Cougs open as 15.5 point favorites
- Thread starter COUGinNCW
- Start date
Both teams need a win for bowl eligibility before their rivalry game. It's been a much longer time for the Beav's but both teams really should be hungry.
We were all surprised by the Stanford spread too. Cougs have played way better at home and really should have all blowouts in their home games.
That said wouldn’t touch this game.
I'd much rather see us as a -16 favorite than a -6 favorite. I live in Vegas and by this late in the season the Books are really good at what they do.
And contrary to the transitive property, Cal, who spanked the Cougs is a 1.5 point dog to Stanford, who just got blown out by the Cougs.
Its all about matchups. Our defense is terrible against offenses with running quarterbacks. Our defense at home against pocket passer quarterbacks is only somewhat terrible.
Oregon State is a poopy-butt, stinky team who has been the product of their easy schedule. WSU has been a dismal disappointment this season, OSU has been a “pleasant surprise,” but look at these stats:
OSU points scored per game: 31.1
OSU points against per game: 31.2
OSU yards per game: 396.0
OSU yards allowed: 434.2
WSU points scored per game: 40.3
WSU points against per game: 29.3
WSU yards per game: 522.2
WSU yards allowed: 453.8
Oregon State has played Oklahoma State (L), Cal-Poly (W), Stanford (L), Utah (L), UW (L) and ASU (W) at home; Hawaii (L), UCLA (W), Cal (W) and Arizona (W) on the road.
Do you see any good wins on their schedule? Fools gold, smoke-and-mirrors. WSU doesn’t have any quality wins and have proven capable of losing to anybody, anywhere, no matter how many points they score (see UCLA game). That being said, they are better than Oregon State. They’ve beaten Oregon State 5 consecutive times. There is no reason why this team should lose to the disgusting Beavers, in Pullman, in November, with bowl eligibility on the line. If they do, they should just hibernate for the winter.
OSU points scored per game: 31.1
OSU points against per game: 31.2
OSU yards per game: 396.0
OSU yards allowed: 434.2
WSU points scored per game: 40.3
WSU points against per game: 29.3
WSU yards per game: 522.2
WSU yards allowed: 453.8
Oregon State has played Oklahoma State (L), Cal-Poly (W), Stanford (L), Utah (L), UW (L) and ASU (W) at home; Hawaii (L), UCLA (W), Cal (W) and Arizona (W) on the road.
Do you see any good wins on their schedule? Fools gold, smoke-and-mirrors. WSU doesn’t have any quality wins and have proven capable of losing to anybody, anywhere, no matter how many points they score (see UCLA game). That being said, they are better than Oregon State. They’ve beaten Oregon State 5 consecutive times. There is no reason why this team should lose to the disgusting Beavers, in Pullman, in November, with bowl eligibility on the line. If they do, they should just hibernate for the winter.
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OSU is a bit streaky. Catch them when they are playing well and they are pretty good. Better prepare for that....
It's a game we should win. But Oregon St has been lucky this year and they are capable of hitting enough explosive plays to turn this into an extremely frustrating loss.
Against ASU, Herm inexplicably decided to attempt a two point try and then they didn't get the ball back because of a bail out PI call.
Looking at points and yards makes things look pretty good for us. But it doesn’t reflect matchups very well, especially when it includes the padded stats that game from our first two games.
Plus, there are two stats that concern me in this game:
Oregon state on the season is pretty good on 3rd down. They convert 44%. Our D is bad on 3rd down. Those two factors don’t reflect well on our ability to get them off the field.
Making it worse, they don’t turn it over. They have 4 giveaways all season.
Their D is bad, roughly the same as ours. I don’t see them stopping us a lot either. Our offense is more explosive, but they control it better (better run game, rare turnovers).
This really should be a shootout. We’re better at home, so I think we’ve got an edge, but they’re actually better on the road, so that edge isn’t huge. Our D is going to have to step up their game to create 15.5 points, but we should be OK if they play like they did late against Stanford.
I don’t expect a blowout, and I’m not as confident as some others. OSU still isn’t very good, but they’re not far away.
FWIW, we average 501 ypg if you toss out the first two games. OSU beat Cal Poly 42-7.....do you throw out that game? Cherry picking stats is usually not a great idea. Everyone knows that, in general, WSU is a superior team when compared against Oregon State. Everyone knows that WSU is a team that can beat anyone on their schedule, but has made egregious mistakes to let inferior teams win, and therefore can lose to anyone on their schedule.
If both teams play great, WSU wins easily. If our defense plays like it has at critical moments, we are in trouble. If we were playing in Corvallis, I'd mark it down as a loss. As it is, it won't surprise me to see WSU win by three touchdowns.
