What is your work situation?

[BiggsCoug]

Sadly, I have a sinking feeing more people will die in 90 days than in the Vietnam War. That’s American deaths, not worldwide.

Worldwide, once it hits impoverished countries, millions will die.

This could be worse than the Spanish Flu.

I expect to see enormous backlash against China.

 

[Observer11]

Well my work situation is extraordinarily good at unfortunate times like this.

I work managing assets working with our quants department for a private equity firm that specializes in flipping "distressed assets".

Basically we are Vulture Capitalists, and right now we are doing insanely well and unfortunately that is not a sign of things going well in the world.

Basically since this whole thing hit we've been evaluating and acquiring positions all over the place.

There's an Oil price war going on making Shale positions quite lucrative, there are massive opportunities for us in transportation/hospitality/logistics.

It's insane, we haven't seen anything like this since the 2008 crash.

Fortunately we can all work at home (and I do quite a bit as is), but I am incredibly worried about the U.S. economy right now, while my firm is set to rake in an incredible amount of cash real people are hurting and suffering and it hurts to watch. It's the small business owners and independent contractors, and everyday workers that I feel for.

These asshole executives we are dragging over the coals I could care less about. But the everyday individuals, the elderly, students just starting out trying to find their footing I am REALLY concerned about.

On a micro scale things really will take a while to get going again, but I'm afraid on a macro scale things will not be the same for a LONG time.

Right now we actually are looking to expand our position in the UK because all I am going to say is the S H I T is going to hit the fan there like NOBODY has ever seen before.

I could go in depth into why our ears and eyes have perked up in that area, but I to make is succinct, there are A LOT of fundamental problems in England from the way they handled the pandemic, to Brexit, to vital revenue sources collapsing and the result does not look good. In all seriousness we are probably going to see Scotland (and possibly Northern Ireland) bail from the UK because what is coming is a disaster.

TLDR: World is on fire and I make money turning charcoal into diamonds, but I am still sad the world is on fire because people don't deserve this.

I work on the opposite of the fence - as an advisor to emerging and troubled companies. But your points are salient.

Companies have sadly become obsessed with their quarterly earnings and share price. Many executive incentive plans are geared toward that and 'driving shareholder value' (whatever the F that means). I had one startup last year checking their stock price every single hour and blasting emails out....my advice to them was take the stock price app off their respective phones, focus on growing revenue and cash flow and check their stock price the week after filing of their quarterlies. They balked and kept trying to borrow and press release themselves out of debt - they are pretty close to taking the gas pipe last time I checked. Fortunately I got paid before I fired them.

Unfortunately, these douchebags forget about a really key concept - cash flow. Not every business is going to be Amazon who can run for decades without showing a profit - and can access massive capital markets to fund operations and growth. Most businesses actually have to take in more cash than they spend to survive. Otherwise, they'll borrow themselves into oblivion or enter into eventual toxic financing agreements. Financial re-engineering has proved to be math hocus pocus and I'm afraid there's going to be carnage in a number of companies who have failed to exercise strong financial discipline during the good times.

My hope is that as we emerge from this temporary depression (and I do believe we are in about a 3 week depression - unemployment numbers are going to reach historic levels simply as an administrative function while companies retrench and reload), corporate America takes a good long look at itself and how it has evolved. The multiples at which C-level people are compensated relative to the median average worker is, quite frankly, disgusting. In my world view, the C-level folks get paid LAST after their workers are able to provide for their families, have reasonable health benefits and a method to create financial security through generous retirement contributions - much like 60's type corporate culture. There used to be a concept of good corporate citizenship - which treated shareholders, customers, employees, executives and community in a balanced manner. That hasn't existed for the last 25 years at least. That concept needs to come back in vogue and fast.

