China holds over $1 trillion in US debt (probably considerably more with the stimulus passing). You're suggesting a depression and likely a war.
What is your work situation?
- Thread starter chipdouglas
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China holds over $1 trillion in US debt (probably considerably more with the stimulus passing). You're suggesting a depression and likely a war.
We may well be the world leader in reported cases but not cases in reality. China assuredly has many more than we do and Iran may too.
Yes, headlines sell. "If it bleeds, it leads" is an old journalistic adage and that may be the case here. They are intentionally playing up dire warnings in order to sell their media.
There is another factor to be considered. Journalists study journalism in college and less about the subject that they end up covering in print after graduation. I learned many years ago that scientific articles intended for the general public averaged about one error per paragraph. A bit of an exaggeration but not far from accuracy. The general public may be being fed nonsense unintentionally by the media undue to selfish or malevolent intent but simply because the writers simply do not know what they are talking about.
It is a good idea to approach reports about scientific matters with a healthy dose of skepticism unless those reports are emanating from a credible scientifically based source. Do you really think that politicians, TV talking heads, columnists and the like have a firm grasp of genetic mutations among microorganisms and the possible effects of those alterations? Me, neither. Won't stop them from spouting their "facts" and theories though. Pay attention to what the Dr. Fauci's of the world say and not to the Donald Trumps or Nancy Pelosi's.
Does that mean I should self identify as Mexican on my census form because I like tacos?
Not that I disagree with them being the origin of responsibility, but if you think the market has been a slaughter the past few weeks....
problem is globalization is difficult to unwind. Telling American companies to get out of China and stop doing business with them is easier said than done. As angry as we may be, I think a more measured and diplomatic response is going to be necessary.
Regardless of how pissed you want to be at China and yeah they deserve it, we had boots on the ground there that were removed just months before all of this started...for the very purpose of identifying, alerting, and execution of a plan. Germany is telling their citizens to get the hell out of our country because we are so far behind the curve. There’s plenty of blame to go around, and the response from our government was piss poor when we’re supposed to be leading the world with this stuff. I’d be on board If we actually had our shit together and went after China on behalf of the rest of the world, but you need to get your own house in order first. Considering how this was handled our adversaries are probably licking their chops at the idea of biological warfare.
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That sounds like a pretty good idea. Of course, in today's mixed up world you can self identify as a Martian and the rest of us are supposed to believe you and give you the high respect that all Martians deserve.
As for me, well I was born in Bellingham and have lived in the USA my entire life. So I guess I should identify as a Native American, right?
I are an engineer. I look at what I can see & measure, then hold it up against what makes sense and my experience tells me is probably happening. Then I plan for the worst likely case.
China's zero occurrence rate is obviously false. I completely believe that they got the infection rate down; if Italy had been willing to drag people out of apartments and put them in quarantine (or worse) as they tracked contacts to the infected people, then they would not be where they are today. But zero new infections means one of two things. Either they managed to break every single infection path and lock up or eliminate those involved; or they have a vaccine. There is no way that they are widely vaccinating people without the word getting out. And even with the draconian measures that China can/will take, I can't believe that every chain of contact has been broken. Hence, zero infections is not credible.
Our own pronouncements are a comedy circus. Fauci is the only believable one in the group crowded around the podium (frequently not maintaining 6' distance), and he has to gently contradict most of what his boss just said every time he (Fauci) starts to comment. Do you realize how silent the CDC has been? They were conducting weekly news conferences back at the very beginning of this situation. Since then, silence. I wonder who told them to shut up?
If you assume...using conservative assumptions...that only a smidge over half of our population will be exposed over the course of the pandemic (probably at least 1 year); and assume only a 10% severe symptom rate; and further assume that only 1/3 of those need to go on ventilators (regardless of whether a ventilator is available); and assume that only half of the ones who need to be on ventilators pass away....you are at 3 million dead. Flatten the curve enough to provide ventilators to all who need them, and cut peak cases enough that one nurse isn't trying to tend 15 ventilator patients, as in Italy and Spain (in other words, cut the peak case load down to where we have available med personnel to properly manage the case load) and you probably move the needle from half the ventilator cases dying to more like 1/3. Just do that much and instead of 3 million dead the number is closer to 2 million. A difference of 1 million lives more or less if we can extend the social & economic pain by stretching out the process longer. A delta of a million lives is a big number.