I guess my point in all of this is that WSU better win this game. They need to play hard and focused and efficient. Oregon State is capable of scoring points against bad defenses, which will present a challenge, but overall they stink. They are a poppy-butt, stinky team and we have them in Pullman in what is essentially the team’s last chance to secure bowl eligibility. This game will show us if this team has any mental toughness at all. Losing at home to these turds is just unacceptable.
You seem to have an anal fixation—poopy, stinky, turds, butt?
Here's what really interesting. And worrying:
- Oregon State LEADS THE COUNTRY - not just P5 - in fewest turnovers lost with 4
- Even Alabama has 3 more turnovers than OSU
- WSU is tied for 8th most turnovers in P5: 16 on the year makes 4x more than OSU
I rely on my eyes when handicapping WSU, not point spreads. We played well against Stanford offensively, but there were still a lot of concerns on the other side of the ball. Stanford is a mess. They had just lost to Colorado, but their backup QB still managed to throw for 494 yards, and all-time school record. That means more yards than guys like Elway, Luck, etc. They have no running game whatsoever, but still moved the ball against us very successfully.
Oregon State comes to Pullman with a lot of program momentum. Qualifying for a bowl game, any bowl game, is a huge goal for them, so they'll want this game badly. Our students will be gone, the alumni section will be weak, and the OSU band and their fans will be into the game. OSU is a balanced team. They average 155 yards/game rushing, and 241/game passing. Against comparable teams statistically (ASU, Stanford, UCLA, and even Cal), we've game up a ton of yardage and a lot of chunk plays.
We're going to have to outscore OSU to win the game, and if we hang onto the ball, we should be able to do that. The Beaver defense is bad, but it's worth noting that they still rank higher than our defense. They have the worst rushing defense in the conference, but they're middle of the road against the pass. Borghi could have a big game if we use him correctly.
With all of that said, the point spread for this game is ridiculous. If I were a neutral bettor, I'd take the Beavs and double digit points in a heartbeat. Most of the intangibles favor OSU in this game; particularly the subdued home field advantage.
Oregon State comes to Pullman with a lot of program momentum. Qualifying for a bowl game, any bowl game, is a huge goal for them, so they'll want this game badly. Our students will be gone, the alumni section will be weak, and the OSU band and their fans will be into the game. OSU is a balanced team. They average 155 yards/game rushing, and 241/game passing. Against comparable teams statistically (ASU, Stanford, UCLA, and even Cal), we've game up a ton of yardage and a lot of chunk plays.
We're going to have to outscore OSU to win the game, and if we hang onto the ball, we should be able to do that. The Beaver defense is bad, but it's worth noting that they still rank higher than our defense. They have the worst rushing defense in the conference, but they're middle of the road against the pass. Borghi could have a big game if we use him correctly.
With all of that said, the point spread for this game is ridiculous. If I were a neutral bettor, I'd take the Beavs and double digit points in a heartbeat. Most of the intangibles favor OSU in this game; particularly the subdued home field advantage.
I don’t get why this is so worrisome. Oregon State doesn’t turn the ball over often, but it’s not like forcing turnovers as a big part of our team that they will neutralize. Oregon State’s defense sucks and doesn’t force a lot of turnovers, if our offense is able to stay awake and consistently field 11 players, they should score. A lot.
If this team loses to UCLA and poopy-butt Oregon State at home they should be embarrassed.
This "poopy-butt" thing is really taking on Freudian proportions here.
Anyway, if you don't like "fewest turnovers" then maybe you'll enjoy "7th best takeaway ratio in Power 5"?
No matter how you slice it up, the great equalizer against us this year (other than defense) is takeovers. UCLA wouldn't have won without them, and we can't stop giving it away. We cannot depend on OSU to give it away but we can depend on them to take it away.
The poopy-butts have played a poopy-butt schedule...it has inflated their stats. Your hand-wringing over a terrible team like Oregon State, who has been historically bad for season after season, is “taking on Freudian proportions here.” They suck. If we lose to them, in Pullman, it’s because our players suck worse, not because the Beavers are formidable.
Well, apparently not every season. They've won 5 games this year and have 3 conference wins, one better than WSU. I think we should win but we are very capable of beating ourselves again.
Glad Cougar
Are you in 3rd grade? You are not doing a good job of representing WSU right now.
This isn’t a surprise at all. Like someone said above, based on our D and their O, at 15.5 you take the Beavers and the points all day. Apparently early bets have agreed, so Vegas is adjusting the line to make them think a little harder.
Do not take personal shots at me. Now, if you’d like to do it in person, DM me and we can make it happen. Otherwise, stick to the subject matter.
Theyll open with dumb spreads like that to get the money flowing, then late bettors rationalize "well, 13 is almost as good as 14...", "12 is almost as good as 13..." Etc
Until the line finds its equilibrium.
I better not get banned for advising others to not take personal shots at me. I’m not taking personal shots at other posters.
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