Generally agree on the shiT*torm in UK. In theory, I am in favor of Brexit as the EU was exherting too much influence on the UK in a number of areas. Was actually in Scotland and Northern Ireland during the countdown in October and it was all the talk, all the time. The Scots are notoriously independent and voted strongly to stay in the EU - but that could very well be they hate the British more than they like the EU. Regardless, once this COVID stuff settles down, the Scottish independent movement is going to ramp up big time. Sadly, Northern Ireland is going to take it in the shorts the most - they've had relative peace over the past decade and Brexit has re-opened a lot of old wounds. The people we spoke with are literally praying cooler heads prevail as they've seen massive revitalization of their economy due to tourism (Game of Thrones/Titanic) and a recognition that N. Ireland is a really special place with fantastic people willing to work hard. Belfast is booming.

Good luck vulturing. I've given you grief in the past but there are some idiots out there who need to bear the consequences of their behaviors. Hopefully, the normal Joe Worker can be placed in a better spot because Founder Guy/greedy CEO is kicked to the curb.

 

[Suudy]

Our school did the same. Lessons can't go 100% online, because some kids might not have computers (or even homes) so it's not fair to them. So instead teachers are putting together weekly homework packets, and parents have to come to the school every monday to pick them up. Not that that causes "gatherings" or anything like that.

Our schools are doing weekly pickup/dropoff of work packets every Monday. We pickup a week's worth of work, have them work on it all week, and turn it in the following Monday, picking up a new packet. The schools are sending the school computers and iPads home with the students to be able to participate at home, though this is optional.

It works ok for the older kids. Our youngest, though, lacks the self-discipline to stay on task. I don't know how his teacher does it with 25 other bouncy, loud, children.

 

[95coug]

The US is a time bomb. The country is too big and the population too unwieldy to handle something l like this now that community transmission is on the loose. WA/CA/NY might get their situation back down to manageable only to have a place like FL or LA or ID without testing or controls blow up and reinfect places that had calmed down. There will be rolling flare-ups all over, and only a massive ramp up in temporary health infrastructure will slow it down. I don't think it's going to be 1918, but it's going to be bad. The time to shut down hard was a month ago if you want to reopen quickly. That's passed now. This is going to be on ongoing problem for 18 months or so. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am. Imagine Italy in a country the size of a continent that doesn't want to shut down fully. The only thing saving Australia from a similar fate is more aggressive early testing and being on the ass end of the world surrounded by water

I don't think we're quite up to the point of no return, but it's close. If we could get the testing massively ramped up, with hard lockdowns on anyone who's positive or waiting for results, we could get a handle on it. Only way to do that is to use the WHO's test kits (which we should have done in the first place) instead of waiting for our own to get figured out.
But, we're not going to do that. We're still a couple weeks away from widespread testing, and by the time we have it...it'll be too late.

From an epidemiological standpoint, serious illness is skewing younger here than it has in other countries. Fatalities are still staying largely in the elderly, but for whatever reason we're seeing more 20-30-40 year olds that are seriously sick...and maybe it's because of our epidemic obesity & diabetes. And very simple statistics say that if more young people are sick, more young people will die. This will hit our primary workforce, and it's going to explode into our homeless population. Cities - especially the large ones - are going to be bad places to be for the next few months.

 

[froropmkr72]

Our schools are doing weekly pickup/dropoff of work packets every Monday. We pickup a week's worth of work, have them work on it all week, and turn it in the following Monday, picking up a new packet. The schools are sending the school computers and iPads home with the students to be able to participate at home, though this is optional.

It works ok for the older kids. Our youngest, though, lacks the self-discipline to stay on task. I don't know how his teacher does it with 25 other bouncy, loud, children.

Really good to hear Suudy.

 

[froropmkr72]

I don't think we're quite up to the point of no return, but it's close. If we could get the testing massively ramped up, with hard lockdowns on anyone who's positive or waiting for results, we could get a handle on it. Only way to do that is to use the WHO's test kits (which we should have done in the first place) instead of waiting for our own to get figured out.
But, we're not going to do that. We're still a couple weeks away from widespread testing, and by the time we have it...it'll be too late.

