream scenario, the reality is far murkier. The Red Raiders (5-2) are merely one of several teams in the hunt in the chaotic Big 12, so let’s not presume this step plays out in WSU’s favor.

2. The Cougars need No. 17 Boise State to run the table in the Mountain West, win the conference title and capture the Group of Five’s automatic bid with a 12-1 record.

If the lone blemish on WSU’s resume is a road loss to a CFP participant whose only loss was by three points at top-ranked Oregon, the Cougars’ resume becomes far more palatable to the committee — especially if Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12.

3. The Cougars need Notre Dame to lose somewhere, anywhere, down the stretch.

In this regard, they are not alone. As an Independent, the Irish (6-1) are only eligible for the CFP through the at-large pool. If they finish 11-1, which is highly plausible given their modest upcoming schedule, the Irish will gobble an at-large spot that would otherwise go to the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten or SEC.

Or Washington State.

4. As grotesque as the reality might be to their fans, the Cougars need Washington (4-3) to finish well in the Big Ten. A top-half placement for the Huskies would add shine to WSU’s victory in the Apple Cup.

The best result possible, of course, would be a UW victory over Oregon in the regular-season finale.

All in all, we give the Cougars a 5 percent chance to reach the CFP.

Which, again, is better than a zero percent chance.

Jon Wilner

It's pretty cool that the "so you're saying there's a chance" still applies to us, the CFP is just not going to happen. If UW didn't suck and we had them late in the season and could still beat them the way that we did....it might have helped our chances, but the truth is that we play a lot of terrible teams late in the season. The only way that we have a slim shot is if every game is a 4 TD blowout win.

I do like our chances to get to #21 this week. #24 Navy, #20 Illinois, #21 Missouri, #25 Vandy and #22 SMU all face challenging opponents.

Next week, #19 Pitt faces SMU and a win by the Mustangs gets us to #20 but barring major upsets, that's our only shot that week.

Ole #18 Ole Miss plays #2 Georgia and #15 Bama plays #8 LSU in a couple weeks so there's a remote chance we could get up to #18.

The following week, Army plays Notre Dame. An Irish win helps us more than an Army win does. #16 Kansas State and #11 BYU are the two teams with the toughest games. Maybe that gets us to #15. Maybe Utah upsets Iowa State to get us to #14.

Going on to Week 14, maybe the Beavers knock off #17 Boise State (who will be higher by then) and #14 Texas A&M has to play Texas. KSU plays Iowa State, so that will be another chance to gain the extra spot I identified the week before. If everything falls our way, we get to #12. With that, it's the end of the season and we are one spot outside of where we need to be to get into the CFP because the highest ranked G5 school still gets a spot. If USC knocks off Notre Dame, that might be the final piece that gets us in.

As decent as our early schedule was, it's going to be hard to jump in the polls over teams ahead of us with the schedule we have left. As mentioned in the article, Texas Tech winning the Big 12 would be a big deal for us, but the danger is that winning out means that they have a chance at jumping us in the polls....and losing to a bad Baylor team doesn't bode well for the Red Raiders.

We'll see how it plays out, but I'd love to play in the Alamo Bowl and finish #10 in the country as much as I'd like to play in the CFP.

 

[UberCougars]

SDSU or bust

 

[Coug90]

That 13% doesn’t take into account human bias. It does take into account that we’re entering upset season and every week
There’s going to be some top teams that suffer inexplicable losses. A few weeks ago 5 out of the top 11 teams lost, most in big upsets. Keep winning and there’s a chance. I’d say considering the typical course of a college football season, we should be in the 10-12 range if we are 11-1 at that point, so we would be right on the fringe, which is probably where we should be if we had an 11-1 record with this schedule.

 

[95coug]

The only game that matters now is SDSU. If we win that one, the only game that matters is Utah State. And so on.

There's no reason to waste time looking at the CFP at this point, being 6-1 doesn't matter. Have to get to 11-1 before it's even a vague possibility.

 

[Cougini5591]

Guys... I love our Cougs just as much / more so than anyone, but...

1) We have needed miracles to beat scrub teams

2) We had a mouthful of ass munch against Boise State

3) We MIGHT have 2 nfl players on the squad

4) We play Big Sky teams from here on out.

