Yes/No: Did RoLo inherit a better roster than Leach at WSU and ...
- Thread starter PeteTheChop
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He inherited a much better roster and who knows if he will have a better winning percentage. I hope he does.
better roster than leach inherited- yes
Better career record - maybe?
Better 5 year mark (2015-2019 for Leach ) - doubtful.
Will we be left with a better roster? Depends on when he leaves. Things haven't been encouraging on the trail thus far, but it's still early. If he lands some better talent he will.
Will he have a better record? He should as he's not set up to struggle coming out of the gate like Leach was. If Rolo can start with three seasons of 6-6 he should easily win this one.
Will he have a better 5 year record? This would be the most difficult. If he's able to win a conference championship while avoiding a let down season yes. Though if he wins a conference championship he probably won't stick around for long.
Will he have a better record? He should as he's not set up to struggle coming out of the gate like Leach was. If Rolo can start with three seasons of 6-6 he should easily win this one.
Will he have a better 5 year record? This would be the most difficult. If he's able to win a conference championship while avoiding a let down season yes. Though if he wins a conference championship he probably won't stick around for long.
1. Better inherited roster? Yes, not all that close.
2. Better overall record? About the same, probably slightly under, even if I hope he blows Leach out of the water. Rolovich shouldn't have any 3-9 seasons--Leach had two--but I think we're in for more 7-6 types of years as opposed to Leach's better 9-4 kinds of years, and while I'd love to be wrong, I doubt Rolovich ever goes 11-2 at WSU.
3. Better 5-year stretch? Doubtful, although that 6-7 last year from Leach makes it easier.
4. Better 4-year stretch than '15 - '18? Would be amazing if it happens, but I'd be shocked.
Most don't realize how tough it is to win at WSU, especially for an extended period.
2. Better overall record? About the same, probably slightly under, even if I hope he blows Leach out of the water. Rolovich shouldn't have any 3-9 seasons--Leach had two--but I think we're in for more 7-6 types of years as opposed to Leach's better 9-4 kinds of years, and while I'd love to be wrong, I doubt Rolovich ever goes 11-2 at WSU.
3. Better 5-year stretch? Doubtful, although that 6-7 last year from Leach makes it easier.
4. Better 4-year stretch than '15 - '18? Would be amazing if it happens, but I'd be shocked.
Most don't realize how tough it is to win at WSU, especially for an extended period.
I think it's clear that Rolo is starting with a better roster, but more importantly, a better team culture. He's got a bunch of kids that got to experience success and expect to win.
I'm not a fan of cherry picking seasons to rate a coach because if you do that, you can make Jim Walden one of the better coaches in WSU history (three bowl eligible teams in a four year period). I think Rolovich will definitely have a better overall record than Leach. That's not an indictment of Leach though, as alluded to by others above, Leach's record at WSU was outstanding once he got "his team" firmly in place.
The thing that we don't know about Rolovich is whether he was building something that would last at Hawaii or if it was just a good collection of guys that were going to be gone and left a mess for the next guy to clean up. He wasn't at Hawaii long enough to know for sure. If you look at Kevin Sumlin from 2009-12, he looked like a future hall of fame coach. 38-14 with two seasons with 11+ wins and another 10 win season at the start. Turns out, he's only a good coach when he's got the right QB. At Arizona, he's starting to look more like Paul Wulff than Nick Saban.
Frankly, it's starting to look like Leach got a little lucky in landing Minshew in 2018. That 11-2 team could have easily been a 6-7 team without Minshew. Of course, Leach gets credit for pulling Minshew in.....because it was what we obviously needed. Leach obviously did great things at WSU, but the stumble at the finish and the departure for a program like Mississippi State has tarnished his legacy for many.
Only time will tell how Rolovich does and it will be difficult for him to have a more positive impact overall on WSU than Leach did. For him to be considered more of a success than Leach, he will need to win at least a division title and get us to the Pac-12 title game. Just winning more than 54% of his games isn't enough.
Better roster? Of course. Is that a real question? Not just the roster but the top to bottom player development program isn’t remotely comparable.
As for Rolo’s record, no, I don’t see him doing as well. Betting on him to improve on the best sustained run of success in program history is a stretch.