From an epidemiological standpoint, serious illness is skewing younger here than it has in other countries. Fatalities are still staying largely in the elderly, but for whatever reason we're seeing more 20-30-40 year olds that are seriously sick...and maybe it's because of our epidemic obesity & diabetes. And very simple statistics say that if more young people are sick, more young people will die. This will hit our primary workforce, and it's going to explode into our homeless population. Cities - especially the large ones - are going to be bad places to be for the next few months.

95, without verifying myself...did how many other countries used WHO test kits (China, S. Korea...etc? )
Why weren't they producing every type of test kit that proved reliable up until Feb. 14th or so?

 

[Stretch 74]

Sadly, I have a sinking feeing more people will die in 90 days than in the Vietnam War. That’s American deaths, not worldwide.

Worldwide, once it hits impoverished countries, millions will die.

This could be worse than the Spanish Flu.

I expect to see enormous backlash against China.

************

I think that any projections at this time of how many people will die from the CV is just a wild guess, but I sure hope you are overestimating the US totals. Worldwide, millions is likely to be correct by the time this is over. A buddy and I were talking yesterday and we think that India is going to be the spot that takes off next. Shitload of people crowded together there and some pretty nasty conditions.

I saw your other post about your change of direction WRT your income source. I was wondering how you are able to run the shop in E WA while living in TX. Just leave everything under the control of a foreman or supervisor? Lots of travel back and forth?

Any chance you can get a link posted on the livestock show website advertising your stuff? Maybe some folks will want to purchase souvenirs even though there was no show. Just a thought.

 

[chipdouglas]

driving lyft is a no go for now (I live in PHX) since the demand is nill and I'd rather leave the income to those who need it--i only do it to put dollars into my vacation account.

That's interesting. I took an Uber a week or two ago and my driver said it was business as usual, if not more busy - and he drove a fairly random midnight to 7am shift. But that was also before we were in full on lockdown mode; might be different now.

I think the American mood shift from BFD to full on panic mode has been gradual, as 2-3 weeks ago there were still plenty of gyms open etc.

 

[chipdouglas]

Sadly, I have a sinking feeing more people will die in 90 days than in the Vietnam War. That’s American deaths, not worldwide.

Worldwide, once it hits impoverished countries, millions will die.

This could be worse than the Spanish Flu.

I expect to see enormous backlash against China.

We are getting way OT here, but something has to give. China has brought the world SARS, H1N1, H5N1, and now CoViD-19. It is also now simultaneously dealing with a post-C19 outbreak of H5N1 right now as we all try to fight this coronavirus. All in the last 20 years. It was less of an issue before millions of people flew in and out of China every year, as they do now. They will be even more mobile/spread-able 5 years from now. There is truly zero reason to be optimistic about the next 20 years in this area.

Can we fly in NYC food inspectors for God's sake, or just put the kibosh on eating bats, dogs, monkeys and birds?

 

[chipdouglas]

From an epidemiological standpoint, serious illness is skewing younger here than it has in other countries. Fatalities are still staying largely in the elderly, but for whatever reason we're seeing more 20-30-40 year olds that are seriously sick...and maybe it's because of our epidemic obesity & diabetes.

This overlaps possibly only slightly, but there has been a big counternarrative push saying that "young people can get it too!" as a reaction to early reports suggesting death is a coin toss if you're old. Certainly young people can get it, but there is little evidence to change the fact that it's merely the flu for young people, but a very serious bout for the old.

I just saw a sensational headline blaring "45% of NYC cases are under age 45!" This is a sexy headline until you dig in and see that nearly 2 in 3 New Yorkers are under age 45 (not to mention more physically mobile), so they are actually WAY underrepresented in both cases and deaths.

92% of deaths have been 60+, and 98% are 40+. The remaining 2% are almost always preexisting conditions. Current death toll is about 21,000, of which fewer than 500 were <40.

 

[HHusky]

I've been working from home for almost four years now, so no change there. But I represent small business owners generally and franchise owners in particular. My wife and I are going to be fine, but I'm not sure how some of my clients are going to be able to carry on.

