How successful should a WSU Football coach be?

[chipdouglas]

With most of Cougar fandom uncommonly united on Rolo being shown the door this season, it's worth asking: what does success look like in Pullman in terms of # regular season wins and postseason? Why? What other markers are you looking for as "success" (division/conference wins, etc)? Assume this is a "typical" season without injury/schedule/roster outliers. What is realistic?

For context, in the last 30 years - glory years for us between Price & Leach - the Cougs have lost 52% of their games and missed bowl season 60% of the time.

PS: with the Dawgs looking shaky this year, the "I don't care if we go winless as long as we win the AC" crowd may get to experience their fantasy in the short term. Will it be worth it?

 

[COUGinNCW]

Minimum of Bowl games 3 out of 5 seasons since it’s much easier to get to a bowl game now. Should never win fewer then 4. Would cut a coach a little slack here in year 1, like the guy who takes over for Rolo. Tons of key role seniors on this team and I’d expect there will be a lot of transferring so next years looking like 2-10 no matter who is coaching.

 

[CougPatrol]

7-5 is the number. Competitive in most conference games, regarded as a tough out. The occasional 10-2 season.

 

[CougEd]

With most of Cougar fandom uncommonly united on Rolo being shown the door this season, it's worth asking: what does success look like in Pullman in terms of # regular season wins and postseason? Why? What other markers are you looking for as "success" (division/conference wins, etc)? Assume this is a "typical" season without injury/schedule/roster outliers. What is realistic?

For context, in the last 30 years - glory years for us between Price & Leach - the Cougs have lost 52% of their games and missed bowl season 60% of the time.

PS: with the Dawgs looking shaky this year, the "I don't care if we go winless as long as we win the AC" crowd may get to experience their fantasy in the short term. Will it be worth it?

Price had the right model. His problem is qb’s left too early and they played too young . Could you imagine if Bledsoe redshirted (he had no real affect on 1990) and played in 1993? That would have strung together 92-93-94 bowl games . If we get Rutgers instead of CU we are bowl eligible in 96 and 97. Could Leaf have gotten us three more wins in 98? Maybe . So with any luck 92-93-94-96-97 and maybe 98.

 

[chipdouglas]

My number is 8. With OOC games, we get ~3 "free" wins every year, so if you can't crack 5 wins the rest of the way, you're posting a losing conference record every year. 8 wins is going to mean you're at least a minimal threat in conference, AND it means you're going bowling.

At first I thought 7, but this will almost necessarily put you in the bottom half of the conference, no interesting bowl games, and is an obvious Sark-like waste of rare Power 5 resources. Ask Husky fans how much they liked winning 7 games a year. I would expect a couple of 10+ win seasons every decade, and am OK with a similar number of 2-5 win rebuilding years.

9+ is just unrealistic - you're challenging for the division every year which is way outside our norm.

 

[BiggsCoug]

6 wins, bowl game, minimum floor.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

My number is 8. With OOC games, we get ~3 "free" wins every year, so if you can't crack 5 wins the rest of the way, you're posting a losing conference record every year. 8 wins is going to mean you're at least a minimal threat in conference, AND it means you're going bowling.

At first I thought 7, but this will almost necessarily put you in the bottom half of the conference, no interesting bowl games, and is an obvious Sark-like waste of rare Power 5 resources. Ask Husky fans how much they liked winning 7 games a year. I would expect a couple of 10+ win seasons every decade, and am OK with a similar number of 2-5 win rebuilding years.

9+ is just unrealistic - you're challenging for the division every year which is way outside our norm.

I mean, we've been over this ad nauseum when we discussed Leach's progress and whether or not he was 'succeeding' at WSU.

The win total is between 6-8 games, and bowling every year even if low tier bowl is a must. I personally feel that 8 wins is totally achievable and is a great launching point for the 9,10,11 win seasons - the kids know how to win and winning culture is being built.

I mean hell, Coastal Carolina is ranked right now ffs... yet here we are not even able to be competent in one phase of football. That should never be the case, ever.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

My number is 8. With OOC games, we get ~3 "free" wins every year, so if you can't crack 5 wins the rest of the way, you're posting a losing conference record every year. 8 wins is going to mean you're at least a minimal threat in conference, AND it means you're going bowling.

At first I thought 7, but this will almost necessarily put you in the bottom half of the conference, no interesting bowl games, and is an obvious Sark-like waste of rare Power 5 resources. Ask Husky fans how much they liked winning 7 games a year. I would expect a couple of 10+ win seasons every decade, and am OK with a similar number of 2-5 win rebuilding years.

9+ is just unrealistic - you're challenging for the division every year which is way outside our norm.