We don't deserve the playoffs.

Are we a Top 25 team? Probably/Maybe.

This is flat out stupid if we get in.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

That 13% doesn’t take into account human bias. It does take into account that we’re entering upset season and every week
There’s going to be some top teams that suffer inexplicable losses. A few weeks ago 5 out of the top 11 teams lost, most in big upsets. Keep winning and there’s a chance. I’d say considering the typical course of a college football season, we should be in the 10-12 range if we are 11-1 at that point, so we would be right on the fringe, which is probably where we should be if we had an 11-1 record with this schedule.

There will be other upsets. Unfortunately for WSU, one loss by teams that are currently 15 spots ahead of us doesn't mean anything. Even though I wrote out the scenarios above....I agree with the notion that our team needs to focus on one week at a time.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Guys... I love our Cougs just as much / more so than anyone, but...

1) We have needed miracles to beat scrub teams

2) We had a mouthful of ass munch against Boise State

3) We MIGHT have 2 nfl players on the squad

4) We play Big Sky teams from here on out.

We don't deserve the playoffs.

Are we a Top 25 team? Probably/Maybe.

This is flat out stupid if we get in.

I agree 100% that we are unlikely to enjoy the CFP experience on the field. I do feel that we have a legit Top 25 team though. We'll see how Texas Tech, UW, and FSU finish out their seasons, but those were good wins for us. And we'll see how BSU does. I'll never root for the Broncos on anything...but that was a damned good team that we lost to.

I will say that I feel bad for San Jose State. Their next four games are going to be tough and our close win against them is going to look worse as time goes on. It's not that they are bad... but @ Fresno St, @ Oregon St, vs BSU and vs UNLV is a rough stretch.

Don't be too down on the close win against Fresno State. If things play true to form, they will be 20-4 at home in the past four seasons with losses to New Mexico, Boise State, WSU and Oregon State. The New Mexico loss is the only bad one of the bunch. A close win in that pit of a stadium is a good win.

 

[Coug90]

There will be other upsets. Unfortunately for WSU, one loss by teams that are currently 15 spots ahead of us doesn't mean anything. Even though I wrote out the scenarios above....I agree with the notion that our team needs to focus on one week at a time.

If anyone on the team is looking at message boards we aren’t winning out. Every player knows it’s 1-0 every week.

 

[Coug90]

Guys... I love our Cougs just as much / more so than anyone, but...

1) We have needed miracles to beat scrub teams

2) We had a mouthful of ass munch against Boise State

3) We MIGHT have 2 nfl players on the squad

4) We play Big Sky teams from here on out.

We don't deserve the playoffs.

Are we a Top 25 team? Probably/Maybe.

This is flat out stupid if we get in.

We aren’t making any noise but I don’t see how it’s stupid to look out and say “what if”. Most 16 seeds have no chance in the CBB tourney either but it’s pretty damn exciting to get in the dance and know that the entire sporting world will be watching you perform. The new playoff format allows for more of this…unfortunately it’s the only good thing to happen in College Football in the last few years.

 

[95coug]

We aren’t making any noise but I don’t see how it’s stupid to look out and say “what if”. Most 16 seeds have no chance in the CBB tourney either but it’s pretty damn exciting to get in the dance and know that the entire sporting world will be watching you perform. The new playoff format allows for more of this…unfortunately it’s the only good thing to happen in College Football in the last few years.

I'd argue that the playoff - as executed - will not be good for CFP. It was always going to narrow the postseason to a fairly small number of programs that will consistently appear, with only a few interlopers from season to season. When combined with NIL, the portal, and the general deregulation of rosters (including the new 105 scholarship limit), it's a complete disaster.

I'm guessing that the networks will end up being sorry they pushed things this way in a few years. This year, outside of the CFP, there are 35 bowl games. This is down from a maximum of 40 after the 2015 and 2016 seasons. The CFP has 11 games, and those 11 devalue the other 35. The number of non-CFP bowls is going to drop every year going forward, because nobody cares about them.

The non-CFP games that happen before Christmas are going to evaporate. Very few people ever cared/watched, and now nobody will outside of the teams that are playing. Interest and value of those games is going to disappear. Even the non-CFP games between Dec 25-31 are going to have less value. I'm not convinced that the viewership lost from the 25-30 games that disappear will be offset by the CFP games. And if the viewers aren't there, the media revenue won't be either.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Guys... I love our Cougs just as much / more so than anyone, but...