 

[HHusky]

Sadly, I have a sinking feeing more people will die in 90 days than in the Vietnam War. That’s American deaths, not worldwide.

Just messing with the data and looking at day over day rates of change, I think we will probably well exceed our Vietnam War deaths.

 

[AncientCoug]

92% of deaths have been 60+, and 98% are 40+. The remaining 2% are almost always preexisting conditions. Current death toll is about 21,000, of which fewer than 500 were <40.

On the other hand, a fairly high percentage of the nation’s nurses and doctors are 60+. Maybe they should just refuse to care for you young pups when you come down with it.

 

[HHusky]

This overlaps possibly only slightly, but there has been a big counternarrative push saying that "young people can get it too!" as a reaction to early reports suggesting death is a coin toss if you're old. Certainly young people can get it, but there is little evidence to change the fact that it's merely the flu for young people, but a very serious bout for the old.

I just saw a sensational headline blaring "45% of NYC cases are under age 45!" This is a sexy headline until you dig in and see that nearly 2 in 3 New Yorkers are under age 45 (not to mention more physically mobile), so they are actually WAY underrepresented in both cases and deaths.

92% of deaths have been 60+, and 98% are 40+. The remaining 2% are almost always preexisting conditions. Current death toll is about 21,000, of which fewer than 500 were <40.

Young people who get it and don't die from it are nonetheless being hospitalized in large numbers, taxing finite resources.

 

[BiggsCoug]

************

I think that any projections at this time of how many people will die from the CV is just a wild guess, but I sure hope you are overestimating the US totals. Worldwide, millions is likely to be correct by the time this is over. A buddy and I were talking yesterday and we think that India is going to be the spot that takes off next. Shitload of people crowded together there and some pretty nasty conditions.

I saw your other post about your change of direction WRT your income source. I was wondering how you are able to run the shop in E WA while living in TX. Just leave everything under the control of a foreman or supervisor? Lots of travel back and forth?

Any chance you can get a link posted on the livestock show website advertising your stuff? Maybe some folks will want to purchase souvenirs even though there was no show. Just a thought.

I hope that it doesn't hit our country that hard too. But I believe what my eyes see. The numbers just keep going up faster and faster every day.

In regards to my metal work, I cut a huge pile of product, then drive down. Paying upwards of $2000 per month for work space didn't seem like the thing to do.

The plan is to leave the product alone for a bit. When trade shows start back up I am loaded for a bear hunt. Once the shelter in place order for Austin is lifted there may be some opportunity with online sales. We will see.

 

[BiggsCoug]

We are getting way OT here, but something has to give. China has brought the world SARS, H1N1, H5N1, and now CoViD-19. It is also now simultaneously dealing with a post-C19 outbreak of H5N1 right now as we all try to fight this coronavirus. All in the last 20 years. It was less of an issue before millions of people flew in and out of China every year, as they do now. They will be even more mobile/spread-able 5 years from now. There is truly zero reason to be optimistic about the next 20 years in this area.

Can we fly in NYC food inspectors for God's sake, or just put the kibosh on eating bats, dogs, monkeys and birds?

There are inspectors or were inspectors all over Iran and their nuclear program. That's what needs to happen to China's markets. They can't be trusted.

It's 2020, not 1020. It's time to stop eating bats.

 

[dgibbons]

Just messing with the data and looking at day over day rates of change, I think we will probably well exceed our Vietnam War deaths.

58,000 is the equivalent of a bad, but not unusual flu season.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Just messing with the data and looking at day over day rates of change, I think we will probably well exceed our Vietnam War deaths.

More than 60,000 deaths in such a short timeline... there will be expected repercussions for China.

It is unacceptable for this to happen. I am fearful for the third world. If America can't get the medical equipment needed, it is just not gonna happen for the third world countries.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

There are inspectors or were inspectors all over Iran and their nuclear program. That's what needs to happen to China's markets. They can't be trusted.

