In the Mohamed Gueye thread I posted projections on how I think the team will do this coming next season.
I got a lot of guff about that.
So I qm going to try to do a breakdown on, about that projection, and why, how I think its realistic. I doing that here because I didnt want a longer post in that other thread.
BREAKDOWN:
ROSTER:
1. FLOWERS: 15.5 to 17.5 ppg, 3.75 to 5.5 assist per game. 3 point shooter. A top 2,3,4 PG in Pac 12
2. Noah Williams 17.5 to 20.5 ppg. 2,2.5,3 assist per game. 5.5 rebounds per game, 2.5 steals per game, 46% 3 point shot. #1 or #2 best SG in the Pac 12.
3. 9.5 ppg from either DJ Rodman, Kim, AJ, maybe even more from Gueye if Gueye starts at 3 spot.
4. Efe/Gueye: 10 to 14 ppg apiece
5. Dischon Jackson/Gueye: 10 to 14 ppg apiece.
Bench, Depth, Rotation:
1. Tyrell Roberts, Koulibaly, Rapp, Rice
2. Koulibaly, Flowers, Bamba, Rapp
3. Gueye, Kim, DJ, AJ, Rosario, Bamba, Rapp
4. Dischon, AJ, Kim, Tony Miller, 6-9 Walk On
5. Vova, Efe, 6-9 Walk On
Team: About 78.5 ppg. Will Probably allow 55 to 65 to 75 ppg(Good Team Defense)
Talent Comparison.
WSU Likely has either better or higher rated talent then:
ASU: Especially after Remy and any others left.
Cal.
Ore St: Its Ore St's coaching, not their talent level, that was responsible for their NCAA Run, Tinkle Comparable to Tony and Dick Bennet.
Utah
WSU has equal rated talent to:
UW: Technucally UW talent higher rated, but WSU talent is still better.
Stanford: There is a reason Stanford didnt goto NCAA, NIT, and now that Zaire, others have left, WSU is about equal to Stanford in talent.
Colorado: Altho Colirado's talent is better then Ore St's, Colorado and WSU have about the same Talent level this coming season.
WSU's talent is Not as good as:
Arizona
USC:
UCLA:
How will WSU do in the Pac 12:
WSU will probably sweep UW, CAL, and will probably be swept 2 times by any 2 or 3 out of either: Arizona, or UCLA, or Oregon, or Colorado, or USC
WSU will probably Split with:
ASU, Utah, Stanford, Ore St
If WSU sweeps 2(4 total wins)(UW, Cal), and is swept by 2(4 total losses), and splits with 8 teams(8 wins), then that would a 12-6 record in conference for WSU.
So I think that because of that that WSU will at least be about 10-8,11-7 in conference.
But there is also the Coaching, X's and O's, development wise(Not recruiting)
WSU has better coaching then:
UW, Cal, ASU, Utah
Equal coaching to:
Arizona, Colorado, Stanford
Lesser coaching then
Oregon, UCLA, USC, Ore St
I think that WSU's coaching, recruiting, talent, depth, all combined together gets WSU to 9-9, 10-8, 11-7, 3rd to 6th place in Conference.
And in the Pac 12 Tourny WSU should at least get 1 or 2 Pac 12 tourny wins.
So that leaves:
Nonconference schedule.
I think its realistic that WSU wins 9,10,11 games in nonconference as only probably only 1 or 2 teams better then WSU, and 1 or 2 teams equal to WSU, with WSU better then about 7,8,9,10 teams that woukd be on its non con schedule.
So thats why its likely that WSU wins about 9,10,11 wins in Non Con.
9,10,11 wins from non con, and 9,10,11 wins in conference, equals 18 to 22 wins in regular season. Add at least 1 Pac 12 tourny win, and that becomes 19 to 23 wins(Good Enough for at least a NIT berth, and probably good enough for a NCAA bubble berth at the least, with a probable NIT Final 2/4/6, if NIT berth, and if NCAA instead of NIT, about a 6,7,8,9,10 seed, and about a 2nd round, maybe sweet 16 finish in NCAA Tourny.
And the total wins would be about 21,22,23,24,25 wins, depending on whether go to NIT, or NCAA, and what is done in Post Season play.
That is a REALISTIC BREAKDOWN projection, extrapolation, expectation of what WSU can, could, would, should do with the coaching, talent, depth(9,10,11 man rotation), they have.
Smith should be able to get at least this projection, with his coaching, talent, depth.
If he Smith, doesnt, cant, it would probably be because of injuries, etc. That or Smith isnt as good as a coach as most of us think. Or the talent didnt PAN OUT, or was OVERRATED, by the Talent Rankers(ESPN, Rivals, 2/4/7, etc.
