I’m looking forward to

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

So, do one year things matter? Or not?

Depends on the "thing", don't you think? In this context it's about trends involving diseases and mortality. Considering covid in "novel" we can't put it in the same category as diseases that have tracking going back numerous decades. Agree?

I have only to assume Observer was alluding to a point that all the focus on covid is letting other just as serious or more so things slip through the cracks. I don't think any reasonable person would dispute that. There is and always will be unintended consequences and collateral damage in these type scenarios. we likely won't known the full impact for years. At the moment we can only exp3ct to make decisions based on the best available evidence. Taihtsat

 

[BiggsCoug]

What I wish I'd see more people (outside the 50-60% in the middle) acknowledge is that it is our own behavior that has driven the clumsy and imprecise government closures, which are attempting to slow down the spread caused by people who don't acknowledge/refuse to believe/are told what to believe by their mega-church/decided that health issues are really a political conspiracy...etc. Business has been hurt, the impact on the poor amplified, ICU's have been slammed, and tragedy exacerbated by people who can't be troubled to behave in a manner that we've known since mid-April was the best course of action to protect others from spread. And those who read and understand what is going on often react so emotionally to the bad behavior by others that those who have still not accepted what has been learned simply put their hands over their ears and start shouting so they don't have to listen. As I've posted before, when this is over and we understand that 30-40% of the deaths could have been avoided with good civic behavior, we will need a national forgiveness effort. As well as a lot of guilt therapy, because despite how the majority view the minority to be both stupid and unfeeling in this matter, you know that guilt over the poor behavior is setting in for some, and more will experience it as they come to accept that a lot of people died unnecessarily. We will need to get past that blame as a society, because it is very corrosive. I have a partner who refuses to wear a mask (he wears a face shield to try to not feel so guilty) and the rest of us have had it. I can never respect him again. I will need to get past the bad feelings when this is past...and I honestly don't know if I can. I can only commit to try.

I wouldn't try at all. They have made it clear they can give two shits about you and your health. Why the f$ck would you then try to get along with them??? Run them over in the parking lot, call it an accident.

 

[dgibbons]

I assume everyone on some level adheres to identity politics. Just ask yourself what and with whom you identify and then move onto why and how and you'll likely get there. Taihtsat

So, it's all about the messenger, not the message in your world. Cool.

 

[dgibbons]

Are you open to the idea that cases began surging right after Halloween with a nationwide bump provided by thankgiving? This would not need bars or restaurants or gyms to feed the spread.

Is Australia an open society? Earlier this month while we were topping 200k cases per day, they had 6! ALL those cases were traced to incoming travel. I would agree with you that in the uSA it's not likely gonna happen if that's what you mean. Taihtsat

I'm open to the idea that Australia has a population of 25 million people on a land mass roughly the same size as the United States, that is an island nation, that is not an international travel hub. I'm also aware that with a population that small (relatively) contact tracing could actually work. I'm also aware that banning interstate travel in the US, as Australia has done, would violate the Constitution and would not be enforced. So that's an apples and oranges comparison.

I'm also open to the idea of you looking at the case counts state by state and if you do you may realize that the initial spread was slowed due to the lockdowns on the east and west coast, but now the inevitable has occurred. The virus has crept to the midwest and it's surging there in part due to the midwest escaping the initial surge back in March and April.

Edit to add- your number for Australia are off by 250 percent to 350 percent based on the numbers reported on worldometers.info. And if low numbers is what you're looking for, I hear North Korea is nice this time of year. A little hard to get to though.

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

So, it's all about the messenger, not the message in your world. Cool.

It's more complicated than that, and I think you know that. Taihtsat

 

[dgibbons]

It's more complicated than that, and I think you know that. Taihtsat

Apparently not for you.

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

I'm open to the idea that Australia has a population of 25 million people on a land mass roughly the same size as the United States, that is an island nation, that is not an international travel hub. I'm also aware that with a population that small (relatively) contact tracing could actually work. I'm also aware that banning interstate travel in the US, as Australia has done, would violate the Constitution and would not be enforced. So that's an apples and oranges comparison.

I'm also open to the idea of you looking at the case counts state by state and if you do you may realize that the initial spread was slowed due to the lockdowns on the east and west coast, but now the inevitable has occurred. The virus has crept to the midwest and it's surging there in part due to the midwest escaping the initial surge back in March and April.

Edit to add- your number for Australia are off by 250 percent to 350 percent based on the numbers reported on worldometers.info. And if low numbers is what you're looking for, I hear North Korea is nice this time of year. A little hard to get to though.

So, based on my concluding sentence with regards to us "it's not likely gonna happen" we agree and it would have simpler if you just said so in those few words.

How are my numbers off? My source was a program on NPR "On Point" which you can go listen to. I said it was several weeks ago. Yesterday they had 15 cases, we had 127,740 (worldometers). We have 1,028 deaths per million, they have 35. They implemented a national strategy, we didn't. Although I agree that it's likely no way Americans would have gone along with it in nearly the same fashion, consistent and cooperative messaging and collaborative efforts from the top would not have made things worse - likely much better.