It's 2020, not 1020. It's time to stop eating bats.

You're going to deny then the opportunity to gain echolocation? How dare you!

 

[HHusky]

58,000 is the equivalent of a bad, but not unusual flu season.

True, but this isn't replacing the flu--it's in addition to the flu.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

58,000 is the equivalent of a bad, but not unusual flu season.

The problem with these discussions is that as of right now, the mortality rate from COVID-19 is far higher than normal influenza and if the infection rates increase to the point we've seen with the flu....it's gonna be a big deal. The normal mortality rate for the flu is around 0.1%. COVID-19 is currently killing over 1% of the people that catch it. So.....a flu outbreak that kills 16,000 in a normal year could kill 160,000 to 200,000 people....and that's assuming that it doesn't spread to the wider population due to the lack of a vaccine.

An estimate of 58,000 could very well be optimistic.

Of course, the bigger picture is that the destruction that happening to our economy will eventually start killing people too. Loss if income is going to put a lot of people in bad situations and some of them will not be able to afford healthcare that they might otherwise get. At some point, we have to worry about suicides becoming an issue.

I think we need to accept that some financial and economic hardship is an appropriate tradeoff to save lives....but it's got to be hard for the people doing the sacrificing.

 

[dgibbons]

We are getting way OT here, but something has to give. China has brought the world SARS, H1N1, H5N1, and now CoViD-19. It is also now simultaneously dealing with a post-C19 outbreak of H5N1 right now as we all try to fight this coronavirus. All in the last 20 years. It was less of an issue before millions of people flew in and out of China every year, as they do now. They will be even more mobile/spread-able 5 years from now. There is truly zero reason to be optimistic about the next 20 years in this area.

Can we fly in NYC food inspectors for God's sake, or just put the kibosh on eating bats, dogs, monkeys and birds?

Not that long ago (under Mao) millions of Chinese, especially in rural China were starving to death every year. This was a result of the government controls over agriculture, corruption, central planning that was totally messed up, etc. As a result, subsistence farming was allowed, and raising or capturing bats, cats, pangolins, dogs, monkeys, etc. took off. Now some, like pangolins are considered delicacies or to have medicinal properties. I suppose since it's a totalitarian regime, China could do it. But there will be serious backlash, and maybe even a return to starvation.

We do some weird stuff in this country too- Rocky Mountain oysters, crawfish, cat fish, gator and all kinds of wild game. The wet markets are an obvious difference.

 

[dgibbons]

The problem with these discussions is that as of right now, the mortality rate from COVID-19 is far higher than normal influenza and if the infection rates increase to the point we've seen with the flu....it's gonna be a big deal. The normal mortality rate for the flu is around 0.1%. COVID-19 is currently killing over 1% of the people that catch it. So.....a flu outbreak that kills 16,000 in a normal year could kill 160,000 to 200,000 people....and that's assuming that it doesn't spread to the wider population due to the lack of a vaccine.

An estimate of 58,000 could very well be optimistic.

Of course, the bigger picture is that the destruction that happening to our economy will eventually start killing people too. Loss if income is going to put a lot of people in bad situations and some of them will not be able to afford healthcare that they might otherwise get. At some point, we have to worry about suicides becoming an issue.

I think we need to accept that some financial and economic hardship is an appropriate tradeoff to save lives....but it's got to be hard for the people doing the sacrificing.

58,220 is the number of Americans killed in the Vietnam War. That was Biggs' number. In the 2017-18 season the flu killed over 60,000. I had trouble finding anything that looked a like reliable list. Interestingly, it appears that CDC estimates the flu fatalities every year, rather than tabulating them.

 

[Stretch 74]

The problem with these discussions is that as of right now, the mortality rate from COVID-19 is far higher than normal influenza and if the infection rates increase to the point we've seen with the flu....it's gonna be a big deal. The normal mortality rate for the flu is around 0.1%. COVID-19 is currently killing over 1% of the people that catch it. So.....a flu outbreak that kills 16,000 in a normal year could kill 160,000 to 200,000 people....and that's assuming that it doesn't spread to the wider population due to the lack of a vaccine.