As for Rolo’s record, no, I don’t see him doing as well. Betting on him to improve on the best sustained run of success in program history is a stretch.
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Better roster, yes on O, clearly. But on D, we are worse off -- if you look at the numbers. And that is a particularly strong slam on Leach, since we are talking about him inheriting from Wulff, who couldn't recruit at all. Let's not forget that our defense, last year, was virtually non-existent. In conference, we gave up 493 yards per game, last against the run, last against the pass, last in points, the perfect triple crown. UCLA, the #2 in bad, was considerably better yardage wise. And the scary part is that it wasn't because of inexperience, we just lacked talent. By comparison, in 2011, we were the the #6 defense, #9 in 2012. Rolo will be a miracle worker to get us to #9 in 2020.
The culture is much improved, but Rolo doesn't have a hope in hell of being more successful than Leach, unless he picks it up and starts recruiting near the mid of the Pac. More bottom rung recruiting won't cut it. Despite all his personality flaws, Leach was/is a friggen coaching genius, Rolo, a much nicer man, is not. He will need to win the Price way (when he did), by getting top talent on the field -- the days of "smoke and mirrors" is over.
The culture is much improved, but Rolo doesn't have a hope in hell of being more successful than Leach, unless he picks it up and starts recruiting near the mid of the Pac. More bottom rung recruiting won't cut it. Despite all his personality flaws, Leach was/is a friggen coaching genius, Rolo, a much nicer man, is not. He will need to win the Price way (when he did), by getting top talent on the field -- the days of "smoke and mirrors" is over.
These are all good and fair observations. While the Walden and Minshew points deserve discussion as well, I think you're on to something with the cautionary note on Rolovich. I think it's quite possible he found a way to have a 10-5 year in which he snuck past a couple lower-tier Pac-12 teams at home with the significant Hawaii HFA and a senior QB good enough to get drafted--unlike Gordon, for instance--and where he had 9 games at home. A couple balls bounce the other way or he has to play only 8 games at home and he probably goes 8-7 or worse.
Usual caveats: all indications are that he was a great hire given what WSU realistically could land, and hopefully he was trending up, not peaking with a frothy year. Leach said he was a good hire in the long and short terms. National and local press, other coaches, and everyone else I can find says he was a good hire. I'm not saying otherwise. I know he was resource-constrained at Hawaii and, in particular, has more to work with here in terms of bringing in a quality defensive staff, which should help a great deal. But everyone would have said Sumlin was a good hire at various points in time, too, and we'll have to see how it goes.
Better roster yes
Better record over 5 years doubtful
Better big game and Apple cup record. Yes or I hope so.
Better defense. Absolutely Jake Dickert is a stud
Better record over 5 years doubtful
Better big game and Apple cup record. Yes or I hope so.
Better defense. Absolutely Jake Dickert is a stud
I wonder what is the best finish for a Pac-12 team that won the bad D title? The 2019 Cougs, Best O and the worst D.
I didn't say that he was going to be a better coach. I said that I believe he will have a better record. Leach had three years of subpar records as he fought to change the culture at WSU. He was 12-25 before he finally got a team that was really playing the right way. Rolovich is less likely to have that kind of hill to climb. Most of the "good" coaches that we've hired have been able to finish above 0.500 in their careers at WSU. Heck, Walden was within one win of 0.500 after seven years before the wheels fell off at the end.
i believe that Rolovich is going to have a good start just because our offense is loaded with a lot of talent and I think the defense can be a lot better than it looked last year. Will he be able to build on what Leach did? I guess we'll find out.
As bad as our defense was last year, we were definitely better than Arizona and Oregon St. Maybe better than Colorado, UCLA, and Stanford too.
Nobody in the PAC has had to defend the R&S. Let's not underestimate that in terms of helping Rolo in his first year, as other things inherent in a first year hurt him. It took CML 2-3 recruiting classes to get to where he wasn't wondering who he would have each year. Rolo is in a much better situation. I think it is likely that Rolo's first 3 years will be better than CML's first 3 years. After that, it is on Rolo to perpetuate the success. He is personally a much better recruiter. Is he a good architect of a program? I like what I saw at Hawaii, but only time can tell how he will do. I am optimistic, but I can't tell you that I am certain. Nobody can be certain.