And all you have to do was answer whether you think Australia in considered and "open" society. Taihtsat

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

Apparently not for you.

To quote John Adams:
"Your criticism merely documents your naivety". Taihtsat

 

[dgibbons]

So, based on my concluding sentence with regards to us "it's not likely gonna happen" we agree and it would have simpler if you just said so in those few words.

How are my numbers off? My source was a program on NPR "On Point" which you can go listen to. I said it was several weeks ago. Yesterday they had 15 cases, we had 127,740 (worldometers). We have 1,028 deaths per million, they have 35. They implemented a national strategy, we didn't. Although I agree that it's likely no way Americans would have gone along with it in nearly the same fashion, consistent and cooperative messaging and collaborative efforts from the top would not have made things worse - likely much better.

And all you have to do was answer whether you think Australia in considered and "open" society. Taihtsat

You already admitted your numbers were off, so there is no need for me to explain it to you. I gave you the source, and you even looked it up yourself.

The differences in "open" society, both practical and legal were previously explained.

It would also be simpler if you didn't make nonsensical analogies. But that is your call. Like I said, North Korea has zero cases.

 

[dgibbons]

To quote John Adams:
"Your criticism merely documents your naivety". Taihtsat

"Don’t assume that others adhere to identity politics just because you do."

-dgibbons

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

You already admitted your numbers were off, so there is no need for me to explain it to you. I gave you the source, and you even looked it up yourself.

The differences in "open" society, both practical and legal were previously explained.

It would also be simpler if you didn't make nonsensical analogies. But that is your call. Like I said, North Korea has zero cases.

No, I didn't. I asked you how you back up the claim that they are and pointed you where I got them. You seemed to have dodged.

Is Canada an open society? Japan?

It would also be simpler if you were better at following along and proper argumentation. That's all I have to say about that.

 

[dgibbons]

No, I didn't. I asked you how you back up the claim that they are and pointed you where I got them. You seemed to have dodged.

Is Canada an open society? Japan?

It would also be simpler if you were better at following along and proper argumentation. That's all I have to say about that.

Pointing out that Australia reported six cases on one day is totally neato, and lacking in context. Please explain what civil liberties the people of Australia, Canada and Japan have and compare them to those in the United States. In particular, focus on the government's ability to impose lockdowns, prohibit travel, impose contact tracing and forcibly quarantine people that are sick. If your research leads you to other issues, make sure to mention them as well. Also, since you're all about properness, please tell me the rules of argumentation. I'm very curious about that. Make sure you include things like false equivalency and relevant facts and information.

Again, it would be simpler if your followed your own advice.

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

You said this:

"What I am looking forward to is people acknowledging that there isn’t a way to stop the spread of a highly contagious respiratory virus in an open society."

I provided evidence that there is. Now you seem to want to lengthen the field (thats called moving the goalposts) and make a claim that ONLY the uSA should be considered an "open" society. Neat move, counsellor.

I'm curious about your claim that restrictions put in place like in these other open societies (by common standards...ya know, where people are free to move about at their leisure during normal times) would be a violation of the constitution. On what specific grounds do make that claim?

 

[95coug]

Heart disease and diabetes deaths way down too.


2020 - best.health.year.ever.

That’s an interesting conclusion, considering that the data aren’t available for 2019 yet, much less for 2020.
Heart disease has been the leader in the US for a while, followed by cancer. Neither of those is likely to see a significant reduction this year, and could even tick upward because of patients who avoided visiting the doctor due to COVID fears. The #3 cause of death for 2020 will be COVID, assuming other causes remain reasonably consistent with trends.
Accidents have been commonly #3, and may see a reduction due to less traffic and more people staying home. Flu deaths are also down (COVID protections likely play a role in this), and some other causes may see some reduction due to COVID fear also. But we’re still looking at excess deaths for most of the year, based on the provisional data.

Not sure what it’ll all look like in the end, but a lot of the data that people are throwing around isn’t really data. It takes a long time to compile and standardize mortality information from across the country, and even CDC doesn’t have it for this year yet.

 

[95coug]

Pointing out that Australia reported six cases on one day is totally neato, and lacking in context. Please explain what civil liberties the people of Australia, Canada and Japan have and compare them to those in the United States. In particular, focus on the government's ability to impose lockdowns, prohibit travel, impose contact tracing and forcibly quarantine people that are sick. If your research leads you to other issues, make sure to mention them as well. Also, since you're all about properness, please tell me the rules of argumentation. I'm very curious about that. Make sure you include things like false equivalency and relevant facts and information.

Again, it would be simpler if your followed your own advice.

I think the underlying point here is that any of those things (“impose lockdowns, prohibit travel, impose contact tracing and forcibly quarantine people that are sick”) are far less likely to work in the US. Not directly because of governmental jurisdiction or authority, but because there’s a much larger percentage of our population who will object to even being asked to inconvenience themselves unless they see a real and immediate - and usually economic - benefit to themselves.

Yes, I’m saying Americans are selfish. Because we are.

 

[95coug]

I'm curious about your claim that restrictions put in place like in these other open societies (by common standards...ya know, where people are free to move about at their leisure during normal times) would be a violation of the constitution. On what specific grounds do make that claim?