An estimate of 58,000 could very well be optimistic.

Of course, the bigger picture is that the destruction that happening to our economy will eventually start killing people too. Loss if income is going to put a lot of people in bad situations and some of them will not be able to afford healthcare that they might otherwise get. At some point, we have to worry about suicides becoming an issue.

I think we need to accept that some financial and economic hardship is an appropriate tradeoff to save lives....but it's got to be hard for the people doing the sacrificing.

************

Not trying to minimize it, but since they symptoms are so slight in some people, and many don't get tested at all and thereby not included in the stats, I think that the reality may well be down around .5%. Still higher than flu, but not quite as scary.

Of course, each and every death from CV is a tragedy for the victims friends and family.

 

[Stretch 74]

I hope that it doesn't hit our country that hard too. But I believe what my eyes see. The numbers just keep going up faster and faster every day.

In regards to my metal work, I cut a huge pile of product, then drive down. Paying upwards of $2000 per month for work space didn't seem like the thing to do.

The plan is to leave the product alone for a bit. When trade shows start back up I am loaded for a bear hunt. Once the shelter in place order for Austin is lifted there may be some opportunity with online sales. We will see.

************

So you do all the cutting yourself? It's about time you did something productive! LOL

If you get a chance, send me a pic or two of what you do. Curious to see what you have.

BTW, good on ya, mate, for getting to spend some more quality time with your dad while he is still here. I got to do that with my dad before he died in 2018. It means a lot!

 

[HHusky]

************

Not trying to minimize it, but since they symptoms are so slight in some people, and many don't get tested at all and thereby not included in the stats, I think that the reality may well be down around .5%. Still higher than flu, but not quite as scary.

Of course, each and every death from CV is a tragedy for the victims friends and family.

This is proving to be more contagious than the flu. But I agree that we can't really determine a mortality rate yet.

My back of the envelope calculation is 100K US deaths by the end of the year. Even that was based on some optimistic assumptions which may or may not prove to be true.

 

[kougkurt]

The problem with these discussions is that as of right now, the mortality rate from COVID-19 is far higher than normal influenza and if the infection rates increase to the point we've seen with the flu....it's gonna be a big deal. The normal mortality rate for the flu is around 0.1%. COVID-19 is currently killing over 1% of the people that catch it. So.....a flu outbreak that kills 16,000 in a normal year could kill 160,000 to 200,000 people....and that's assuming that it doesn't spread to the wider population due to the lack of a vaccine.

An estimate of 58,000 could very well be optimistic.

Of course, the bigger picture is that the destruction that happening to our economy will eventually start killing people too. Loss if income is going to put a lot of people in bad situations and some of them will not be able to afford healthcare that they might otherwise get. At some point, we have to worry about suicides becoming an issue.

I think we need to accept that some financial and economic hardship is an appropriate tradeoff to save lives....but it's got to be hard for the people doing the sacrificing.

Unless your part of the 0.1% then it’s 100%

 

[kougkurt]

I just don’t see Starbucks reopening 80% of their stores in China if they thought it wasn’t somewhat under control.

 

[95coug]

The problem with these discussions is that as of right now, the mortality rate from COVID-19 is far higher than normal influenza and if the infection rates increase to the point we've seen with the flu....it's gonna be a big deal. The normal mortality rate for the flu is around 0.1%. COVID-19 is currently killing over 1% of the people that catch it. So.....a flu outbreak that kills 16,000 in a normal year could kill 160,000 to 200,000 people....and that's assuming that it doesn't spread to the wider population due to the lack of a vaccine.

An estimate of 58,000 could very well be optimistic.

Of course, the bigger picture is that the destruction that happening to our economy will eventually start killing people too. Loss if income is going to put a lot of people in bad situations and some of them will not be able to afford healthcare that they might otherwise get. At some point, we have to worry about suicides becoming an issue.