What are you basing that on? We were last in total and passing yardages surrendered, last in points allowed, in conference. How do you argue against that? We gave up over 493 yards per game and over 36 points, in conference. We gave up 67 pts in a game for Christ sake, couldn't hold a 32 pt lead with 22 minutes to play, that is just about as bad as it gets.
Rolo inherited a full cupboard on offense, but on D, he/we are in a world of hurt. Lets not rewrite history with claims that the 2019 D wasn't half bad.
I agree with you. My inner optimist hopes it’s because we lacked a decent coach on D and a true on the field leader. The rest of me thinks that my inner optimist is delusional.
The R&S isn't complicated to defend but leads to more explosives
Arizona allowed 41pts to Northern Arizona. And Oregon St's defense wasn't able to hold an 11 pt lead against us late in the 4th quarter without us having the benefit of a turnover. I do think we would have been worse if we would have had either of those defenses. And I'm not sure Colorado, UCLA, or Stanford would have been much of an improvement either.
etown, I can't disagree with your statement, but I don't think that it covers the subject. "complicated" is one of those words with many shades. I would posit that the R&S is both very simple (in concept) and very complicated (in actual practice) to scheme against from a D standpoint. Every D we play will have its strengths and weaknesses, and the D staff will do what they can to leverage their strengths against their vulnerabilities. It seems clear that you can't defend the air raid with strictly man coverage unless you have overwhelming athletic superiority. As a result, many things were tried. When we limited ourselves in terms of run and semi-run plays, we made the rush 3/drop 8 zone the go to defense...but that was due to our O choices, not because the air raid was inherently unable to pound the ball. Still, the air raid is not an offense that is comfortable with pounding the ball regularly. The R&S strikes me at this point as being more run friendly. That, and the post snap reads strike me as making the R&S an offense where a D that has weak corners and has to rely on the zone a lot will have trouble. On the other hand, a team with strong corners should be able to scheme to take other things away. Maybe I'm wrong, but my initial read is that any D trying to successfully defend the R&S (at least a well executed R&S) will have to start with the decision to put the CB's into man coverage. If they lack the personnel to make that work, the R&S should be able to make them pay. If they have to commit to a zone, it looks to me as though the run game should be able to work. And making a D look like a zone when it isn't, or look like man when it isn't, leads to a lot of complexity. Too much complexity and you get blown D assignments. Too little complexity and you make the post snap reads easier. Add to that the fact that we will be the only R&S on each PAC team's schedule and you create a headache for the D staff. So yes, in theory, defending the R&S is not complicated to defend. But in practice it seems much more complicated, particularly when the D staff has to figure out just how far they can afford to leave their corners hanging out by themselves.
Chop...
Do you believe Rolo is equal or better to Dennis and Leach? Not sure I do, but it goes to several things. i know very little about him, and I haven't seen him operate at WSU.
Both Erickson and Leach came to WSU with the previous season with roughly two conference wins. Erickson inherited a first round pick at QB, RB, a full Dline, two NFL players along the oline, lots of young and experienced players. He was 3-7-1.
Leach took longer to turn the ship around.
So WSU comiing off a 3-6 conference record, do I think the defense is vastly improved and Cooper or Cruz will match in numbers with fewer turnovers than Gordon? Not sure.
Also, there are several things to look at when you ask the question you did? Are they better short term, medium term to get them through until the recruiting gets into high gear and long term.
Also, truth be told, in one situation we have history, we KNOW how some people turned out. The other one we don't know for several years.
Take the oline. When the 2012 team took the field I think they had 12 scholie olineman. Rolo will have 17 unless some have dropped out.
In 12 what we didn't know was he inherited 5 lineman that Leach's recruits couldn't beat out, two plus dahl started for three seasons. What we know is Rolo will have a solid three. We know nothing about Greene, and have limited info on Kingston. Are the 6 or so behind them good? We don't know and won't know. What we do know for every Abe Lucas there is a Chris Haanegna and Sean Krepsz. Leach's brilliance is he made sure he brought in numbers. So please don't view what I have classified as a miss as a slight on Leach. But read it as we don't know who and what are really behind the starters. Maybe that is the reason rolo is looking at several JC transfers.
