So, the Pac-12 bowls, in order of selection, are:
Rose
Alamo
Vegas
Holiday
Sun
LA
The Pac-12 Bowl eligible teams (there will not be more) are:
Utah (8-1)
Oregon (7-2)
WSU (6-3)
ASU (6-3)
UCLA (6-3)
Oregon State (5-4)
Rose Bowl will be automatic - winner of the Utah-Oregon rematch goes. That's the only thing that's clear.
If Oregon beats Utah, the Alamo gets Utah. No other team is within 1 game of them, so that will be a lock. Neither Utah or Oregon will be ranked highly enough for an at-large NY6 berth with another loss.
If Utah beats Oregon (again), things get messy. The Alamo can then choose whoever they want from Oregon, WSU, ASU, and UCLA...because they're all within 1 game. Oregon State is 2 games behind Oregon, so they cannot be selected until after Oregon is. Frankly, I don't see any scenarios that have Oregon State getting picked over anyone else.
Alamo is a Big 12 matchup, and right now looks likely to be either Baylor or Oklahoma. I don't see the Alamo people taking a lower team to match up either of them, so Oregon is the likely pick.
After that, there's no clarity. The other games can pick any eligible team.
I'd be surprised if Vegas picks us when UCLA and ASU are both available. It's a Big 10 matchup, and looks likely to be a relatively small market team, so they're going to want to compensate with someone who draws well. Seems to me that UCLA is the most likely pick.
I could see us getting the Holiday. While we've been there twice in the last 6 years, we drew well both times. I think this one is either ASU or us.
Sun is also ACC. I don't think they'll take Oregon State over either us or ASU.
LA bowl is a Mt. West matchup, and is our worst case, but I think the Beavers go there.
Rose
Alamo
Vegas
Holiday
Sun
LA
The Pac-12 Bowl eligible teams (there will not be more) are:
Utah (8-1)
Oregon (7-2)
WSU (6-3)
ASU (6-3)
UCLA (6-3)
Oregon State (5-4)
Rose Bowl will be automatic - winner of the Utah-Oregon rematch goes. That's the only thing that's clear.
If Oregon beats Utah, the Alamo gets Utah. No other team is within 1 game of them, so that will be a lock. Neither Utah or Oregon will be ranked highly enough for an at-large NY6 berth with another loss.
If Utah beats Oregon (again), things get messy. The Alamo can then choose whoever they want from Oregon, WSU, ASU, and UCLA...because they're all within 1 game. Oregon State is 2 games behind Oregon, so they cannot be selected until after Oregon is. Frankly, I don't see any scenarios that have Oregon State getting picked over anyone else.
Alamo is a Big 12 matchup, and right now looks likely to be either Baylor or Oklahoma. I don't see the Alamo people taking a lower team to match up either of them, so Oregon is the likely pick.
After that, there's no clarity. The other games can pick any eligible team.
I'd be surprised if Vegas picks us when UCLA and ASU are both available. It's a Big 10 matchup, and looks likely to be a relatively small market team, so they're going to want to compensate with someone who draws well. Seems to me that UCLA is the most likely pick.
I could see us getting the Holiday. While we've been there twice in the last 6 years, we drew well both times. I think this one is either ASU or us.
Sun is also ACC. I don't think they'll take Oregon State over either us or ASU.
LA bowl is a Mt. West matchup, and is our worst case, but I think the Beavers go there.