I think we need to accept that some financial and economic hardship is an appropriate tradeoff to save lives....but it's got to be hard for the people doing the sacrificing.

It's NOT killing 1% of the people who catch it. It's killing 1% of the people who were sick enough to go to the doctor, get tested and confirmed it was COVID.

The 0.1% fatality rate for flu is an estimate. It's based on an estimated number of total flu infections, and is very soft. There's no testing behind it. The COVID-19 fatality rate being reported is based on positive tests, not on estimated total cases...so it's not a fair and direct comparison.

To illustrate more clearly... CDC estimates a high end estimate of 54 million flu cases in the US this year, 25 million medical visits, 710,000 hospitalizations, and 59,000 deaths. So, if you figure 59,000 deaths divided by an estimate of 54 million cases, that's a mortality rate of 0.1%. That's the number being used, but it's a soft estimate. If you use the number of medical visits instead, mortality rises to 0.236%. And if you use hospitalizations, it rises to a whopping 8.3%.

COVID-19 doesn't have an estimated number of cases or hospitalizations. There are about 68,450 confirmed cases and 1,027 deaths. Most sources say that 80+% of people infected have mild symptoms, so if 68,450 is only 20% of total infections, we're talking somewhere near 350,000 infections. 1,027 deaths in 350,000 infections gives a mortality of 0.29%. Still higher than the flu, but not as alarmingly high.

Bottom line is that the comparison is faulty. For the flu, the lowest possible estimate - deaths per estimated total flu cases (whether the patient went to a doctor or not) is being compared to the deaths per lab confirmed case for COVID. It's not apples to apples, it's more like apples to wingnuts.

 

[dgibbons]

In other COVID-19 news, it looks like Michigan will overtake Washington in total cases today. And Illinois and Massachusetts will tomorrow, with Florida and Louisiana to overcome Washington by Saturday. The sticky point is that Washington had some trouble reporting data yesterday, so there could be a spike for today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[HHusky]

In other COVID-19 news, it looks like Michigan will overtake Washington in total cases today. And Illinois and Massachusetts will tomorrow, with Florida and Louisiana to overcome Washington by Saturday. The sticky point is that Washington had some trouble reporting data yesterday, so there could be a spike for today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

And the US lapped the field today in terms of new cases.

 

[chipdouglas]

On the other hand, a fairly high percentage of the nation’s nurses and doctors are 60+. Maybe they should just refuse to care for you young pups when you come down with it.

Young people who get it and don't die from it are nonetheless being hospitalized in large numbers, taxing finite resources.

Both quotes above seem to have misinterpreted.

The initial story was "the gravest effects are concentrated in the elderly" which spurred an even more popular backlash/counter-narrative around how it's also nearly as dangerous/lethal to young people. The problem is, the statistics don't back that up, even if some young people are determined to prove that wrong with their behavior.

 

[dgibbons]

And the US lapped the field today in terms of new cases.

No surprise there. The outbreak in New York may surpass China (or at least what China has reported).

 

[dgibbons]

Both quotes above seem to have misinterpreted.

The initial story was "the gravest effects are concentrated in the elderly" which spurred an even more popular backlash/counter-narrative around how it's also nearly as dangerous/lethal to young people. The problem is, the statistics don't back that up, even if some young people are determined to prove that wrong with their behavior.

So far, zero deaths in Washington for people 39 and younger, and that's with 25 percent of the cases in people 0-39.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/emergencies/coronavirus

 

[BiggsCoug]

************

So you do all the cutting yourself? It's about time you did something productive! LOL

If you get a chance, send me a pic or two of what you do. Curious to see what you have.

BTW, good on ya, mate, for getting to spend some more quality time with your dad while he is still here. I got to do that with my dad before he died in 2018. It means a lot!

I cut and clean everything. It is the most boring job I have ever had. I literally stand there for hours watching the table run and making sure it doesn't blow up. Text me and I'll send you some pics of my booth and product.

My dad is 85 going on 75. I wouldn't be surprised if he lived well into his 90's.