QB- Again we don't know what we have. In Halliday and Tuel they had some sort of track record. I am not sure if Cooper is Bruggman or Falk yet.
RB. No question this group has more talent, and the biggest discrepancy. But in Borghi's case you touch the ball 6 times the discrepancy becomes less and less.
WR- Inside guys certainly are better than what was inherited by Leach, but how many ties did Harris and Calvin touch the ball?
Outside guys were either even or a slight advantage for Wulff's guys. Hard to argue when they played in the league.
Defense? I would probably say starters I would go to 2012, but there is an argument to be made, but we don't know what the backups are like that Leach recruited.
I have a tough time getting my hands around how a guy in his first year is going to do much better than Leach at 3-6 in conference breaking in a new system, a new Cb (losing their best), a new QB.
That is my short term outlook to your question. Then comes the intermediate outlook- do they have enough talent to get rolo's guys up and running. After year one, 3/5's of oline will have to be replaced. (I suspect Lucas is off to the NFL)
RB-Does Borghi stick aorund for his senior year? That is a question
WR-how many do we lose?
Dline- Don't we lose Taylor and Rodgers?
Woods our best linebacker.
So I see rolo being right where or close to where Leach was after four years.
The one advantage is a lot of those kids understood what it takes to win, and that is a pretty important factor.
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Rolo inherited a better program. yes. Better talent. yes.
What will be key for Rolo is the whatever Leach's secret sauce was for winning, that you don't throw that out.
I just hope that being a players coach, that he appears to be, doesn't mean he doesn't demand 100% effort on everything you do. I liked that Leach stuck to his guns on everything he did - whether we liked it or not.
What will be key for Rolo is the whatever Leach's secret sauce was for winning, that you don't throw that out.
I just hope that being a players coach, that he appears to be, doesn't mean he doesn't demand 100% effort on everything you do. I liked that Leach stuck to his guns on everything he did - whether we liked it or not.
Here are the starters from 2019 that are going to be back
OL - Ryan, Watson, Lucas
RB - Borghi
QB - none
WR - Bell, Martin
DL - Rodgers, Hobbs
LB - Taylor, Woods, Rogers
NB - Brown
CB - Hicks III
SS - Thomas
We've got plenty of guys that are back and every coach is always banking on their players getting better as they mature. As far as receivers go, don't undersell Calvin Jackson Jr. The dude had 10 catches despite appearing in only 3 games last year. We've got 5 receivers who had 10+ catches last year even though we did lose the top three receivers.
For all of the bagging on our defense from last year, and deservedly so, we only gave up more than 40 points twice all year. The 2012 team gave up about the same number of points in 12 game as the 2019 squad gave up in 13 games and gave up over 40 points four times. I'd take our current players over the 2012 squad in a heartbeat. They aren't where I wish we were, but in 2019, we lacked the leadership to finish in the clutch. Figure that out and the defense looks a lot better fast.
At this point now I think all MB has done is flash talent. He hasn't run the ball at all to PROVE anything. He is essentially a wide receiver lined up in the backfield that catches short passes.
If you're running a swing pass offense, which is Leach's air raid, he is your guy.
If you're looking for a legit back that can carry the ball, the jury is out as his first two seasons at WSU have been pissed away by Leach.
He would need a juggernaut of a 2020 to leave early. He could do it. I have seen enough to think he is capable of it. My gut tells me he will need two seasons of carrying the ball to prove his draft stock to the NFL.
FWIW, Fox is considering him one of the Top 10 running backs of the 2020 season. He had 817 yards on 127 attempts last season. He had 1400 yards of total offense. That's more than a flash.
Before you start comparing the 2019 D favorably with the 2012 D -- imagine for one minute -- the 2019 D combined with one of the worst offenses in the conference, not hands down the best! That is a scaring thought, but the 2012 situation. Also, let's not forget the 2012 defense was basically undertalented Mountain West Wulff holdovers. So even if the comparison were fair, and that is a big "if"(if you look at stats), Rolo is basically inheriting Wulff calibre talent on defense. Slice it anyway you want, it still comes up -- we are in bad shape on defense. We can hope and pray it was merely poor leadership or coaching (the Air Force game does give us some hope on the poor coaching front), but did ever ask yourself last year, "why with all this speed and size are we playing so poorly?" I certainly didn't. I saw a ton of too slow, too small, out there.