I think the answer depends on how you read the question. The OP said "win floor" for an average season when they posed the question and with that, I think the answer is 6 or 7 (I voted for 7). 8 wins is a good target to start every season but it's a pretty high for a "win floor". I had hoped that Leach had gotten us to the point where the 2019 season was an aberration and that we could expect 7+ wins every year, but frankly, I'm not sold on that right now.

I will say that if Rolovich wasn't an incompetent boob, we'd be 4-0 right now with a real shot at hitting that 8 win total. For me to view a WSU as truly successful, we need to finish with bowl games in 4 out of 5 seasons with at least one season where we are a factor in the race (8+ wins) and another where we either win the division or finish within 1 game of winning the division (9+ wins). All beside aside, people would consider that coach successful. An example of what I mean would be if the following would have happened:

2017: 9-4
2018: 11-2
2019: 6-7
2020: 4-8
2021: 7-5
2022: 8-4
2023: 10-2 or 11-1
2024: 5-7
2025: 7-5
2026: 8-4
2027: 10-2

If the above cycle was rinsed or repeated, that coach retires from WSU with a freakin' street named after him. If Leach had stayed at WSU and was able to maintain his average of just over 8 wins that he had from 2015-2019 until he retired, he'd have a statue out front of the stadium. Spike Dykes is regarded as a good coach at Texas Tech and he averaged just under 6 wins per season.

 

[chipdouglas]

I think the answer depends on how you read the question. The OP said "win floor" for an average season when they posed the question and with that, I think the answer is 6 or 7 (I voted for 7). 8 wins is a good target to start every season but it's a pretty high for a "win floor". I had hoped that Leach had gotten us to the point where the 2019 season was an aberration and that we could expect 7+ wins every year, but frankly, I'm not sold on that right now.

I will say that if Rolovich wasn't an incompetent boob, we'd be 4-0 right now with a real shot at hitting that 8 win total. For me to view a WSU as truly successful, we need to finish with bowl games in 4 out of 5 seasons with at least one season where we are a factor in the race (8+ wins) and another where we either win the division or finish within 1 game of winning the division (9+ wins). All beside aside, people would consider that coach successful. An example of what I mean would be if the following would have happened:

2017: 9-4
2018: 11-2
2019: 6-7
2020: 4-8
2021: 7-5
2022: 8-4
2023: 10-2 or 11-1
2024: 5-7
2025: 7-5
2026: 8-4
2027: 10-2

If the above cycle was rinsed or repeated, that coach retires from WSU with a freakin' street named after him. If Leach had stayed at WSU and was able to maintain his average of just over 8 wins that he had from 2015-2019 until he retired, he'd have a statue out front of the stadium. Spike Dykes is regarded as a good coach at Texas Tech and he averaged just under 6 wins per season.

Yeah. By "floor" I meant in an average season; maybe poor wording. 8 definitely shouldn't be a 'high,' and averaging 6-7 wins means you're under 0.500 in conference play. 7 or 8 both seem like fair answers; anything below is in the basement and anything more is just not grounded in history or realism.

Another factor has to be recruiting. You're already permanently disadvantaged in Pullman; averaging sub-0.500 in conference is going to compound the complexities when competing with 'peer' performing teams like Furd, Cal, OSU, ASU, UA, UCLA and even Utah/CU.

 

[95coug]

Win floor to me is 4. That assumes that we start following a scheduling model that gives us 3 non-conference wins. It also assumes that 4 wins is an aberration. I don't want to see it happen twice in any player's career.

His average win floor should certainly be above 6. That's not setting the bar high if we're winning 3 non-con games. But, it means that a 4-win season is being offset by at least 2 bowl seasons. However...I'll point out that since 1970, of the coaches who have been in Pullman multiple seasons, only Erickson, Doba, and Leach meet that metric. Only Leach meets it with any breathing room (although the others only had 11 games per season). I'd rather see the floor at above 6.5...which only Leach meets.

 

[COCoug]

It depends on the schedule and the strength of the conference. I would say in a year like this 6 at the very minimum, and that is a pretty low bar.

 

[dgibbons]

Just noting you left 14 off the poll.

 

[froropmkr72]

12 every year!

 

[CougSinceBirth]

Just noting you left 14 off the poll.

He also left off 13 and 15, too.

 

[dgibbons]

He also left off 13 and 15, too.

Well, 13-1 means you’re a loser. Only fourteen games possible, smart guy.

 

[SDCoug]

Well, 13-1 means you’re a loser. Only fourteen games possible, smart guy.

12 regular season
Pac-12 championship
1st round CFP
Championship game

 

[dgibbons]

12 regular season
Pac-12 championship
1st round CFP
Championship game

Like I said, 15-0 or you’re a loser!

 

[OrangeGravy]

What is WSU's average conference record over the last 30 years? What ever that comes out to successful would be consistently besting that. Nothing that has happened in the last 10 years in the athletic department should raise expectations over what they've historically been. WSU is still regarded in the same way it has been historically compared to other programs.