China's zero occurrence rate is obviously false. I completely believe that they got the infection rate down; if Italy had been willing to drag people out of apartments and put them in quarantine (or worse) as they tracked contacts to the infected people, then they would not be where they are today. But zero new infections means one of two things. Either they managed to break every single infection path and lock up or eliminate those involved; or they have a vaccine. There is no way that they are widely vaccinating people without the word getting out. And even with the draconian measures that China can/will take, I can't believe that every chain of contact has been broken. Hence, zero infections is not credible.
Our own pronouncements are a comedy circus. Fauci is the only believable one in the group crowded around the podium (frequently not maintaining 6' distance), and he has to gently contradict most of what his boss just said every time he (Fauci) starts to comment. Do you realize how silent the CDC has been? They were conducting weekly news conferences back at the very beginning of this situation. Since then, silence. I wonder who told them to shut up?
If you assume...using conservative assumptions...that only a smidge over half of our population will be exposed over the course of the pandemic (probably at least 1 year); and assume only a 10% severe symptom rate; and further assume that only 1/3 of those need to go on ventilators (regardless of whether a ventilator is available); and assume that only half of the ones who need to be on ventilators pass away....you are at 3 million dead. Flatten the curve enough to provide ventilators to all who need them, and cut peak cases enough that one nurse isn't trying to tend 15 ventilator patients, as in Italy and Spain (in other words, cut the peak case load down to where we have available med personnel to properly manage the case load) and you probably move the needle from half the ventilator cases dying to more like 1/3. Just do that much and instead of 3 million dead the number is closer to 2 million. A difference of 1 million lives more or less if we can extend the social & economic pain by stretching out the process longer. A delta of a million lives is a big number.
I slept at a holiday inn last night and there is no way 3 million, 2 million or a million Americans are going to die because of Corona, no F'n way. People are paying attention and it is making a difference. Go back to the spreadsheet and crunch more numbers : )
A month ago, many, if not most, Americans were making fun of coronavirus and saying that given that only a couple Americans had died, it was not as big of a deal as the regular flu that kills at least 16,000 every year.
Now that it’s killed 1700 Americans in a few weeks and the deaths are growing exponentially, “people” are saying that it’s probably going to kill 58,000 Americans but stop there.
You think that we are taking it seriously but I can tell you that in Kansas, we aren’t. Frankly, I’m part of the problem. I went out and bought a treadmill for my daughter yesterday and I haven’t had a single day that I stayed home all day. And I can tell you from the cars on the street that I’m not alone.
I don’t really think that millions of Americans are going to die but this virus is a far bigger deal than some think. We will be very fortunate if “only” 58,000 die. I believe that it will be in the hundreds of thousands at this point. The weird thing is that I think that it will prove relatively easy for people to shrug that off as not that big of a deal.
As I recall, there was one US Covid death on February 26th. Now, about one month later, we have more than 1700 deaths. That works out, I think, to a doubling of the death count on average every 3 days or so. If that trend continues we most certainly would exceed one million deaths sometime in May. You can figure that out for yourselves if you have a calculator. Punch in 2 to the 10th power (that’s 10 cycles of doubling or 30 days) and multiply that times the 1700 deaths we already have recorded. Or, you can write 1700 on a piece of paper double it and write that down, then double that and so on for 10 cycles.
The more positive view is that the data collected so far does not reflect the effects of social distancing and the hospitalization and death rate will likely drop off substantially. Many of those dying today probably contracted the disease more than a month ago. But that may just mean we will stretch the same number of deaths over a longer period of time. I’m not going to try to predict the actual infection and death count since there are just too many unknowns at this point. But from what I am seeing, this could be much worse than many are anticipating. The H1N1 outbreak in 2009 killed 12,000 or so over a year. We are approaching 2000 in one month with the count so far growing exponentially. Not good.
Not to mention they own $1.1 trillion of our debt. Kind of tough to play hardball with your bank lender even when he gets drunk at parties and grabs your wife's ass. That's the situation you get into when you can't control your spending.
Probably will be several hundred thousand when all said and done at least. The factors you mentioned will slow it to some degree, Abbott now has a quick test that they can produce several thousand a day (can we figure out how to distribute them??). But you also hand to consider the real possibility. of re-emerging hotspots in the fall.
