Cougars in the CFP? What needs to happen for WSU to defy the odds
Jon Wilner
Oct. 24, 2024 at 10:30 am
Eight weeks in, Washington State remains in contention.
Not for a bowl berth. As winners of six of their first seven games, the Cougars have already locked up a postseason bid.
Not for the conference title, either. In this unprecedented season, there is no Pac-12 title available.
But the Cougars are in contention for the biggest prize: a berth in the College Football Playoff.
That’s the Hotline’s opinion, but we aren’t alone. ESPN’s playoff predictor gives Washington State a 13 percent chance to qualify.
That’s not much, but it’s not zero. And there are plenty of teams, including a few that left the Pac-12 for the Big Ten, with zero chance to reach the CFP.
In our view, the ESPN forecast is a tad optimistic. It’s based on the metrics. When you include the human element that will surely inform the CFP selection committee’s decisions — we’re talking about brand bias, of course — then WSU’s real-world outlook is a darker shade of gray.
Of course, everything hinges on the Cougars (6-1) winning out. They must sweep the final five games to finish 11-1 in order to make the situation interesting when the committee gathers on the weekend of Dec. 8 to select and seed the 12-team field.
That won’t be easy. In fact, Washington State’s faint hopes could be extinguished this weekend by San Diego State, which has had an extra week to prepare for the Cougars’ visit.
But only one of Washington State’s five remaining opponents currently has a winning record: Oregon State, which hosts the Cougars in the penultimate game of the season. The others (SDSU, Wyoming, Utah State and New Mexico) possess a combined record of 8-19.
(If the Cougars are 9-1 when they head to Corvallis, the competitive dynamic will be fascinating: The Beavers would be better served by losing because of the immense benefits that would come with their Pac-12 partner reaching the CFP.)
But an 11-1 record alone probably wouldn’t get the Cougars into the playoff. Remember, the Pac-12’s depleted state means WSU cannot qualify as a conference champion. The only pathway available is through the at-large pool, where the Cougars would compete with Notre Dame and the best teams in the Power Four that don’t win their conference titles.
In the expanded playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids. The next seven teams in the CFP rankings fill out the at-large field.
Put another way: At 11-1, the Cougars would need to finish the season ranked higher than a slew of two- and three-loss teams in the SEC and Big Ten that played tougher schedules, to say nothing of their advantages in the subjective and subconscious factors that will loom in the committee room.
But a slim chance is a chance nonetheless. In our view, the Cougars need help on four fronts, over and above running the table to finish 11-1:
1. Above all, the Cougars need Texas Tech — the team they walloped in Pullman in September — to win the Big 12 title.
Nothing would bolster their case for inclusion more than a head-to-head victory over a Power Four conference champion that’s headed to the CFP as an automatic qualifier.
If that stands as the dream scenario, the reality is far murkier. The Red Raiders (5-2) are merely one of several teams in the hunt in the chaotic Big 12, so let’s not presume this step plays out in WSU’s favor.
2. The Cougars need No. 17 Boise State to run the table in the Mountain West, win the conference title and capture the Group of Five’s automatic bid with a 12-1 record.
If the lone blemish on WSU’s resume is a road loss to a CFP participant whose only loss was by three points at top-ranked Oregon, the Cougars’ resume becomes far more palatable to the committee — especially if Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12.
3. The Cougars need Notre Dame to lose somewhere, anywhere, down the stretch.
In this regard, they are not alone. As an Independent, the Irish (6-1) are only eligible for the CFP through the at-large pool. If they finish 11-1, which is highly plausible given their modest upcoming schedule, the Irish will gobble an at-large spot that would otherwise go to the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten or SEC.
Or Washington State.
4. As grotesque as the reality might be to their fans, the Cougars need Washington (4-3) to finish well in the Big Ten. A top-half placement for the Huskies would add shine to WSU’s victory in the Apple Cup.
The best result possible, of course, would be a UW victory over Oregon in the regular-season finale.
All in all, we give the Cougars a 5 percent chance to reach the CFP.
Which, again, is better than a zero percent chance.
Jon Wilner