That one is easy. Article 4, Section 2 of the Constitution, the “Privileges and Immunities Clause.” It states “The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States.” While not explicit, this has consistently been interpreted to prevent barriers to travel between states. And, when combined with other clauses, prevents any federal restriction of such travel. Only the states can impose restrictions, and they must apply equally to their own citizens.

To my knowledge, Australia, Canada, Japan, etc have no similar regulation, and their state borders can be restricted centrally.

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

That one is easy. Article 4, Section 2 of the Constitution, the “Privileges and Immunities Clause.” It states “The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States.” While not explicit, this has consistently been interpreted to prevent barriers to travel between states. And, when combined with other clauses, prevents any federal restriction of such travel. Only the states can impose restrictions, and they must apply equally to their own citizens.

To my knowledge, Australia, Canada, Japan, etc have no similar regulation, and their state borders can be restricted centrally.

I agree that state's are the ones that mostly would be responsible for restrictions, but national emergency powers under certain section of the federal code could greatly complicate this. It would, nevertheless, be subject to a supreme court ruling, I believe, and isn't explicitly unconstitutional. It's certainly within some state's constitution's provided it is implemented without discrimination.

On a side note, why are we doing dgibs work for him? That's all I have to say about.

 

[CougEd]

I am 100% on board with masking and social distancing protocols, and I have been sheltering at home since March. I will also get vaccinated as soon as it's available to me.

With that said, yes, I am a proponent of keeping our primary infrastructure up and running and asking those who are most at risk to take added protective measures and shelter at home. I would not propose that large attendance gatherings such as sporting events, concerts, etc. take place, but I would have absolutely kept the schools open. The vacated stadiums and auditoriums across the Nation *should have* been converted to emergency medical overflow areas as needed.

This is going to come across badly, and I apologize in advance for the perceived insensitivity, but generally speaking, I view the pandemic casualties as natures will. It's harsh, and cruel, and unfair, as are diseases like cancer, heart disease, etc. Globally, we needed to act quickly to create a vaccine, which we have done, and I'm thrilled about it.

I don't think it would be accurate to say that I'm "shooting for herd immunity." If that happens, it happens. I have a live and let live attitude about life. I am a 2x cancer survivor, and I do everything I possibly can to maintain my health. I exercise 6x/week and eat an extremely clean diet. I care for my aging parents, and my Father is in the early stages of dementia. I'm also a single Dad to my twin boys. My doctor has told me that, given my health background, I'm at an extremely low risk of developing complications from COVID, as are my family. Good enough for me. If we get COVID, I believe we'll beat it. If we don't, I'll live with the outcome without regret. Again, I don't expect everyone to share that perspective, and I'm not careless about taking protective measures. The disease generally affects the elderly and those with compromised immunity or underlying health issues. We're destroying the economy and ruining the childhoods (and the futures) of tens of millions of children who are largely not at any risk whatsoever. That's not OK with me. Just my .02c.

I appreciate the honesty. While I disagree some, I do appreciate someone who calls it like it is. Those who die are a casualty of war, that those who are hospitalized are also casualty of war. We as a country won't try and mitigate the issue. While sad it is true.

 

[dgibbons]

You said this:

"What I am looking forward to is people acknowledging that there isn’t a way to stop the spread of a highly contagious respiratory virus in an open society."

I provided evidence that there is. Now you seem to want to lengthen the field (thats called moving the goalposts) and make a claim that ONLY the uSA should be considered an "open" society. Neat move, counsellor.

I'm curious about your claim that restrictions put in place like in these other open societies (by common standards...ya know, where people are free to move about at their leisure during normal times) would be a violation of the constitution. On what specific grounds do make that claim?

You have assumed that citizens of a number of western or developed countries have the same or at least similar civil liberties as we have in the United States and that the powers of their governments are restricted in the same or a similar way as the United States. That is called false equivalency. Perhaps you have forgotten that our forefathers revolted and fought a war over those things. I understand that you are declining to compare those countries to the United States and simply assume that all such things are the same.

Please continue your nonsensical lectures about “proper argumentation.”

Regarding the Constitution, this is off the top of my head: privileges and immunities, due process and First Amendment. Feel free to look them up and read all about them. I will just point out this- with the virus surging there is no ban on interstate travel. I mean real bans as in you go to jail or pay a fine, not threats, not public shaming, not guidelines, not elected officials staking pretty please. That kind of stuff happens in the UK and former empire colonies.

 

[dgibbons]

I think the underlying point here is that any of those things (“impose lockdowns, prohibit travel, impose contact tracing and forcibly quarantine people that are sick”) are far less likely to work in the US. Not directly because of governmental jurisdiction or authority, but because there’s a much larger percentage of our population who will object to even being asked to inconvenience themselves unless they see a real and immediate - and usually economic - benefit to themselves.

Yes, I’m saying Americans are selfish. Because we are.

There is a difference between something being impractical and the government being able to compel it. The Krusty one is conflating those concepts.

 

[dgibbons]

I agree that state's are the ones that mostly would be responsible for restrictions, but national emergency powers under certain section of the federal code could greatly complicate this. It would, nevertheless, be subject to a supreme court ruling, I believe, and isn't explicitly unconstitutional. It's certainly within some state's constitution's provided it is implemented without discrimination.