I'd like to see some numbers on that. 325 million people live in this country, which strongly values independence, and you will NEVER get all of them to behave simultaneously. Nevertheless, in a culturally mixed place like CO, I am seeing 90%+ following rules well.
The real difference seems to be what people choose to focus on to describe the total effort. The 90% who are staying home and behaving themselves, or the 10% who are out shooting hoops with the boys?
Yeah sorry, don't agree. A study this month suggests that 95% (!) of cases were preventable if the Chinese government had played ball instead of delaying and covering up. If you're ignoring the 95% and instead focusing on the 5% we could have flexed domestically to "get our house in order," you are working small to big. 80/20 rule. Anything else is a political brochure.
Not sure it would have made any difference if China had been more open about it. Most of our population and the decision makers in our federal government were pretty unshakeable believers in the “it can’t happen here” theory and the “no worse than the flu” theory.
That being said, I’ve actually been pleasantly surprised at how many corporate CEOs and Governors did take it seriously and did react pretty early on. I always figured those guys were mostly showboating idiots just like present occupant of the Whitehouse. Apparently I was wrong about that.
Trump didn't close down China travel in January? Did we miss that?
How'd the ventilators Cuomo complained about not receiving end up in a NJ warehouse?
There are so many layers of finger pointing and politics here, it's not even funny. Anybody who believes what comes out of the mouths of any of them (both red and blue) without making multiple verifications is a fool. A goddamned fool.
And why isn't this making the mainstream media top spot in the US?
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...l-restrictions-eased-in-coronavirus-epicenter
Don't get played. Do your own legwork. And wash your hands.
How'd the ventilators Cuomo complained about not receiving end up in a NJ warehouse?
There are so many layers of finger pointing and politics here, it's not even funny. Anybody who believes what comes out of the mouths of any of them (both red and blue) without making multiple verifications is a fool. A goddamned fool.
And why isn't this making the mainstream media top spot in the US?
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...l-restrictions-eased-in-coronavirus-epicenter
Don't get played. Do your own legwork. And wash your hands.
Don’t do your legwork by relying on the Washington Examiner. Might as well rely on supermarket tabloids.
I think this will be a link to the South China Morning Post.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.sc...public-clash-border-reopens-between-hubei-and
IIRC, the travel ban didn’t pertain to U.S. citizens. There was no testing or isolation of those travelers, so it seems pretty porus.
Agree with the points on politicians. I was disappointed/ POed, but not surprised to see the pork from both sides adding time to the passage of the bill.
Going forward, I don’t see how a U.S. map with green, orange and red squares on it will stop the spread. Do we post border guards on county lines, or just color the map and call it good?
If test and trace would allow things to open up why not give it a try. Might take a lot of manpower, but so would county line border agents, if that’s the plan.
He's not wrong. The Washington Examiner is tabloid trash. Might as well post links to the National Enquirer.
2 things:
1. Abbott Labs has developed a 5 minute Covid 19 test. They will be able to make 50,000 a week. Shipments start next week.
2. A shipment of Covid 19 tests from China were intercepted yesterday... and they were "not reliable"... aka fake ones that will give a negative response regardless.
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I suppose you worship that other Washington DC paper? You know-the one that falsely pimped out Russian collusion and impeachment for three years? I don't see how it is any better than the Examiner.
Pick whoever you want then.
If you're determining what is going to support your thesis and bias from a limited population of sources, you're probably getting led right down the path 'they ' want.
I'll say it again:
There are so many layers of finger pointing and politics here, it's not even funny. Anybody who believes what comes out of the mouths of any of them (both red and blue) without making multiple verifications is a fool. A goddamned fool.
What's China going to do if we don't pay? We'd take a hit, but their economy gets completely wrecked. China needs us to pay out debt more than we need them to lend us money.
There is an old saying, if a someone owes you a thousand dollars you own him. If someone owns you a million dollars he owns you.
I'm not saying that I'm a fan of the Washington Post....but I'd trust a story written there long before I'd trust anything that's written in the Examiner. What I love is that everyone takes the report by Mueller as exoneration.....when it actually showed that there was evidence of coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia but they couldn't find enough proof to call it "collusion" and on the count of obstruction of justice, Mueller decided that he couldn't recommend filing charges against a sitting President.....that Trump would have to be impeached first to proceed.