1) We have needed miracles to beat scrub teams

2) We had a mouthful of ass munch against Boise State

3) We MIGHT have 2 nfl players on the squad

4) We play Big Sky teams from here on out.

We don't deserve the playoffs.

Are we a Top 25 team? Probably/Maybe.

This is flat out stupid if we get in.

Church of the Right Way won’t like this honesty. They will sing their hymn of lies….

 

[Coug90]

I'd argue that the playoff - as executed - will not be good for CFP. It was always going to narrow the postseason to a fairly small number of programs that will consistently appear, with only a few interlopers from season to season. When combined with NIL, the portal, and the general deregulation of rosters (including the new 105 scholarship limit), it's a complete disaster.

I'm guessing that the networks will end up being sorry they pushed things this way in a few years. This year, outside of the CFP, there are 35 bowl games. This is down from a maximum of 40 after the 2015 and 2016 seasons. The CFP has 11 games, and those 11 devalue the other 35. The number of non-CFP bowls is going to drop every year going forward, because nobody cares about them.

The non-CFP games that happen before Christmas are going to evaporate. Very few people ever cared/watched, and now nobody will outside of the teams that are playing. Interest and value of those games is going to disappear. Even the non-CFP games between Dec 25-31 are going to have less value. I'm not convinced that the viewership lost from the 25-30 games that disappear will be offset by the CFP games. And if the viewers aren't there, the media revenue won't be either.

Those bowl games have been dying a slow death anyways, don’t think the new format will make it any worse. We shall see.

 

[Coug90]

Church of the Right Way won’t like this honesty. They will sing their hymn of lies….

Only one more day till we get to hear how dumb our coaches are if we lose…or only win by 35.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Only one more day till we get to hear how dumb our coaches are if we lose…or only win by 35.

And if UNLV somehow wins over BSU it will be a torrent of how we should have beat them too.

And to the topic at hand, no way does WSU have any chance of making the CFP despite what clickbait Wilner spouts.

Mid-Top 25 and the Alamo or Holiday Bowl are worthy and profitable goals IMHO.

 

[UberCougars]

Guys... I love our Cougs just as much / more so than anyone, but...

1) We have needed miracles to beat scrub teams

2) We had a mouthful of ass munch against Boise State

3) We MIGHT have 2 nfl players on the squad

4) We play Big Sky teams from here on out.

We don't deserve the playoffs.

Are we a Top 25 team? Probably/Maybe.

This is flat out stupid if we get in.

Who cares? Honestly.

Winning is fun so, let’s keep doing it.

 

[95coug]

Those bowl games have been dying a slow death anyways, don’t think the new format will make it any worse. We shall see.

It’s the low level bowls before Christmas that have been folding, or have been a revolving door. The CFP stands a fair chance of killing even established games like the Holiday, Alamo, Independence, etc. They’re all meaningless now.

 

[Coug90]

It’s the low level bowls before Christmas that have been folding, or have been a revolving door. The CFP stands a fair chance of killing even established games like the Holiday, Alamo, Independence, etc. They’re all meaningless now.

I suppose but the fact that players have already been skipping those bowls for a couple years to focus on their pro futures has made them more or less meaningless anyways.

 

[CougInSpain]

I'd say if we win in dominate fashion going forward, then SoS won't be as much of a factor in terms of the human element. I know style points aren't part of the CFP equation but they do count when AP and Coach's poll look to rank teams. If we aren't throttling teams by 5+ Touchdowns a game from here on, even if we win them all, we will most likely be on the outside looking in.

 

[95coug]

I'd say if we win in dominate fashion going forward, then SoS won't be as much of a factor in terms of the human element. I know style points aren't part of the CFP equation but they do count when AP and Coach's poll look to rank teams. If we aren't throttling teams by 5+ Touchdowns a game from here on, even if we win them all, we will most likely be on the outside looking in.

Fixed it for you

 

[UberCougars]

Church of the Right Way won’t like this honesty. They will sing their hymn of lies….

You should call in sick tomorrow and watch the game instead.

Need a note?