On a side note, why are we doing dgibs work for him? That's all I have to say about.

So, a CNN legal contributor doesn’t think a national mask mandate would fly. I am assuming that network is something you consider authoritative. So if a mask is a no-no, how do you think banning interstate travel and forced quarantine will fair?

Fact Check: Can the President enact a nationwide mask mandate?

In "Under Control," a new campaign ad set to air on digital and TV nationally, former Vice President Joe Biden lays out the toplines of his plan to tackle Covid-19.

www.google.com

 

[cr8zyncalif]

I wouldn't try at all. They have made it clear they can give two shits about you and your health. Why the f$ck would you then try to get along with them??? Run them over in the parking lot, call it an accident.

Biggs, the objective facts agree with your statement. But we will have to move on after the situation has passed. It is not too soon to think about how that will need to look in order to be successful as a society...regardless of the resentment that many of us will hold that stems from what the majority will view as selfishness by a not insignificant minority. As a Republican, I am both ashamed and dismayed that my party will bear the brunt of that for a while...and since the political pendulum is likely to swing wide, having been pushed pretty hard by this whole situation, I won't like some of the results. But my party deserves it, based on performance, and I can only hope that we will learn from the pain that is coming. We bounced back after Watergate, though it took someone as inept as Jimmy Carter to enable that recovery, and the party did in fact learn some things from its humbling. It will be interesting to see if history repeats in some ways. Ask me again in 8-10 years.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Without getting into an argument (hopefully), as I hate being lumped into a "side" on issues like this, I have a hard time reconciling this view that this would have gone much better if not for rubes refusing to wear masks (of which I'm not one, BTW). What about Europe? What about California, Washington, NY, etc.? So much less spread, and at-risk people wouldn't have died, if not for mega churches telling people not to wear masks in those places? I'm open to evidence backing that, but it seems that there instead are some visible examples of people refusing to wear masks or otherwise not taking this seriously, with those being afforded an outsized role by some in the "debate" on this, especially with the political overlay in this election year. I'd feel differently if there weren't all these flare-ups in many European countries, especially. It seems most likely that this instead is just pretty damned contagious and only the timing of spread, not its eventuality -- if even that -- would be at issue in any western democracies. This talk of a "forgiveness effort" and the like is pretty weird and a bit disturbing, honestly, neither of which makes it unlikely to occur.

Fair points, 425, and a reasoned view. I will try to respond and keep it as brief as possible.

In my profession I've had to learn more about virus spread than I would ever have imagined. Because of my age and professional position...hey, we all get our turn in the last decade of our career...I've had to lead a good sized company, council a bunch of fortune 500-ish companies (mostly in the entertainment industry, since I'm in Los Angeles) and chastise the bishop of my denomination for his ignorance in structuring his first conference-wide service following the emergence of covid. Others are welcome to carry what ever opinions they wish, but mine are based on science. I could give you a pile of engineering and scientific references. Long story short, it was known in February that this stuff infects airborne...that airborne is a greater threat than contact (mostly because contact is much easier to manage)...that there are physical efforts we can undertake to mitigate (not eliminate, but significantly reduce) spread in buildings...and that our personal behavior is the single biggest factor in mitigating spread. Unfortunately, that was recognized in Asia a couple of months before it was recognized in the west. Given their recent history with SARS, that is not a surprise, but it is a fact. We had a lot of conflicting advice from "leadership" until about the 3rd week of April. Since then, all the scientific and engineering associations have pretty much been in alignment in their recognition of the facts. All the details are NOT known...while the concepts are understood, the absolute magnitude of the effectiveness of various measures is not. But the general magnitudes and trends are known. Masks are a key element, but far from the only thing. Masks have become the lightning rod because (and thoughts on this issue are the only non-technical opinion I'll offer in this post) they are individually visible and due to various religious and political figures deciding that personal responsibility does not fit their business model, they have become a signpost for political and religious affiliation. Add that to our American right to be unconcerned about others and you have the current situation. I bemoan the impact on business and the economy, which could have been significantly avoided had people not been more concerned about themselves than others. I bemoan even more the lives cut short by the pandemic and the way so many have aided, rather than hindered, its spread. My frustration is intense. Just today I had to chew out one of my partners and his subordinate for the meeting they were having in the subordinates cube without masks. "They forgot". How the heck do you forget that after all this time?

We knew all this in the US by late April. Or rather, the information was widely available and understood by those who made an effort. If you are interested or curious, send me a PM and I'll get you some references. And yes, those of us who understand the science and have been frustrated in our efforts to improve the situation will harbor a lot of animosity when this is past. I am speaking for myself as well as others. And the only course of action that I can see to try to ameliorate the situation is a concerted effort to forgive; and hope that a combination of a desire to forgive and emotional exhaustion will permit us to move on.

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

You have assumed that citizens of a number of western or developed countries have the same or at least similar civil liberties as we have in the United States and that the powers of their governments are restricted in the same or a similar way as the United States. That is called false equivalency. Perhaps you have forgotten that our forefathers revolted and fought a war over those things. I understand that you are declining to compare those countries to the United States and simply assume that all such things are the same.