Trump is a dirty m'fer who knows how to skate right down the line of illegal activity. Read the following summary of the Mueller Report if you want to see how freaking dirty Trump's campaign was.....but more likely, you'd rather just say it's "fake news". Plenty of meetings with the Russians and communications with at least one Russian spy, but no specific proof on collusion. Again, trust a crooked businessman from New York to know how to flirt with the edges of the law.
https://www.justsecurity.org/63838/guide-to-the-mueller-reports-findings-on-collusion/
The Washington Examiner is a propaganda rag and as I said in a previous thread, it's only potential use is as a substitute for toilet paper. Every time you read information provided by them.....brain cells die.
Just a guess but we probably couldn’t stop paying just the bonds held by China. US government debt instruments are traded all over the world so China could always sell their bonds on the open market. If we refused to pay all bonds we would tank the world economy for a generation.
Kinda pot calling the kettle black I’d say...what was our government doing for the first six weeks? Delaying, lying, and politicking. I get why people want to “leave politics out of this”, but behavior driven purely by politics is why we are in this so deep right now.
China is not without blame, but IMO we need to fix our own problems before we start telling China what they can or can’t eat.
As he signed the bill, he said he wouldn’t abide by the oversight of the $500b slush fund.
Every day I'm grateful that I live in a place that had the time to respond, the means to contain incoming cases, and is at least sort of taking this seriously. I think we should've been on lockdown from last week with the hope of re-opening in a month, but the cases are going up in spite of new measures so it might be too late now. Every returner/arrival from overseas here is now under mandatory state enforced quarantine for 14 days in a hotel, at state gov't expense, and that helps, but I'm not sure it will be enough anymore. This bug is contagious as hell.
There is a wide spread misunderstanding of why we need test kits. It is not just having a handle on the number of cases. In China and S Korea, the public health agencies, augmented by police and military, tracked down every contact person within the past several days of every confirmed covid case. Those folks were then tested and if positive, quarantined. Sort of like the US counties do with STD's, only on steroids. The film clips you see from China of people being dragged from their apartment kicking and screaming were people who had been a tracked down contact and tested positive. They were summarily pulled out and sent to quarantine. No packing, no clothes, no time for any arrangements. The remaining folks that did not test positive were told to sanitize their apartment and quarantine themselves.
We have had relatively few kits and such slow test results that we've done essentially none of the above. Neither did Italy or Spain. New York is the tip of the spear from an unknown spread standpoint.
At the least, it is a good live fire exercise to see how fast a contagion can spread when none of the anticipated public health efforts that were incorporated in every City, County and State level emergency plan were actually performed.
We have had relatively few kits and such slow test results that we've done essentially none of the above. Neither did Italy or Spain. New York is the tip of the spear from an unknown spread standpoint.
At the least, it is a good live fire exercise to see how fast a contagion can spread when none of the anticipated public health efforts that were incorporated in every City, County and State level emergency plan were actually performed.
And were all the people who had been in contact with the confirmed positives tracked down and either tested or quarantined? If one can't get prompt test results, quarantine is the only choice until the result comes back either positive or negative. That is the step that I doubt occurred, at least uniformly. And of course, in a state of 7-8 million, it is easy to recognize that a lot were exposed that were never tested. That is where greater New York City finds itself.
Draw what you will from the data. The amount of tests and positive results seems to tell me that the public health officials are chasing down positives relatively well. Seven percent are coming back positive. Or, they could be overwhelmed and have decided that it’s no longer worth running everyone down and quarantining the positives and those at risk. My father in law was tested yesterday. He’s supposed to stay in his house until the results come back on Tuesday.
https://www.doh.wa.gov/emergencies/coronavirus
King county & DOH stopped chasing down contacts a long time ago. It doesn’t take very many cases before that task becomes nearly impossible just due to the numbers, and the number of staff required to chase them down. At some point you have to let public messaging and the patient families to help get word out.
And, any effort you’re trying to make is severely undermined when you can’t test the close contacts anyway.
Agreed, 95. LA County has also stopped testing in a lot of cases, which essentially means that we'll shelter as well as possible and let it run its course. Nothing like what S Korea or China or Singapore did.
For some background insight on the testing issues from the poor guy who just got put in charge of testing for LA County:
https://www.latimes.com/california/...mprove-our-grossly-inadequate-capacity-so-far
For some background insight on the testing issues from the poor guy who just got put in charge of testing for LA County:
https://www.latimes.com/california/...mprove-our-grossly-inadequate-capacity-so-far