 

[random soul]

We are getting way OT here, but something has to give. China has brought the world SARS, H1N1, H5N1, and now CoViD-19. It is also now simultaneously dealing with a post-C19 outbreak of H5N1 right now as we all try to fight this coronavirus. All in the last 20 years. It was less of an issue before millions of people flew in and out of China every year, as they do now. They will be even more mobile/spread-able 5 years from now. There is truly zero reason to be optimistic about the next 20 years in this area.

Can we fly in NYC food inspectors for God's sake, or just put the kibosh on eating bats, dogs, monkeys and birds?

That wet markets continued to operate after SARS is criminal, this just confirms it

 

[Flatlandcoug]

It's NOT killing 1% of the people who catch it. It's killing 1% of the people who were sick enough to go to the doctor, get tested and confirmed it was COVID.

The 0.1% fatality rate for flu is an estimate. It's based on an estimated number of total flu infections, and is very soft. There's no testing behind it. The COVID-19 fatality rate being reported is based on positive tests, not on estimated total cases...so it's not a fair and direct comparison.

To illustrate more clearly... CDC estimates a high end estimate of 54 million flu cases in the US this year, 25 million medical visits, 710,000 hospitalizations, and 59,000 deaths. So, if you figure 59,000 deaths divided by an estimate of 54 million cases, that's a mortality rate of 0.1%. That's the number being used, but it's a soft estimate. If you use the number of medical visits instead, mortality rises to 0.236%. And if you use hospitalizations, it rises to a whopping 8.3%.

COVID-19 doesn't have an estimated number of cases or hospitalizations. There are about 68,450 confirmed cases and 1,027 deaths. Most sources say that 80+% of people infected have mild symptoms, so if 68,450 is only 20% of total infections, we're talking somewhere near 350,000 infections. 1,027 deaths in 350,000 infections gives a mortality of 0.29%. Still higher than the flu, but not as alarmingly high.

Bottom line is that the comparison is faulty. For the flu, the lowest possible estimate - deaths per estimated total flu cases (whether the patient went to a doctor or not) is being compared to the deaths per lab confirmed case for COVID. It's not apples to apples, it's more like apples to wingnuts.

All true.....but it's also true the 90% of the people that have had symptoms.......didn't have the virus. So we really don't know anything at this point other than that people diagnosed with it die at a much higher rate than most other viruses.

 

[HHusky]

No surprise there. The outbreak in New York may surpass China (or at least what China has reported).

I assume we're all taking Chinese reports with a grain of salt.

 

[Stretch 74]

I cut and clean everything. It is the most boring job I have ever had. I literally stand there for hours watching the table run and making sure it doesn't blow up. Text me and I'll send you some pics of my booth and product.

My dad is 85 going on 75. I wouldn't be surprised if he lived well into his 90's.

******
Done. Thanks for quick response. Looks like CNC work, am I correct? Better get yourself a comfy chair to sit in while the machine does its thing.

My dad lived to be 87, prostate cancer did him in. About 8 or 9 months before he died, my brother was working on the roof of one of his rentals. Told dad to stay on the ground, but he got tired of that and Bro turned around after a while and found him up on the roof. He was getting ready to throw stuff off or hand tools as necessary. He was working on stuff until right near the end. Miss him a lot.

I'll tell you all, those folks that came through the Great Depression as kids were tough hombres!

EDIT- Sorry, forgot to mention that the products look good. Have seen similar things from vendors at a couple of the car shows I go to.

 

[AncientCoug]

Both quotes above seem to have misinterpreted.

The initial story was "the gravest effects are concentrated in the elderly" which spurred an even more popular backlash/counter-narrative around how it's also nearly as dangerous/lethal to young people. The problem is, the statistics don't back that up, even if some young people are determined to prove that wrong with their behavior.

Apologies if I misinterpreted but it seemed your point would only be relevant in furtherance of the argument that young people should not worry about it and go on about their business. If that’s not where you were going, I was off base.