Please continue your nonsensical lectures about “proper argumentation.”

Regarding the Constitution, this is off the top of my head: privileges and immunities, due process and First Amendment. Feel free to look them up and read all about them. I will just point out this- with the virus surging there is no ban on interstate travel. I mean real bans as in you go to jail or pay a fine, not threats, not public shaming, not guidelines, not elected officials staking pretty please. That kind of stuff happens in the UK and former empire colonies.

I haven't assumed anything because you failed to clarify what exactly you meant by "open" society. That's why i asked you about Australia and then Canada and Japan. Again...do you NOT consider these "open" societies? Please, oh please, try to follow along. Hope this helps....I REALLY do! That's all I have to say about that.

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

So, a CNN legal contributor doesn’t think a national mask mandate would fly. I am assuming that network is something you consider authoritative. So if a mask is a no-no, how do you think banning interstate travel and forced quarantine will fair?

Fact Check: Can the President enact a nationwide mask mandate?

In "Under Control," a new campaign ad set to air on digital and TV nationally, former Vice President Joe Biden lays out the toplines of his plan to tackle Covid-19.

www.google.com

Would need more context than your readers digest version. Was that conclusion based on a rights infringement, or practicality.

Who said anything about a forced quarantine or banning interstate travel? Please, oh please, show where I suggested that. Reading comprehension much?

 

[dgibbons]

I haven't assumed anything because you failed to clarify what exactly you meant by "open" society. That's why i asked you about Australia and then Canada and Japan. Again...do you NOT consider these "open" societies? Please, oh please, try to follow along. Hope this helps....I REALLY do! That's all I have to say about that.

I guess I assumed that you (and others) understood that different countries have different laws. And since the context of this conversation was domestic until you turned it international, that you (and others) would think I was referring to the United States. My mistake.

If you’re being indefinitely detained in Australia how open is that society?

How is the civil liberties comparison coming?

 

[dgibbons]

Would need more context than your readers digest version. Was that conclusion based on a rights infringement, or practicality.

Who said anything about a forced quarantine or banning interstate travel? Please, oh please, show where I suggested that. Reading comprehension much?

Are you ignorant of the restrictions being imposed in Australia and other countries, civil liberties in the United States, both, or more? False equivalence is improper argumentation.

Apparently you don’t know that states within Australia have prohibited interstate travel, several times. Queensland was closed for several months. At the same time you won’t accept that is impossible here. A simple concept for your simple mind- if the restrictions being imposed in Australia are legal here why aren’t they being imposed here?

 

[425cougfan]

Fair points, 425, and a reasoned view. I will try to respond and keep it as brief as possible.

In my profession I've had to learn more about virus spread than I would ever have imagined. Because of my age and professional position...hey, we all get our turn in the last decade of our career...I've had to lead a good sized company, council a bunch of fortune 500-ish companies (mostly in the entertainment industry, since I'm in Los Angeles) and chastise the bishop of my denomination for his ignorance in structuring his first conference-wide service following the emergence of covid. Others are welcome to carry what ever opinions they wish, but mine are based on science. I could give you a pile of engineering and scientific references. Long story short, it was known in February that this stuff infects airborne...that airborne is a greater threat than contact (mostly because contact is much easier to manage)...that there are physical efforts we can undertake to mitigate (not eliminate, but significantly reduce) spread in buildings...and that our personal behavior is the single biggest factor in mitigating spread. Unfortunately, that was recognized in Asia a couple of months before it was recognized in the west. Given their recent history with SARS, that is not a surprise, but it is a fact. We had a lot of conflicting advice from "leadership" until about the 3rd week of April. Since then, all the scientific and engineering associations have pretty much been in alignment in their recognition of the facts. All the details are NOT known...while the concepts are understood, the absolute magnitude of the effectiveness of various measures is not. But the general magnitudes and trends are known. Masks are a key element, but far from the only thing. Masks have become the lightning rod because (and thoughts on this issue are the only non-technical opinion I'll offer in this post) they are individually visible and due to various religious and political figures deciding that personal responsibility does not fit their business model, they have become a signpost for political and religious affiliation. Add that to our American right to be unconcerned about others and you have the current situation. I bemoan the impact on business and the economy, which could have been significantly avoided had people not been more concerned about themselves than others. I bemoan even more the lives cut short by the pandemic and the way so many have aided, rather than hindered, its spread. My frustration is intense. Just today I had to chew out one of my partners and his subordinate for the meeting they were having in the subordinates cube without masks. "They forgot". How the heck do you forget that after all this time?

We knew all this in the US by late April. Or rather, the information was widely available and understood by those who made an effort. If you are interested or curious, send me a PM and I'll get you some references. And yes, those of us who understand the science and have been frustrated in our efforts to improve the situation will harbor a lot of animosity when this is past. I am speaking for myself as well as others. And the only course of action that I can see to try to ameliorate the situation is a concerted effort to forgive; and hope that a combination of a desire to forgive and emotional exhaustion will permit us to move on.