Rolo has a tough enough job as it is. He doesn't need to confront a deluded fan base, who because of their love for what Leach accomplished, refuse to acknowledge the major problem he faces rebuilding the defense.
Yes, better roster.
Doesn't have track record yet, but he could be a better coach, nobody knows yet. He was a good QB in college, fans/players/alumni seem to love him, smart etc.
The D last year wasn't good, but 75% of it was probably coaching. Whatever the %, it fell more towards Xs and 0s not Jimmys and Joes. (players weren't great either.) It was pathetic.
Doesn't have track record yet, but he could be a better coach, nobody knows yet. He was a good QB in college, fans/players/alumni seem to love him, smart etc.
The D last year wasn't good, but 75% of it was probably coaching. Whatever the %, it fell more towards Xs and 0s not Jimmys and Joes. (players weren't great either.) It was pathetic.
I didn't say that we had a good defense in 2019. I said that the 2012 defense was worse. I agree that there are definitely some talent issues on defense and nobody denies that.
However, I do think that coaching on the defensive side was our biggest issue and that there is room for improvement sooner than later. I saw a team last year that could be good defensively at times but melted down at times. That's not going to change right away of course.
What I'm hoping for is that Cooper (or someone that beats him) has that extra mobility that Minshew displayed....and maybe even more. Gordon played much better than expected, but we also know that we win four more games with Minshew running the show. Cooper could be a step back, but he could be a step forward. I wouldn't predict that the Cougs will win more than 7 games this season, but with the way that it felt that the coaching staff had checked out, particularly by the end of the season, I could see us being ok this year if Rolovich has gotten us a DC who gets the defense playing together as a unit.
I agree that the biggest problem with the defense was the coaching. I don't agree that if Minshew were QB last year that the team wins four more games. The offense was just as good last season. I think it is more correct that if last years team had 2018's defense, then they win four more games.
I saw zero explosion on defense. I did not see anyone at corner coming back that remonded me of Torey Hunter, Dee Morokola, Karl Paymah, or even D Molton.
Yes, I guess coaches are counting on replacing guys every year. But that is where the huge question marks come in. if these guys on the bench were so good, why did they get reps after the collapse of last years defense.
My full expectations are different than most. IT cracks me up people say 7 wins are possible and yet we were 6-7 and 3-6 in conference with a hugely experienced coach.
Yeah, if Herc is on the bench, if even a Molton type corner is on the bench, if Cooper becomes a player, then maybe my expectations will be different. But that is a lot of "ifs".
There is value in saying you are what your record says you are.
There is also truth in having left meat on the bone.
Last season was one of the most poorly coached seasons Ive seen at WSU. That was a 10 win team coached down.
What is coming back, imo, isnt a 3 league win team. It’s better than that.
Defensively, they were poorly coached, played badly and left hamstrung by poor special teams play and turnovers by the offense that left them with short fields to defend. In a season when the defense needed the offense and special teams to help them out, they got nothing.
They need help all over the defense. They have no big time DBs, they have no big time LBs, they have no big time DL or pass rushers. That side of the ball needs an experienced PAC 12 coach that KNOWS what diamonds in the rough look like and can recruit them. Banker was prob Rolo’s best hire.
Last season was one of the most poorly coached seasons Ive seen at WSU. That was a 10 win team coached down.
True -you're too young to recall but relative to the RPM squad of 1985, the 2019 squad isn't even in the running for poorly coached seasons.
True -you're too young to recall but relative to the RPM squad of 1985, the 2019 squad isn't even in the running for poorly coached seasons.
Minshew didn’t play defense, which is where most of our problems were. I agree his leadership and confidence would have made 2019 better, and I think that By itself makes the difference against UCLA. Maybe it gets us another TD against ASU, maybe he doesn’t throw a pick-8 at Oregon. I don’t think he makes the difference in any other games. At most +3, probably less. Our D just wasn’t good enough, especially in the second half of the season.
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