This is NOT Pie in the Sky.
I got a lot of guff about that.
So I qm going to try to do a breakdown on, about that projection, and why, how I think its realistic. I doing that here because I didnt want a longer post in that other thread.
BREAKDOWN:
ROSTER:
1. FLOWERS: 15.5 to 17.5 ppg, 3.75 to 5.5 assist per game. 3 point shooter. A top 2,3,4 PG in Pac 12
2. Noah Williams 17.5 to 20.5 ppg. 2,2.5,3 assist per game. 5.5 rebounds per game, 2.5 steals per game, 46% 3 point shot. #1 or #2 best SG in the Pac 12.
3. 9.5 ppg from either DJ Rodman, Kim, AJ, maybe even more from Gueye if Gueye starts at 3 spot.
4. Efe/Gueye: 10 to 14 ppg apiece
5. Dischon Jackson/Gueye: 10 to 14 ppg apiece.
Bench, Depth, Rotation:
1. Tyrell Roberts, Koulibaly, Rapp, Rice
2. Koulibaly, Flowers, Bamba, Rapp
3. Gueye, Kim, DJ, AJ, Rosario, Bamba, Rapp
4. Dischon, AJ, Kim, Tony Miller, 6-9 Walk On
5. Vova, Efe, 6-9 Walk On
Team: About 78.5 ppg. Will Probably allow 55 to 65 to 75 ppg(Good Team Defense)
Talent Comparison.
WSU Likely has either better or higher rated talent then:
ASU: Especially after Remy and any others left.
Cal.
Ore St: Its Ore St's coaching, not their talent level, that was responsible for their NCAA Run, Tinkle Comparable to Tony and Dick Bennet.
Utah
WSU has equal rated talent to:
UW: Technucally UW talent higher rated, but WSU talent is still better.
Stanford: There is a reason Stanford didnt goto NCAA, NIT, and now that Zaire, others have left, WSU is about equal to Stanford in talent.
Colorado: Altho Colirado's talent is better then Ore St's, Colorado and WSU have about the same Talent level this coming season.
WSU's talent is Not as good as:
Arizona
USC:
UCLA:
How will WSU do in the Pac 12:
WSU will probably sweep UW, CAL, and will probably be swept 2 times by any 2 or 3 out of either: Arizona, or UCLA, or Oregon, or Colorado, or USC
WSU will probably Split with:
ASU, Utah, Stanford, Ore St
If WSU sweeps 2(4 total wins)(UW, Cal), and is swept by 2(4 total losses), and splits with 8 teams(8 wins), then that would a 12-6 record in conference for WSU.
So I think that because of that that WSU will at least be about 10-8,11-7 in conference.
But there is also the Coaching, X's and O's, development wise(Not recruiting)
WSU has better coaching then:
UW, Cal, ASU, Utah
Equal coaching to:
Arizona, Colorado, Stanford
Lesser coaching then
Oregon, UCLA, USC, Ore St
I think that WSU's coaching, recruiting, talent, depth, all combined together gets WSU to 9-9, 10-8, 11-7, 3rd to 6th place in Conference.
And in the Pac 12 Tourny WSU should at least get 1 or 2 Pac 12 tourny wins.
So that leaves:
Nonconference schedule.
I think its realistic that WSU wins 9,10,11 games in nonconference as only probably only 1 or 2 teams better then WSU, and 1 or 2 teams equal to WSU, with WSU better then about 7,8,9,10 teams that woukd be on its non con schedule.
So thats why its likely that WSU wins about 9,10,11 wins in Non Con.
9,10,11 wins from non con, and 9,10,11 wins in conference, equals 18 to 22 wins in regular season. Add at least 1 Pac 12 tourny win, and that becomes 19 to 23 wins(Good Enough for at least a NIT berth, and probably good enough for a NCAA bubble berth at the least, with a probable NIT Final 2/4/6, if NIT berth, and if NCAA instead of NIT, about a 6,7,8,9,10 seed, and about a 2nd round, maybe sweet 16 finish in NCAA Tourny.
And the total wins would be about 21,22,23,24,25 wins, depending on whether go to NIT, or NCAA, and what is done in Post Season play.
That is a REALISTIC BREAKDOWN projection, extrapolation, expectation of what WSU can, could, would, should do with the coaching, talent, depth(9,10,11 man rotation), they have.
Smith should be able to get at least this projection, with his coaching, talent, depth.
If he Smith, doesnt, cant, it would probably be because of injuries, etc. That or Smith isnt as good as a coach as most of us think. Or the talent didnt PAN OUT, or was OVERRATED, by the Talent Rankers(ESPN, Rivals, 2/4/7, etc.
This is NOT Pie in the Sky.