Thanks -- I appreciate it and can see how your perspective is colored by experiences like that. What I don't understand, though, is what you're arguing for. Are you contending that if people wore masks in buildings earlier on a more routine basis, the impact on the economy would have been meaningfully different? I could see an argument there, but the spread in areas that had people inclined to be more compliant (i.e., blue states, since you have put this largely in political terms) has been as bad or worse than red states. I also think being indoors around other people, masks or not, is the primary issue here, which cuts against that argument. (I'm not saying masks don't work ... instead saying that extended indoor exposure, even with a face covering, seems to be the primary way this being spread, since most face coverings won't actually prevent the virus from being inhaled ... people aren't out there wearing KN95s or better routinely or wearing them properly.)

Perhaps the argument instead is that our political leadership could have prevented this ... but in every western democracy (especially those with meaningful international travel, so excluding, perhaps, small island nations), there was no stopping this. Similarly, the areas that were more locked down, as opposed to less locked down, couldn't stop it.

So, again, not trying to argue, and certainly not along political lines. I just don't understand what you're advocating. If it's forgiving particular morons who fervently refused to wear masks or something, OK. If it's forgiving a segment of society along political lines, or something -- as you seem to be getting at -- I think that's strange and, again, somewhat disturbing.

 

[dgibbons]

Fair points, 425, and a reasoned view. I will try to respond and keep it as brief as possible.

In my profession I've had to learn more about virus spread than I would ever have imagined. Because of my age and professional position...hey, we all get our turn in the last decade of our career...I've had to lead a good sized company, council a bunch of fortune 500-ish companies (mostly in the entertainment industry, since I'm in Los Angeles) and chastise the bishop of my denomination for his ignorance in structuring his first conference-wide service following the emergence of covid. Others are welcome to carry what ever opinions they wish, but mine are based on science. I could give you a pile of engineering and scientific references. Long story short, it was known in February that this stuff infects airborne...that airborne is a greater threat than contact (mostly because contact is much easier to manage)...that there are physical efforts we can undertake to mitigate (not eliminate, but significantly reduce) spread in buildings...and that our personal behavior is the single biggest factor in mitigating spread. Unfortunately, that was recognized in Asia a couple of months before it was recognized in the west. Given their recent history with SARS, that is not a surprise, but it is a fact. We had a lot of conflicting advice from "leadership" until about the 3rd week of April. Since then, all the scientific and engineering associations have pretty much been in alignment in their recognition of the facts. All the details are NOT known...while the concepts are understood, the absolute magnitude of the effectiveness of various measures is not. But the general magnitudes and trends are known. Masks are a key element, but far from the only thing. Masks have become the lightning rod because (and thoughts on this issue are the only non-technical opinion I'll offer in this post) they are individually visible and due to various religious and political figures deciding that personal responsibility does not fit their business model, they have become a signpost for political and religious affiliation. Add that to our American right to be unconcerned about others and you have the current situation. I bemoan the impact on business and the economy, which could have been significantly avoided had people not been more concerned about themselves than others. I bemoan even more the lives cut short by the pandemic and the way so many have aided, rather than hindered, its spread. My frustration is intense. Just today I had to chew out one of my partners and his subordinate for the meeting they were having in the subordinates cube without masks. "They forgot". How the heck do you forget that after all this time?

We knew all this in the US by late April. Or rather, the information was widely available and understood by those who made an effort. If you are interested or curious, send me a PM and I'll get you some references. And yes, those of us who understand the science and have been frustrated in our efforts to improve the situation will harbor a lot of animosity when this is past. I am speaking for myself as well as others. And the only course of action that I can see to try to ameliorate the situation is a concerted effort to forgive; and hope that a combination of a desire to forgive and emotional exhaustion will permit us to move on.

How are you going to prove your innocence to the Covid Truth and Reconciliation Commission?

That’s about 55 percent sarcasm and 45 percent serious.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Biggs, the objective facts agree with your statement. But we will have to move on after the situation has passed. It is not too soon to think about how that will need to look in order to be successful as a society...regardless of the resentment that many of us will hold that stems from what the majority will view as selfishness by a not insignificant minority. As a Republican, I am both ashamed and dismayed that my party will bear the brunt of that for a while...and since the political pendulum is likely to swing wide, having been pushed pretty hard by this whole situation, I won't like some of the results. But my party deserves it, based on performance, and I can only hope that we will learn from the pain that is coming. We bounced back after Watergate, though it took someone as inept as Jimmy Carter to enable that recovery, and the party did in fact learn some things from its humbling. It will be interesting to see if history repeats in some ways. Ask me again in 8-10 years.

The level of contempt held towards one another is at a high not seen since the civil war, imo. I dont see an easy path, if any path, towards reconciliation. Both sides are dug in. There is no doubt in my mind I will see states leave the union in my lifetime. At this point, let them leave. Wave good bye. Im done with people shoving politics into every issue or in my face.

 

[NMBRCRNCHR]

How are you going to prove your innocence to the Covid Truth and Reconciliation Commission?

That’s about 55 percent sarcasm and 45 percent serious.

I know, I know...I'll leave our Christmas lights up until our entire house has been vaccinated, then everyone will know how righteous we are...that was the idea of one of our neighbors, I kid you not.

 

[Observer11]

The level of contempt held towards one another is at a high not seen since the civil war, imo. I dont see an easy path, if any path, towards reconciliation. Both sides are dug in. There is no doubt in my mind I will see states leave the union in my lifetime. At this point, let them leave. Wave good bye. Im done with people shoving politics into every issue or in my face.

Be careful what you wish for.

It was Cinderella who said ‘You don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone.’

Opposition is what balances the tyranny of the majority.

You will be assimilated.

 

[dgibbons]

This seems relevant to add to the discussion. Fauci has been lying about the level of vaccination needed to reach herd immunity. Apparently polling plays a role in the science.

I wonder what the Covid Truth and Reconciliation Commission will make of this?

Rubio criticizes Fauci for raising herd immunity estimate to 90 percent

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is criticizing the government’s top infectious diseases expert, Anthony Fauci, for raising his estimate for the U.S. to reach herd immunity on the coronavirus to up …

www.google.com

 

[79COUG]

You're going to see a lot of this (IF it's reported)...

Lincoln County Sheriff says initial interest in getting vaccinated against COVID appears 'low' among first responders

DAVENPORT - On Monday, Sheriff Wade Magers reported that the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine has arrived in Lincoln County. Magers revealed that, out the vast majority of the roughly 300 emergency

www.ifiberone.com

 

[KRUSTYtheCOUG]

Are you ignorant of the restrictions being imposed in Australia and other countries, civil liberties in the United States, both, or more? False equivalence is improper argumentation.

Apparently you don’t know that states within Australia have prohibited interstate travel, several times. Queensland was closed for several months. At the same time you won’t accept that is impossible here. A simple concept for your simple mind- if the restrictions being imposed in Australia are legal here why aren’t they being imposed here?

No, not ignorant at all. Well aware of what australia chose to do, the resistance they received, how long it took and the amount of money they poured into their economy to make it work. But that isn't the issue here.

In your above post you did finally acknowledge that when you said "open society" you were referring only to the uSA. I attempted to get you to clarify what you meant since you seemed uncomfortable classifying Canada, Australia or even Japan as open societies (which doesn't demand that they have exactly the same civil liberties as we do). So you could have saved half of this thread by simply being clearer when asked. Now that it's clear what you really meant was:

"What I am looking forward to is people acknowledging that there isn’t a way to stop the spread of a highly contagious respiratory virus in THE UNITED STATES".

then, as I already said near the beginning, I agree, not probably for the same reason as you but because Americans would never pull together with a sense of community responsibilty/duty.

If I've mischaracterized your position, please correct me. That's all I have to say about that.

 

[Coug90]

This seems relevant to add to the discussion. Fauci has been lying about the level of vaccination needed to reach herd immunity. Apparently polling plays a role in the science.

I wonder what the Covid Truth and Reconciliation Commission will make of this?

Rubio criticizes Fauci for raising herd immunity estimate to 90 percent

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is criticizing the government’s top infectious diseases expert, Anthony Fauci, for raising his estimate for the U.S. to reach herd immunity on the coronavirus to up …

www.google.com

You are a bright guy DGib. Ask yourself this. What motive does Dr. Fauci have for “Lying” about estimates on herd immunity? Think about it...herd immunity % for this is something that will never be fully known and can really only be roughly estimated. Now ask yourself this. What motive does Rubio have for calling Dr. Fauci a liar?

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Thanks -- I appreciate it and can see how your perspective is colored by experiences like that. What I don't understand, though, is what you're arguing for. Are you contending that if people wore masks in buildings earlier on a more routine basis, the impact on the economy would have been meaningfully different? I could see an argument there, but the spread in areas that had people inclined to be more compliant (i.e., blue states, since you have put this largely in political terms) has been as bad or worse than red states. I also think being indoors around other people, masks or not, is the primary issue here, which cuts against that argument. (I'm not saying masks don't work ... instead saying that extended indoor exposure, even with a face covering, seems to be the primary way this being spread, since most face coverings won't actually prevent the virus from being inhaled ... people aren't out there wearing KN95s or better routinely or wearing them properly.)

Perhaps the argument instead is that our political leadership could have prevented this ... but in every western democracy (especially those with meaningful international travel, so excluding, perhaps, small island nations), there was no stopping this. Similarly, the areas that were more locked down, as opposed to less locked down, couldn't stop it.

So, again, not trying to argue, and certainly not along political lines. I just don't understand what you're advocating. If it's forgiving particular morons who fervently refused to wear masks or something, OK. If it's forgiving a segment of society along political lines, or something -- as you seem to be getting at -- I think that's strange and, again, somewhat disturbing.

425, I apologize for any lack of clarity. I have two primary regrets, both of which we can improve on for the next 6 months. If I could ask for two things, these would be the things upon which we could improve. And it is still not too late to cut down on unnecessary deaths going forward, though we've fumbled some of this and cut a lot of lives short to this point that would not have been cut short with different behavior.

The first is people's unwillingness to postpone family gatherings; or skirt lockdown rules with business meetings...whether at holidays or any other occasion...and as a result have a concentrated group of people indoors for prolonged periods. Airborne exposure is primarily time, dose and density related. Masks cut dose and extend the time involved before exposure for a given people density in a confined space. If a bunch of folks are crowded into an elevator car, even with masks, no sneezes and no touching, exposure is a relatively quick thing. In a large room with only a few people it is a whole different ball game, and the likely time to exposure is much longer. Family gatherings that involve eating & drinking automatically mean no masks, at least during the meal(s). In cold weather these gatherings are typically indoors and of long duration. That is pouring gasoline on spread. Outdoors with distance; or in a barn-like structure without a lot of crowding; or in rooms specifically designed to avoid lateral airborne spread; is not too bad. Indoors for hours, especially with eating and drinking is a guarantee that if anyone shows up who is contagious, many more will be infected. This first item is within the direct control of us all. Yes, masks are important, but the context in which they are used is an even bigger deal.

The second is our lack of political leadership to this point (both parties). Churchill's blood, toil, tears and sweat speech (and his actions that followed) is a very good example of political leadership at a time of crisis. Britain at the time was hardly united, and there was a noisy fringe group that advocated simply giving up. Churchill had to rally the populace to a common purpose that would involve sacrifice. Regrettably, the closest we got to that kind of effort was from a couple of governors. Churchill was a man for his time. We had no such man. Without someone who was at least minimally truthful and competent at understanding the issue and rallying the populace, we ended up with a medical, scientific and engineering issue that became a political and religious football and a business catastrophe. This second issue is not within our direct control at the political level, so it makes visibly standing up for what is right and advocating what needs to be done on a personal level important (in a non-hypocritical way; if you are not willing to walk the talk yourself, then don't talk). The failure to walk the talk himself is what sunk Newsome in his efforts (one example). You can't condemn gatherings, then meet colleagues in a restaurant for hours in a small room if you want to maintain credibility. And without credibility, you can't lead.

Long story short, wear masks; avoid gatherings of folks that you don't live with regularly; stay out of confined situations that involve people density, unless the confined space was designed specifically for the purpose; don't be intimidated by those who don't wish to be inconvenienced; and recognize that our collective actions will either reduce or increase (up to us) the deaths in our community. It is pretty much that simple. Your chances of getting into an ICU in LA County right now if you need it are still pretty good if you can wait 12-24 hours. Until then you circle in your ambulance or lay on a gurney in the lobby. Ventilator availability is worse than that. This is no joke.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

How are you going to prove your innocence to the Covid Truth and Reconciliation Commission?

That’s about 55 percent sarcasm and 45 percent serious.

Gib, though we don't always agree I respect your intellect, and understand your point. The issue as I've tried to think about this is whether the process will be handled like the inquisition...or maybe the French revolution trials...or more like the Northern Ireland negotiations following the Mother's March. You put your finger on what is probably the stickiest issue; what process will be followed? The more formalized, the more likely to go the way of a show trial. Where it has been successful, societal forgiveness has been a choice by both sides to give up resentment in favor of moving ahead in a way that is better for the children. I'd like to think we can do that. It will be harder without leadership. Either way, though, we have to advocate at our own level and be willing to forgive if we ask that of others.

 

[dgibbons]

You are a bright guy DGib. Ask yourself this. What motive does Dr. Fauci have for “Lying” about estimates on herd immunity? Think about it...herd immunity % for this is something that will never be fully known and can really only be roughly estimated. Now ask yourself this. What motive does Rubio have for calling Dr. Fauci a liar?

Fauci lied about masks because of fear the hospitals would run out of PPE. He lied about the vaccine level because he didn't think the American people could handle the truth about the level of vaccination needed to reach herd immunity, and because no one knew how effective the vaccines would be. If the vaccines were say That's not his role. He's not an elected official.

And although this article leads with Rubio's criticism (cause tweetstorms are cool I guess), it's the substance of the article that's important. Polling somehow is science? Really? Ultimately, Fauci made the choice to undermine his own credibility. Why should anyone believe him?

 

[dgibbons]

No, not ignorant at all. Well aware of what australia chose to do, the resistance they received, how long it took and the amount of money they poured into their economy to make it work. But that isn't the issue here.

In your above post you did finally acknowledge that when you said "open society" you were referring only to the uSA. I attempted to get you to clarify what you meant since you seemed uncomfortable classifying Canada, Australia or even Japan as open societies (which doesn't demand that they have exactly the same civil liberties as we do). So you could have saved half of this thread by simply being clearer when asked. Now that it's clear what you really meant was:

"What I am looking forward to is people acknowledging that there isn’t a way to stop the spread of a highly contagious respiratory virus in THE UNITED STATES".

then, as I already said near the beginning, I agree, not probably for the same reason as you but because Americans would never pull together with a sense of community responsibilty/duty.

If I've mischaracterized your position, please correct me. That's all I have to say about that.

So, you're not doing an analysis of civil liberties in different countries? I suspect if you were being detained indefinitely in Australia for suspicion of a crime (that's suspicion not conviction), which is perfectly legal, I doubt you would consider it an open society. Since, you know, you couldn't leave. But sure, all western and developed societies are the same. Totally.